UK Election Thread

oppenheimer1

Gordon Brown is due to call an election tomorrow, with polling to be on 6th May. As there are a good few of us here with a vote, myself included, it would be interesting to see what peoples opinions are.

Northern Ireland should turn a bit more interesting should the Conservatives have to depend on the UUP to get in. It could well cause instability if they are not seen to be more of a neutral player.

What do we think?

Nodin

A choice between Tories, Tory-lite, and 'I can't believe he's not a Tory' (Lib Dems, in case thats a bit too vague).

To be honest, I'd say its the Conservatives in, and by a healthy margin. Not good for NI, given their alliance with the UUP. Rather undermines Stormont, or at least has the capacity to.

evercloserunion

I can't help but think the Tories will muck this one up. Even now their poll advantage is in danger, it tends to go up and down from poll to poll but generally is much lower than it was a few months ago. I think a hung parliament with Labour the biggest party relying on Lib Dems for support is likely. Not ideal but better than a Tory majority government IMO.

deadhead13

Latest poll to published in tomorrows Guardian...

Conservatives - 37%
Labour -33%
Liberals - 21%

A hung parliament is a distinct possibility.

Iwasfrozen

evercloserunion wrote: »

Not ideal but better than a Tory majority government IMO.

Why ?

ChocolateSauce

As usual, the lib dems will be robbed of a number of seats thanks to the way the system is set up. They get around 25% of the vote, but only 15% of the seats.

Hung parliament seems probable. I wonder will they attempt a coalition?

Pride Fighter

Hung Parliament, Conservatives with a 25 seat lead over Labour and Lib Dems with the balance of power.

View

deadhead13 wrote: »

Latest poll to published in tomorrows Guardian...

Conservatives - 37%
Labour -33%
Liberals - 21%

A hung parliament is a distinct possibility.

Believe it when you see it. The FPTP system makes it really hard for a hung parliament to happen.

Btw, when was the last time anyone here talked about a hung Dail?

mike65

Labour to win, 30-40 seat majority.

ednwireland

cant forgive the tories for the 80's tbh, i've seen my parents much better looked after under labour than any tory gov, so if i still lived there i would prob vote labour, no alternative, although thats easy to say from over here.
although most of my family dont know who to vote for.


only one poll that matters and thats on may 6th

Iwasfrozen

I'm going to go for the Tories to win tough, with the recession the way it is they really shouldn't lose tbh.

Nodin

View wrote: »

Btw, when was the last time anyone here talked about a hung Dail?

Usually it is shooting thats mentioned, in fairness.

A Dub in Glasgo

Little point in voting as the folk in my constituency will vote for anything with a red rosette on and with FPTP that means an unexciting election.

Three way choice between the LD, SNP or SSP for me.

The Tories will do absymally in Scotland (again!) and if Labour can win back the seats it lost since 2005, I can see the Scottish Labour MPs once again scuppering the Tories (who are by and large an English party).

Anonymous1987

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

The Tories will do absymally in Scotland (again!)

Sorry for hijacking the thread but I'm just curious as to why the Tories always do so bad in Scotland?

Pride Fighter

Anonymous1987 wrote: »

Sorry for hijacking the thread but I'm just curious as to why the Tories always do so bad in Scotland?

Closing all of the mines and industries in Southern Scotland in the 80's. Using Scottish North Sea oil to fund a yuppie culture in and around London while Scotland did not get a penny. The fact Scotland had a huge manufacturing base of shipbuilding, steel, coalmining and brewing, all of which was highly unionised. Also the fact that the tories just screw every part of the UK extracting cash from the poor areas and giving to the rich.

Thats my take anyway.

A Dub in Glasgo

Anonymous1987 wrote: »

Sorry for hijacking the thread but I'm just curious as to why the Tories always do so bad in Scotland?

Not sure, I think it has something to do with the previous Unionist party merging with the English Conservative party and then becoming an outbase of the London centred party. This is exactly what Labour is so I don't know why this was no problem for the Labour Party. I'm sure Thatcher and her guinea pig solutions in Scotland did not help as well as decimating the heavy industry that employed a huge number in Scotland.

Anonymous1987

Pride Fighter wrote: »

Closing all of the mines and industries in Southern Scotland in the 80's. Using Scottish North Sea oil to fund a yuppie culture in and around London while Scotland did not get a penny. The fact Scotland had a huge manufacturing base of shipbuilding, steel, coalmining and brewing, all of which was highly unionised. Also the fact that the tories just screw every part of the UK extracting cash from the poor areas and giving to the rich.

Thats my take anyway.

I'd imagine that's the case for Glasgow but isn't Edinburgh a very wealthy service based city?

kev9100

Labour will win the most seats and the Tories will have the highest % of the vote. The Lib Dems and the smaller parties will hold the balance of power.

Pride Fighter

Anonymous1987 wrote: »

I'd imagine that's the case for Glasgow but isn't Edinburgh a very wealthy service based city?

Dumfries and Galloway and the Scottish borders too. In terms of industry anyway.

Gekko

Don't know if anyone's seen any of what's on WebSamCameron but I found it cringeworthy, the way Dave's wheeled out his wife. They're both at home and Dave is on his Apple computer, not sure which one it is, everything's just so.

Definitely a scheme to appeal to the female vote I guess.

Nick Clegg is more or less a clone of Cameron, even seems to share some of his mannerisms.

I have a feeling that anyone who bothers to vote might stick with "better the devil you know" approach and Brown might edge back in. Nothing concrete to base that on, it's just a hunch.

fuelinjection

oppenheimer1 wrote: »

Northern Ireland should turn a bit more interesting should the Conservatives have to depend on the UUP to get in. It could well cause instability if they are not seen to be more of a neutral player.

Labour - Tony Blair admitted he was a proud Unionist. He never faced down the UUP or DUP.
Tories - well of course we know they believe in Having Northern Ireland (6 counties) as part of their UK.

I don't see a badger's fart of a difference between then when it come to an independent Ireland.
And I have zero interest in the politics of Britain.

So ... yawn.

oppenheimer1

fuelinjection wrote: »

Labour - Tony Blair admitted he was a proud unionist. He never faced down the UUP or DUP.
Tories - well of course we know they believe in Having Northern Ireland (6 counties) as part of their UK.

I don't see an badger's fart of a difference between then when it come to an independent Ireland.
And I have zero interest in the politics of Britain.

So ... yawn.

What you say is true, but Labour didn't have to depend on Unionist support to stay in power. Should the UUP be required to help Cameron form a government, you can be sure that support won't come cheap, and it will be mainly in the form of concessions for the Unionist community.

No it won't make a difference in relation to the soverignty of Northern Ireland, but it has the potential to upset some people. The two governments in more recent times have taken the role as brokers of deals between the parties. It certainly won't help that the Conservatives are in an alliance with a party who opposed devolution of policing and justice. In addition Cameron seems to lack tact by meddling in NI politics at a time when tough negotiations were taking place back at the start of the year.

oppenheimer1

Gekko wrote: »

Don't know if anyone's seen any of what's on WebSamCameron but I found it cringeworthy, the way Dave's wheeled out his wife. They're both at home and Dave is on his Apple computer, not sure which one it is, everything's just so.

Definitely a scheme to appeal to the female vote I guess.

Nick Clegg is more or less a clone of Cameron, even seems to share some of his mannerisms.

I have a feeling that anyone who bothers to vote might stick with "better the devil you know" approach and Brown might edge back in. Nothing concrete to base that on, it's just a hunch.

I've a feeling it will be a Labour Lib-Dem coalition after the election. Not a disaster as I quite like the Lib-Dems, particularly Vince Cable. Either way I'll be happy as long as the Tories stay out.

Donkey Oaty

The betfair.com odds for an overall majority are interesting.

Conservatives: 1.61
Labour: 14
No overall majority: 3.2

I mention this not out of gambling interest but as a gauge of public opinion (it's a public exchange, not a bookmaker's prediction).

trapsagenius

Pride Fighter wrote: »

Closing all of the mines and industries in Southern Scotland in the 80's. Using Scottish North Sea oil to fund a yuppie culture in and around London while Scotland did not get a penny. The fact Scotland had a huge manufacturing base of shipbuilding, steel, coalmining and brewing, all of which was highly unionised. Also the fact that the tories just screw every part of the UK extracting cash from the poor areas and giving to the rich.

Thats my take anyway.

Harsh, but so, so true unfortunately.

evercloserunion

Former Deputy Prime Minister John Prescott has been attacked for urging followers to click on a Tory advert and take "50p out of the Tories warchest".

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/politics/election_2010/8608153.stm

Hehe. Fighting dirty.