Hurricane Season Poses 'Above-Normal' Threat : AccuWeather

maquiladora

March 10 (Bloomberg) -- The 2010 Atlantic hurricane season will be more active than last year’s and poses an “above- normal” threat to the U.S. Gulf and East coasts, AccuWeather Inc. forecasters said today.

AccuWeather foresees 16 to 18 named storms forming in the Atlantic Ocean, with five becoming hurricanes and two or three of them going ashore in the U.S. as major systems. In all, 15 storms probably will be in the western Atlantic or the Gulf of Mexico, and seven may make landfall in the U.S., said Joe Bastardi, chief long-range and hurricane forecaster.

“This year has the chance to be an extreme season,” Bastardi said in a statement. “Certainly much more like 2008 than 2009 as far as the overall threat to the United States East and Gulf coasts.”

The Gulf of Mexico is home about 27 percent of U.S. oil and 15 percent of U.S. natural gas production, according to the Department of Energy.

Only nine named storms formed during the 2009 season, the fewest in 12 years, and three of them became hurricanes. Last year was the first time since 2006 that no hurricane hit the U.S. mainland. In 2008, there were 16 named storms, and eight of them were hurricanes.

The historical average is for 11 named storms, with six of them becoming hurricanes, two of them major. A tropical storm is given a name when its sustained winds reach 39 miles (63 kilometers) per hour, and it becomes a hurricane when sustained winds reach 74 mph.

Major Storms

A hurricane reaches major status at Category 3 on the five-step Saffir-Simpson scale with winds of at least 111 mph. The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.

Bastardi said he raised his forecast from last year because of a weakening El Nino, the Pacific warming phenomenon that can suppress Atlantic storm development, and because waters are warmer than normal from Africa to the Caribbean while being cooler to the north, a common pattern in major storm seasons.

Colorado State University’s Tropical Meteorology Project made its initial forecast for the season in December, calling for 16 named storms with as many as eight of those becoming hurricanes, five of them major.

WSI Inc. in January predicted 13 named storms and seven hurricanes, three of them major, and the Commodity Weather Group called a month later for 11 named storms, as many as five of them hurricanes.

The federal Climate Prediction Center will release its forecast in May.

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-03-10/hurricane-season-poses-above-normal-threat-accuweather-says.html

Hope its more interesting than 2009....

loup

Does this mean we are more likely to see extreme weather in Ireland during this season (sorry for clueless q, assuming as its Atlantic storms that we will get hit to some extent?)

gbee

loup wrote: »

Does this mean we are more likely to see extreme weather in Ireland during this season

Yes, we always get tail ends, and on a few occasions the storms refresh over the Atlantic and hit us with hurricane force.

Mostly though, they just give us a wetter summer ~

MayoForSam

Fewer hurricanes last year hardly had us sweltering in a heatwave though, did it?

gbee

MayoForSam wrote: »

Fewer hurricanes last year hardly had us sweltering in a heatwave though, did it?

There's the dichotomy. Absolutely.

YFlyer

Had they not got the predictions wrong, by a long shot, over the last three years?