Market Movers

Verance

OK, I've decided to start laying market movers in the belief that they become underpriced and so it will be profitable laying them.

Selections will come from the Racing Post website's market movers list (Only PP's movers cause it's easier for me ) at around 12 every day. Only horses which have been cut by 20% or more count, and only ones which are 10/1 or under so it won't be too tough on the bank. All selections will be layed to make €10 profit (assuming 5% commission) using betfair prices.

I won't be laying these just yet (BF account still suspended) but we'll see how things go after a trial run.

Verance

This is how it went on Saturday...

wrote:

Gumnd 2:20 Lingfield, Win Paddy Power 9/1 7/1 22% 8.8 2nd
Bouggler 2:30 Haydock, Win Paddy Power 6/1 4/1 33% 5 3rd
Hazzard County 3:55 Lingfield, Win Paddy Power 3/1 9/4 25% 3.4 UP
Nomadic Warrior 4:05 Uttoxeter, Win Paddy Power 14/1 7/1 50% 10 3rd
The Gloves Are Off 4:05 Uttoxeter, Win Paddy Power 6/1 4/1 33% 5.5 UP
England 4:30 Lingfield, Win Paddy Power 10/1 8/1 20% 9.4 3rd
Sprinter Sacre 4:55 Ascot, Win Paddy Power 5/4 Evs 20% 2.12 Win
Venetian Lad 4:55 Ascot, Win Paddy Power 10/1 8/1 20% 9.8 UP
Le Toreador 5:05 Lingfield, Win Paddy Power 6/4 6/5 20% 2.3 Win
Border Fusion 5:15 Haydock, Win Paddy Power 4/1 3/1 25% 4.7 PU
Day of A Lifetime 5:15 Fairyhouse, Win Paddy Power 4/6 1/2 25% 1.68 Win

+ 47.45 for the day.

Verance

Batchworth Blaise 2:55 Lingfield 12/1 - 7/1 = 42% 10
Blues Forever 3:45 Wolverhampton 12/1 - 7/1 = 42% 10
Heading To First 3:45 Wolverhampton 3/1 - 7/4 = 42% 2.88
Matjar 4:20 Wolverhampton 5/1 - 4/1 = 20% 5.9
New Beginning 4:55 Wolverhampton 10/1 - 13/2 = 35% 9.6
Bariolo 5:10 Lingfield 5/1 - 4/1 = 20% 6.2
Border Owl 5:55 Wolverhampton 16/1 - 9/1 = 44% 11

Verance

Verance wrote: »

Batchworth Blaise 2:55 Lingfield 12/1 - 7/1 = 42% 10 8th
Blues Forever 3:45 Wolverhampton 12/1 - 7/1 = 42% 10 2nd
Heading To First 3:45 Wolverhampton 3/1 - 7/4 = 42% 2.88 4th
Matjar 4:20 Wolverhampton 5/1 - 4/1 = 20% 5.9 Win
New Beginning 4:55 Wolverhampton 10/1 - 13/2 = 35% 9.6 8th
Bariolo 5:10 Lingfield 5/1 - 4/1 = 20% 6.2 Win
Border Owl 5:55 Wolverhampton 16/1 - 9/1 = 44% 11 7th

-56.05 today

steerforth80

interesting... keep it up..

Verance

Prince Pippin 2:10 Lingfield 4/1 - 3/1 = 25% 4.3 UP
Admiral Barry 2:15 Fairyhouse 7/4 - 11/8 = 21% 2.62 3rd
Posh Emily 2:20 Taunton 5/1 - 4/1 = 20% 5.9 2nd
Kinkeel 2:30 Southwell 5/1 - 4/1 = 20% 6.6
Pentominium 3.10 Lingfield 4/5 - 4/11 = 55% 1.4
Call At Midnight 3:30 Southwell 11/4 - 2/1 = 27% 3
Alfresco 3:40 Lingfield 9/1 - 5/1 = 44% 7.2
Aboukir Bay 3:50 Taunton 7/1 - 5/1 = 29% 7.2
King Raven 3:50 Taunton 10/1 - 15/2 = 25% 10
Sir Tantallus Hawk 4:00 Southwell 11/2 - 4/1 = 27% 5
Lady Kent 4.10 lingfield 9/2 - 15/8 = 55% 3
Glenlo Abbey 4:15 Fairyhouse 6/4 - 11/10 = 27% 2.18
The Book Thief 4:15 Fairyhouse 5/1 - 4/1 = 20% 5.5
Highest Start 4:20 Taunton 5/1 - 4/1 = 20% 6.6
Muktasb 4:40 Lingfield 3/1 - 9/4 = 25% 3.65
Tamino 4:40 Lingfield 7/2 - 11/4 = 21% 4
Skipper Robin 5:00 Southwell 5/1 - 4/1 = 20% 6.2
Gunship 5:20 Taunton 10/1 - 13/2 = 35% 8.6

The 3 in red are being left out as their current lay price on BF is higher than their original price.

POINTBREAK

Its an interesting theory. I can't see it working though for the following reasons.

1) There is usually a good reason why a horse is supported. Maybe the stable fancy it or the owners fancy it. Basically somebody is putting a lot of cash on it.
2) If it goes wrong and you lay a 8/1 winner you need to get 8 more beat just to get your money back.

I was actually going to start a thread backing the market movers because I noticed a lot of late market movers are winning. There was one today at Fairyhouse backed from 25/1 into 7/1 that won and also Alfresco backed into 7/1 won today. If you were following them it takes 15 losers to put you in a lose making situation. Its also a lot smaller bank required.

Verance

POINTBREAK wrote: »

Its an interesting theory. I can't see it working though for the following reasons.

1) There is usually a good reason why a horse is supported. Maybe the stable fancy it or the owners fancy it. Basically somebody is putting a lot of cash on it.
2) If it goes wrong and you lay a 8/1 winner you need to get 8 more beat just to get your money back.

I was actually going to start a thread backing the market movers because I noticed a lot of late market movers are winning. There was one today at Fairyhouse backed from 25/1 into 7/1 that won and also Alfresco backed into 7/1 won today. If you were following them it takes 15 losers to put you in a lose making situation. Its also a lot smaller bank required.

Yeah, I see you're point. I guess we can see which way it goes - if i make a loss, you're thread would probably be in profit (BF prices would just be a point smaller.)

Where I'm coming from is I've been watching markets for some time now and I've noticed that some of the movers are value at their morning prices but then are over backed so become under priced. I've been laying Hugh Taylor's selections at Betfair SP and it's going well so far.

Will keep it up for 2 or 3 weeks anyway and see how we go.

Verance

Verance wrote: »

Prince Pippin 2:10 Lingfield 4/1 - 3/1 = 25% 4.3 UP
Admiral Barry 2:15 Fairyhouse 7/4 - 11/8 = 21% 2.62 3rd
Posh Emily 2:20 Taunton 5/1 - 4/1 = 20% 5.9 2nd
Kinkeel 2:30 Southwell 5/1 - 4/1 = 20% 6.6
Pentominium 3.10 Lingfield 4/5 - 4/11 = 55% 1.4 Win
Call At Midnight 3:30 Southwell 11/4 - 2/1 = 27% 3 3rd
Alfresco 3:40 Lingfield 9/1 - 5/1 = 44% 7.2 Win
Aboukir Bay 3:50 Taunton 7/1 - 5/1 = 29% 7.2 3rd
King Raven 3:50 Taunton 10/1 - 15/2 = 25% 10 PU
Sir Tantallus Hawk 4:00 Southwell 11/2 - 4/1 = 27% 5 UP
Lady Kent 4.10 lingfield 9/2 - 15/8 = 55% 3 Win
Glenlo Abbey 4:15 Fairyhouse 6/4 - 11/10 = 27% 2.18 3rd
The Book Thief 4:15 Fairyhouse 5/1 - 4/1 = 20% 5.5 Win
Highest Start 4:20 Taunton 5/1 - 4/1 = 20% 6.6
Muktasb 4:40 Lingfield 3/1 - 9/4 = 25% 3.65 UP
Tamino 4:40 Lingfield 7/2 - 11/4 = 21% 4 2nd
Skipper Robin 5:00 Southwell 5/1 - 4/1 = 20% 6.2
Gunship 5:20 Taunton 10/1 - 13/2 = 35% 8.6 PU

The 3 in red are being left out as their current lay price on BF is higher than their original price.

- 37.55 today

POINTBREAK

Verance wrote: »

Yeah, I see you're point. I guess we can see which way it goes - if i make a loss, you're thread would probably be in profit (BF prices would just be a point smaller.)

Where I'm coming from is I've been watching markets for some time now and I've noticed that some of the movers are value at their morning prices but then are over backed so become under priced. I've been laying Hugh Taylor's selections at Betfair SP and it's going well so far.

Will keep it up for 2 or 3 weeks anyway and see how we go.

I understand the logic OK, but maybe the ones to lay are just the really short prices? I went through Hugh Taylors record last year and he was giving 15 to 25 consecutive losers, he even had 30 one time, and was claiming a profit. But he was definitely making a loss at SP, so obviously if you lay all his at the bottom price you make a profit. Its a big outlay though for a small profit.
I am tracking Pricewise Extra at the minute and noticed about 4 months ago that if a horse was tipped by Pricewise and it drifted, it always lost.
6 out of their 11 losers in the last 2 weeks have started the race at a bigger price on Betfair than the actual advised price of the tip.
I went through the records back to last July and there was only 2 winners where the SP was bigger than the advised price. One was advised at 7/2 and won at 4/1 and the other was advised at 5/2 and won at 3/1.
Where you you take your Market Movers from?

Verance

The selections come from the Racing Post’s market movers list on their website.
Here are today's:


Four Strong Winds 1:30 Doncaster, 13/8 - 5/4 = 23% 2.42
Quiet Word 2:00 Fairyhouse 6/1 - 7/2 = 42% 5
Teen Ager 2:10 Lingfield 7/1 - 4/1 = 43% 5.7
Falcon Island 2:30 Fairyhouse 9/2 - 3/1 = 33% 4.4
Hold The Bucks 2:45 Lingfield 10/1 - 8/1 = 20% 11
Istron Bay 2:55 Ludlow 6/1 - 9/2 = 25% 6.2
Askmeroe 3:05 Fairyhouse 6/1 - 10/3 = 44% 6
Pretty Star 3:40 Doncaster, 10/1 - 8/1 = 20% 10
Tamarinbleu 3:40 Doncaster 15/2 - 9/2 = 40% 6.4
Trabolgan 3:40 Doncaster 5/2 - 7/4 = 30% 3.1
Barneys Honour 4:10 Fairyhouse 5/2 - 2/1 = 20% 3
Hi Dancer 4:15 Doncaster 10/1 - 7/1 = 30% 9.4
Lord Cebellino 4:40 Fairyhouse 4/1 - 3/1 = 25% 4.8

Verance

Okay, I'm gonna start adding in the drifters aswell. €10 stake at Betfair prices. This should be interesting as drifters show up more on BF, as you can see below you can get 20/1 on a horse that was 6/1 in the morning. And we'll only need a very low strike rate.
Here are today's:

Azulada Bay 1:30 Doncaster 8/1 - 10/1 = 25% 16
Boycie 2:00 Fairyhouse 6/1 - 8/1 = 33% 21
Playboy Luke 2:00 Fairyhouse 10/3 - 4/1 = 20% 6.2
Romantic Queen 2:10 Lingfield 7/1 - 9/1 = 29% 12
Special Envoy 2:35 Doncaster 11/4 - 7/2 = 27% 5.6
Jordan’s Light 2:55 Ludlow 5/1 - 6/1 = 20% 8.6
Kimberlite King 3:05 Fairyhouse 4/6 - 4/5 = 20% 1.96
Know The Law 3:30 Ludlow 2/1 - 10/3 = 67% 4.3
Novikov 3:30 Ludlow 9/2 - 10/1 = 100% 15
Mister Farmer 4:10 Fairyhouse 15/2 - 9/1 = 20% 15
Candyfloss Girl 4:55 Lingfield 10/3 - 4/1 = 20% 5.2

POINTBREAK

I remember reading something from Betfair 5 or 6 years ago that said backing drifters was showing a profit. Can remember the exact details. I will have a look for it if I get a chance.

markhiggins

POINTBREAK wrote: »

I remember reading something from Betfair 5 or 6 years ago that said backing drifters was showing a profit. Can remember the exact details. I will have a look for it if I get a chance.

ye ive seen that before, i think its important to discern between serious gambles with horses being backed down to near favs from massive prices and small market movers. if you are using betfair, one medium sized bet could set others betting on a horse for no reason other than seeing the price change, the person who put on the first bet will just lay it off then. so they cant always be trusted. and then a short priced fav might drift half a point and win and be added to the winning drifters list so be careful!! i must say i am partial to a good gambled on horse! the aw meeting are great for it, lady kent yesterday backed from 5/2 to 11/8 wins(marginally!)

Verance

Verance wrote: »

Four Strong Winds 1:30 Doncaster, 13/8 - 5/4 = 23% 2.42 UP
Quiet Word 2:00 Fairyhouse 6/1 - 7/2 = 42% 5 UP
Teen Ager 2:10 Lingfield 7/1 - 4/1 = 43% 5.7 UP
Falcon Island 2:30 Fairyhouse 9/2 - 3/1 = 33% 4.4 3rd
Hold The Bucks 2:45 Lingfield 10/1 - 8/1 = 20% 11 Win
Istron Bay 2:55 Ludlow 6/1 - 9/2 = 25% 6.2 UP
Askmeroe 3:05 Fairyhouse 6/1 - 10/3 = 44% 6 3rd
Pretty Star 3:40 Doncaster, 10/1 - 8/1 = 20% 10 UP
Tamarinbleu 3:40 Doncaster 15/2 - 9/2 = 40% 6.4 2nd
Trabolgan 3:40 Doncaster 5/2 - 7/4 = 30% 3.1 UP
Barneys Honour 4:10 Fairyhouse 5/2 - 2/1 = 20% 3 Win
Hi Dancer 4:15 Doncaster 10/1 - 7/1 = 30% 9.4 UP
Lord Cebellino 4:40 Fairyhouse 4/1 - 3/1 = 25% 4.8 UP

-16 today

Verance wrote: »

Azulada Bay 1:30 Doncaster 8/1 - 10/1 = 25% 16 UP
Boycie 2:00 Fairyhouse 6/1 - 8/1 = 33% 21 UP
Playboy Luke 2:00 Fairyhouse 10/3 - 4/1 = 20% 6.2 2nd
Romantic Queen 2:10 Lingfield 7/1 - 9/1 = 29% 12 2nd
Special Envoy 2:35 Doncaster 11/4 - 7/2 = 27% 5.6 2nd
Jordan’s Light 2:55 Ludlow 5/1 - 6/1 = 20% 8.6 3rd
Kimberlite King 3:05 Fairyhouse 4/6 - 4/5 = 20% 1.96 Win
Know The Law 3:30 Ludlow 2/1 - 10/3 = 67% 4.3 UP
Novikov 3:30 Ludlow 9/2 - 10/1 = 100% 15 UP
Mister Farmer 4:10 Fairyhouse 15/2 - 9/1 = 20% 15 UP
Candyfloss Girl 4:55 Lingfield 10/3 - 4/1 = 20% 5.2 Win

-40.98 for the drifters (three 2nds!)

POINTBREAK

There might be a problem with those drifters if they are only the biggest drifters, if you know what I mean. I am pretty sure the betfair study took all drifters into account as Mark was saying, so I don't know if it will show a profit just taking those ones?
Its interesting though, so keep at it.

POINTBREAK

I was checking the results today on Oddschecker
36 Races
22 Winners were supported in the market.
8 Winners were drifters.
5 No real movement.
1 to come.......edit in the last the winner was backed from 12/1 to 8/1

Bear in mind that several horses can be supported in the same race and several can drift. But taking all backed horses v all drifters , I think today the backed horses won easily.

Verance

Lisdonagh House 2:30 Huntingdon 20/1 - 8/1 = 60% 11
Dan Buoy 3:15 Southwell 11/2 - 4/1 = 27% 5.5
Victory Quest 3:15 Southwell 15/8 - 5/4 = 33% 2.44
Rhinestorius 3:30 Thurles 10/1 - 15/2 = 25% 9.8
Sarando 3:35 Huntingdon 12/1 - 9/1 = 25% 11
Young Patriarch 4:00 Thurles 10/1 - 5/1 = 50% 6
Costa Courta 4:10 Huntingdon 13/2 - 5/1 = 23% 7
Punching 4:20 Southwell 7/1 - 11/2 = 21% 8
Raihana 4:25 Meydan 9/2 - 10/3 = 26% 5
Under The Arch 4:35 Thurles 10/1 - 15/2 = 25% 10.5
Old Brigade 4:40 Huntingdon 4/1 - 11/4 = 31% 3.95
Sophisticated Lady 4:40 Huntingdon 10/1 - 15/2 = 25% 9.8
Kladester 4:50 Southwell 8/1 - 5/1 = 38% 6.4
Resplendent Nova 4:50 Southwell 13/2 - 5/1 = 23% 6.4
Midshipman 5:00 Meydan 6/5 - 10/11 = 24% 2.1
Octavin 5:05 Thurles Evs - 4/5 = 20% 2
Gentle George 5:10 Huntingdon 4/1 - 3/1 = 25% 5

ON THE DRIFT
Rain On The Wind 2:10 Southwell 5/2 - 3/1 = 20% 5.9
Sarando 3:35 Huntingdon 15/2 - 9/1 = 20% 11
The Minack 3:35 Huntingdon 7/4 - 5/2 = 43% 3.85

Siyaadah 4:25 Meydan 6/5 - 6/4 = 25% 2.52

POINTBREAK

Verance wrote: »

Lisdonagh House 2:30 Huntingdon 20/1 - 8/1 = 60% 11
Dan Buoy 3:15 Southwell 11/2 - 4/1 = 27% 5.5

Rhinestorius 3:30 Thurles 10/1 - 15/2 = 25% 9.8
Sarando 3:35 Huntingdon 12/1 - 9/1 = 25% 11
Young Patriarch 4:00 Thurles 10/1 - 5/1 = 50% 6
Costa Courta 4:10 Huntingdon 13/2 - 5/1 = 23% 7
Punching 4:20 Southwell 7/1 - 11/2 = 21% 8

Under The Arch 4:35 Thurles 10/1 - 15/2 = 25% 10.5

Sophisticated Lady 4:40 Huntingdon 10/1 - 15/2 = 25% 9.8

I am backing these ones........NINE LOSERS Maybe you should just lay mine...... lol

Verance

Verance wrote: »

Lisdonagh House 2:30 Huntingdon 20/1 - 8/1 = 60% 11 up
Dan Buoy 3:15 Southwell 11/2 - 4/1 = 27% 5.5 UP
Victory Quest 3:15 Southwell 15/8 - 5/4 = 33% 2.44 Win
Rhinestorius 3:30 Thurles 10/1 - 15/2 = 25% 9.8 2nd
Sarando 3:35 Huntingdon 12/1 - 9/1 = 25% 11 2nd
Young Patriarch 4:00 Thurles 10/1 - 5/1 = 50% 6 UP
Costa Courta 4:10 Huntingdon 13/2 - 5/1 = 23% 7 UP
Punching 4:20 Southwell 7/1 - 11/2 = 21% 8 UP
Raihana 4:25 Meydan 9/2 - 10/3 = 26% 5 Win
Under The Arch 4:35 Thurles 10/1 - 15/2 = 25% 10.5 2nd
Old Brigade 4:40 Huntingdon 4/1 - 11/4 = 31% 3.95 UP
Sophisticated Lady 4:40 Huntingdon 10/1 - 15/2 = 25% 9.8 UP
Kladester 4:50 Southwell 8/1 - 5/1 = 38% 6.4 UP
Resplendent Nova 4:50 Southwell 13/2 - 5/1 = 23% 6.4 Win
Midshipman 5:00 Meydan 6/5 - 10/11 = 24% 2.1 Win
Octavin 5:05 Thurles Evs - 4/5 = 20% 2 2nd
Gentle George 5:10 Huntingdon 4/1 - 3/1 = 25% 5 Win

-47.37

ON THE DRIFT

Rain On The Wind 2:10 Southwell 5/2 - 3/1 = 20% 5.9 UP
Sarando 3:35 Huntingdon 15/2 - 9/1 = 20% 11 2nd
The Minack 3:35 Huntingdon 7/4 - 5/2 = 43% 3.85 Win

Siyaadah 4:25 Meydan 6/5 - 6/4 = 25% 2.52 3rd

-2.92

Verance

Hilbre Court 2:30 Southwell 14/1 - 8/1 = 43% 11 UP
Hypnotic Gaze 2:30 Southwell 5/1 - 7/2 = 30% 4.4 UP
Fin Vin De Leu 2:40 Warwick 10/11 - 8/11 = 20% 1.87 Win
No Sting 2:40 Warwick 6/1 - = 33% 6.6 3rd
Jagoes Mills 3:20 Thurles 15/8 - 6/4 = 20% 2.6 2nd
As Brave As You 3:40 Southwell 7/1 - 9/2 = 36% 7.6 UP
Princess Mandy 3:40 Southwell 7/2 - 15/8 = 46% 3.2 3rd
Decibel 4:15 Southwell 10/1 - 7/1 = 30% 9.6 UP
Hunters Belt 4:15 Southwell 7/1 - 9/2 = 36% 7.4 2nd
Lavenoak Lad 4:25 Warwick 7/1 - 4/1 = 43% 5.9 Win
Naunton Brook 4:25 Warwick 14/1 - 15/2 = 46% 10.5 UP
Bosamcliff 4:45 Southwell 9/4 - 7/4 3.2 Win
Tag Team 5:10 Wolverhampton 4/1 - 5/2 = 38% 4.2 3rd
Bivouac 5:15 Southwell 8/1 - 11/2 = 31% 7.6 Win
Merrion Tiger 5:15 Southwell 11/4 - 2/1 = 27% 3.15 UP
Summer Seeds 5:30 Thurles 9/1 - 6/1 = 33% 7 NR
New Leyf 5:40 Wolverhampton 4/1 - 9/4 = 44% 4.2 UP
Onceaponatime 5:40 Wolverhampton 11/1 - 13/2 = 41% 8.4 2nd
Thebes 5:40 Wolverhampton 10/1 - 7/1 = 30% 8 Win
Wreningham 6:10 Wolverhampton 9/2 - 3/1 = 33% 5.2 3rd
Oneeightofamile 6:30 Dundalk 10/1 - 8/1 = 20% 11 Win
Stand Guard 7:10 Wolverhampton 8/1 - 5/1 = 38% 6.8 Win
Truly Divine 7:40 Wolverhampton 5/1 - 4/1 = 20% 5.2 UP
Chebona Bula 8:00 Dundalk 10/1 - 15/2 = 25% 11 UP

-232.39

ON THE DRIFT
Castle Myth 2:30 Southwell 5/1 6/1 = 20% 8 2nd
Provost 2:30 Southwell 13/2 - 8/1 = 23% 15.5 UP
Ebiayn 2:40 Warwick 7/1 - 17/2 = 21% 10 UP
Magic Millie 3:40 Southwell 5/1 - 6/1 = 20% 8.2 UP
Major Pop 4:15 Southwell 6/1 - 8/1 = 33% 11 UP
Antonius Caesar 4:25 Warwick 7/2 - 5/1 = 43% 8.2 3rd
Kildonnan 4:25 Warwick 5/2 - 3/1 = 20% 5.6 UP
Notabotheronme 4:25 Warwick 11/4 - 7/2 = 27% 4.4 2nd
Compelled 5:00 Thurles 4/1 - 5/1 = 25% 6 Fell
Whats Up Gorden 5:00 Thurles 5/1 - 6/1 = 20% 12 Win
Ella Woodcock 7:10 Wolverhampton 10/3 - 4/1 = 20% 5.9 3rd
Cocktail Party 7:40 Wolverhampton 7/1 - 9/1 = 29% 14 UP

-5.5

Verance

Helpston 1:30 Kempton 8/1 - 6/1 = 25% 8.2
Stripe Me Blue 1:30 Kempton 12/1 - 9/1 = 25% 11
The Pier 1:35 Navan 5/1 - 4/1 = 20% 5.2
Grey Soldier 2:00 Kempton 4/1 - 2/1 = 50% 3.3
Even Bolder 3:15 Lingfield 9/2 - 7/2 = 22% 4.9
Peak District 3:15 Lingfield 3/1 - 9/4 = 25% 3.55
Jadanli 4:15 Navan 10/1 - 15/2 = 25% 10.5
Dalradian 5:25 Lingfield 9/4 - 13/8 = 28% 2.68

ON THE DRIFT

Vino Griego 2:00 Kempton 7/2 - 5/1 = 43% 6.6
Silver Spinner 3:30 Chepstow 11/2 - 7/1 = 27% 8.8
Awesome Freddie 4:45 Kempton 11/2 - 7/1 = 27% 16
Advanced 5:25 Lingfield 5/2 - 3/1 = 20% 5.1

Think I'm gonna start backing the movers if they do well today.

qc3

Hope you don't mind,just adding
The Hollow Bottom 4.00 Kempton 12s - 7s

Verance

Verance wrote: »

Helpston 1:30 Kempton 8/1 - 6/1 = 25% 8.2 2nd
Stripe Me Blue 1:30 Kempton 12/1 - 9/1 = 25% 11 UP
The Pier 1:35 Navan 5/1 - 4/1 = 20% 5.2 UP
Grey Soldier 2:00 Kempton 4/1 - 2/1 = 50% 3.3 PU
Even Bolder 3:15 Lingfield 9/2 - 7/2 = 22% 4.9 UP
Peak District 3:15 Lingfield 3/1 - 9/4 = 25% 3.55 2nd
Jadanli 4:15 Navan 10/1 - 15/2 = 25% 10.5 Win
Dalradian 5:25 Lingfield 9/4 - 13/8 = 28% 2.68 Win

-57.39

ON THE DRIFT:

Vino Griego 2:00 Kempton 7/2 - 5/1 = 43% 6.6 Fell
Silver Spinner 3:30 Chepstow 11/2 - 7/1 = 27% 8.8 UP
Awesome Freddie 4:45 Kempton 11/2 - 7/1 = 27% 16 UP
Advanced 5:25 Lingfield 5/2 - 3/1 = 20% 5.1 UP

-40

Another winning day for the movers.
94 horses layed so far and 39.93 euro down to a 1 euro stake.

qc3 wrote: »

Hope you don't mind,just adding
The Hollow Bottom 4.00 Kempton 12s - 7s

Nope, it was only 7s with one bookie i think? 10s and 11s with others and Bf had it bigger so doesn't qualify.

Verance

Progress 2.20 Kempton evens - 8/11 = 27% 1.86 Win
Heathcote 3:00 Fontwell 5/2 - 2/1 = 20% 3.3 UP
Or Bleu 3:00 Fontwell 12/1 - 8/1 = 33% 11 2nd
Saphir Des Bois 3:00 Fontwell 5/2 - 2/1 = 20% 3.3 Win
Treacle 3:15 Leopardstown 9/1 - 13/2 = 28% 8.2 UP
Qozak 3:35 Fontwell 7/2 - 2/1 = 43% 3.35 UP
Souffleur 3:35 Fontwell 10/1 - 4/1 = 60% 6.2 2nd
Gaspara 4:35 Fontwell 9/1 - 13/2 = 28% 6.6 NR
Island Wood 4:40 Clonmel 12/1 - 6/1 = 50% 9.8 UP
Caught By Witness 5:05 Fontwell 5/2 - 2/1 = 20% 3.3 Win

+2.67

ON THE DRIFT
Kingsmoss 1:10 Leopardstown 5/2 - 3/1 = 20% 3.8 UP
Herecomesthetruth 3:00 Fontwell 5/2 - 4/1 = 60% 5.7 3rd
Lough Derg 3:35 Fontwell 7/2 - 11/2 = 57% 7 UP
Snowy Morning 4:20 Leopardstown 5/1 - 6/1 = 20% 9 3rd

-40

Verance

http://promo.betfair.com/tactemails/camb1a.htm#How

Interesting!

Apparently they took the selections from 2 hours before the race up until the off.

Verance

Finmere 2:30 Hereford 12/1 - 7/1 = 42% 9.8

Fighter Boy 2:40 Wolverhampton 10/1 - 15/2 = 25% 10.5
Rouge Et Blanc 2:50 Plumpton 5/1 - 7/2 = 30% 5
Satwa Moon 3:10 Wolverhampton 7/1 - 9/2 = 36% 5.8
Kielty'S Folly 3:40 Wolverhampton 8/1 6/1 25% 8.6
Mister Pous 4:00 Hereford 5/1 - 7/2 = 30% 4.6
Power Series 4:10 Wolverhampton 3/1 - 2/1 = 33% 3.2
Fishoutofwater 5:00 Hereford 9/2 - 7/2 = 22% 3.5

ON THE DRIFT

Meneur 2:50 Plumpton 7/1 - 9/1 = 29% 17

Recif De Thaix 3:30 Hereford 5/2 - 3/1 = 20% 4.8
Gizmondo 3:50 Plumpton 6/1 - 15/2 = 25% 18
Juicy Pear 4:10 Wolverhampton 5/6 - Evs = 20% 2.2
Manxman 4:10 Wolverhampton 7/1 - 9/1 = 29% 16
King'S Icon 5:40 Wolverhampton 7/2 - 9/2 = 29% 6.8

Verance

Mt Desert 2:00 Catterick 9/1 - 6/1 = 33% 8.8 3rd
Esme Rides A Gaine 2:30 Catterick 9/1 - 7/1 = 22% 9.6 UP
Srda 2:40 Lingfield 7/2 - 5/2 = 29% 3.7 Win
Captain Cool 4:10 Lingfield 13/2 - 4/1 = 38% 6.4 2nd
The Mouse Carroll 4:40 Lingfield 7/1 - 11/2 = 21% 7 UP
Top Flight Splash 4:40 Lingfield 5/1 – 7/2 = 30% 4.8 2nd

+21.65

ON THE DRIFT
Our Day Will Come 4:40 Lingfield 8/1 - 10/1 = 25% 15.5 UP

-10

Verance

Lord Multifix 3:15 Downpatrick 8/1 – 4/1 = 50% 7.2 3rd
Braveheart Move 3:20 Bangor-On-Dee 4/1 - 3/1 = 25% 4.9 PU
Blues Forever 3:30 Wolverhampton 4/1 - 3/1 = 25% 4.1 UP
Aconitum 3:40 Folkestone 10/1 - 6/1 = 40% 7.8 3rd
Panama At Once 3:50 Bangor-On-Dee 16/1 - 7/1 = 56% 10 UP
Floridita 4:00 Wolverhampton 11/10 - 4/5 = 27% 1.83 UP
Shaka'S Pearl 4:10 Folkestone 15/2 - 6/1 = 20% 8 UP
Smarties Party 4:30 Wolverhampton 12/1 - 7/1 = 42% 9.6 2nd
Mr Jay Dee 5:20 Bangor-On-Dee 9/2 - 7/2 = 22% 4.9 2nd

+90

ON THE DRIFT
Canni Thinkaar 3:40 Folkestone 10/3 - 4/1 = 20% 9 Win
The Gangerman 4:10 Folkestone 8/1 - 10/1 = 25% 16 3rd
Pagan Starprincess 4:20 Bangor-On-Dee 4/1 - 5/1 = 25% 8.2 3rd

+56

Verance

Verance wrote: »

Finmere 2:30 Hereford 12/1 - 7/1 = 42% 9.8 PU

Fighter Boy 2:40 Wolverhampton 10/1 - 15/2 = 25% 10.5 3rd
Rouge Et Blanc 2:50 Plumpton 5/1 - 7/2 = 30% 5 PU
Satwa Moon 3:10 Wolverhampton 7/1 - 9/2 = 36% 5.8 Win
Kielty'S Folly 3:40 Wolverhampton 8/1 6/1 25% 8.6 UP
Mister Pous 4:00 Hereford 5/1 - 7/2 = 30% 4.6 2nd
Power Series 4:10 Wolverhampton 3/1 - 2/1 = 33% 3.2 Win
Fishoutofwater 5:00 Hereford 9/2 - 7/2 = 22% 3.5 Win

-49.75

ON THE DRIFT

Meneur 2:50 Plumpton 7/1 - 9/1 = 29% 17 NR

Recif De Thaix 3:30 Hereford 5/2 - 3/1 = 20% 4.8 3rd
Gizmondo 3:50 Plumpton 6/1 - 15/2 = 25% 18 UP
Juicy Pear 4:10 Wolverhampton 5/6 - Evs = 20% 2.2 UP
Manxman 4:10 Wolverhampton 7/1 - 9/1 = 29% 16 UP
King'S Icon 5:40 Wolverhampton 7/2 - 9/2 = 29% 6.8 2nd

-50

Verance

Captain Bluebird 2:40 Southwell 11/1 - 13/2 = 41% 9.6 UP
Voramar Two 2:50 Taunton 2/9 - 1/6 = 25% 1.18 Win
Pickamus 3:00 Ludlow 5/1 - 4/1 = 20% 5.3 Win
Polyfast 3:00 Ludlow 3/1 - 9/4 = 25% 3.65 UP
Lucky Mellor 3:10 Southwell 3/1 - 2/1 = 33% 3.5 UP
Carrickmines 4:00 Ludlow 5/1 - 4/1 = 20% 5.3 Win
Heathcliff 4:00 Ludlow 7/1 - 11/2 = 21% 7.6 UP
Kilcrea Asla 4:00 Ludlow 7/1 - 5/1 = 29% 6.4 UP
Aim For The Stars 4:30 Ludlow 9/1 - 4/1 = 56% 6 UP
Miss Christophene 4:40 Southwell 9/4 - 7/4 = 22% 2.84 2nd
Sir Kezbaah 4:50 Taunton 7/2 - 11/4 = 21% 4.1 Win
Perpetually 6:20 Wolverhampton 9/4 - 7/4 = 22% 2.92 3rd
Miami Gator 7:20 Wolverhampton 8/1 - 11/2 = 31% 7.4 UP
Almatlaie 8:20 Wolverhampton 12/1 - 8/1 = 33% 9 UP
Sworn Tigress 8:50 Wolverhampton 3/1 - 11/8 = 54% 2.64 Win

-41.96

ON THE DRIFT
Set Back 2:40 Southwell 9/4 - 11/4 = 22% 4.1 Win
Boogie Waltzer 3:10 Southwell 7/1 - 9/1 = 29% 18 2nd
Glebehall Bay 4:30 Ludlow 3/1 - 4/1 = 33% 6 UP
Cookie Galore 5:20 Wolverhampton 9/2 - 11/2 = 22% 7.6 Win
Sweet Avon 5:20 Wolverhampton 13/8 - 2/1 = 23% 3.4 UP
Kinky Afro 7:20 Wolverhampton 4/1 - 5/1 = 25% 7 Win
Russian Angel 8:20 Wolverhampton 13/2 - 8/1 = 23% 11.5 UP
Barodine 8:50 Wolverhampton 11/4 - 7/2 = 27% 5 3rd

+107

Verance

Vulcanite 1:50 Lingfield 9/4 - 6/4 = 33% 2.7 Win
Conquisto 2:00 Doncaster 10/1 - 11/2 = 45% 9.4 2nd
Novikov 2:35 Doncaster 5/4 – Evs = 20% 2.06 UP
Sound Stage 3:55 Newbury 7/2 - 7/4 = 50% 2.84 Win
Je Ne Sais Plus 4:20 Doncaster 7/1 - 4/1 = 43% 5.8 UP
La Sarrazine 4:20 Doncaster 6/4 - Evs = 33% 2.26 Win
Sovereign King 4:55 Doncaster 8/1 - 6/1 = 25% 7.6 UP
Oasis Star 6:10 Meydan 9/2 - 7/2 = 22% 4.6 UP
Hammer 7:05 Wolverhampton 10/1 - 7/1 = 30% 9.2 UP
Crazy Bold 8:35 Wolverhampton 9/1 - 7/1 = 22% 8.6 UP

+19.60

ON THE DRIFT
Parhelion 1:50 Lingfield 4/1 - 11/2 = 38% 8.4 UP
Flemmingsbond 2:00 Doncaster 9/4 - 11/4 = 22% 4.4 Fell
Kew Jumper 3:20 Newbury 5/1 - 6/1 = 20% 8.2 3rd
Mister Quasimodo 3:20 Newbury 7/4 - 9/4 = 29% 3.55 UP
Lupanar 3:55 Newbur 11/4 - 11/2 = 100% 9.4 UP
Bosamcliff 4:20 Doncaster 4/1 - 15/2 = 88% 13.5 3rd
Evening Sunset 4:20 Doncaster 6/1 - 9/1 = 50% 13 UP
Drunken Sailor 4:50 Meydan 5/1 - 6/1 = 20% 7.2 UP
Le Roi Rouge 4:55 Doncaster 7/1 - 9/1 = 29% 14 UP
Salut Flo 4:55 Doncaster 5/2 - 7/2 = 40% 5.5 Win

-47.25

Verance

Briery Fox 2:35 Newbury 7/1 - 11/2 = 21% 7.2 UP
Concrete And Clay 2:40 Gowran Park 8/1 - 9/2 = 44% 6.2 UP
Master Cobbler 2:50 Kempton 10/1 - 13/2 = 35% 9.6 UP
Dooneys Gate 3:15 Gowran Park 5/2 - 2/1 = 20% 3.4 2nd
Tarateeno 3:20 Kempton 11/1 - 15/2 = 32% 10.5 2nd
Iris De Balme 3:25 Doncaster 10/1 - 7/1 = 30% 10 UP
Arctic Wings 3:45 Newbury 8/1 - 5/1 = 38% 7 Win
Cucumber Run 4:00 Doncaster 13/8 - 6/5 = 26% 2.18 2nd
Whyso Mayo 4:25 Gowran Park 5/1 - 4/1 = 20% 5.3 UP
Wheels Up 4:55 Newbury 3/1 - 13/8 = 46% 2.84 Win
Robin De Creuse 5:05 Kempton 9/2 - 9/4 = 50% 3.45 UP
De Boitron 5:10 Doncaster 6/1 - 4/1 = 33% 6.4 Win

-49.02

ON THE DRIFT
Eric'S Charm 2:35 Newbury 5/1 - 7/1 = 40% 9.8 Win
Mon Champion 2:40 Gowran Park 7/2 - 9/2 = 29% 6.4 PU
Noble Future 2:50 Kempton 5/1 - 6/1 = 20% 8.6 3rd
Silk Drum 3:00 Kelso 2/1 - 5/2 = 25% 3.9 2nd
Marc Aurele 3:45 Newbury 11/4 - 4/1 = 45% 5.7 UP
Washington Irving 4:10 Kelso 2/1 - 5/2 = 25% 3.7 UP
Bormo 4:55 Newbury 5/2 - 7/2 = 40% 5.4 2nd
Lordsbridge 4:55 Newbury 11/2 - 15/2 = 36% 9.4 UR
Doctor David 5:10 Doncaster 2/1 - 5/2 = 25% 3.6 2nd
Pret A Thou 5:10 Doncaster 5/1 - 13/2 = 30% 8.6 3rd

-6.4

Verance

Hans Crescent 2:30 Naas 10/1 - 8/1 = 20% 9 UP
Whodoyouthink 2:30 Naas 9/4 - 13/8 = 28% 2.86 Win
Fistoulig 3:30 Naas 8/1 - 9/2 = 44% 6.6 [/B]UP[/B]
Kings Advocate 4:00 Naas 11/2 - 7/2 = 36% 4.8 UP
Rusty Red 4:50 Sedgefield 10/1 - 15/2 = 25% 10 3rd
Seafield 5:30 Naas 4/1 - 11/4 = 31% 4.5 2nd

+30.47

ON THE DRIFT
Cosmetic 4:20 Sedgefield 6/1 - 15/2 = 25% 15.5 UP
Pistol Basc 4:50 Sedgefield 7/4 - 9/4 = 29% 3.7 UP
A Fine Young Man 5:30 Naas 3/1 - 4/1 = 33% 5.8 Win

+25.60

POINTBREAK

There was a huge late gamble today on Baron Watlass in the 4-20. 16/1 to 7/1 winner. All the money for that one was late. There seems to be a difference between late plunges and early market movers. (I missed it)

Verance

POINTBREAK wrote: »

All the money for that one was late. There seems to be a difference between late plunges and early market movers. (I missed it)

Yeah, it's interesting, the difference seems to be that early movers tend to be more profitable than the late gambles.

POINTBREAK

Verance wrote: »

Yeah, it's interesting, the difference seems to be that early movers tend to be more profitable than the late gambles.

Its difficult to keep track of them. I usually have a look through oddschecker, but in most races 3 or 4 horses are backed and while you could go through the times its an awful lot of trouble to go to after the event.
Is there a site that shows all the stages if a horse is backed down from 16's or 20's? I could really use something like that.

Verance

Daraz Rose 3:05 Stratford 11/2 - 4/1 = 27% 5.6
Raincoat 3:40 Stratford 10/1 - 13/2 = 35% 8.2
She Is A Cracker 4:15 Stratford 10/1 - 11/2 = 45% 7.8
Flexi Time 4:35 Ffos Las 8/1 - 6/1 = 25% 8.2
Oursininlaw 5:40 Ffos Las 6/1 - 9/2 = 25% 6.2
Rudanphast 5:40 Ffos Las 9/1 - 7/1 = 22% 8.8

ON THE DRIFT
Romping Home 3:05 Stratford 10/3 - 4/1 = 20% 5.5
Hurakan 3:15 Lingfield 5/2 - 3/1 = 20% 4.9
Little Firecracker 4:15 Stratford 7/1 - 9/1 = 29% 14
Tous Les Deux 4:25 Lingfield 3/1 - 4/1 = 33% 6.8
Be My Light 5:20 Stratford 5/2 - 3/1 = 20% 4.2

Verance

Forestside 2:15 Naas 4/1 - 3/1 = 25% 4.5
The Burrow Vic 4:15 Naas 9/1 - 7/1 = 22% 8.8
Fort Defiance 5:15 Naas 5/4 – Evs = 20% 2.02
Cheviot 6:30 Wolverhampton 7/4 - 4/5 = 54% 1.84
Rulesn'Regulations 6:30 Wolverhampton 10/1 - 8/1 = 20% 9.4

ON THE DRIFT
Exceddthewildman2:00 Lingfield 3/1 - 9/2 = 50% 6.8
King Canute 4:30 Lingfield 9/4 - 11/4 = 22% 3.95
Herald Angel 4:40 Fontwell 7/2 - 5/1 = 43% 7.4
Mystic Smile 5:15 Naas 6/1 - 8/1 = 33% 24
Classical Mist 5:20 Catterick 15/8 - 9/4 = 20% 3.6
Dubai Dynamo 6:30 Wolverhampton 3/1 - 5/1 = 67% 8
Ishiadancer 6:30 Wolverhampton 9/2 - 13/2 = 44% 9.2
Rulesn'Regulations 6:30 Wolverhampton 13/2 - 8/1 = 23% 9.4

Verance

Douryna 2:30 Wincanton 8/11 - 1/2 = 31% 9.6
Rudinero 2:30 Wincanton 10/1 - 6/1 = 40% 9
Ciceron 3:35 Wincanton 5/4 - 5/6 = 33% 1.92
Gaspara 3:35 Wincanton 12/1 - 11/2 = 54% 8
Lion Valley 4:45 Clonmel 14/1 - 13/2 = 54% 8.6
Next To Nowhere 5:20 Carlisle 9/1 - 6/1 = 33% 7.8
False Economy 5:45 Clonmel 9/1 - 7/1 = 22% 9
Orchard Supreme 6:00 Wolverhampton 7/1 - 4/1 = 43% 5.9
Stand Guard 6:00 Wolverhampton 12/1 - 7/1 = 42% 8.6
Rannoch Moor 6:30 Wolverhampton 9/1 - 11/2 = 39% 7.4
Broughtons Point 7:00 Wolverhampton 9/2 - 7/2 = 22% 5.2

ON THE DRIFT
Cat Six 2:30 Wincanton 8/11 - Evs = 38% 2.06
Ag Dul Suas 2:35 Clonmel 7/2 - 9/2 = 29% 6.2
Amazing Blue Sky 2:50 Southwell 7/1 - 9/1 = 29% 11
Mister Pous 3:35 Wincanton 4/1 - 7/1 = 75% 10.5
Ebony River 5:20 Carlisle 15/2 - 9/1 = 20% 19.5
Baylini 6:00 Wolverhampton 9/2 - 13/2 = 44% 9