€20 on the Champion Hurdle?

Granemore Hare

Im gonna have a €20 bet in the champion hurdle but i fancy Go Native, which at probable odds of 3/1 would get me €60 max

So i decided to possibly double him up with whatever Enda Bolger has in the X country chase.

Year after year Bolger mops up these types of races, with Garde Champetre (2/1) winning the last 4 over C/D, but i also have a feeling about L'ami (3/1) who has been knocking on the door, so im convinced its one or the other.

Its the same case in the mares hurdle, cant see past Quevega (5/4) or Voler La Vedette (9/4) but its difficult to split the pair, the rest dont count for me.

For my €20 i'd get 4 trebles at €5 with returns from €135 to €260
Go Native/Garde Champetre/Quevega = €135.00
Go Native/Garde Champetre/Voler La Vedette = €195.00
Go Native/L'ami/Quevega = €180.00
Go Native/L'ami/Voler La Vedette = €260.00

In the Arkle its very difficult to make a case for anything out of the first 5 in the betting, all form and in particular stats point to either Captain Cee Bee (5/2), Somersby (4/1), Sizing Europe (11/2), Sports Line (8/1) or Riverside Theatre (8/1) winning the race. I've been a big fan of Captain Cee Bee since Leopardstown even though he fell, and he has the strongest looking form but the more i look it its a hot race in which anything can and annually does go wrong. If anything does happen to the Fav im convinced one of the next 4 will pick up the pieces just not sure which one.

So adding these to the others for my €20 i'd get 20 €1 accumulators with returns ranging from min- €94.50 > (Captain Cee Bee/Go Native/Garde Champetre/Quevega) to max- €468.00 > (Sports Line/Go Native/L'ami/Voler La Vedette) with all bases covered.

This bet is all down to who you fancy in the champion hurdle, the rest is fairly safe in my book.

If you do have another fancy in the champion hurdle eg. Medermit, it'll cost you another €20 to add it in place of Go Native, still keep the Fav in play and cover all the bases eg. Captain Cee Bee/Medermit/Garde Champetre/Quevega returns min- €189.00 and Sports Line/Medermit/L'ami/Voler La Vedette returns max- €936.00

applehunter

Whats wrong with €60?

Nulty

Good thinking. The only thing wrong with €60 is that its not as big as €100.

SEVEN is definitely bigger than three;)

applehunter

A bird in the hand is worth 2 in the bush

The jock

How about:

3 Five euro x doubles
1 Five euro Treble

L'ami 3/1
Quel Esprit 5/1
What a Friend 5/1 w/o Kauto and Denman

Granemore Hare

€20 on the nose on Go Native for €60, or €20 on an accum with a decent chance being on both irish mares in the last race possibly paying €468.00?

SirDelboy18

The jock wrote: »

How about:

3 Five euro x doubles
1 Five euro Treble

L'ami 3/1
Quel Esprit 5/1
What a Friend 5/1 w/o Kauto and Denman

What you refer to is a Trixie.

RichieLawlor

The jock wrote: »

How about:

3 Five euro x doubles
1 Five euro Treble

L'ami 3/1
Quel Esprit 5/1
What a Friend 5/1 w/o Kauto and Denman

Don't think you should bet What A Friend

mdwexford

lol at the original post, do people think theres going to be no winner 10/1 or bigger at all, going to some wake up calls come Tuesday evening

Colonel Sanders

agreed. Even during the punters paradise festival that was 2003 there were some big priced winners in there. Royal Predica at 33/1, Sudden Shock at 25/1 (still haven't recovered from my Stormez bet here!) and Young Spartacus at 16/1 having been much bigger in the morning

Morgans

That was a great festival. Managed to get the first three winners (Back in front, Azertyuiop, and Rooster Booster) Young Spartacus. Backed Stormez as well!! Was conscious of not throwing away a big lead, but PP were going money back if you finished second to Beef or Salmon. Had everything on Best Mate. Then a large one on La Landiere and had a somewhat throwawy bet on Balapour ew in the County at 50s. Had he beaten Spirit Leader, god knows where I'd be today. Paid for my masters did that Cheltenham.

Young Spactacus I think won on his seasonal debut. Both YS and Royal Predica were tipped by Pricewise (Nick Fox) at the time. So many favourites won, no one gave a crap.

cson

Mister McGoldrick in 2008 sticks in the craw. I had had a good look at him having been a decent 3rd at the festival the year before and was going to do him for small stakes e/w but chickened out. Lo and behold he comes in at 66/1.

Having said that; after rowing in on Kauto Star that year I couldn't have asked for a better bail out than Silver Jaro in the last race of the festival.

Now to pick out a similar long odds for this year

I'm looking at I'm Delilah at 66/1 for the Arkle at the moment; seems too big to me considering the horse that beat it by a nose lto is less than half the price. Ferdy Murphy's Cheltenham record wouldn't endear you though.

Morgans

I think Ferdy has a very good cheltenham record. Well able to get them ready for the big day. Not sure Im Delilah is quite good enough, but should outrun her price by a long way. I'd definitely have no qualms about the trainer. Naiad de Misselot, Hot Weld, L'Antartique, etc. Beaten a snot in the race last year.

mdwexford

2003 was the king year alright.
My first year at the track, was holding my own till Thursday when i had 200 on Baracouda at 9/4, 200 on Best Mate at 7/4 and 200 on La Landiere at 5/4, was a good day.

Was only talking to a few people about that Nick Fox tipping year the other day, 33/1 nap Royal Predica on Tuesday, 25/1 nap Young Spartacus on Wednesday, whole world and their dog loaded on his Thursday nap but he couldnt do the treble. Amazing tipping though.

Granemore Hare

Ok.... can any of you see anything other than Quevega or Voler La Vedette winning the mares hurdle? the jessica harrington pair No One Tells Me + Zarinava?...Voler La Vedette has beaten them both twice and soundly on both occasions... once while running a bad race, and has beat the champion hurdle favourite, her form is as good if not better than Quevega's was this time last year.
Who else.. Easter Legend? Caroles Legacy? Argento Luna? does their form even come close?
Quevega has been there and done it and willie mullins is happy to go there without a run, so i would'nt argue with that.

Its a 2 horse race but probably a good one

UrbanSea

I think i'd have quevega before VLV. She hasnt had tough enough competition I think,even though she did beat go native,but in a swamp as far as I remember? Maybe i'm wrong. I think this is one of the more open races,I dont think i'll be going near it,might be an outsider,someone else said it here yesterday

NewApproach

mdwexford wrote: »

lol at the original post, do people think theres going to be no winner 10/1 or bigger at all, going to some wake up calls come Tuesday evening

Wake up calls indeed, I basically said this last night <snip>, lol.

edit: however, since I posted it, it no longer can be read, because it was deemed off topic in relation to the thread up to that point.

bit of a bogey

Granemore Hare wrote: »

Im gonna have a €20 bet in the champion hurdle but i fancy Go Native, which at probable odds of 3/1 would get me €60 max

So i decided to possibly double him up with whatever Enda Bolger has in the X country chase.

Year after year Bolger mops up these types of races, with Garde Champetre (2/1) winning the last 4 over C/D, but i also have a feeling about L'ami (3/1) who has been knocking on the door, so im convinced its one or the other.

Its the same case in the mares hurdle, cant see past Quevega (5/4) or Voler La Vedette (9/4) but its difficult to split the pair, the rest dont count for me.

For my €20 i'd get 4 trebles at €5 with returns from €135 to €260
Go Native/Garde Champetre/Quevega = €135.00
Go Native/Garde Champetre/Voler La Vedette = €195.00
Go Native/L'ami/Quevega = €180.00
Go Native/L'ami/Voler La Vedette = €260.00

In the Arkle its very difficult to make a case for anything out of the first 5 in the betting, all form and in particular stats point to either Captain Cee Bee (5/2), Somersby (4/1), Sizing Europe (11/2), Sports Line (8/1) or Riverside Theatre (8/1) winning the race. I've been a big fan of Captain Cee Bee since Leopardstown even though he fell, and he has the strongest looking form but the more i look it its a hot race in which anything can and annually does go wrong. If anything does happen to the Fav im convinced one of the next 4 will pick up the pieces just not sure which one.

So adding these to the others for my €20 i'd get 20 €1 accumulators with returns ranging from min- €94.50 > (Captain Cee Bee/Go Native/Garde Champetre/Quevega) to max- €468.00 > (Sports Line/Go Native/L'ami/Voler La Vedette) with all bases covered.

This bet is all down to who you fancy in the champion hurdle, the rest is fairly safe in my book.

If you do have another fancy in the champion hurdle eg. Medermit, it'll cost you another €20 to add it in place of Go Native, still keep the Fav in play and cover all the bases eg. Captain Cee Bee/Medermit/Garde Champetre/Quevega returns min- €189.00 and Sports Line/Medermit/L'ami/Voler La Vedette returns max- €936.00

If Go Native losses you have 4 bets down the swanny. He's your first horse in your intended bet so I'd suggest to do him in a single for just say E10. If he wins you can divide up the winnings to do whatever doubles you like. While if he losses, you know where you stand and you have the other E10 left for your other bets.

Your bet might be all down to who you fancy in the champion hurdle but they aint safe in my book!

Colonel Sanders

mdwexford wrote: »

2003 was the king year alright.
My first year at the track, was holding my own till Thursday when i had 200 on Baracouda at 9/4, 200 on Best Mate at 7/4 and 200 on La Landiere at 5/4, was a good day.

Was only talking to a few people about that Nick Fox tipping year the other day, 33/1 nap Royal Predica on Tuesday, 25/1 nap Young Spartacus on Wednesday, whole world and their dog loaded on his Thursday nap but he couldnt do the treble. Amazing tipping though.

What a week!!

I went over hoping if I was up I'd have half of what I was ahead on Best Mate in the Gold Cup. Didn't figure on being ahead a 4 figure sum by the Thursday morning. And yes I still had half of it on Best Mate, still my biggest ever bet.

Left it alone after the Gold Cup but the night of boozing that was had in The Golden Valley that night was legendary!!!