That guys "tip"

Nulty

That guy who said he got a "tip" for Khyber Kim and stuck €100 on -

PP special til 9pm = Khyber Kim @ 12/1

Vanbis

Nulty wrote: »

That guy who said he got a "tip" for Khyber Kim and stuck €100 on -

PP special til 9pm = Khyber Kim @ 12/1

That would be myself Nulty. I noticed it odds jumped up to 12/1 this morning on PP. Myself and a few friends have backed this horse heavily, so heres hoping it comes through.

mohican22

cheers huge value there,i've just backed him e.w.

Colonel Sanders

This obviously means bookies are starting their X days to go => we'll lay X/1 on a certain bet as a special. Might be good value in perming some of the shorties next week. This is surely an arb with the Betfair lay price?

Nulty

I'd like to see him run a good race because I had him in the Greatwood. He's a likeable type but he'd need to be 16's because I think Celestial Halo will be better at Chelt than his recent form, Zaynar is not out of it by any stretch and I fancy Solwhit and Go Native to get home before him. Punjabi I'm not entirely convinced of but he did it last year...

RoundyMooney

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

This obviously means bookies are starting their X days to go => we'll lay X/1 on a certain bet as a special. Might be good value in perming some of the shorties next week. This is surely an arb with the Betfair lay price?

Big time!

BF lay @11.5 but that will fall IMO.

Knobs

Nulty wrote: »

That guy who said he got a "tip" for Khyber Kim and stuck €100 on -

PP special til 9pm = Khyber Kim @ 12/1

Place lay for me:D


One of us will be happy

venividivici

Just seen this thread now, below is my post in the tips, hunches, certs thread...


Tuesdays picks:

Sup. Nov.: Peddler's Cross (if it goes in this race)
Arkle: Captain Cee Bee
Will. Hill.: Exmoor Ranger
Champ. Hdl.: Khymber Kim (my best bet of the festival)*
X Ctry.: L'Ami
Dav. Nich.: Voler La Vedette



*I was chatting to Nigel T-D on a flight from Glasgow and he told me, 'don't mind Dunguib, Kim will pay your mortgage!' He also mentioned Sublimity as the only horse they were slightly worried about but they were still certain of beating him and as I'm sure everyone knows now Sublimity doesn't run. That's my bit of insider info anyway. Good luck all.

mohican22

I hope your for real veni as i've had a nice bet on him.

venividivici

mohican22 wrote: »

I hope your for real veni as i've had a nice bet on him.

I'm not in the game of bull****ting people, BUT, what people do with their money is not my business!! How many 'tips' have you got that are supposedly 'certs' but have trailed in nearer last than first, I know I've had a few anyway!!
Good luck with the festival.

mohican22

Apologies if it sounded like i thought u mite be dreaming and as for how tips ive got that've lost prob in the thousands;)

Radioheader

Hi, I am not an expert on racing - only took it up the last few years. To bring me up the learning curve, could someone explain where my thinking is wrong on this. I look on his runs over good/soft or better ground and see them as being quiet average whereas his runs on soft ground have been generally excellent. I would have thought this significant given the expected ground at Cheltenham

Is your general argument that he has improved markedly as a horse since his runs in Aintree and Cheltenham last spring, and his two runs in Cheltenham, despite the ground, should be taken for what they are, substantial form.

Sorry for the very novicey and long question!

venividivici

Radioheader wrote: »

Hi, I am not an expert on racing - only took it up the last few years. To bring me up the learning curve, could someone explain where my thinking is wrong on this. I look on his runs over good/soft or better ground and see them as being quiet average whereas his runs on soft ground have been generally excellent. I would have thought this significant given the expected ground at Cheltenham

Is your general argument that he has improved markedly as a horse since his runs in Aintree and Cheltenham last spring, and his two runs in Cheltenham, despite the ground, should be taken for what they are, substantial form.

Sorry for the very novicey and long question!

I fully agree regarding the ground, I had a look over his form again lastnight and thought Oh No please rain!! But I'm not gonna argue with Nigel T-D, if he, or any other trainer tells me his horse is gonna win, I'm gonna back it! Good point anyway and it's definitely something for everyone to take into consideration.

Morgans

Radioheader wrote: »

Hi, I am not an expert on racing - only took it up the last few years. To bring me up the learning curve, could someone explain where my thinking is wrong on this. I look on his runs over good/soft or better ground and see them as being quiet average whereas his runs on soft ground have been generally excellent. I would have thought this significant given the expected ground at Cheltenham

Is your general argument that he has improved markedly as a horse since his runs in Aintree and Cheltenham last spring, and his two runs in Cheltenham, despite the ground, should be taken for what they are, substantial form.

Sorry for the very novicey and long question!

Very sound question I think. There is no real reason why Celestial Halo should reverse form with him. KK had always run well fresh for Nicky Henderson and some were willing to say his Greatwood form as typical Twiston-Davies autumn glory. However the Bula win means that it may be that Twiston-Davies has found the key to the horse. I don't think his form is particularly ground dependent, its more that the trainer stumbled across the secret for getting the best out of the horse consistently. To me, he is the strongest english contender - but you have to take it on trust that NTD has him in the same form again and maybe even improve him a touch. NTD did it very well keeping Imperial Commander fresh for the Ryanair last year. I think he is a live player.

UrbanSea

Every time I look at the race I find him more and more appealing.
What I don't understand is how dunguib is 5/1 in the market (with a run) I understand he wont be but that has to be one of the worst prices I've ever seen

Morgans

5/1 WAR now, is better than the 4/1 WAR that was available around November. Still, the silliest was the money for Mikhael D'Haguenet for the champion hurdle in January.

UrbanSea

Haha I didn't even see that.
I just wouldn't know why he would be put up ahead of say zaynar (even before his kelso loss) or medermit or punjabi etc etc. And I saw him at 3/1 fav WAR in pp a few weeks ago. Had to look twice to be sure it was right

bit of a bogey

Kyber Kim has obvious claims in the champion hurdle but I disagree that 8/1 is great value. He is deservedly around an 8/1 shot!

I am confident that he will improve from his last run but he really needs to to improve if he is to have a chance in the champion hurdle.

He's a horse who had very average novice form. So average that that he was tried over fences. The positives are that his only two impressive runs where this year and were around cheltenham. But looking at the form of them races with hindsight, neither look special.

In the greatwood he beat harry tricker (a good handicapper at best) and merdermit. While in the boylesports he beat Celestal Halo by 2 lenghts (whilst getting 4lbs!), with Medermit back in 3rd and Punjabi in 4th.

We all know that punjabi was only having a blow in his first run of the season that day. The first time he'll be in peak condition will be next tuesday. Medermit also needed both runs. Apparently he's hard to get fully fit. Also it is well known that alan kings horses were under the weather around the time.

Celestial Halo has been very disappointing this season. Since finished 9L behind Solwhit at Leopardstown with donnas palm and sublimity finishing in front. That leaves Khyber Kim with alot to find with a line through that form.

Kyber Kim hasnt run since the boylesports and while I normally would see that as a negative, I dont in this case. Twiston Davies horses are always in top shape on their early season runs but often bottom out before the end of the season. He seems to be easier on this horse and keeping him a little fresh maybe the key. No doubt, NTD is the right man to turn a horse out without a run!

Im not saying kyber Kim wont win as I do think he'll improve since his last run. But he does have a bit to find. He's done nothing to stand out yet and also may need the ground to be on the soft side.

mdwexford

He doesnt need to improve or have anything to find, he has a 167 performance this season which is as good as any other 2 mile hurdler.

He beat Harry Tricker comfortably giving him around a stone and a half, winning the Greatwood off that mark was a very good run. The Boylesports run is solid and arguably the best 2 mile run this season.

The whole Punjabi not being fit thing is being overdone, they are all being trained to peak next Tuesday.

I agree hes only fair price at the moment, nothing more.

UrbanSea

I can't see punjabi improving that drastically to win it this year,I think the field is much better than last year's

bit of a bogey

mdwexford wrote: »

........... he has a 167 performance this season which is as good as any other 2 mile hurdler............

.........He beat Harry Tricker comfortably giving him around a stone and a half, winning the Greatwood off that mark was a very good run. The Boylesports run is solid and arguably the best 2 mile run this season.

I think a mark of 167 is bit flattering for Kyber Kim. A prospective champion hurdle winner would want to be beating Harry tricker whist conceding that weight. I personally wouldnt have him rated a pound higher than the current supreme novices and champion hurdle winner. I also wouldnt have him level with a 6 time grade one winner in solwhit. Albeit Kyber kim has won a high profile handicap and a grade 2 contest over C&D, but the best he has ever managed in grade 1 company was 10th!

Personally I disagree with the handicapper and I do think he needs to improve. Thats just my opinion of course!

mdwexford

Solwhit has been beating trees in Ireland, Grade means nothing if there weak horses in them. Personally i think theres nothing in it between Go Native, Medermit and Khyber Kim with about 6 others only a few pounds behind them.

UrbanSea

It's like alaivan for the triumph,it's last grade 2 i think it was where it beat loch long looks one like one of the weakest ones of the year

cson

Alaivan's price isn't down so much to his runs as where he came from.

bit of a bogey

mdwexford wrote: »

Solwhit has been beating trees in Ireland, Grade means nothing if there weak horses in them. Personally i think theres nothing in it between Go Native, Medermit and Khyber Kim with about 6 others only a few pounds behind them.

Ah sure I know but thats a bit unfair on solwhit. He's an excellent horse that can only beat whats put in front of him. Collectively solwhit has beaten far superior horses than what Khyber Kim has.

I'm going to stop pointing out negatives about Khyber Kim cause I'll put people off backing a live contender altogether. Im just trying to make people look at the bigger picture and not get completely carried away!

Morgans

mdwexford wrote: »

Solwhit has been beating trees in Ireland, Grade means nothing if there weak horses in them. Personally i think theres nothing in it between Go Native, Medermit and Khyber Kim with about 6 others only a few pounds behind them.

Not that it really matters, but horses Solwhit has beaten this season:

the first three in last years champion punjabi, celestial halo and binocular
and all other irish challengers bar Go Native

The English form looks no better than the irish form. People are willing to forgive Celestial Halo and Punjabi several poor runs. While Solwhit might never have won the race, he deserved his position as jt fav with Go Native. He had far fewer question marks against him than plenty of other suggestions.

mdwexford

bit of a bogey wrote: »

Ah sure I know but thats a bit unfair on solwhit. He's an excellent horse that can only beat whats put in front of him. Collectively solwhit has beaten far superior horses than what Khyber Kim has.

I'm going to stop pointing out negatives about Khyber Kim cause I'll put people off backing a live contender altogether. Im just trying to make people look at the bigger picture and not get completely carried away!

I wouldnt agree with that to be honest but its all a matter of opinion.

Morgans wrote: »

Not that it really matters, but horses Solwhit has beaten this season:

the first three in last years champion punjabi, celestial halo and binocular
and all other irish challengers bar Go Native

The English form looks no better than the irish form. People are willing to forgive Celestial Halo and Punjabi several poor runs. While Solwhit might never have won the race, he deserved his position as jt fav with Go Native. He had far fewer question marks against him than plenty of other suggestions.

Yeah exactly trees

In fairness though the other Irish are awful, Binocular and Celestial Halo arent as good this year and last years top 3 will all struggle this year i reckon.

Personally i think the Khyber Kim and Medermit form is better than Solwhit's. He deserves to be short, hes gone about his business well this year, i just have my doubts about him in the Champion Hurdle.

Vanbis

After reading the Cheltenham write up in the papers over the weekend, Khyber Kim has not really got a mention for the Champion Hurdle tomorrow, not sure if thats good or bad news.

I did read Nicky Henderson is fearful of the challenge posed Khyber Kim. I