Ireland's chances of retaining the 6N title

Snickers Man

Could Ireland still win this year's championship?

This is all pure speculation and it will be out of date, at least (a complete dead rubber at worst) by the weekend when there are three more results to factor into the equation(s). But at the moment, the mathematical chances of Ireland hanging on to the championship are not as outlandish as you may think.

True, we will need France to lose at home either to Italy (not going to happen) or England (mmm, has been known) while Ireland stuff both Scotland and Wales at Croker. That's been known to happen too.

I only do this maths so you don't have to so bear with me.

At the moment with each team having played three games France is out on top with 6 points and a point difference of + 38. England and Ireland are tied on 4 points with England occupying second place because of a points difference of + 14 compared to Ireland's -1.

The best case scenario for Ireland (assuming both England and France win this weekend's matches against Scotland and Italy respectively), would be if each team won by a single point.

Then if England were to win in Paris by 12 or 13 points, Ireland would win the championship if they beat both Wales and Scotland and the aggregate margin of both victories was 29 points or more. That is the MINIMUM we need, assuming neither Scotland nor Italy do us an unlikely failure.

An English win in Paris by a greater or lesser margin would require Ireland putting more distance between themselves and Scotland or Wales or both.

Of course, expecting such close contests between England and France and their opponents next weekend is mere wishful thinking. A big French win over Italy would virtually guarantee them the title, even if they were to lose to Engalnd in their last game. But Italy's defence is doughty this year, as everybody is learning. So a cricket score between these countries (neither of whom would know what the hell a cricket score is) is also unlikely.

A French margin of 20 points or more over Italy would leave Ireland needing to post an aggregate of 50+ points over the course of two victories over Wales and Scotland. That's a challenge.

But a more modest French win over Italy could leave the door open.

Say France were to win by 12 points, and then England were to beat them by a similar margin.

In that case, Ireland would win if a combined margin of victory over Scotland and Wales were around 40 points. A tough ask but achievable.


Regardless of results affecting other countries, Ireland have to aim to beat Scotland and Wales by a combined total of 29 points, with a more useful target being 40-45 points. If the former margin is achieved, we have a mathematical possibility. If the latter is achieved, it becomes a probability. Although we still depend on England doing us a favour.

Could happen though.

Calculator will be taken out again after this weekend, just in case.

smurphy29

I would say forget it, and Kidney will not have any notion of trying to make this happen. We have two tough test games to win and Kidney will be looking to do just that - any notion of flinging the ball around in order to chase down improbable points targets could not be further from the coach's mind, I would guess.

France are home and hosed in any case, and could easily run up a big score against Italy, who will probably be more likely to target a big prformance against Wales the following week.

Podge_irl

To be honest, England are more likely to win the thing than we are with the way things have panned out. Considering Ireland's poor points difference we would need France to lose by a lot to England (not beyond the bounds of possibility, but I don't think France are quite as flaky this year), but that just puts England futher ahead! This Ireland team also just doesn't do hammerings. The way they play the game they are just not going to put cricket scores on either Wales or Scotland - I'd be amazed if there is more than a score or two in it. It's one of those ironies that I would actually have greater faith in EOS's Ireland team to manage victory from here than Kidney's.

The only way I could see Ireland nicking it is for England to lose to Scotland and then beat France - not particularly likely.

anonymous_joe

Personally, I don't think so. If I was putting money on it, my money would be on France to win against (eh... Italy this weekend? right?) and Scotland to lose the Calcutta Cup to the Sassanachs.

The only realistic way for us to win it would be for England to beat France and lose to Scotland, and us to somehow magic a -9 points differential into a +70 or so. Not going to happen.

buck65

France will win the grand Slam. They deserve it. We, and the rest are miles behind them.

Podge_irl

buck65 wrote: »

We, and the rest are miles behind them.

I don't know how true that is. Wales ran them quite close and they were hardly that impressive against Scotland. They demolished Ireland alright, but they've always had the ability to step up their game, they still need to demonstrate that they've added consistency before they can really be recognised as being that far ahead of the rest.

buck65

buck65 wrote: »

France will win the grand Slam. They deserve it. We, and the rest are miles behind them.

Exactly,France are so far ahead of every one that if someone else won the 6 nations it would be an absolute mugging.
They fully deserve the GS and if they achieve it (which I expect them to) will have done it in a much more convincing fashion than we did.

mink_man

buck65 wrote: »

France will win the grand Slam. They deserve it. We, and the rest are miles behind them.

how do they deserve it after playing 3 games in a 5 game tournament? if they win 5/5 then they deserve the grand slam.

mink_man

mink_man wrote: »

how do they deserve it after playing 3 games in a 5 game tournament? if they win 5/5 then they deserve the grand slam.

Because they dispatched 2 of the best 3 teams in convincing fashion,they are clearly the best team in europe,regardless of whether they win the grandslam.

irishbucsfan

Daniela Spicy Thud wrote: »

Because they dispatched 2 of the best 3 teams in convincing fashion,they are clearly the best team in europe,regardless of whether they win the grandslam.

What was convincing about their win over Wales? They could have easilly lost that game, and if they had the 6 nations would be wide open again.

If France played like they did against us every time they played I'd be impressed by them, but as it is I feel their inconsistency really detracts from my ability to respect them as a rugby team.


The 6 Nations is out of our control completely, France could throw it away by losing to England, but even then England would be in control. We don't really have much of a chance this year.

durkadurka

Dream on. No chance.

Most likely scenario is we we beat Scotland and Wales by a score.
France give Italy a hiding, and if they lose to england, its by 3 points or something.

France would have to have a disaster to blow it from here. Plus they are playing the last game on the last weekend. they'll know exactly what they have to do.

Judgement Day

buck65 wrote: »

France will win the grand Slam. They deserve it. We, and the rest are miles behind them.

As the song goes..

There'll always be an England,
And England shall be free
If England means as much to you
As England means to me.

What have we got to lose at this stage and there's always payback due for Hastings - 944 years of oppression but who's counting?
[URL="javascript:popupWindow('http://vinylstickersdirect.co.uk/index.php?main_page=popup_image&pID=36&zenid=358cf54f4c2696c900cf627f00671c3e')"][/URL]

funky penguin

Daniela Spicy Thud wrote: »

Because they dispatched 2 of the best 3 teams in convincing fashion,they are clearly the best team in europe,regardless of whether they win the grandslam.

Best team in Europe yes, deserve to win the GS, yes IF they win it.

Miles ahead of us? Nonesense. One emotional win (for them) against us does not create a grand canyon of difference between us.

Ciaran-Irl

The most likely way to a championship with for us would be Scotland beating England and then England bouncing back and thrashing France. We would then have to hammer Scotland & Wales at home.

Very, very, very, very, very unlikely. Still the 'most' likely.

The problem is that even if England beat France, they are likely to put a cricket score on Italy at the weekend, so they will take the championship on points.

Lets not act like a triple crown is meaningless though. There are countless men alive that played for Ireland and would give their left arm to have won a triple crown.

thomond2006

funky penguin wrote: »

Best team in Europe yes, deserve to win the GS, yes IF they win it.

Miles ahead of us? Nonesense. One emotional win (for them) against us does not create a grand canyon of difference between us.

You've summed it up there.

walshb

I think Wales was the chance vs. France for Ireland to be in with a shout.

I don't see France slipping up vs. England. I will be rooting for the English but
a betting man would have to favour the French

danthefan

We have no chance. Even if France lose to England and we win our two games our points difference combined with our bland style means they'd win it anyway.

funky penguin

funky penguin wrote: »

Best team in Europe yes, deserve to win the GS, yes IF they win it.

Miles ahead of us? Nonesense. One emotional win (for them) against us does not create a grand canyon of difference between us.

Oh really,I beg to differ.

They have better players than us,simple really.
They won in NZ during the summer and have almost ridiculous strength in depth.

In their front row they can probably field 3 units better than we can,Their back 3 depth is insane as is their backrow.
They are miles better than anything in the NH when they play at the top of their game.The question has always been consistency but if they are they are top dogs when on song.

wixfjord

Daniela Spicy Thud wrote: »

Oh really,I beg to differ.

They have better players than us,simple really.
They won in NZ during the summer and have almost ridiculous strength in depth.

In their front row they can probably field 3 units better than we can,Their back 3 depth is insane as is their backrow.
They are miles better than anything in the NH when they play at the top of their game.The question has always been consistency but if they are they are top dogs when on song.

I agree, bar 10 and BOD, and possibly FB, France are a far better team than us, and these positions matter little when you have such a dominant forward pack, and a 100 stone centre! Remember as well the injuries they had against us, and the players that didnt start.

wixfjord

wixfjord wrote: »

I agree, bar 10 and BOD, and possibly FB, France are a far better team than us, and these positions matter little when you have such a dominant forward pack, and a 100 stone centre! Remember as well the injuries they had against us, and the players that didnt start.

The only Irish players that would make the French team are imo,
Ferris for oudrago (sp) remember dusitoir is an openside.
Bod
Kearney-maybe
Bowe-maybe
Poc-Maybe

and thats about it.

People will probably argue about Bowe,can Bowe do this and this lad cant even make their team

If the Lions were able to pick french players,how many home nations players would make the team?
Not many

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zZScVM8Ta-0

funky penguin

Daniela Spicy Thud wrote: »

Oh really,I beg to differ.

And you're quite entitled to.

siltirocker

Daniela Spicy Thud wrote: »

The only Irish players that would make the French team are imo,
Ferris for oudrago (sp) remember dusitoir is an openside.
Bod
Kearney-maybe
Bowe-maybe
Poc-Maybe

and thats about it.

People will probably argue about Bowe,can Bowe do this and this lad cant even make their team

I don't know about that. Flannery, Heaslip, i'd prefer ROG/Sexton to Trinh-Duc, Darcy maybe as well.

thomond2006

Domingo
Flannery
Mas
Nallet
POC
Ferris
Dusautoir
Harinordoquy
Parra
Sexton
Clerc/Heymans
Jauzion
BOD
Bowe
Kearney

BoarHunter

i wouldn't put Flannery on top of Servat nor Swarsewski. POC yes ( even if he is not in great form these days )

Ferris for ouedrago yes but bonnaire i don't know.

Sexton Yes

BOD Of course- he would make any side in the world in my opinion.

Bowe NO- we have too many class wingers- we don't need Bowe
kearney - NO not suited to the french type of full back and our game.

siltirocker

siltirocker wrote: »

I don't know about that. Flannery, Heaslip, i'd prefer ROG/Sexton to Trinh-Duc, Darcy maybe as well.

Flannery wouldnt get near Servat,he might make the bench.

Heaslip and Harinoduque (sp) are much of a much ness,I dont see how either of our 10's are any better than Trin-Duc

funky penguin wrote: »

And you're quite entitled to.

Its true,there is a reason the SH teams think france are the best team in europe and the only team they remotely fear.
They are the only ones that can beat them away or the AB's at all in our case,who do you think would currently make the French team?

Risteard

Being perfectly honest, the only thing that really hinders the French is the fact that their players play so much. Possibly a tendency to underestimate opposition on some occasions but their talent is superb.

If they had as much rest as our players, talented as our guys are, they would be a real force and regularly beat SH teams IMO. The sheer number of top clubs in France ensure that there'll always be quality players around and the fact there's a salary cap being introduced next year with a maximum percentage of foreign players will only be worse for us.

When you look at their 14 teams (or 13 minus Toulon ) and you compare to the 3 teams we have, it's no wonder they have so much strength in depth and makes the Connacht situation even more ridiculous. Someone like Parra who's 21 has a wealth of experience playing top rugby where lot's of young players here generally wait until their mid-twenties before they get regular runs, unless they're pretty outstanding ala Fitz and Earls.

The only Irish players that would make the French team IMO are POC,Ferris and BOD.

anonymous_joe

Risteard wrote: »

Being perfectly honest, the only thing that really hinders the French is the fact that their players play so much. Possibly a tendency to underestimate opposition on some occasions but their talent is superb.

If they had as much rest as our players, talented as our guys are, they would be a real force and regularly beat SH teams IMO. The sheer number of top clubs in France ensure that there'll always be quality players around and the fact there's a salary cap being introduced next year with a maximum percentage of foreign players will only be worse for us.

When you look at their 14 teams (or 13 minus Toulon ) and you compare to the 3 teams we have, it's no wonder they have so much strength in depth and makes the Connacht situation even more ridiculous. Someone like Parra who's 21 has a wealth of experience playing top rugby where lot's of young players here generally wait until their mid-twenties before they get regular runs, unless they're pretty outstanding ala Fitz and Earls.

The only Irish players that would make the French team IMO are POC,Ferris and BOD.

Pretty much sums up my view on where international rugby is at the moment.

The Aussies play too little, New Zealand have the perfect amount, but always try and tinker with it, we're doing things perfectly as our Wales and Scotland (for whom it's not working) while South Africa have a handy enough run in, while England and France constantly shoot themselves in the foot.

England's World Cup win was far and away the most impressive, because of all teams to win it, they were the team with the worst system to be operating within.

funky penguin

Daniela Spicy Thud wrote: »

They are the only ones that can beat them away or the AB's at all in our case,who do you think would currently make the French team?

I don't care, I think its a moot point. A team comprising of Irish and French could play awful, or set the world on fire. I don't know, and we never will.

What we DO know is that Ireland have been playing quite consistently over the last year and a half or so. As pointed out above, we have such a small pool of resources to take from in comparison to the French, yet we have been more consistent than them recently.

Yes, they beat the All-Blacks, but we succeeded in beating the World Champions. Went a whole calender year without loosing. Thats FANTASTIC! Such a brilliant step in the right direction, especially with regards to confidence.

This team is capable of beating France, we know that so don't go thinking they're light years ahead of us. We're world class and negative thoughts like being "miles behind" only serve to feed a sense of "second class". We need to start asking "how are we going to win this?", not "are we"?

But look, its just my opinion on one of many rugby forums in the world. Won't change anything.

anonymous_joe

funky penguin wrote: »

I don't care, I think its a moot point. A team comprising of Irish and French could play awful, or set the world on fire. I don't know, and we never will.

What we DO know is that Ireland have been playing quite consistently over the last year and a half or so. As pointed out above, we have such a small pool of resources to take from in comparison to the French, yet we have been more consistent than them recently.

Yes, they beat the All-Blacks, but we succeeded in beating the World Champions. Went a whole calender year without loosing. Thats FANTASTIC! Such a brilliant step in the right direction, especially with regards to confidence.

This team is capable of beating France, we know that so don't go thinking they're light years ahead of us. We're world class and negative thoughts like being "miles behind" only serve to feed a sense of "second class". We need to start asking "how are we going to win this?", not "are we"?

But look, its just my opinion on one of many rugby forums in the world. Won't change anything.

Keep in mind that Ireland and France are both pretty much the ultimate examples of the contrast between rotation and consistency. France have probably got the best depth in the world at the moment, despite having less players than England, South Africa and little more than the Aussies. They've huge variety, but need it.

We've f all variety, but that does give rise to massive consistency.

I could pick a rake of international standard units for the French at front row, second row or back row.

For Ireland, you could manage at best half a front row, a couple of second row units, and a good chunk of back rows. The back row is probably the only position in which we've got depth.

Again, neither system is ideal, perfect, however you choose to call it, both have advantages.

Personally, I think numbers will always be most likely to win, but our system, with its consistent and effective team building processes is definitely bloody competitive.

funky penguin

I completely agree, and I'd go on to say its necessary with the player pool we have. I hope with the growing popularity with the sport that it will widen and we'll get some more players to chose from....but with only 4 teams to select from, choices of match fit players will always be short in comparison to zee French.

Diamondmaker

funky penguin wrote: »

Best team in Europe yes, deserve to win the GS, yes IF they win it.

Miles ahead of us? Nonesense. One emotional win (for them) against us does not create a grand canyon of difference between us.

Ah c'mon. the French outclass and hammer us every year. We have won once since 2000, thats 2 in 12 games including, the RWC - where we also got hammered. :mad:

I think its fair to say that the French are streets ahead of us, always have been and even during our best recent history, still are...

We are fooling ourselves by believing that cos we can beat the other teams therefore we are some how not far of the French...

Podge_irl

Diamondmaker wrote: »

Ah c'mon. the French outclass and hammer us every year. We have won once since 2000, thats 2 in 12 games including, the RWC - where we also got hammered. :mad:

I think its fair to say that the French are streets ahead of us, always have been and even during our best recent history, still are...

We are fooling ourselves by believing that cos we can beat the other teams therefore we are some how not far of the French...

Ireland won in 2000, 2001, 2003 and 2009, so not quite as bad as you make out.

Chucky the tree

Until Ireland can win away to the SH or even France then no one will eve consider us a thread, especially for WC. While yes, being able to say you went a whole Calender year without losing is fantastic when you look at who we played, and the fact they were all at home doesn't quite make it as fantastic. I think people need to be a bit realistic, Ireland have never shown they can beat anyone on their day, France have done it both home and away.

Snickers Man

Podge_irl wrote: »

Ireland won in 2000, 2001, 2003 and 2009, so not quite as bad as you make out.

That's four out of the last 11 6N encounters. And it's with our best ever team!

Care to push the boat out a little further? No need. Uncle Snickers has done it for you.

I first started watching international rugby in 1969. Yes. I'm that old!

Just considering 5N/6N matches, here is our record over that period of time.

v Italy P11 W11 D0 L0 Win/loss percentate: 100%
v Scotland P40 W19 D2 L19 Win/loss percentage: 50%
v Wales P40 W19 D2 L19 Win/loss percentage: 50%
v England P42 W20 D0 L22 Win/loss percentage: 48%
v France P42 W9 D3 L30 Win/loss percentage: 25%


As you can see, our record against France is demonstrably worse than those against the other "home" nations. We ALWAYS find it very difficult against those guys.

Podge_irl

Snickers Man wrote: »

That's four out of the last 11 6N encounters. And it's with our best ever team!

Well yeah, but better than the 2 out of 12 that was claimed!

I do find it interesting/frustrating that Ireland appear to have a real problem with playing France. France themselves are hardly beacons of consistency and in that regard I don't consider them to be leagues ahead of the rest of the NH or any other such hyperbole. There's a reason we kept coming second on points difference in the 6N, and it's cause France are not imperious.

That said, if Ireland met France in a crunch match I'd back France every single time.

BoarHunter

If you want to have a clear idea of a nation's level, the only way to really know is to look the world cups.
6 nations are too influenced by everyone's domestic league calendars.

The only competition when all the teams come with the same amount of preparation.

players are all rested, fit and at their best.

France failed only once to be in the last 4 and finished twice second.( should have played the finale in 95 TBH, without a doubtful political refereing against SA in semi ).

Ireland never did better than 8th to 5th position since 1987

Diamondmaker

Podge_irl wrote: »

Ireland won in 2000, 2001, 2003 and 2009, so not quite as bad as you make out.

Sorry I was confusing my 2 stats, I was recalling that we had not won since BODs hattrick ( in Paris ). We have not won away to them since 2000 and only 3 times since in 11.

They are the sole reason why we have not won the GS or the 6N on numerous occasions and are capable of putting silly scores on us even when we are beating the other teams....

Its not as bad as my original assertion but its no where near a positive stat and there is more argument to say they are streets ahead than not I would say..

I have many bad Paris memories most recently the RWC where I went from Nantes sans Ticket, bought from a scalper and then slept on the airport flooor afterwards in my misery..

Character Building...I hate Paris :mad:

buck65

Ireland's chances of retaining it are the same as Daniela Spicy Thud and wixfjord ever agreeing with me....wait! what's happening!!

funky penguin

funky penguin wrote: »

I don't care, I think its a moot point. A team comprising of Irish and French could play awful, or set the world on fire. I don't know, and we never will.

What we DO know is that Ireland have been playing quite consistently over the last year and a half or so. As pointed out above, we have such a small pool of resources to take from in comparison to the French, yet we have been more consistent than them recently.

Yes, they beat the All-Blacks, but we succeeded in beating the World Champions. Went a whole calender year without loosing. Thats FANTASTIC! Such a brilliant step in the right direction, especially with regards to confidence.

This team is capable of beating France, we know that so don't go thinking they're light years ahead of us. We're world class and negative thoughts like being "miles behind" only serve to feed a sense of "second class". We need to start asking "how are we going to win this?", not "are we"?

But look, its just my opinion on one of many rugby forums in the world. Won't change anything.

Firstly,NZ would have beaten us,of that I am sure.They are a better team than SA regardless of the tri nations.

You seem to be getting to emotionally involved in this discussion,I agree its great that we went unbeaten and we are a very good team but France are simply better if they play to their full potential and have better players if you cant see that you are deluded.

They have better players,more depth,have beaten the SH teams numerously.
Look at this year,we are the team to beat and they absolutely hockey us.


We are around 5th in the world ranking I think and that about right.

I think the main area we will always struggle is the handling skills of our tight 5,you look at their players in the tight 5.They are very skillful,mostly fast great scrummagers and they have far better handling skills.

The try that their hooker scored,we dont have a hooker will that dynamism,he is a beast who showed more dynamism then I have ever seen from irish props since wood.
Their offloading game is superb and that where we will always struggle,I think Poc is a great player but he has some of the worst hands I have ever seen,not that any other Irish locks have brilliant hands either.

On the other hand,Tony Buckley has some of the best handling skills I have ever seen in a TH some of his offloads are sublime but unfortunately his scrummaging is weak.

You cant afford to carry passengers like Hayes and expect to dominate.His current form means we may aswell have 14 players on the pitch.

Our backrow is very close to theirs,its probably around even but I always think we will struggle because of our tight 5.alot of that is to blame on the way we play rugby,i.e the fowards handling skills dont improve because of the way the game is played here and the climate doesnt help and the fact that at underage level we dont scrummage properly.

You can change the underage scrummaging problem but we will never play the game in the same way as NZ,Aus,France and so our fowards will always struggle in a high intensity offloading game and thats whats required at the top.

funky penguin

Daniela Spicy Thud wrote: »

Firstly,NZ would have beaten us,of that I am sure.They are a better team than SA regardless of the tri nations.

You seem to be getting to emotionally involved in this discussion,I agree its great that we went unbeaten and we are a very good team but France are simply better if they play to their full potential and have better players if you cant see that you are deluded.

They have better players,more depth,have beaten the SH teams numerously.
Look at this year,we are the team to beat and they absolutely hockey us.


We are around 5th in the world ranking I think and that about right.

*sigh*

I never said we were better than France. In fact I said the opposite.

In fact all I said is that they aren't miles ahead of us. And you've just confirmed that for me by citing the world rankings....in which we are just under a point below France who are in fourth.

But, you see I'm getting emotionally involved and I'm deluded, so I must be wrong. I would hate to think that my positive thinking would get in the way of you supporting Ireland Goose, so I suggest you just ignore me, because that is what I'm doing to you from now on.

funky penguin

funky penguin wrote: »

*sigh*

I never said we were better than France. In fact I said the opposite.

In fact all I said is that they aren't miles ahead of us. And you've just confirmed that for me by citing the world rankings....in which we are just under a point below France who are in fourth.

But, you see I'm getting emotionally involved and I'm deluded, so I must be wrong. I would hate to think that my positive thinking would get in the way of you supporting Ireland Goose, so I suggest you just ignore me, because that is what I'm doing to you from now on.

Ok in English

1-NZ
2-SA
3-Aus
4-France
Daylight....
Daylight......
5-Ireland

We are absolutely miles behind them in depth,skills and worlld class players.

And that is me being a realist,doesnt mean I am any less of an Irish fan.

Snickers Man

Podge_irl wrote: »

I do find it interesting/frustrating that Ireland appear to have a real problem with playing France. France themselves are hardly beacons of consistency and in that regard I don't consider them to be leagues ahead of the rest of the NH

I have a theory about this!

In the days when the Five Nations games were strictly rotated, Ireland always played France the weekend after France played Scotland and Ireland had the day off. This meant that we usually had a four or five week layoff since our last match before taking on the French.

Now in the years in which we play in Paris, France have to play in Murrayfield. For many years, France had a terrible time of it in Scotland. All through the 1980s they never won there, usually because that was the ground on which they chose to demonstrate what you describe as their tendency to be "hardly beacons of consistency".

So they would get whopped, they would come back to Paris smarting and in need of redemption, we would turn up full of confidence because they had played badly and then we would get crucified. For years, there was no such thing as a "match" between Ireland and France in Paris. It was one-way traffic slaughter. We never scored a try there between 1980 and 1998!

From the late 90s onward, we have occasionally given them a bit of a game in Paris and even won once.

In Dublin, it has usually been a bit tighter.