will we have a good summer?

silverharp

Is there any evidence to suggest that Ireland will have a better summer then normal given that we have had the first real winter in years?

Deep Easterly

Silverharp2 wrote: »

Is there any evidence to suggest that Ireland will have a better summer then normal given that we have had the first real winter in years?

There is no evidence whatsoever Silverharp. Best we can do is hope for the best. Having said that, it would be unusual to have 4 crap summers in a row so maybe the odds suggest that something a bit better might happen, but we can only see when the time comes.

silverharp

Deep Easterly wrote: »

There is no evidence whatsoever Silverharp. Best we can do is hope for the best. Having said that, it would be unusual to have 4 crap summers in a row so maybe the odds suggest that something a bit better might happen, but we can only see when the time comes.

no evidence eh! looks like I'll have to resort to hope and false causality then:D no doubt if we do get a good summer the link will be made. Anyway here's hoping.

Elevator

yes, no, maybe

hope this helps

derekon

My own "gut" feeling is for a cool, very wet summer with a series of Atlantic low pressure systems lining up to come in over Ireland (akin to a litanty of planes queuing up to depart Heathrow Airport during a busy period)

My "gut" feelings have been correct over the past number of years and frankly, I don't see why this year will be any different

Oh and I also think that Ireland (and GB for that matter) is heading into a period of very cold winters as low pressure systems move further south over winter. Get used to cold periods such as the "Big Freeze" last January. There is plenty of snow and ice ahead for this fair green isle of ours...:D

D

thetonynator

derekon, i hope you're wrong about the summers and right about the winters!!!

there aren't any indicators ( apart from gut feelings ) and the whims of a postman in donegal, but i think oit would be good to have a thread and poll to discuss the topic, as it's come up many times in other threads . . .
The poll might give an idea of everyones gut feelings!!!

Min

Joe Bastardi thinks it will be a good summer for most of Europe, we are due a decent summer, wouldn't want 3 months of wall to wall sun at 30C or we'd have a bad drought......like 1995....

snow ghost

There is a very old lore from farmers in this part of the country that if May is good the rest of the summer will be bad, and vice versa.

I've always found it to be fairly accurate and the old farmers round here swear by it.

So pray for continious heavy rain throughout May.

Personally I'm going for a good summer, not on any scientific reasoning, just based on the law of averages that we are about due one and that the weather has been fairly out of whack for recent times, so who knows we could be moaning about the unrelentless heat and sun in a few months. :eek:

Deep Easterly

snow ghost wrote: »

There is a very old lore from farmers in this part of the country that if May is good the rest of the summer will be bad, and vice versa.

I've always found it to be fairly accurate and the old farmers round here swear by it.

So pray for continious heavy rain throughout May.

Personally I'm going for a good summer, not on any scientific reasoning, just based on the law of averages that we are about due one and that the weather has been fairly out of whack for recent times, so who knows we could be moaning about the unrelentless heat and sun in a few months. :eek:

Same lore around these here parts Snow. Summer in spring is considered a bad vibe, and in fairness, the last 3 or 4 years has proved this to be true.

Danno

This summer, in my opinion, will be mostly dry. No real heat either barring an odd week or two. I expect it to be rather dull also.

Godge

No!

Joe Public

If long cold winters of the recent past are anything to go by then they weren't followed by any spectacular summers. Examples of this are last summer, 1963, 1979, 1985 and 1986. But who knows anything can happen when you are least expecting it.

worded

I heard some birds were seen flying backwards in Mayo which is a sure sign of a good summer!

Joe Public

worded wrote: »

I heard some birds were seen flying backwards in Mayo which is a sure sign of a good summer!

Probably kites:D

pauldry

I would be positive. There has to be one nice month. Lets see if I analyse all the months of the recent past and some iffy predictions of the future ones surely we can get ONE good warm month this year thats not April!

NOVEMBER - WET! WET! WET!
DECEMBER - FREEZING BUT RAIN NOT EXCESSIVE
JANUARY - FREEZING AND FAIRLY DRY - OH NO
FEBRUARY - COLD AND DRIER THAN NORMAL
MARCH - COLD AND NEAR NORMAL RAIN

So these are facts. On this basis we are due a lot of rain because of the dry cold months but who knows.

APRIL - Maybe wet at first, dry middle, wet end
MAY - WET WET WET
JUNE - Normal Rain
JULY - THE HOPE FOR THE WARM DRY MONTH
AUGUST - Will hope some of Julys warmth spills into this

This is beyond FI but just my imaginarium at work so dont take it at all seriously. Just a bit of fun.:cool:

snow ghost

worded wrote: »

I heard some birds were seen flying backwards in Mayo which is a sure sign of a good summer!

The badgers wearing bikinis are a dead give away worded! :pac:

The birds flying backwards here is a common sight and not a sign of potential weather - on their annual migration to Britain they usually only get as far as the Pale and swiftly shift into reverse!

Deep Easterly

Danno wrote: »

This summer, in my opinion, will be mostly dry. No real heat either barring an odd week or two. I expect it to be rather dull also.

Probably the most sepulchral, hope destroying forecast I have ever come across.

owenc

Yes as each Winter is getting Colder and the Summers are getting Warmer... i mean last winter it was never -15c... and the winter before -2c was cold LOL!!! and we hardly ever had snow... Then this Summer I'd say we'll have a Month of 20c like we had a Month of ice days (or 2)

StinkySocs

I hope it nice and sunny please please please let it be nice and sunny!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Atlantic_oscillation






http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/data/teledoc/nao.shtml

If we get a stronger negative NAO we will get a dry summer, the possibility remains of getting a shift in line with season shift (winter to summer) and it the migration of the jet stream north where it could get stuck leaving us with another washout summer
ftp://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wd52dg/data/indices/tele_index.nh

The last hot summer - 1995 had NAO negative values similiar to whats forecast for the rest of this month

Joe Public

Joe Public wrote: »

If long cold winters of the recent past are anything to go by then they weren't followed by any spectacular summers. Examples of this are last summer, 1963, 1979, 1985 and 1986. But who knows anything can happen when you are least expecting it.

1963 was negative NAO but borderline - was it a mixed summer?

1979 moved into a positive NAO from a Negative one during the winter

1985 - negative during the winter especially January - was Jan that year exceptionally cold? The summer changed from borderline to positive to borderline again - no good!

1986 - most of the winter and summer was positive! So not comparable to this year.
ftp://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wd52dg/data/indices/tele_index.nh
Figures are all there if anyone wants to go through it in more detail to find what year is most comparable to this year

Esroh

Just to bring us back on the folklore side
The Farmers over here just look at the water level in the lakes to see what is coming down the line

pauldry wrote: »

I would be positive. There has to be one nice month. Lets see if I analyse all the months of the recent past and some iffy predictions of the future ones surely we can get ONE good warm month this year thats not April!

NOVEMBER - WET! WET! WET!Lake s were way up on normal levels
DECEMBER - FREEZING BUT RAIN NOT EXCESSIVE Lakes stayed up
JANUARY - FREEZING AND FAIRLY DRY - OH NO Lakes went down
FEBRUARY - COLD AND DRIER THAN NORMAL Lakes down to summer levels though which summer:D
MARCH - COLD AND NEAR NORMAL RAIN Lakes coming back up to what is expected in Spring

So these are facts. On this basis we are due a lot of rain because of the dry cold months but who knows.

APRIL - Maybe wet at first, dry middle, wet end. After 3 days Lakes have risen to Spring Levels So the only way is up with the forcast rains
MAY - WET WET WET
JUNE - Normal Rain Lakes will return to
JULY - THE HOPE FOR THE WARM DRY MONTH
AUGUST - Will hope some of Julys warmth spills into this

This is beyond FI but just my imaginarium at work so dont take it at all seriously. Just a bit of fun.:cool:

So I have to agree with the hope that July and August will be warm and dry so as to bring the lakes to their expected summer levels

dsmythy

I've heard El Nino is meant to be weakening which may cause an extra active Atlantic hurricane season. How might this affect us for the summer?

Joe Public

Deleted User wrote: »

1963 was negative NAO but borderline - was it a mixed summer? On 2nd thoughts it wasn't too bad compared with most - may/jun & jul averaged 5->6 hours sunshine per day and fell back to 3 per day for aug/sept. The average temps for jun/jul were 13.3C and 12.9 for aug.

1979 moved into a positive NAO from a Negative one during the winter

1985 - negative during the winter especially January - was Jan that year exceptionally cold? ( Jan average was 0.8C ) The summer changed from borderline to positive to borderline again - no good!

1986 - most of the winter and summer was positive! So not comparable to this year.
ftp://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wd52dg/data/indices/tele_index.nh
Figures are all there if anyone wants to go through it in more detail to find what year is most comparable to this year

I'm using the data from here
http://www.dx3webs.com/81/Irelandmeantemp.php

Squeaksoutloud

[FONT=arial,helvetica,sans-serif]Wish we had a Summer of '95 again..look at this:[/FONT]
[FONT=arial,helvetica,sans-serif][/FONT]
[FONT=arial,helvetica,sans-serif]The summer of 1995 was the warmest on record over most of the country. The warmest month on record almost everywhere was August 1995, when mean temperatures were around 18°C, up to four degrees above normal. Kilkenny had a total of 27 days with temperatures in excess of 25°C (compared with a normal of 4) and also had the highest temperature of the summer with 31.8°C.[/FONT]

Taken from http://www.rte.ie/ie/morningireland/entry/25_years_of_weather

I remember all the grass was burnt at the time. If only...

InKonspikuou2

I reckon it will be 3 months of pure undulterated sunshine everywhere except Coleraine.

admiralofthefleet

Squeaksoutloud wrote: »

[FONT=arial,helvetica,sans-serif]Wish we had a Summer of '95 again..look at this:[/FONT]
[FONT=arial,helvetica,sans-serif][/FONT]
[FONT=arial,helvetica,sans-serif]The summer of 1995 was the warmest on record over most of the country. The warmest month on record almost everywhere was August 1995, when mean temperatures were around 18°C, up to four degrees above normal. Kilkenny had a total of 27 days with temperatures in excess of 25°C (compared with a normal of 4) and also had the highest temperature of the summer with 31.8°C.[/FONT]

Taken from http://www.rte.ie/ie/morningireland/entry/25_years_of_weather

I remember all the grass was burnt at the time. If only...

i was 14 in 1995, it was the best summer ever

owenc

admiralofthefleet wrote: »

i was 14 in 1995, it was the best summer ever

I was born in that year.. :P

Joe Public

Here's a positive prediction

http://uk.news.yahoo.com/4/20100322/video/vuk-bbq-summer-predicted-for2010-49bfa63.html

nacho libre

well if the pattern of the last few month continues positive solutions could well be right about near record temperatures.... considering we got close to 22c during last weekend i think at the height of the summer temperatures arising from a continental airflow would reach into the early thirties. i'm hoping it doesn't get that hot, though.

irishh_bob

snow ghost wrote: »

There is a very old lore from farmers in this part of the country that if May is good the rest of the summer will be bad, and vice versa.

I've always found it to be fairly accurate and the old farmers round here swear by it.

So pray for continious heavy rain throughout May.

Personally I'm going for a good summer, not on any scientific reasoning, just based on the law of averages that we are about due one and that the weather has been fairly out of whack for recent times, so who knows we could be moaning about the unrelentless heat and sun in a few months. :eek:

i grew up on a farm and know plenty of farmers , never heard that one and besides , may 2009 was a terrible month , incredibly wet bar the final few days

snow ghost

irishh_bob wrote: »

i grew up on a farm and know plenty of farmers , never heard that one and besides , may 2009 was a terrible month , incredibly wet bar the final few days

Maybe it's a West Coast thing Bob, where do you live? There's even something about it in the Museum of Country Life.

May was fairly good here last year.

nacho libre

snow ghost wrote: »

Maybe it's a West Coast thing Bob, where do you live? There's even something about it in the Museum of Country Life.

May was fairly good here last year.

perhaps. i've often heard farmers around here say a good May meant a bad summer and vice versa.

snow ghost

nacho libre wrote: »

perhaps. i've often heard farmers around here say a good May meant a bad summer and vice versa.

Yeah Nacjo, I read something in the Museum of Country Life a while back in one of their exhibitions... there was an old rythme about making the hay along much the same lines.

Deep Easterly

nacho libre wrote: »

perhaps. i've often heard farmers around here say a good May meant a bad summer and vice versa.

Same here, and in fairness, last May as I recall was not that bad, nor was June, but went downhill during the 2nd part of July with non stop heavy rain.

May 2008 was supurb, a bit like now only warmer, and by God did we pay for it during the summer. :pac:

mike65

September is the only month you can rely on, the rest are like Alex Higgins.

nacho libre

Alex is in a bad way now. Who can forget his amazing clearance in the semi-final of the world snooker chamiopnship against Jimmy White all those years ago.

oops... this is the weather forum...:p

M.T. Cranium

I don't think I've posted in this forum but clearly the title is now somewhat in need of revision, perhaps to Will We Have Any Summer? (if the volcano keeps going) ...

But as to the original question, yes for sure, possibly 2023.

ch750536

Wow, MT, one of those 'I didn't recognise you with clothes on' moments that you have at staff parties when the uniforms are left at home.

Summer will be fine. My 5yr old just told me so.

M.T. Cranium

I want to work where you work.

Seriously though, if this volcano keeps going, summer cancelled.

KittyeeTrix

Summer '95, oh the memories.......all that sunbathing.........I have the sun damaged wrinkles as proof of how bloody hot it was:(
Wouldn't want it that hot or prolonged again but definitely would like some sort of bloody summer!!!
Please:D

Pangea

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

I want to work where you work.

Seriously though, if this volcano keeps going, summer cancelled.

How long do you think it would take for the volcano to have an effect on our summer weather? weeks?
What would be the implications , Colder? Cloudier?
Thanks

nacho libre

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

I want to work where you work.

Seriously though, if this volcano keeps going, summer cancelled.

say if it ceased activity in the next day or so, do you believe it would still have an affect on our weather a few months down the line or would it take longer than that to have an effect? would you expect us to have a colder winter, than otherwise we might have, in 2011/12.

Pangea

nacho libre wrote: »

say if it ceased activity in the next day or so, do you believe it would still have an affect on our weather a few months down the line or would it take longer than that to have an effect? would you expect us to have a colder winter, than otherwise we might have, in 2011/12.

Get in line , Im first :pac::pac:

M.T. Cranium

I think I posted some thoughts on cause and effect re volcanic dust veils and climate on the other thread a day or two back, but the long and short of it would be this ...

if this volcanic episode ends within a week, I don't think there will be much long-term climate effect. Climate effects are thought to occur in two steps, the first being just direct reduction of sunlight reaching the lower layers on a regional then eventually hemispheric basis, and that phase follows the volcanic activity about 3 to 12 months later (but can extend if the volcanic dust production extends).

A second phase, more speculative, is climate feedback. By this stage, the atmosphere has processed the dust veil and things are back to normal regarding insolation, but now the periods of colder than normal temperatures are feeding back through their own effects like reduced sea surface temps, increased regional snowfall (this is partly due to more nuclei in the atmosphere and partly due to the colder temps).

So in this second phase which can strike 3-5 years down the road, you see a spike in frequency of cold seasons in the same general area as the direct effects before. These two phases may merge in large scale events but can be separated by a rebound period.

In this case, I would say, if the Icelandic activity is significant for another month or longer, there's a good chance of the direct feedback of a colder than average summer possibly showing itself even in terms of reduced air mass temperatures (as was seen in 1992 after Pinatubo).

If the Icelandic events become major then this could be the beginning of several cool to cold years.

kakee

If the Icelandic events become major then this could be the beginning of several cool to cold years.

What do you mean when you say major M. T. ?

Danno

Major would mean Katla to errupt I think.

alanajane

Where is all the volcanic fuss gone?? Has the eruptions stopped or should I head to the conspiracy theory threads???

worded

worded wrote: »

I heard some birds were seen flying backwards in Mayo which is a sure sign of a good summer!

Seems I Was right

mike65

alanajane wrote: »

Where is all the volcanic fuss gone?? Has the eruptions stopped or should I head to the conspiracy theory threads???

The vind ist bloving in ze vrong direkshun. Or raver it ist bloving in ze right direkshun

drdeadlift

alanajane wrote: »

Where is all the volcanic fuss gone?? Has the eruptions stopped or should I head to the conspiracy theory threads???

http://eldgos.mila.is/eyjafjallajokull-fra-hvolsvelli/


This was a handy site to view the volcano in all its glory,there have been some tremers the last few weeks but little activity otherwise.
Most of the tremers were coming from the north of Iceland not so close to the volcano itself.