What if Fianna Fail had lost the 2007 general election?

rightwingdub

Okay just imagine the follwoing election scenario occured in 2007 where Fianna Fail had lost the 2007 general election.

FF 71 SEATS
FG 55 SEATS
LAB 21 SEATS
GREENS 9 SEATS
PDS 3 SEATS
SINN FEIN 4 SEATS
IND 3 SEATS

So what happens is a FG-Lab-Greens coalition with a narrow majority of 4, the reason why I'm asking this question is what would people's attitudes be towards FF now with FF in opposition and the rainbow coalition trying to take very unpopular decisions.

a few questions

1) Where would FF be in the opinion polls now, my guess would be between 40-45%.
2) Where would FG be in the opinion polls now, probably about 18%.
3) Would the rainbow coalition have collapsed because of Labour objections to cutting public sector pay, social welfare etc.
4) Would the government have introduced NAMA, somehow I doubt it?
5) Who would have been minister for Fianance Pat Rabbitee or Richard Bruton?

I'm just interested in what people have to say and what attitudes towards FF would be like now.

Sleepy

I remember saying to a friend at the time that part of me wanted FF to stay in government because I didn't want them dropping the bubble on FG.

Looking at your figures I'd imagine FF would still have been in government as they'd have taken in Sinn Fein too.

Scofflaw

Everyone would hate the Greens?

amused,
Scofflaw

rightwingdub

Sleepy wrote: »

I remember saying to a friend at the time that part of me wanted FF to stay in government because I didn't want them dropping the bubble on FG.

Looking at your figures I'd imagine FF would still have been in government as they'd have taken in Sinn Fein too.

What FF-Greens- Sinn Fein, I somewhat doubt it, the Greens would have preferred to go into government with FG than with FF. I don't think Labour would have supported public sector pay cuts and would have taxed the hell out of the wealthy, that wimp Enda Kenny would have given in to Labour demands and the budget deficit would probably be worse than it is already, knowing Labour they would have called for social welfare rates to be increased in last Decembers budget.

Laminations

rightwingdub wrote: »

what would people's attitudes be towards FF now with FF in opposition and the rainbow coalition trying to take very unpopular decisions.

Its not the unpopular, so-called hard decisions that FF are taking now that shapes my attitude of them, although i think they have dealt with many hard decisions unfairly and that has made them unpopular decisions. Its the fact that FFs mismanagement over the good years has led to the need for hard decisions that makes me hate them. Them being in opposition since 2007 doesn't change the fact that they drove this economy onto the rocks.

rightwingdub

Laminations wrote: »

Its not the unpopular, so-called hard decisions that FF are taking now that shapes my attitude of them, although i think they have dealt with many hard decisions unfairly and that has made them unpopular decisions. Its the fact that FFs mismanagement over the good years has led to the need for hard decisions that makes me hate them. Them being in opposition since 2007 doesn't change the fact that they drove this economy onto the rocks.

I agree FF mismanged the country from the period 2001 till 2008 especially, there were above inflation increases in social welfare, public spending and the OAP, I personally think it should be illegal to increase public spending above inflation as well as social welfare and the OAP, I also think the Irish government should be legally obliged to run a budget surplus irrespective of the economic circumstances. Mind you in 2007 all the parties were promising to keep the spending bonaza, I do recall the Greens promising that the state pension would be increased to €334 per week.

On the topic itself, would there now have been an oireachtas style enquiry into the banks? Also the FAS scandal and other scandals that have taken place under FF's time in government.

imme

rightwingdub wrote: »

I agree FF mismanged the country from the period 2001 till 2008 especially, there were above inflation increases in social welfare, public spending and the OAP, I personally think it should be illegal to increase public spending above inflation as well as social welfare and the OAP, I also think the Irish government should be legally obliged to run a budget surplus irrespective of the economic circumstances. Mind you in 2007 all the parties were promising to keep the spending bonaza, I do recall the Greens promising that the state pension would be increased to €334 per week.

On the topic itself, would there now have been an oireachtas style enquiry into the banks? Also the FAS scandal and other scandals that have taken place under FF's time in government.

you're memory might have gone a bit awry there RWD. I can't find a stated figure on their 2007 manifesto http://www.greenparty.ie/en/about/party_archives/election_2007/manifesto_2007 they did say that they'd work to increase the pension, no figure was given.
Make it illegal to raise certain govt spending above inflation, are you serious? Who do you see implementing this?

Lemming

First of all, I'd like to say that I'm glad that they (FF) didn't lose the election so they could foist the collapse onto somebody else and escape the blame like the filthy, corrupt gombeen muppets that they are.

But in answer to the thread title; what if? I don't think we'd be in any particularly better off shape than we are now since the damage was done years ago and the state has been living on borrowed time since. But what we would have for the better (imo) is a stark, long-overdue reminder to the body politic in Ireland that they are public servants, elected to serve the public and to whom they will answer to every few years for good or ill and be judged accordingly. Might put the frighteners and some humble manners on a lot of them

View

Lemming wrote: »

But what we would have for the better (imo) is a stark, long-overdue reminder to the body politic in Ireland that they are public servants, elected to serve the public and to whom they will answer to every few years for good or ill and be judged accordingly.

Politicans are not there to be public servants. They are there to legislate (a role largely ignored) and to choose - from amongst their ranks - politicans whom the President appoints to form the Government and who are there to govern. True, the politicans fail in one or both of these roles on occassion but that still doesn't detract from them.

nacho libre

FG would be consigned to the political wilderness for years and FF people would have broad smiles on their faces, because bar the few that follow the sequence of events, most of the electorate would believe the FF spin that it was FG's lack of experience that exacerbated the economic collapse. Meanwhile Richard Bruton is still waiting in the wings, just biding his time, to take over as FG leader- playing it perfectly by not been seen to shaft Kenny but neither giving him a resounding endorsement.

bijapos

1) Where would FF be in the opinion polls now, my guess would be between 40-45%.
Probably, 35% anyway, some of us can see through spin and bull****.

2) Where would FG be in the opinion polls now, probably about 18%.
Yup

3) Would the rainbow coalition have collapsed because of Labour objections to cutting public sector pay, social welfare etc.
The cuts would not have been as severe in public sector or social welfare. They would have cut other things that you can't obviously see such as infrastructure, and put up state services such as ESB etc.

4) Would the government have introduced NAMA, somehow I doubt it?
They would have. Or a variant of it. Essentially whatever foreign banks, who have loaned a huge amount of money to Irish banks, and the ECB advised.

5) Who would have been minister for Fianance Pat Rabbitee or Richard Bruton?
Bruton. In a 55-21-9 coalition the biggest posts would go more FG's way.

6) Parnell's statue would have been ripped down and replaced by one of Ahern instead. Either way it would be FG's fault as "we were all doing great under Bertie etc etc". And as said above the Greens would be blamed "...for not pulling the plug on this useless incompetent government who have lead us to economic ruin...and I'll never vote for them again..yadda yadda yadda..."

rightwingdub

bijapos wrote: »

1) Where would FF be in the opinion polls now, my guess would be between 40-45%.
Probably, 35% anyway, some of us can see through spin and bull****.

2) Where would FG be in the opinion polls now, probably about 18%.
Yup

3) Would the rainbow coalition have collapsed because of Labour objections to cutting public sector pay, social welfare etc.
The cuts would not have been as severe in public sector or social welfare. They would have cut other things that you can't obviously see such as infrastructure, and put up state services such as ESB etc.

4) Would the government have introduced NAMA, somehow I doubt it?
They would have. Or a variant of it. Essentially whatever foreign banks, who have loaned a huge amount of money to Irish banks, and the ECB advised.

5) Who would have been minister for Fianance Pat Rabbitee or Richard Bruton?
Bruton. In a 55-21-9 coalition the biggest posts would go more FG's way.

6) Parnell's statue would have been ripped down and replaced by one of Ahern instead. Either way it would be FG's fault as "we were all doing great under Bertie etc etc". And as said above the Greens would be blamed "...for not pulling the plug on this useless incompetent government who have lead us to economic ruin...and I'll never vote for them again..yadda yadda yadda..."

1) There are plenty of gullible people in this country so FF would be around 40-45% in the polls, they would also have come out against even the smallest public sector pay cuts.