Sterling is Collapsing!

creeper1

http://www.economist.com/world/britain/displayStory.cfm?story_id=15596183&source=features_box_main

Looks like the markets don't like the Brits indecision about who they are going to elect. Judging by the way this article is written, investors have the idea that a strong Tory victory would bring cuts that they would like. Seems they have more faith in them to bring their deficit under control.

I really hope that Irish politics won't be manipulated by these unrepresentative elite investors.

Anyway that's their concern. I'm concerned with the ongoing exodus of shoppers to the North. The way that those Brits are messing up their currency is having an impact on Irish business and economy that is highly negative. :mad:

I am concerned that this continual slide in their currency is going to make them a more attractive investment area than Ireland. Although we have a more educated work force, they share with us a language that allows wealthy American multinationals to invest.

Andrew33

creeper1 wrote: »

http://www.economist.com/world/britain/displayStory.cfm?story_id=15596183&source=features_box_main

Looks like the markets don't like the Brits indecision about who they are going to elect. Judging by the way this article is written, investors have the idea that a strong Tory victory would bring cuts that they would like. Seems they have more faith in them to bring their deficit under control.

I really hope that Irish politics won't be manipulated by these unrepresentative elite investors.

Anyway that's their concern. I'm concerned with the ongoing exodus of shoppers to the North. The way that those Brits are messing up their currency is having an impact on Irish business and economy that is highly negative. :mad:

I am concerned that this continual slide in their currency is going to make them a more attractive investment area than Ireland. Although we have a more educated work force, they share with us a language that allows wealthy American multinationals to invest.

Look on the bright side, if the Euro survives the current crisis it might force the brits to go "Euro". Then we can all carry coins with the queens head on it;)

murphaph

Andrew33 wrote: »

Look on the bright side, if the Euro survives the current crisis it might force the brits to go "Euro". Then we can all carry coins with the queens head on it;)

Wonder are Euro coins withdrawn when a reigning Monarch from the issuing state dies?

ei.sdraob

Gordon Brown (1992 after the pound&#8217 wrote: »

“
a weak currency arises from a weak economy which in turn is the result of a weak Government.
”

hehehe

dermo88

Originally Posted by Andrew33 View Post
Look on the bright side, if the Euro survives the current crisis it might force the brits to go "Euro". Then we can all carry coins with the queens head on it

Wonder are Euro coins withdrawn when a reigning Monarch from the issuing state dies?

No, they remain in circulation. Spain, Belgium, The Netherlands, Luxembourg are constitutional monarchies/principalities within the Eurozone, and each carry the head of the reigning monarch. They can remain in circulation for decades. Do remember that prior to 1992, it was common to see English 5 pence, 10 pence Shillings and Florins with George VI on them from the 1940's even in Ireland.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Gordon Brown (1992 after the pound’s welcome departure from the ERM)
“
a weak currency arises from a weak economy which in turn is the result of a weak Government.
”


hehehe

Good riddance to that one eyed Scottish gimp. Mr tax and spend personified. All the credibility of a parsimonious presbyterian with a compulsive spending disorder. The problem is that it is someone elses money and savings.

I'm glad Ireland is in the Euro. It might be painful having it, but its a hell of a lot better and more transparent than the alternatives. But it will take a pounding over the next year or so, and I see the hand of Goldman Sachs involved in getting Greece involved in the Eurozone. It was their way of undermining it, and ensuring continued US Dollar hegemony.

I'm beginning to suspect that despite the pain, Ireland might get through this whole mess by 2012 in better shape than expected. '

The third waves in the chaos has yet to hit, and that is Sovereign debt defaults. Britain needs to get its deficits under control, and Sterling will not recover until there is a commitment to do that. Therefore, I see a prolonged period of Sterling weakness vis a vis the Dollar for the next 3 years, but a recovery vis a vis the Euro towards 80 pence over the next 9 months.

ardmacha

Do remember that prior to 1992, it was common to see English 5 pence, 10 pence Shillings and Florins with George VI on them from the 1940's even in Ireland.

Somewhat prior to 1992, I would imagine.

Andrew33

ardmacha wrote: »

Somewhat prior to 1992, I would imagine.

Na, I remember using florins, same as the old 10p( the big one) piece I think?

johnnyskeleton

Not again! As bad as the Irish scrum pack.

dunsandin

Having lived and worked in the uk for 12 years before i came home(not sure if that was a good move), I doubt very much if sterling will truly collapse. The UK has a depth and breadth of economy that we here in Ireland can only dream of.

dermo88

It won't completely collapse, but it will recover a bit against the Euro, and drop like a stone against the US Dollar as the US and the Americas pull out of recession. Just a personal opinion, judging from previous recessions.

dyl10

murphaph wrote: »

Wonder are Euro coins withdrawn when a reigning Monarch from the issuing state dies?

Good question!

Sleepy

I'm really hoping it doesn't drop much further against the euro... I'm being paid in sterling at the moment! :eek:

oppenheimer1

Sleepy wrote: »

I'm really hoping it doesn't drop much further against the euro... I'm being paid in sterling at the moment! :eek:

Sterling and Euro are the two big currencies the markets are most concerned with. As long as question marks hang over Greece and the hung parliament situation remains likely there probably won't be too much change in the euro-sterling rate. Thats not to say they both wont slide against the dollar and the yen.

oppenheimer1

dunsandin wrote: »

Having lived and worked in the uk for 12 years before i came home(not sure if that was a good move), I doubt very much if sterling will truly collapse. The UK has a depth and breadth of economy that we here in Ireland can only dream of.

Like Ireland, much of the UKs industrial base has been sold off or moved on. The North sea gas is running out, and the economy depends quite heavily on the financial services sector. If London was to lose its title as financial capital of the world and there was an exodous of banks, they would be in real trouble.

That said they do have much more strength and depth than ourselves at the moment.

Pete4779

oppenheimer1 wrote: »

If London was to lose its title as financial capital of the world and there was an exodous of banks, they would be in real trouble.

That said they do have much more strength and depth than ourselves at the moment.

That is quite an odd statement. That is like saying if Germany was to lose it's title as a one of the largest automobile manufacturers in the world they would be in real trouble.

If London loses it's status as the financial world capital, it's because there is no more money left to make.

oppenheimer1

Pete4779 wrote: »

That is quite an odd statement. That is like saying if Germany was to lose it's title as a one of the largest automobile manufacturers in the world they would be in real trouble.

If London loses it's status as the financial world capital, it's because there is no more money left to make.

No, its because they have all moved to Zurich... there is always money to be made in banking:pac:

ei.sdraob

Pete4779 wrote: »

If London loses it's status as the financial world capital, it's because there is no more money left to make.

or its all taxed and/or highly regulated

remember all the talk of transaction taxes etc in UK

dunsandin

dermo88 wrote: »

It won't completely collapse, but it will recover a bit against the Euro, and drop like a stone against the US Dollar as the US and the Americas pull out of recession. Just a personal opinion, judging from previous recessions.

I think that in the medium term, the US is fighting to avoid going bust, and the future currency of reference will be that of China and the emergent India. Considering the current US trade defecit and national debt, which runs to quite a big number, Sterling will need to refer well to the Yuan more so than the dorrar. And who knows if the Euro will even exist at the end of this new decade, it may well be a sadly lamented memory, certainly, its future is not guaranteed.

ei.sdraob

dunsandin wrote: »

I think that in the medium term, the US is fighting to avoid going bust, and the future currency of reference will be that of China and the emergent India. Considering the current US trade defecit and national debt, which runs to quite a big number, Sterling will need to refer well to the Yuan more so than the dorrar. And who knows if the Euro will even exist at the end of this new decade, it may well be a sadly lamented memory, certainly, its future is not guaranteed.

for all we know there could be a coordinated effort to "devalue" currencies like EUR,GBP,USD since the Chinese have artificially kept their currency "seriously undervalued" by their mercantilist policy

dunsandin

I believe that China is the US's biggest current creditor, and the value of the dorrar is only being maintained because the Chinese can't call in their loans for fear of crippling their largest customer, also sounds a bit "pyramidy" to me! The Chinese are capital rich, the US and europe are capital poor, China needs customers to buy its thrash, sorry produce, before landfilling it. This is straying a bit, so I,ll shut up now!

ei.sdraob

dunsandin wrote: »

I believe that China is the US's biggest current creditor, and the value of the dorrar is only being maintained because the Chinese can't call in their loans for fear of crippling their largest customer, also sounds a bit "pyramidy" to me! The Chinese are capital rich, the US and europe are capital poor, China needs customers to buy its thrash, sorry produce, before landfilling it. This is straying a bit, so I,ll shut up now!

actually the Chinese are trying get out of it

Japan is again the biggest holder of US junk > http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/02/16/treasuries-japan-is-once-_n_464572.html

btw i cant find the link (heres an older one) now but I believe Ireland holds a sizeable amount of the US "funny" paper

dunsandin

I'd say the chinese are trying their very best to get out! But without harming their own economy fatally in the process. They probably see the writing on the wall and dont want to lose their shirts on Johnny yank - all those hard earned dorrars down the swanney! I'd imagine our involvement in international funny money is quite widespread, given our govt's track record on good investments.