Aintree Thursday

Colonel Sanders

2.00 Bgc Partners Liverpool Hurdle

Looks at the mercy of Big Bucks who was mighty impressive at Cheltenham. However isn't a working man's price.

Interestingly all winners of this race so far have won at the meeting before so good news for Tidal Bay fans in a hurry to forgive his World Hurdle Flop

Possol could out run his odds (40/1 with Ladbrokes who go 1/4 the odds) but with Time For Rupert a non runner (was gonna be an each way against the jolly) no bet for me

2.35 Matalan Anniversary 4-y-o Novices' Hurdle

Sanctuaire made Phil Smith look an absolute tool in the Fred Winter and comes here having not even broken sweat in that race. The favourite has won each running since this became a grade 1 and he has a favourites chance, however 2/1 is skinny enough

Super Kenny seems to be priced up on reputation, having been a major ante post Triumph gamble, while Barizan had a very hard rave just 20 days ago

I think Me Voice could be interesting here as an each way alternative to the worthy favourite. Beat Sang Bleu (who has won an egg and spoon race since) 10l in the finale on testing ground. Followed up impressively next time (although not sure how good a race that was)

3.10 Totesport Bowl Chase

Revolves around Imperial Commander. Corals have put him in 11/10 which could look enormous after the race. The obvious worry is that its 20 days since the Gold Cup over 3m 2 on soft-ish ground and sometimes horses struggle to repeat next time out after a tremendous performance. I'll probably duck this one but will be hoping he wins. Interesting comment from his owner on the Betfair forum

My thoughts are I would rather he was in a field in Ireland - I agreed with the trainer that we would listen to the horse who has done himself no favours. He was stiff when he first cantered but has bounced ever since and schooled brilliantly. On that basis and on the basis there is no ground risk we take our chances. Paddy will not be hard on him at all - he will be allowed to go out and enjoy himself, and if he isn't he will be pulled up.

The Mildmay course is not my favourite, it is tighter than most punters realise and suits smaller more agile types - I cannot see a betting angle in the race - if IC ran to anything like his ability then he would win, but a hard Gold Cup, the nature of the track and the fact that he will not be treated harshly are negatives. Two of the other runners had a hard race in the Gold Cup - not sure WAF will enjoy the track anymore than IC.

3.45 John Smith's Fox Hunters' Chase

No real opinion to be honest but Baby Run had a very hard race in the Foxhunters as Cheltenham

4.20 Alder Hey Imagine Appeal Red Rum Handicap Chase

Novices have been the ones to follow in ths and Pigeon Island goes for the Grand Annual/Red Rum double that both Fota Island & Oh Crick landed. Gone up 8lbs for his win, I wouldn't be in a hurry to back him as he hasn't looked a natural over fences and is a very in and out horse

Safari Journey was actually dropped 1lb after his run in the Grand Annual. May well prefer slightly better ground but looks reasonably solid on the trends

4.55 Totepool Manifesto Novices' Chase

A good race but a tricky betting contest. Disappointing that Copper Bleu doesn't take his chance

Somersby ran a cracker in the Arkle and looks to be crying out for a trip

Mad Max was surely booked for a place when making a horrendous blunder at the 2nd last. Trip should be OK but I just think Somersby is a better horse

The Nightingale has been deliberately kept for this but I'm not sure he's quite as classy as the first 2 I've mentioned

Hey Big Spender was travelling really well when coming down in the Jewson but has a bit to find on ratings and there seems to have been a few quid at big prices for Othermix

I'll be leaving this one alone

5.30 Silver Cross Handicap Hurdle

Not a fan of handicap hurdles and have barely looked at this race

deewhy

On the way over in the morning but first glance I would go:

2.00

No real bet but will back Bouggler without BB on the basis it won the novice event here last year.

2.35

Notus De La Tour on the basis of a favourable weight swing and a bit of cut in the ground.

3.10

Very interesting quotes - thanks for that. Was also going to steer clear but What a Friend has won the lexus with some give in the ground and has some value.

3.45

Agree Baby Run had tough race - 2 for me are Having a Cut - ran well here last year and Nedzers Return. Trust Fund won this well last year but I will stick with Irelands enteries here.

4.20

I took Consligliere out of C'ham as I think hill beat him but am worried about weight. Agree Safari Journey which was well supported in Cham has a good chance but will stick with Consigliere. Enlightenment at a big price could go well.

4.55

Somersby for me - if he is to be a Gold Cup horse he needs to be winning these tests.

5.30

I am a big fan of these races and my bet of the day will be Silverhand. Ran really well on the flat, bought by JP and ran a cracker in C'ham when very badly impeded at the 3rd last when coming with a winning chance. Should like the ground. Only negative is the form of Meade's horses.

I also like the exactas as they pay well and I will reverse this with Honest John which won the bumper at this festival two years ago.

Lets hope Aintree is significantly better for us all than Cheltenham. Best of luck.

westlife2010

Flying over at 7.30am....

2.00: Bouggler (winner at the meet last year) without the jolly. 20/1 each way with Boyles looks interesting. Ground and track will make this easier for him...

2.35: Sanctuaire (nap)

3.10: Nacarat & What A Friend in reverse f/c.......
Hope McCoy doesn't get Nac into a battle with Carruthers early on. Nac could jump them silly. From a betting point of view I have a real problem with all the stuff the connections are coming out with about Imperial. Unless he is in a position at the business end of the race to win, I believe that he would not be subjected to a hard race. If I wr on betfair and felt like laying IC in the race I would lay him in the place market at around 1.3.-1.5...first 2.

3.45 Baby run had a very hard race at chelt but i think the hunter chase section this year is the poorest standard i have ever seen. BR jumps well and i think the 2m 6f will suit him even better than chelt.... Baby Run (nb)

4.20: Consigliere looked to be all over a winner at chelt but found nothing off the bridle. My first opinion was that liverpool would suit him much better but I have looked at a few of his previous runs and I think am not as confidentabout him. Chapoturgeon will appreciate the drop to 2m and also the lower rating.... will like the drying ground and will be put asleep by Murphy in mid div before getting into it before the straight. Chapo for me.....will win on the bridle

4.55: Cant look beyond Somersby. Looks to be crying out for the trip. Won't have the giant Mad Max. MM should like the ground but I think they will try switch him off over the 2 and a half miles and I think this monster (or the jockey) will struggle to settle. Think The Nightingale is the danger

5.30: easy 'get out' stakes:( Sir Tantillus Hawk. Won 2 races on good ground in 09 and looked back to his best last time out... 25/1 in places looks a nice e/w bet


Good luck everyone....

Big Daddy Cool

only 2 bets tomorrow, 3.45 nedzers return and 4.20 chapoturgeon

Goldcupfav

2.00 Tidal Bay
2.35 Super Kenny
3.10 Nacarat (nb)
3.45 Moncadou
4.20 Oiseau De Nuit
4.55 The Nightingale (Nap)
5.30 Sir Harry Ormesher

mdwexford

What A Friend and Somersby are the two that interest me tomorrow.
Looks a high class card, looking forward to it.

Nulty

No time to look closely but heres my picks

2.00 Big Buck's Can't see it happening
2.35 Me Voici Like this horse and connection but goes in soft ground (G1)
3.10 What a Friend Carr and Nac fight for lead, IC @ Aintree? What a friend made it round Leopardstown in soft
3.45 Nedzers Return
4.20 Pigeon Island can't see anything else, maybe Nikola
4.55 Somersby Best horse but tough run at Cheltenham, Nightingale to pick up the piecs
5.30 Tara Royale To take another big step up

GampDub

Souffleur in the 2.00 w/o BB... has won over course and distance! Plus Beat both Kayf Aramis and Bouggler over distance back in Feb!!!

Morgans

I think the Foxhunters is between Baby Run and Trust Fund. I think they are a good way clear of the rest. I dont think the irish are next or near their standard. I've done a reverse forecast. Christy Beamish has done me a few favours in the past but unable to win last year, unlikely he can turn tables with TF this year.

Imperial Commander is too big. I know the dangers but I think he is too big a price for a horse so far clear on form.

I've been very impressed with The Nightingale, and I think he can hare around the course. Somersby the obvious danger.

Morgans

If you dont learn from history....

Great placing from Nicholls to get the two Grade 1's out of What A Friend. Liked the horse since he beat Carruthers in his novice chase at Uttoxeter at the start of last year. More than a bit of a monkey.

Colonel Sanders

No cash in my Betfair account thank god. When Imperial hit 2.6 I'd have backed him as I thought it was just too big about a horse who had so much in hand on ratings. The owner comment I posted above looks even starker now

Morgans

Just when you think Twiston-Davies has learned something about not overracing his horses. My own fault for getting involved.

My first impressions was that the Gold Cup must have been a murderous race. And it could have emptied a lot of horses. The collateral form of Carruthers and What A Friend suggests that the Gold Cup was as strong a renewal as the figures suggest.

Colonel Sanders

Imperial flopped at Punchestown last year after his Ryanair win (fair enough it was on a right handed track). This year he's turned out 20 days after turning in a 180+ performance over 3m 2f on softish ground. Not a good omen for Baby Run who had a brutal race in the Foxhunters. I'm also not 100% convinced NTD will avoid the King George with Imperial Commander next year. If I trained him it would be Betfair Chase, maybe a pipe opener shortly after Xmas (maybe even over hurdles) or else straight to Cheltenham

Morgans

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

Imperial flopped at Punchestown last year after his Ryanair win (fair enough it was on a right handed track). This year he's turned out 20 days after turning in a 180+ performance over 3m 2f on softish ground. Not a good omen for Baby Run who had a brutal race in the Foxhunters. I'm also not 100% convinced NTD will avoid the King George with Imperial Commander next year. If I trained him it would be Betfair Chase, maybe a pipe opener shortly after Xmas (maybe even over hurdles) or else straight to Cheltenham

Yeah. I knew the dangers going in. Thought 6/4 was too big. Silliness. If Kauto Star can lose in it to Our Vic, the race just comes too close for Gold Cup winners.

Yeah. Ive done Baby Run and a reverse f/c with Trust Fund. (before Nick Luck informed RUK viewers that Trust Fund had a 11 hour scare) Baby Run is the type for the race - up in front out of trouble, has won over 2m at the track (Mildmay) as a novice and hopefully he can take his racing better than Imperial. He did last year.

Morgans

Tough day. Baby Run didnt like being taken on. Tried to match Van Ness over the fence that he unseated at. Trust Fund going backwards when falling. Proper incident-packed race over the National fences. Hope all horses/jockeys are ok.

Lammtarra

Doctor David, The Nightingale and Wishfull Thinking for me.

Colonel Sanders

Morgans wrote: »

Thought 6/4 was too big.

I was in work so only had access to the Betfair app on my phone. Had I funds in it I'd have backed it at 2.6

Colonel Sanders

Some interesting comments from IC's owner on the Betfair forum. Thread is on the Ante Post forum and is entitled 'Bobby Dazzler......'

Bobby Dazzler wrote: »

He is stiff and sore, but doesnt seem to have suffered any lasting damage. Never really know until the stiffness wears off after two or three days.

Got it badly wrong I am afraid - not one of our finest moments and one we won't remember with any fondness. Three race campaign next year, regardless.

He will head the parade of champions at Sandown on Betfred day, and be back in Ireland two days later - large field of grass waiting.

Then about next season, King George looks to be an option again

Bobby Dazzler wrote: »

either the King George or the Lexus are the only options. The King George has not been his forte, but the timing is right, it is generally not a race that leaves many scars, whereas the Lexus on heavy ground could be a killer and you have got the ferry journey to cope with. We could just run him twice, but he takes a far bit of getting ready and keeping interested so that would be the unknown. The Lexus would hit his GC preparations if he needed an extended rest. In simple analysis his two runs in the King George might not have been memorable, but he won the Ryanair and the Gold Cup on the back of them. We have all summer to think about and discuss - please god he stays sound and we get as far as the Betfair Chase !

Asked then is The Pillar an option, too close to the festival

Bobby Dazzler wrote: »

Too close - after his first King George run he had the stable bug so we lost three weeks, and only just got him there for the Ryanair. In fairness it would have helped if we had got a racecourse gallop into him at Newbury, but when we got there the ground was too fast. This year the timing was perfect including his racecourse gallop which really seems to help - (He will have one before the Betfair Chase so should be much sharper hopefully). That is why the Lexus is a worry, as if he needed an extended lay off after a hard race the timings all go to pot.