Black apalachi overshadowed by Mccoy???

dave180

Hey guys .
iv Been following blacdk apalachi for a while now and i think he is a fantastic horse. He ran fantastic in the grand national on saturday only hit the 3rd last hard and denis o regan had to take a bit out of him to recover and other than that its my opinion that he would have won the national. if you look at the beecher chase that he won he sprinter home over the last fence and he is just a fantastic stayer . He ran his race fantastic and i think the win of mccoy has overshadowed his fantastic performance and i dont think its right. I believe over all he ran a far better race that Dont push it and it was the weight that told on him in the end. I know he came second but in my opinion his overall race performance was far better than dont push it as mccoy hit a few fences hard and only for black apalachis blunder at the 28th he wouldnt have caught him. does anyone agree??

UrbanSea

I think McCoy would have got to him even if he didnt hit the 28th. I know it can and has been done but front running for 4 mile 4 isnt going to be easy,and especially when McCoy is on the challenger,and looking for his frist win in the race.
I have to disagree with one part. The horse that runs the best race is the horse that wins. You say he lost because of his weight,but that's what a handicap race is. Backers of Black Apalachi and any other horse in the field knew well before the off that there would be lower weighted horses than theirs,apart from bottom weight.

dave180

dessie hughes the trainer said that when he hit the 3rd last o regan had 2 squeeze him up to get him back infront and that took alot out of him and that if he had hav saved some petrol in the tank for when he landed over the last he couldv well won but we will never know ! do you think he will have a chance next year as a 12 year old?

UrbanSea

It's hard to say looking back aswell. For all we know if he had cleared that one he may have hit another. I wouldn't be able to say,he's capable obviously but wouldn't be easy.

dave180

DID YOU HAVE THE WINNER YOURSELF? I HAD BLACK APALACHI AND IRISH RAPTOR E/W SO AT LEAST I GOT SOMETHING BACK HA

Morgans

Don't push it made just as bad a mistake 4 out. Top class effort from Black Apalachi but not an unlucky loser for me.

I still think that last year was his year and was very very unlucky for O"Regan to slide off him at Bechers - very soft unseat. Mon Mome won very well and has proven himself a good winner but it was Black Apalachi's to lose.

McCoy deserves all the praise he gets after the race.

Mick Fitz once again showed how much of a pleb he is in the BBC review of the race, saying that the horses in front were going miles too quick and it was inevitable that they would fall away - the two horses being Conna Castle and Black Apalachi.

mdwexford

Your opinion is wrong tbh.

He was only giving Dont Push It 1lb and got beaten reasonably convincingly, he was not far better than DPI and there is no argument to suggest otherwise.

dave180

I agree with you morgans . Black apalachi is a class front running four mile stayer and there was no way he was going to falk back. Im biased tho coz i love the horse ha

krustydoyle

Morgans wrote: »

Don't push it made just as bad a mistake 4 out. Top class effort from Black Apalachi but not an unlucky loser for me.

I still think that last year was his year and was very very unlucky for O"Regan to slide off him at Bechers - very soft unseat. Mon Mome won very well and has proven himself a good winner but it was Black Apalachi's to lose.

McCoy deserves all the praise he gets after the race.

Mick Fitz once again showed how much of a pleb he is in the BBC review of the race, saying that the horses in front were going miles too quick and it was inevitable that they would fall away - the two horses being Conna Castle and Black Apalachi.

dave180 wrote: »

I agree with you morgans . Black apalachi is a class front running four mile stayer and there was no way he was going to falk back. Im biased tho coz i love the horse ha

Def agree with lads, hes a serious horse and i think he'll def go back next year despite been 12.

Colonel Sanders

dave180 wrote: »

i think the win of mccoy has overshadowed his fantastic performance and i dont think its right. I believe over all he ran a far better race that Dont push it and it was the weight that told on him in the end. I know he came second but in my opinion his overall race performance was far better than dont push it as mccoy hit a few fences hard and only for black apalachis blunder at the 28th he wouldnt have caught him. does anyone agree??

This is a strange comment

dave180 wrote: »

i think the win of mccoy has overshadowed his fantastic performance and i dont think its right.

Black Apalachi ran a tremendous race and was a sight to behold out in front jumping for fun. However the bottom line is that Don't Push It won the race! And he seemed to have a bit more up his sleeve if challanged again (IMO of course)

dave180 wrote: »

I believe over all he ran a far better race that Dont push it and it was the weight that told on him in the end.

The placing tell a different story and he was only conceeding 1lb to Don't Push It

dave180 wrote: »

in my opinion his overall race performance was far better than dont push it as mccoy hit a few fences hard and only for black apalachis blunder at the 28th he wouldnt have caught him.

So you say DPI made more than one mistake (against Black Apalachi's one), he was well on top at the finish and you think Black Apalachi's performance was superior? I'm struggling to join the dots here

dave180 wrote: »

does anyone agree??

I can't imagine so

dave180

i just think that hes a far superior horse than dont push it and deserved to win. he ran with a pound heavier weight , he dictated the pace of the race virtually from the start moving at a much better pace than mccoy , he cleared every fence bar 1 without even grazing them ( and lets not forget he didnt have the benefit of jumping a smaller fence because ther was 6 or 7 horses infront of him which lowered the height like what mccoy had from the start ) and they jumped the last together and mccoy went ahead and even after the pace he had gone in teh race he still had enuff left 2 cum bak at him again on the straight but then mccoy squeezed it and pulled infront of him. i just think the race was stolen from the most prolific and best jumper iv ever seen over the national fences and i hope hes remembered for his efforts.

Nulty

BTW,

McCoy jumped on the scales and they were landing on 11-6 more than 11-5 so it may have been evens for all we know.

Plus dave, I don't know what you want to hear here. BA lost, thats that. He wasn't the better horse in the last race I saw.

larsson7

Just on the BA coming back next year or even DPI for that matter.
From what Harry Findlay said after Gold Cup I think we'll def see Denman in this next year if its still well by then.
Not sure on ratings but BA would prob be running off about 10st 3lbs and Denman carrying 12 stone? not sure if it goes up to 12 stone in national but you get what I'm saying.
So a front running performance off that weight all be it against the might of Denman and it may still have another chance.
Plus Denman running will see horses like Notre Pere and the like fancying there chances off a raceable weight.
Long way to GN 2011 but fascinating already!

dave180

why would they drop black apalachis weight next year when he came second this year? last year he fell at bechers and they put his weight up . . . i dont get the whole weight thing anyway ??? why will they drop him weight next year???????????

Morgans

Black Apalachi missed his chance. You will be wasting your money next year.
He was beaten fair and square on Saturday.

And he is not the most natural jumper of the national fences ever.

If any neutrals werent turned on to the joys of National Hunt by Frankie Figg's performance in the Topham, no horse will. One of the very very best that I've seen in 20+ years.

RichieLawlor

dave180 wrote: »

why would they drop black apalachis weight next year when he came second this year? last year he fell at bechers and they put his weight up . . . i dont get the whole weight thing anyway ??? why will they drop him weight next year???????????

Ok I'll bite I suppose.

In a Handicap race (like the national) horses are allocated weight according to there official rating which in theory is supposed to give each horse an equal chance of winning.

Black Apalachi is currently rated 157, so if he is the highest rated horse in the race he will get top weight of 11 stone 10. If a horse runs off 140 then his weight will be 17lbs less than BA.

Black Apalachi on 157, Denman is on 182 which means on ratings Denman is 25lbs superior on all known form. If BA was forced to run off level weights against Denman then he won't be turning up.

So with Denman carrying 11st10lbs then BA would only have to carry 9st13lbs as opposed to 11st6lbs or whatever it was this year.

Nulty

RichieLawlor wrote: »

Ok I'll bite I suppose.

In a Handicap race (like the national) horses are allocated weight according to there official rating which in theory is supposed to give each horse an equal chance of winning.

Black Apalachi is currently rated 157, so if he is the highest rated horse in the race he will get top weight of 11 stone 10. If a horse runs off 140 then his weight will be 17lbs less than BA.

Black Apalachi on 157, Denman is on 182 which means on ratings Denman is 25lbs superior on all known form. If BA was forced to run off level weights against Denman then he won't be turning up.

So with Denman carrying 11st10lbs then BA would only have to carry 9st13lbs as opposed to 11st6lbs or whatever it was this year.

Just adding..

9st13lbs in theory but in reality he would be "out of the handicap" because the minimum weight in national hunt is 10st so BA would be carrying an extra pound that he technically doesn't deserve

Morgans

Nulty wrote: »

Just adding..

9st13lbs in theory but in reality he would be "out of the handicap" because the minimum weight in national hunt is 10st so BA would be carrying an extra pound that he technically doesn't deserve

Yeah. The theory is correct. Denman wouldnt be racing in the Grand National off 182 either. Something closer to 175 or 176 I would think.

RichieLawlor

Morgans wrote: »

Yeah. The theory is correct. Denman wouldnt be racing in the Grand National off 182 either. Something closer to 175 or 176 I would think.

Not neccesarily, if he comes out and wins the hennessy of 182 there's no chance of Phil Smith letting him run in the national off 175.

Then you have to figure a host of high 160 animals will run due to being down the handicap instead of top weight in a normal year. They entry will be stronger therefore I don't think it's impossible Denman may run off 180+ in the 2011 GN

Morgans

Leave him win the hennessey first, before making that assumption.

The facts are that to entice Denman to run, he will allow him to be well in on his official weight. I certainly dont think there is any improvement left in the horse. And I dont think his presence would make any difference to the standard of the grand national field.

What horses would have been enticed to run this year if Denman was in the race?

UrbanSea

If Denman carries top weight in the Hennessy next year which I'm sure he would if he runs,I couldn't see him winning it again. The old denman would have blown IP away in the Gold Cup,I'd be surprised to see him running off 180+ but Richie you could be very well right aswell.

Morgans

greetings wrote: »

The old denman would have blown IP away in the Gold Cup.

Lack of evidence for this I'm afraid. Pretty sure all ratings organisations would say the same. I'm assuming that IP = Imperial Commander.

It is great that a horse who has won 1 out of his last 6 races still has such a devoted following.

larsson7

Morgans wrote: »

Black Apalachi missed his chance. You will be wasting your money next year.
He was beaten fair and square on Saturday.

And he is not the most natural jumper of the national fences ever.

If any neutrals werent turned on to the joys of National Hunt by Frankie Figg's performance in the Topham, no horse will. One of the very very best that I've seen in 20+ years.

So Black Apalachi wont have a chance at bottom weight if Denman runs?
As is expected to happen btw.
I wouldn't be so sure, jumped majority of them soundly and will be that much easier to jump with a lower weight. Dennis O Regan would never made 10 stone would he though? Would rule out a fair few of them

Morgans

Would love to see him do it, and he'd have some chance. That goes beyond saying, but as a 12 year old his best chances of winning the National are behind him. He isnt going to get any better. Shame as I thought he was brilliantly trained for both the last two years. I think if it was a bog on Saturday he'd probably have won.

Its clear from his races that the weight he carries has no effect on his jumping ability. Carrying 11-5 or 10-0 isnt going to improve his jumping.

There is a lot of water to go under the bridge before Denman lines up in the national. Last week connections were gung-ho about him winning the Scotttish National off top weight. People are very quick with assumptions on this forum.

larsson7

Punchestowns (FR)
Carruthers (GB)
Fix The Rib (IRE)
Diamond Harry (GB)
Calgary Bay (IRE)
Gwanako (FR)
Tricky Trickster (IRE)
Weird Al (IRE)
Or Noir de Somoza (FR)
Planet of Sound (GB)
Barbers Shop (GB)
Silver By Nature (GB)
Herecomesthetruth (IRE)
Imsingingtheblues (IRE)
Tazbar (IRE)
Jack The Giant (IRE)
Killyglen (IRE)
Inchidaly Rock (IRE)
Mad Max (IRE)
Shining Gale (IRE)
Albertas Run (IRE)
Deep Purple (GB)
Voy Por Ustedes (FR)
Nacarat (FR)
Taranis (FR)
Tidal Bay (IRE)
Madison du Berlais (FR)
Master Medic (IRE)
The Tother One (IRE)
Niche Market (IRE)
Money Trix (IRE)
Dont Push It (IRE)
Gungadu (GB)
The Listener (IRE)
Monets Garden (IRE)
Our Vic (IRE)

Just a quick list of the top rated chase horses, some are 2 milers etc but I'm sure many would fancy a chance at the national at a raceable weight.

Denman is def not going to win a Gold Cup again so all going well it should hopefully go for this.

Morgans

I'm sorry but that list is just, i'm sorry. Facepalm.

From novices, to injured horses, at least one dead animal, to horses that already ran in the national, to horses that struggle to stay 2m4f, to horses that ran in and will run in other Aintree races, to horses who's owners have said that they would never run in the Grand National.

The silliness on here amuses me.

UrbanSea

Morgans wrote: »

Lack of evidence for this I'm afraid. Pretty sure all ratings organisations would say the same. I'm assuming that IP = Imperial Commander.

It is great that a horse who has won 1 out of his last 6 races still has such a devoted following.

Ah I could be talking out of my soft spot for the horse,and I know there is a lack of evidence,but still believe it to be true.

larsson7

Morgans wrote: »

I'm sorry but that list is just, i'm sorry. Facepalm.

From novices, to injured horses, at least one dead animal, to horses that already ran in the national, to horses that struggle to stay 2m4f, to horses that ran in and will run in other Aintree races, to horses who's owners have said that they would never run in the Grand National.

The silliness on here amuses me.

I said it was just a list of top rated chasers, silliness is to be not able to read such I said some were 2 milers etc do I need to explain what I meant by that?
And whats wrong with Novices? Do second year chasers not run in the national? Very silly to think that next years GN will not see any of this years Novices! Well they do run in it, 2 Irish horses only spring to my mind so instead of Ballyholland and Whinstone Boy (know it didnt get in but so many wanted it too) with Denman in it perhaps Punchestown and Diamond Harry might go for it, what other major races will they have such a winning chance.
The other end of the scale. What will Barbers Shop win? No Denman its near top weight in the national with Denman about 10 stone 2lbs, the Queens horse with a great shout in the National :eek: Even your 2m4f horse Albertas Run may fancy it too.
There just a few from that silly list I couldnt be bothered editing as I taught ppl could take their own

UrbanSea

Denman 10 stn 2? What dya mean?Sorry it's late and drunken,if I'm missing an abvious point.

Morgans

larsson7 wrote: »

I said it was just a list of top rated chasers, silliness is to be not able to read such I said some were 2 milers etc do I need to explain what I meant by that?
And whats wrong with Novices? Do second year chasers not run in the national? Very silly to think that next years GN will not see any of this years Novices! Well they do run in it, 2 Irish horses only spring to my mind so instead of Ballyholland and Whinstone Boy (know it didnt get in but so many wanted it too) with Denman in it perhaps Punchestown and Diamond Harry might go for it, what other major races will they have such a winning chance.
The other end of the scale. What will Barbers Shop win? No Denman its near top weight in the national with Denman about 10 stone 2lbs, the Queens horse with a great shout in the National :eek: Even your 2m4f horse Albertas Run may fancy it too.
There just a few from that silly list I couldnt be bothered editing as I taught ppl could take their own

The silliness is dead horse Inchidaly Rock taking part. Probably retired horses like The Listener, Old Vic, Monet's Garden and Voy Por Ustedes, horses far far more likely to go for the Melling Chase and Betfair/Totesport Bowl. Or Noir de Samoza....

Your list just shows how few horses there are that would actually change their plans and go for the race on the assumption that Denman would turn up. Sacrifice their year hoping that Denman turns out sound on the Friday morning before the national.

RichieLawlor

I don't think Inchidaly Rock is dead

Morgans

Afraid so. Shame, was a real proper horse in the making.

Morgans

Just checked Paul Nicholls site to make sure, and afraid he is no longer in his horses in training list.

UrbanSea

I never heard that either. Pity,do you know what happened morgans?

UrbanSea

catmelodian wrote: »

He died.

Thank you for clarifying that,I couldn't break down Morgan's encryptic pists.

Morgans

greetings wrote: »

I never heard that either. Pity,do you know what happened morgans?

Nothing specific I'm afraid, but what I read was that he damaged a shoulder at Newbury.