E/W bets for Cheltenham

Nozebleed · 12-03-2010 12:37am #1

Im going all out with E/W bets this cheltenham. i never have much look with this festival. for the last few years i would place my bets early in the day and sit in the local pub for the day watching the box..its great fun..i'd bet no more than a €5 on every race usually backing 1st,2nd or 3rd favourites or for some reason horse names i recognise from previous races. but to be honest i rarely make profit,tend to win 2 or 3 races over the few days and break even every year but im happy enough with that...im in it for the entertainment more so..but this year i was gona try some e/w accumulators..i dont really know enough about form or the potential when it comes to outsiders..im basically going on interviews in the papers..
maybe some of the more educated/professional gamblers could list a few outsiders with decent chances..

My 1st E/W Treb was going to be:

Great Endeavour 16/1 (Tue 2.40)
Kyber Kim 8/1 (Tue 3.20)
L'Ami 3/1 (Tue 4.00)

daboi89 · 12-03-2010 12:39am

salut flo;)

jewson novices chase (thursday)

ill say no more;)

12/1 from 20s

argosy2006 · 12-03-2010 12:42am

tricky trickster to finish 3rd?

admiralofthefleet · 12-03-2010 12:44am

shannon spirit, 25/1 can still be had

Colonel Sanders · 12-03-2010 9:24am

Salut Flo will struggle to get into the Jewson

daboi89 · 12-03-2010 7:40pm

he within the top 6 horses in the betting.

trends for the race( last 5 winners have only won once before the race)
he fits the bill

get on;)

Nulty · 13-03-2010 3:19am

RSA Chase
Burton Port 16/1

Done nothing wrong since jumping fences, is tough and can jump. Could be gold silver and bronze for Henderson if the other two get around

RichieLawlor · 13-03-2010 5:10am

Nulty wrote: »

RSA Chase
Burton Port 16/1

Done nothing wrong since jumping fences, is tough and can jump. Could be gold silver and bronze for Henderson if the other two get around

Henderson says this one misses the festival for Aintree

Nulty · 13-03-2010 12:06pm

RichieLawlor wrote: »

Henderson says this one misses the festival for Aintree

Theres been continued support for him (his price has been shortening at any rate) and he said that after the run at Ascot. He's still in it and he's been in the video stable tours. NRNB so not tooo worried

Don't know when this was said but probably since Ascot:

"Unbeaten in four chases - it was a brush hurdle when he was second to
Diamond Harry - and he wasn't at his best on his last run at Ascot when
he beat Knockara Beau. It was only 12 days after he beat The Sliotar at
Southwell which was a very good performance. Solid as a rock, very
professional and in any normal year he'd have an outstanding chance
in the RSA and he's definitely not without one this time."

Nulty · 13-03-2010 12:18pm

Imperial Commander

Get Me Out Of Here

UrbanSea · 13-03-2010 1:25pm

Wait think I'm getting my horses mixed up

Nulty · 13-03-2010 1:45pm

Weird Al's out of the race now. Burton Port will get around and he aint slow

Warper · 14-03-2010 6:35pm

Mullins and Ruby reckon Cooldine is a model to be placed in the Gold Cup. His price was 12-1 during the week but after checking there he is best priced 9-1 now. Still if anything happens Kauto he could do more than getting placed.
A forecast behind Kauto is another option. Can someone tell me how the forecast odds are calculated? Is it taken from the Tote?

Also OP, why would you put a 3-1 shot in an e/w treble?

Reginald P. DuM · 14-03-2010 8:00pm

Ruby confirmed on Citizen Vic in the RSA.. 25's into 12 now.. Great chance of a place.

Morgans · 14-03-2010 8:03pm

FWIW, I've no problem putting a horse at less than 5/1 into an ew bet. I think its more than sensible when you are as sure as you can be that the horse wont be out of the first three. I use it as an insurance policy and allow myself a bigger win bet. I think its far more sensible to have an ew bet on a race like that compared to the Grand National, Coral Cup or County Hurdle.

I don't see the point to multiples though.

mdwexford · 14-03-2010 8:21pm

Reginald P. DuM wrote: »

Ruby confirmed on Citizen Vic in the RSA.. 25's into 12 now.. Great chance of a place.

Will need several others to fall imo, the Irish form is terrible.

Morgans wrote: »

FWIW, I've no problem putting a horse at less than 5/1 into an ew bet. I think its more than sensible when you are as sure as you can be that the horse wont be out of the first three. I use it as an insurance policy and allow myself a bigger win bet. I think its far more sensible to have an ew bet on a race like that compared to the Grand National, Coral Cup or County Hurdle.

I don't see the point to multiples though.

I agree, id often back even a 3/1 ew 1/4 the odds.

Colonel Sanders · 14-03-2010 9:42pm

Morgans wrote: »

FWIW, I've no problem putting a horse at less than 5/1 into an ew bet. I think its more than sensible when you are as sure as you can be that the horse wont be out of the first three. I use it as an insurance policy and allow myself a bigger win bet. I think its far more sensible to have an ew bet on a race like that compared to the Grand National, Coral Cup or County Hurdle.

I don't see the point to multiples though.

100% agree. Remember having my proverbials on Punchestowns each way in last year's stayers at 9/2

In any case if you fancy a horse at less than 5/1 win only, often you can back it each way and if you wants get rid of the place part at shorter than you have in your each way bet on the Betfair Place market

I didn't lay Punchestowns for a place but he could have been backed at 4/1 each way last year on the morning of the stayers (=> evens the place) but you could have laid the place at less than 1.7 on Betfair

Colonel Sanders · 14-03-2010 9:44pm

The horse I want to lump on each way this year is L'ami in the cross country

4/1 may be optimistic at this stage (didn't take Hills 4/1 a while back as they weren't NRNB) but 7/2 is on hopefully

Colonel Sanders · 14-03-2010 9:45pm

daboi89 wrote: »

he within the top 6 horses in the betting.

trends for the race( last 5 winners have only won once before the race)
he fits the bill

get on;)

Number 55 in the List at the minute

Can't see it getting into it

cson · 14-03-2010 9:59pm

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

The horse I want to lump on each way this year is L'ami in the cross country

4/1 may be optimistic at this stage (didn't take Hills 4/1 a while back as they weren't NRNB) but 7/2 is on hopefully

Agree with that.

There's a lot to like about L'ami this year, getting weight off Garde Champetre. I can easily see the roles being reversed.

mike65 · 14-03-2010 10:41pm

I'll throw in these for you to pick apart.

Tricky Trickster - Gold Cup
Lake Legend - Coral Cup
Monkerhostin - William Hill Handicap Chase or Cross-Country Chase
General Miller - Supreme
Arctic Magic - Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys Hcap Hurdle

nice1franko · 15-03-2010 10:41am

I'm liking Tricky Trickster for an e/win the GC too. He was impressive as fook in the AON Chase last month and looked like he still had oodles left. Granted, it was an incredible ride by Ruby too.

I'd have loved to see exactly how it'd have played out had The Tank not blown up.

Morgans · 15-03-2010 10:45am

This was the race he won by a short head from Niche Market. I suppose if Niche Market was in the Gold Cup he would be the same price? Twas a prep for the Grand National for both - as is the Gold Cup for Tricky Trickster. He might be best of the rest of course.

Had Denman not fallen by the wayside and run like a 1/7 shot, Ruby wouldnt have ridden Tricky Trickster to win and would have been happy to finish a pretty long way back in third. Job done. That Niche Market chased Denman down on the turn into the straight cost him the race the way things panned out.

nice1franko · 15-03-2010 10:56am

Why would he be happy to sit back in 3rd if he thought he had a chance? If he didn't think he was in with a shout I know he wouldn't go flogging him for nothing but if Denman and Niche Market were battling it out in roughly the same position I don't see why he wouldn't go for it. I'm no expert btw so this is a legit question.

Morgans · 15-03-2010 11:02am

nice1franko wrote: »

Why would he be happy to sit back in 3rd if he thought he had a chance? If he didn't think he was in with a shout I know he wouldn't go flogging him for nothing but if Denman and Niche Market were battling it out in roughly the same position I don't see why he wouldn't go for it. I'm no expert btw so this is a legit question.

He didnt think he had a chance. Clearly he was Nicholls's second string. It was a prep for his main targets later on in the year and winning wasnt the priority. There was a debate for a week after whether or not he had (and Niche market) ruined their grand national chances by winning, and maybe effecting their handicap marks. (they hadnt).

I think Ruby was happy enough to finish second after Denman's unseat until he saw Niche Market falter and gave it pretty much the full gun over the last two. Nice bonus to get up. But in no way was he "impressive as fook" in the context of taking on kauto star et al in the gold cup. Again, he is in fourth place three from home in teh gold cup, he will not be murdered to finish third. If however, he is in with a shout at the second last, Im sure they will try their hardest regardless who is ahead.

Whyno · 15-03-2010 11:03am

nice1franko wrote: »

Why would he be happy to sit back in 3rd if he thought he had a chance? If he didn't think he was in with a shout I know he wouldn't go flogging him for nothing but if Denman and Niche Market were battling it out in roughly the same position I don't see why he wouldn't go for it. I'm no expert btw so this is a legit question.

He wasnt in the race to win.He was in it to school around and give him a blow out for a grand national prep. Why would ruby kick the stones out of him to go try beat denman and we all know how hard denman is to pass. As it turned out denman fell leaving the way clear for TT to go try win his race. How many times did ruby clatter TT after the last. You can be sure of one thing that if denman was still in it at that stage TT would have been minded going home and barely felt the stick once or twice.

nice1franko · 15-03-2010 11:16am

Well there aren't many - or even any - that could be described as "impressive as fook" in the context of Kauto! I meant it in the context of race itself.

Fair point that he won't be murdered to finish 3rd (I should hope so - I've money on him for the GN) ... and I don't expect him to beat Kauto or Denman really - not unless something goes wrong. But it is wrong that things go and he's better than the rest IMO. I can see him up there and at 16-1 or better that's good enough for small one for me.

BTW I've already got my money on Kauto and it'll be the highlight of my festival to see him get the triple.

mike65 · 15-03-2010 11:19am

Reverse Nichols tricast for the Gold Cup might be worth a punt, or a straight forcast indeed.

mdwexford · 15-03-2010 11:28am

TT is not in the same league as Cooldine or IC for that matter.

nice1franko · 15-03-2010 11:38am

In all probability, you're right Morgans/Whyno.

I still think if Ruby saw an opportunity - without having to beat TT half to death - he'd have gone for it. For example, say Denman hits one or more of those those fences very hard but the jock stays on... anyway, enough of the hypotheticals. The only one who knows for sure is Ruby.

Maybe getting one over on McCoy would be a cheeky, further, little motive?

Anyway, I, for one, would still liked to have seen it play out.

BTW, Niche Market was driven with Denman still to beat and he went for it. Why was the game plan different for him - his situation is almost identical to Tricky Tricksters?

nice1franko · 15-03-2010 11:50am

nice1franko wrote: »

BTW, Niche Market was driven with Denman still to beat and he went for it. Why was the game plan different for him - his situation is almost identical to Tricky Tricksters?

Correction to above. Looking at it again (see below for anyone who hasn't seen the race in question) NM was "staying to the task" as the commentator says but as soon as Denman makes that mistake he goes for it.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7PjOgVwco_E

That_Guy · 16-03-2010 9:52am

My each way bets for today.

1.30 General Miller

2.05 Woolcombe Folly

2.40 Offshore Account

3.20 Zaynar

4.00 Silver Birch

4.40 Aura About You. Might also stick something on Sway in this race.