Supreme Novices - Review

Nulty

Dunguib - Took the long way around which may have cost him 5 lengths over two miles. If he was as good as every one was making out (and I thought) he could have been closer. Who knows what might have happened if O'Connell found himself behind the jinking horse on the inside - ?

GMOOH - Good ride considering the jinking horse. Made up good ground at the line and looks as good as we saw in the Totesport Trophy. Is very tough too to come out and finish so stongly considering that race was only a month ago.

Menorah - Deserved winner and the positioning of the horse seemed to be crucial. Johnson had him at the front on the inside which bought him a lot of ground. Could say more but was watching the other two more closely.

All three look as if they have nothing between them and next year there are three (at least) fantastic horses entering the Champion Hurdle sphere. (Although I think Fenton said Dunguib will eventually go fencing)

Hot-Rod

I personally think Dunguib got a terrible ride. Ruby or Barry would have won on him today. Brian O'Connell is not a bad rider, i just think nerves got the better of him today. Maybe he was just following the trainers instructions keeping him so far back in the field but he must have tried to make up 20 length on the leaders after the 3rd last which was impossible against two very good horse which ended up 1st and 2nd.

Fancied the winner and wished i had backed him on paddy power with the special concesion they had on the race, but my internet connection was awful today. Couldnt see Dunguib loosing and will be backing him hard again the next time. Watch the bumper from last year again, he was riden handy and kicked 3 out. If riden like that today he would have won.

Morgans

if you dont learn from losing, you really have no chance.

If the race was run in a week's time on the same conditions - Menorah and Get me out of Here would rightly be vying for favouritism with Dunguib third favourite.

There is one big difference between the bumper and the Supreme, the fact that there are hurdles. He simply doesnt jump well enough to keep tabs. His class would mean he would make ground on the flat. Its why he kept to the outside - to allow him more room. He made up his ground on the flat and connections adn jockey thought they were on Nijinsky. If he improves his jumping he could still be top class. But time isnt on his side and the jury is still out on it. I can come to no other conclusion that those saying it was the jockey's fault are doing the worst sort of pocket talking.

He wasnt up to it. Live and learn.

Colonel Sanders

I said on another thread that I don't think he got a good ride but I'm not sure if it made the difference

You can see where they were coming from giving him a clear look at his hurdles but that was massively over done 2 out. He again traveled supremely well but couldn't pick up as well as the front 2 when push came to shove. Maybe the ground was slightly quick or maybe he just needs to do it all on the bridle

What I would hate is that the post race attention falls on him and not the first 2. It was a good performance from Menorah, he's only been beaten in 2 muddling races and connections seem to think a lot of him. However I think Get Me Out Of here could be the best horse in the race and would have won in another few strides (or maybe if he'd long run in after the last)

Oscar Whiskey was 4th so the 'right' horses finished behind.

Morgans

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

I said on another thread that I don't think he got a good ride but I'm not sure if it made the difference

You can see where they were coming from giving him a clear look at his hurdles but that was massively over done 2 out. He again traveled supremely well but couldn't pick up as well as the front 2 when push came to shove. Maybe the ground was slightly quick or maybe he just needs to do it all on the bridle

What I would hate is that the post race attention falls on him and not the first 2. It was a good performance from Menorah, he's only been beaten in 2 muddling races and connections seem to think a lot of him. However I think Get Me Out Of here could be the best horse in the race and would have won in another few strides (or maybe if he'd long run in after the last)

Oscar Whiskey was 4th so the 'right' horses finished behind.

I'd agree with that. I think its unfair to knock an inexperienced jockey instead of admitting you picked the wrong horse. Will be interesting to see what they do with Get Me Out of Here with Binocular knocking about. I get the impression though that this time next year we'll know how well the fav Oscar Whiskey did in the Arkle.

I think Dunguib found plenty for pressure (as he did last year) and didnt stop trying up up the straight. The ground might have been ideal, but more so because it allowed the faster jumpers to get clear of their hurdles rather than potter over them as would have been the case on heavier ground. He would be the most likely of the three to win an Irish Leger but he needs to sort out the jumping to fulfil his potential.

westlife2010

I assume the instructions wr to keep him out of trouble on the outside and give him a good sight of the hurdles. He was very free and when you constantly switch him out at every hurdle you are 'lighting' up the horse. Dissapointing performance as his hurldling was not enough of an excuse

Colonel Sanders

Morgans wrote: »

I'd agree with that. I think its unfair to knock an inexperienced jockey instead of admitting you picked the wrong horse. Will be interesting to see what they do with Get Me Out of Here with Binocular knocking about. I get the impression though that this time next year we'll know how well the fav Oscar Whiskey did in the Arkle.

I haven't seen Get Me Out of Here in the flesh but he doesn't appear the biggest. Binocular will surely stay over hurdles so JP could have 2 champion contenders in next year's champion

Oscar Whiskey will surely make a chaser alright. Is the plan fences or hurdles next season for Menorah?

A tough first day's punting. I'd a good each way cut at Ogee at 16s ante post. The mistake 2 out didn't help but not 100% sure it was the difference between winning and losing

Absolutely lumped on L'ami each way and must say I thought he had the race won coming to the last (I hadn't seen A New Story emerge travelling well). That one hasn't won since 2005 and picks today to win again :rolleyes:

Morgans

westlife2010 wrote: »

I assume the instructions wr to keep him out of trouble on the outside and give him a good sight of the hurdles. He was very free and when you constantly switch him out at every hurdle you are 'lighting' up the horse. Dissapointing performance as his hurldling was not enough of an excuse

I think if he hurdles better, he becomes a far less complicated ride. He sits third or fourth and has everything covered like the best athlete in the race. Takes the luck out of it. He doesnt have to rely on his huge speed to keep him involved.

mdwexford

The top 2 are very good horses, id want both on my side for next years Champion Hurdle and 12s is a fair price for both. I have a feeling GMOOH may prove to be the best horse in the race.

Agree with others that O'Connell must have been told to bring him wide and give him a good look at his obstacles. Lost him ground for sure but his jumping still wasnt great and he'll always struggle in top class races imo.

Second poster above and plenty of others will think he was unlucky today and will continue to back him on hype when he clearly just isnt a top class hurdler.

Hot-Rod

mdwexford wrote: »

Second poster above and plenty of others will think he was unlucky today and will continue to back him on hype when he clearly just isnt a top class hurdler.

You could be right, he may not be a top class hurdler, but i am prepared to give him another chance in the same company. Hopefully they will ride him more prominant and give him a chance.

If he is beaten then, i will hold my hands up and say I am wrong, but i do think he is one of the best horses i have ever seen.

mdwexford

Yeah you're entitled to your opinion and i know a lot of others will think similar. He is one to avoid now imo in fast run races with a decent amount of runners which admittedly he wont encounter too often but the horse is not a natural jumper and never will be sadly.

westlife2010

If I was connected with the horse I would explore the chance that he could be top notch on the flat (most Presenting's wouldn't be, but everything about his crusing speed screams group 1 stayer)

Colonel Sanders

Replay is up on thesportinglife

meriwether

I'll give this my illeducated opinion:

-Dunguib not good enough. Hype horse gets chinned, and you'd want to be mad to take 4/5 on an unproven horse in the FIRST race in the festival. See Sweet Wake, see Cousin Vinnie, see Aran Concerto. I can only assume the phrase 'Irish Banker' is ironic.

-GMOOH would have won had AP given it a better ride.

Great day for me - in profit for the week already (GMOOH e/w 8/1, win stake refunded, Lumpy enough on Binocular 4/1 (wont compensate me for last year however!), starluck beaten as was Voler la Vedette (teeny bet VLV).

Have Tranquil and forpady to go yet, so am happy.

Quite different from last year when I pawned my Granny to pay off the Binocular 'episode'.

I hope others did well. Best of luck.

Colonel Sanders

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

Replay is up on thesportinglife

Dear god between jumping the 3rd and climbing the hill Dunguib lost an absolute ton of ground. I actually didn't realise just how much watching it live

Keano

meriwether wrote: »

I'll give this my illeducated opinion:

-Dunguib not good enough. Hype horse gets chinned, and you'd want to be mad to take 4/5 on an unproven horse in the FIRST race in the festival. See Sweet Wake, see Cousin Vinnie, see Aran Concerto. I can only assume the phrase 'Irish Banker' is ironic.

-GMOOH would have won had AP given it a better ride.

Great day for me - in profit for the week already (GMOOH e/w 8/1, win stake refunded, Lumpy enough on Binocular 4/1 (wont compensate me for last year however!), starluck beaten as was Voler la Vedette (teeny bet VLV).

Have Tranquil and forpady to go yet, so am happy.

Quite different from last year when I pawned my Granny to pay off the Binocular 'episode'.

I hope others did well. Best of luck.

Dungib has ran before at the festival. He won last years bumper.

How did you get your win stake refunded?

Colonel Sanders

Keano A Legend wrote: »

Dungib has ran before at the festival. He won last years bumper.

How did you get your win stake refunded?

Celtic were refunding bets if Dunguib was beaten

Stupidity on their behalf but don't complain if you drew!

meriwether

Keano A Legend wrote: »

Dungib has ran before at the festival. He won last years bumper.

How did you get your win stake refunded?

I know, while my post wasn't clear on that point, in my opinion, that is not the metric to demonstrate he is proven for the Supreme.

Colonel Sanders

What did we learn from the other races?

The Arkle: looked well up to standard and Sizing rates a good winner. Somersby will make a good chaser over further and Osana needs good ground. Mad Max is a high class novice and may well have been involved if not for the mistake 2 out. Captain Cee Bee clouted one fences and was off the bridle a long way from home. May be of interest if they stepped him up to 2.5m. Sports Line always looked to me to be a soft ground horse and his actual form left him with a lot to find here. Riverside theatre surprised me how well he finished

The William Hill: A great race. The Package would have won in another few strides and I thought Chief Dan George was a flat rack horse. Ogee ran a blinder but was just outstayed having made mistakes, 2 of them howlers. Could still win a handicap on good spring ground. The story of the race is how well Bensalem was travelling when coming down 2 out. Looked in the process of running a massive race and shows connections were right to think 143 was a very favourable mark. It will be interesting to see where he goes now. Wondr would they be tempted to wait for next year's Hennessy. There is a 3m handicap chase on the Grand National card. Some of the older horses in this race look a bit exposed although The Tother One ran well off top weight

The Champion: Binocular came back with a bang! Shows that he may have been unlucky last year as he had an interrupted preparation. Khyber Kim continues to improve at a rate of knots and NTD seems to have got to the bottom of him. Zaynar ran well but surely needs further now. Celestial halo ran well for a horse who I thought was out of form and will be interesting next year over fences, although I'm not usually a fan of ex flat horses over fences. Starluck ran well and seemed to find plenty when asked. Solwhit could have been caught out on the ground but I think there's a question mark over his stable's well being. Go native was killed by the mistake at the 2nd but its hard to see how he'd have troubled the winner

Shane732

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

Dear god between jumping the 3rd and climbing the hill Dunguib lost an absolute ton of ground. I actually didn't realise just how much watching it live

Yes he lost an absolute ton of ground. As someone said earlier on he was rode with complete arrogance. I don't think that's the jockey's fault at all - I'd imagine he was just following orders. He was 4 wide at times and gave his competitors far too much of a lead.

His jumping was reasonable today although he did hit the last.

Having said that he was beaten less than 3 lengths, granted not the result of an odds-on 'banker' but I think it's unfair to say that he should be avoided going forward based on a 3 length loss.

I'll wait to see what they do with him next and what price he is in his next race before deciding on whether I avoid him or not.

gscully

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

What did we learn from the other races?

The Arkle: looked well up to standard and Sizing rates a good winner. Somersby will make a good chaser over further and Osana needs good ground. Mad Max is a high class novice and may well have been involved if not for the mistake 2 out. Captain Cee Bee clouted one fences and was off the bridle a long way from home. May be of interest if they stepped him up to 2.5m. Sports Line always looked to me to be a soft ground horse and his actual form left him with a lot to find here. Riverside theatre surprised me how well he finished

Captain Cee Bee broke a blood vessel during the race apparently.

Regarding Dunguib, I think he was given too much to do. In a sizeable field like that, he needed to be jumping the second last and hitting the turn on the tail of the leader. He wasn't. He made up the ground going to the last and stayed with the leaders all the way up the hill but had used up all his gas at that stage. I'll be backing him again. It almost reminded me of Binocular's finish last year where he also had too much to do, though Binocular's finishing speed was very impressive that day.

Morgans

meriwether wrote: »

I know, while my post wasn't clear on that point, in my opinion, that is not the metric to demonstrate he is proven for the Supreme.

Aran Concerto was in Sun Alliance Hurdle - not the supreme - started at 5/2
Cousin Vinny 9/4
Sweet Wake 5/2

Only fools use the term Irish banker.

The only horse that Dunguib resembles was Youlneverwalkalone, who started around evens and was similarly hyped going into the race.

The talk of him going for the champion looks even more silly in hindsight.

Morgans

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

What did we learn from the other races?

The Arkle: looked well up to standard and Sizing rates a good winner. Somersby will make a good chaser over further and Osana needs good ground. Mad Max is a high class novice and may well have been involved if not for the mistake 2 out. Captain Cee Bee clouted one fences and was off the bridle a long way from home. May be of interest if they stepped him up to 2.5m. Sports Line always looked to me to be a soft ground horse and his actual form left him with a lot to find here. Riverside theatre surprised me how well he finished

Riverside theatre looks very much ripe for a Paddy Power next year.

Aidric

Anyone else think Timmy Murphy messed up in leaving his challenge too late on the package?

cson

Not one iota, The Package was bet early doors imo and only started staying on after they'd jumped the last. He passed 3 in the last 200 yards iirc and would have caught CDG in another 10.

Whyno

Morgans wrote: »

Riverside theatre looks very much ripe for a Paddy Power next year.

Defo made 30 lengths up between the last two. Very promising for some of the big handicaps next year alright.

Nulty

My personal opinion on the Supreme (after sleeping on it) is that Dunguib is still the best horse in the race. Jumping is something you can work on. Closer to the pace and on the inside, he would have won. Starting his career late wouldn't have helped him. I refuse to blame O' Connel for Dunguibs defeat. He did what he & connections perhaps thought had to be done. Ran a great race considering and he had to be beaten at some stage. Next time...

Morgans wrote: »

Aran Concerto was in Sun Alliance Hurdle - not the supreme - started at 5/2
Cousin Vinny 9/4
Sweet Wake 5/2

Only fools use the term Irish banker.

The only horse that Dunguib resembles was Youlneverwalkalone, who started around evens and was similarly hyped going into the race.

The talk of him going for the champion looks even more silly in hindsight.

Only if you take Binoculars performance into account. A better ride* would have seen him competitive IMO

*Not knocking the jockey but the cautionary tactics

Colonel Sanders

Nulty wrote: »

Only if you take Binoculars performance into account. A better ride* would have seen him competitive IMO

*Not knocking the jockey but the cautionary tactics

A controversial statement

Judging by this you think both Menorah & GMOOH would have been on the premises in the champion hurdle as even with a better ride Dunguib might* have finished closer or even won but no way would he have smashed them. Seeing as the champion winner will surely be rated 15-20lbs higher than Menorah its hard to see how you can make a case for him in the chmpion even after the race

*emphasis on might

Morgans

especially after the race.

Juwwi

l think they should make the running on him.

l was hoping thats what hey would do yesterday.

he must of lost around 12-15 lenghts yesterday running wide.

l would'nt write him off for the champion next year yet.

Morgans

If they could settle him and teach him to jump slickly it would be a good idea. But until then, its not a runner.

Nulty

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

A controversial statement

Judging by this you think both Menorah & GMOOH would have been on the premises in the champion hurdle as even with a better ride Dunguib might* have finished closer or even won but no way would he have smashed them. Seeing as the champion winner will surely be rated 15-20lbs higher than Menorah its hard to see how you can make a case for him in the chmpion even after the race

*emphasis on might

I dont think I made my self clear. If Binocular hadn't run they would have deserved to be in the race. And would have done themselves justice. Binoculars run was devastating so none could have competed with that

Colonel Sanders

Nulty wrote: »

I dont think I made my self clear. If Binocular hadn't run they would have deserved to be in the race. And would have done themselves justice. Binoculars run was devastating so none could have competed with that

and my comments still apply, Khyber Kim ran right up to his best in 2nd. Take Binocular out and he'd have been a good winner

Nulty

I'm not saying they would have won, I'm saying they would have deserved their place.