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Brussels clears Ireland's Bad Bank NAMA, now what?

Comments

  • #2
    johnfitz2010
    Closed Accounts Posts: 42 ✭johnfitz2010


    It shouldn't make any difference, as the markets already expected EU approval to be forthcoming.

    The major issue is recapitalisation of the banks and what percentage of AIB/BOI the government will end up having. As the share price moves even lower, the chance of having a successful rights issue decreases. The entire market capitalisation of BOI for example is less than 1.2 billion Euro, yet they will need to raise multiples of this. AIB is in an even worse position. Without doubt, the government will be a majority shareholder in both banks. There is no other option at the moment.

    Until we know more exact information, nobody is going to want to buy Irish banking shares. My prediction is that share prices will keep moving South over the coming weeks, at which point raising further capital will be even more difficult. If prices rise again, it won't happen until April/May at the earliest. By then, I wouldn't be surprised if they are down to 50/60c a share.


  • #3
    Comordha
    Closed Accounts Posts: 562 ✭✭✭Comordha


    Now I still wish I had of sold at €3, what was I thinking, you really can get carried away in the rally, the same way you can get overly negative when they tank like at the moment.


  • #4
    johnfitz2010
    Closed Accounts Posts: 42 ✭johnfitz2010


    That's just human nature, Comordha :) Happens to everyone. If the government ever sorts out the Irish banks, then there may be some money to be made, but not in the short-term.


  • #5
    AP_MAN
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 139 ✭✭AP_MAN


    Comordha wrote: »
    Now I still wish I had of sold at €3, what was I thinking, you really can get carried away in the rally, the same way you can get overly negative when they tank like at the moment.


    same thing with me as well, did not sell at that time and brought more and more, now fear for worst. I think it takes long time to reach that range again.


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