Paddy Power Weather Bets

octo

Has anyone seen the Paddy Power weather bets?

The Big Freeze Friday 30th April 2010, 22:00
Singles Only. Settled in accordance with Met Eireann & The Met Office. Applies to 2010 as a whole.
Wettest on record in UK 6/1
Wettest on record in Rep. of Ire 6/1
Driest on record in UK 8/1
Driest on record in Rep. of Ire 8/1
Hottest on record in UK 10/1
Hottest on record in Rep. of Ire 10/1
Coldest on record in UK 4/1
Coldest on record in Rep. of Ire 5/1
White Christmas in London (Heathrow)3/1
White Christmas in Dublin (Dub Airport) 3/1

I'm very curious about how they're going to judge some of these, AFAIK Met Eireann don't make pronouncements like that for the nation as a whole.I'd say the driest on record mightn't be a bad bet. Anyone else? And I'd definitely wager a tenner on the hottest year for 2011, but not this year after the January and February we've just had.

Speak Now

All are brutal prices aren't they!

Top 8 bets all have to be records and odds are 10/1 or less :rolleyes:

As for 3/1 for a white Christmas in Dublin :pac:

Good old Paddy Power stinginess is alive and well.

As regards your bet bet on driest year on record just remember Feb/Mar were 2 of the 3 driest months last year.
Do you know what the driest year on record is?

Deep Easterly

I'd not rule out a warm year this year even. A hot summer and Autunm could well cancel out, if not negate, the initial chill. Globally, there is a lot of anomolous warmth around, it is only a matter of time til this starts to etch its way towards us! :P

I have a strange feeling this year could also end up very wet despite the current dry spell. I'd put a fiver on that anyways! :pac:


Hopefully Ken Ring can give us some tips...

Kippure

Heres a good bet, That the tempeture doesnt rise above 15 celicus before the 1st of june.

Would paddy power take it?

octo

Kippure wrote: »

Heres a good bet, That the tempeture doesnt rise above 15 celicus before the 1st of june.

Would paddy power take it?

Well, considering that the mean daily max temperature for Shannon in May is 15.3, I'd say they'd be delighted to take your bet.

Kippure

octo wrote: »

Well, considering that the mean daily max temperature for Shannon in May is 15.3, I'd say they'd be delighted to take your bet.

For this year, Forget about the mean.

Deep Easterly

Kippure wrote: »

Heres a good bet, That the tempeture doesnt rise above 15 celicus before the 1st of june.

Would paddy power take it?

I'd be very surprised if 15c wasn't reached before the end of this month not mind June. May usually see's the first 20c being reached somewhere in Ireland, and that is a figure that can be reached, and sometimes surpassed, in April.

Personally, I am hoping for a warm April and May. I hope it reaches 30c

Kippure

Deep Easterly wrote: »

I'd be very surprised if 15c wasn't reached before the end of this month not mind June. May usually see's the first 20c being reached somewhere in Ireland, and that is a figure that can be reached, and sometimes surpassed, in April.

Personally, I am hoping for a warm April and May. I hope it reaches 30c

Well the way things are going, I havent seen 9c in a long long time.

It would prove to me that the models have a mild bias. Thats for another thread.

Deep Easterly

Kippure wrote: »

Well the way things are going, I havent seen 9c in a long long time.

It would prove to me that the models have a mild bias. Thats for another thread.

You are probably right, although short-term models I think have been under-doing day time temps for Ireland over the last few days as day time temps are not all that far from average overall, being just a little below at worst.

It really wouldn't take much for temps to lift to 15c though before the end of the month, especially in lower lying parts, although nothing like this is really being modelled in the medium term so far.

John mac

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Personally, I am hoping for a warm April and May. I hope it reaches 30c

I got 36.7 today.

(in the polytunnel )

octo

Kippure wrote: »

Well the way things are going, I havent seen 9c in a long long time.

It would prove to me that the models have a mild bias. Thats for another thread.

There are several stations right now reporting over 10 degrees over on http://irelandsweather.com/

ninebeanrows

octo wrote: »

There are several stations right now reporting over 10 degrees over on http://irelandsweather.com/

There means though negated by the probable -5c minima

M.T. Cranium

I think you could rule out warmest or coldest year already, because if it comes in near average April to December, the cold start will guarantee it won't be anywhere near warmest, and whatever stands as coldest is probably safe too (no doubt 1740 in the UK).

The one bet that might work out would be driest year, by the 20% mark of this year both Ireland and the UK would be on approximate course towards that mark. This reduces the chances of wettest year verifying although obviously it could still happen.

If you're thinking white Christmas, I would wait for those odds to go up a bit later in the year when they are trying to entice betting. You might have a better idea then as well. The only factor pointing to a white Christmas being more likely than usual at this point is the general downturn in temperatures since late 2007. That doesn't make it "likely" but more likely than the 3-1 odds might imply, at least it's not the least valuable bet on offer there.

They should make their terms a bit more transparent so you know what historical range they consider. There's very little chance that any year in the next twenty would be as cold as 1740 was in the U.K., it was almost three degrees below the long-term averages and closer to four degrees below the more recent averages. But if they are only looking at the past fifty years then there is some chance.