Ground or form line?

mike65

Given the conditions over the winter created by frost/snow and the fact that going at Chelters will be no worse than good/soft by the looks of it, should looking for winners (esp at longer prices) focus more on the going than strict form lines?

RichieLawlor

mike65 wrote: »

Given the conditions over the winter created by frost/snow and the fact that going at Chelters will be no worse than good/soft by the looks of it, should looking for winners (esp at longer prices) focus more on the going than strict form lines?

How about check for form on the differnt types of going. Don't back mud larks or horse that need firm ground. Also don't back a no hoped just because he will relish the conditions. Good horses can win on all ground and the forcast good to soft will be perfect jumping ground

Morrisseeee

I'd be more worried about horses who have form 'at the track', ie. coming up that hill !! Obviously if it rains next week, then you would be looking at stayers, ie. like Denman a few years ago (v Kauto).

cson

Morrisseeee wrote: »

I'd be more worried about horses who have form 'at the track', ie. coming up that hill !! Obviously if it rains next week, then you would be looking at stayers, ie. like Denman a few years ago (v Kauto).

What are you on about? Denman was out on his legs coming up that hill in 2008. If anything Kauto Star would be the better stayer of the two. :rolleyes:

Morrisseeee

Commentary is: won by 7 lengths, "soon clear, stayed on well flat, ridden out", no mention of him being 'out on his feet' ! (but I guess he was tiring because thats the way he races, gallops from pillar to post). Same in the Hennessey this year, giving alot of weight to his rivals: "always prominent, made most 10th to 14th, led 15th, made rest, strongly pressed from 2 out, driven and stayed on gamely run-in".
I suppose I better clarify, he was my choice in 2008, for the following reasons: the underfoot conditions were 'soft-ish', Kauto wasn't fully fit, and hence I knew Denman would gallop them into the ground and out-stay them (which he did easily). Last year it was the reverse, Kauto was in excellent form whereas Denman wasn't fully wound-up, and also the ground was that bit better, and hence Kauto won easily. So...........to the OP's Q, I guess IMHO you have to take each year seperate, and take the current going, form (& track form) into account.
/PS. I would love to see both fully fit and tackling each other nose-to-nose. But both are getting on now, 10 year old, and maybe next year (or this year) we will see a changing of the guard :eek:

mdwexford

Do you work in Nicholls yard??

Morrisseeee

Nope

mdwexford

Then how did you know Kauto wasnt fully fit before the 2008 Gold Cup.

Morrisseeee

Ha, I can barely remember what happened last week let alone 2008 ! but I'm sure there was something about Kauto's build up that year that wasn't quite right, but your comment stunned me a little and I'm now doubting my own memory !!

/oh yeah, back on topic pls......>

mike65

Bump, while the official going is good to soft on the old course, the feedback from those who have walked it this morning is good with just the odd soft patch. I don't see anything to change that during the week (only rain is likely to be patchy and light at the course).