The Eventual Draw

Töpher

First things first, I'm doing this just for a bit of fun, so please bare that in mind before posting calling me an idiot (I'm already aware of that, thanking you :pac:)!

I've used the ol' Martingale system on backing draws occasionally, and it can be quite profitable in comparison to the usual method of picks circa evens because the odds on the draw would generally be a nice bit above 2/1, so when you do get a winner you would typically cover your loses and make the small profit you set out looking for (as would be standard for Martingale systems), plus gain close to evens profit to the amount of your last bet (which was always extra nice, especially if you were now on bet 4 or so).

Obviously, it can be very easy to go on a long run where you don't pick any draws, and as would be typical with the Martingale system this can lead to you busting your bank very quickly.

With this in mind, and to try and counter it somewhat, I'm going to lay some simple ground rules and take a one-team approach to the method (again, purely for a bit of fun). Basically the idea is to pick one team, and back them to draw in each league match they play, doubling the stakes until they do finish a game all square. At this point, return to the rule list and select a new team, at this stage probably in a league running a slightly different calender, to follow.

Deciding on a poison:
League Rules;

The league must;

• have completed at least 5 match days
• have at least 10 match days left to complete
• not have a midseason break fast approaching (tend to see some odd results)

Team Rules;

The selected team must:

• not have drawn any of their last 5 league matches.
• by the same token, if the season is well underway, a reasonable percentage of draws must have been attained (i.e: avoid Getafe! :eek:)
• be around midtable (or be perennial midtablers, if this is a relatively fresh season)
• not be in crisis (i.e: sacked manager, administration, 12 y/o goalkeeper, etc.)
• not be on a fresh wind (i.e: new manager, influx of new players, huge investment, etc.)
• have an approaching set of games where a draw is a reasonable bet (i.e: not have a run of matches against only teams at the extreme ends of the table)

With this in mind, my first (possibly only?) pick is going to be Yeovil Town.

• League One (~66% complete, ~17 match days to go)
• 14th (of 24)
• P29 W8 D10 L11 GD-2
• WLLWLLWD (last draw was 8 games ago)
• Upcoming matches;
  (H) v 21st (today)
  (H) v 4th
  (A) v 3rd
  (A) v 10th
  (H) v 8th
  (A) v 1st
  (H) v 16th
  (A) v 9th
  (H) v 15th

Yeovil Town;
(H) v Gillingham - draw @ 3.85, 1pt

Collie D

I see your logic and your selection method looks very sound but really can't go with your staking system. Hope it works but not for me. You look like you know what you're doing selection wise though. Good luck

x PyRo

Gillingham have lost 12 of 15 away games and only drawn 3, They're brutal away from home. I think you could of picked a better one for the draw in my opinion.

heviballs

x PyRo wrote: »

Gillingham have lost 12 of 15 away games and only drawn 3, They're brutal away from home. I think you could of picked a better one for the draw in my opinion.

Dag & Red model draw(if there's such a thing)v Boringmouth today

Vurnon San Benito

Great start Topher.
Keep it up!

x PyRo

x PyRo wrote: »

Gillingham have lost 12 of 15 away games and only drawn 3, They're brutal away from home. I think you could of picked a better one for the draw in my opinion.

I got it wrong for sure.

Well done with the draw, Yeovil cost me €610 in a 5 team accumulator.

Töpher

Cheers for the input guys (and hard luck on the Yeovil result x PyRo, must have been a sickener ). I understand the staking system isn't the wisest, I suppose I'm hoping the picks will be successful before the stakes have climbed too much - I'm using a smaller bank than usual, and it's for fun more than anything.

There'll always be matches that you'll look at and think that there's no way it'll end in a draw, but what I'm hoping is to be able to pick a sequence of games that have a good chance of yielding one before the stakes spiral out of control.

Going to follow on from today with Osasuna in La Liga. Averaging exactly one goal for, and exactly one against per match, and so far have drawn an average of 23.8% of their matches in the league to date.

• La Liga (55% complete, 17 match days to go)
• 9th (of 20)
• P21 W8 D5 L8 GD+0
• WWWWLD (last draw was 6 games ago)
• Upcoming matches;
  (A) v 5th (tomorrow)
  (H) v 18th
  (A) v 12th
  (H) v 8th
  (A) v 13th
  (H) v 11th
  (A) v 1st

Osasuna;
(A) v Sevilla - draw @ 3.90, 1pt

If this doesn't come in, I'll be taking the draw in Osasuna v Real Valladolid, which is next Sunday. They've a run of drawable matches coming up, so fingers crossed it won't take too long!

Overall; (+2.85)
(+2.85) Yeovil Town

Töpher

1-0 Sevilla. Next bet will wait until Sunday now, at home to draw-crazy (45.5% of league games this season ending level) Real Vallodolid.

Töpher

Osasuna;
(H) v Real Valladolid - draw @ 3.70, 2pts

Töpher

Osasuna 1 - 1 Real Valladolid

Back to the drawing board now so to speak, have my eye on a few potential selections. Will post up here when I've decided on my next vice :pac:

Overall; (+7.25)
(+4.40) Osasuna (-1.00,+5.40)
(+2.85) Yeovil Town

Vurnon San Benito

Great stuff. Keep it up my man .

Töpher

I'd narrowed my picks down to Milwall in League One, or Roda in the Dutch Eredivisie. If Milwall don't get the draw quickly, I'll soon be having to take the draw in games like away to Leeds and at home to Stockport - which I don't like the look of right now. Milwall's games are more frequent, having regular midweek games to play now - which could yield positive results quicker, or bankrupt me even faster. So, I'm going to take Roda, as I believe they have a more drawable sequence of matches.

• Dutch Eredivise(~70% complete, 10 match days to go)
• 12th (of 18)
• P24 W7 D5 L12 GD-15
• WLWLLWLWD (last draw was 9 games ago)
• Upcoming matches;
  (A) v 16th (Friday)
  (H) v 4th
  (A) v 11th
  (A) v 8th
  (H) v 13th
  (H) v 18th
  (A) v 9th

Roda JC;
(A) v ADO Den Haag - 26/02/2010

Töpher

Roda JC;
(A) v ADO Den Haag - draw @ 3.50, 1pt

Töpher

Roda won 2-1, thanks to a winning goal 2 minutes from time (second week running of that happening for them!), my attention now turns to their home match against Feyenoord on Sunday March 7th.

Töpher

Just spotted this one today, and maybe I shouldn't, but I'm going to run with Panserraikos in the Greek second division for the time being, as well as Roda.

This league returns a lot of draws, with several teams drawing near 50% of their matches. Panserraikos (31.8%) have gone on a run without one for a while, and have a run coming up that could easily see several draws, never mind one (queue the win/loss streak continuing!). They are comfortably midtable, and even though the upcoming games see them taking on the team in 4th, and the team in 17th (second last), there isn't much of a points difference in either direction.

First game up is at home to PMAS Agrotikos Asteras, who have drawn 7 of their 10 away matches to date (in fact, their last few away matches read P6 W1 D5 L0, F2 A1. :eek:).

• Greek B Ethniki (~65% complete, 12 match days to go)
• 10th (of 18)
• P22 W7 D7 L8 GD-6
• WLWLWLD (last draw was 7 games ago)
• Upcoming matches;
  (H) v 8th
  (A) v 17th
  (A) v 11th
  (H) v 12th
  (A) v 4th
  

Panserraikos;
(H) v PMAS Agrotikos Asteras - draw @3.35

I expect that price to level out around 3.50 tomorrow, but won't have access to make the bet then.

Because of adding another team into the mix, I'm going to split the log to show active and completed bets, to try and give a more detailed and fairer overview, with the overall profit/loss incorporating points placed on current bets. Putting currently placed bets in orange, to distinguish these from the lost bets in red.

Overall; (+5.25)
Active; (-2.00)
(-1.00) Panserraikos (-1.00) v PMAS Agrotikos Asteras - draw @3.35; 1pt placed.
(-1.00) Roda JC (-1.00) v Feyenoord, March 7th 2010; 2pts to be placed.

Complete; (+7.25)
(+4.40) Osasuna (-1.00,+5.40)
(+2.85) Yeovil Town

Töpher

Panserraikos 1 - 0 PMAS Agrotikos Asteras

Overall; (+5.25)
Active; (-2.00)
(-1.00) Panserraikos (-1.00) v PS PAE Kalamata, March 7th 2010; 2pts to be placed.
(-1.00) Roda JC (-1.00) v Feyenoord, March 7th 2010; 2pts to be placed.

Complete; (+7.25)
(+4.40) Osasuna (-1.00,+5.40)
(+2.85) Yeovil Town[/QUOTE]

Töpher

The odds for the draw in the Panserraikos match will pick up, but won't get chance to look at this before the match tomorrow, so working off whats available at the moment.

Overall; (+1.25)
Active; (-6.00)
(-3.00) Panserraikos (-1.00,-2.00) v PS PAE Kalamata - draw @ 3.25, 2pts
(-3.00) Roda JC (-1.00,-2.00) v Feyenoord - draw @ 3.55, 2pts

Complete; (+7.25)
(+4.40) Osasuna (-1.00,+5.40)
(+2.85) Yeovil Town

Töpher

Looking to the 13th and 14th now, beginning to think that taking 2 teams could prove to be a fatal blow! :pac:

Töpher

NEC Nijmegen v Roda JC - draw @ 3.55

[edit] 4pts

Töpher

Doxa Dramas v Panserraikos - draw @ 3.00, 4pts.

Töpher

Töpher wrote: »

Doxa Dramas v Panserraikos - draw @ 3.00, 4pts.

1-1.

Töpher wrote: »

NEC Nijmegen v Roda JC - draw @ 3.55

[edit] 4pts

0-2, NEC were appalling in front of goal, while Roda got both of theirs on the break. They're currently 10th (of 18) and have 8th, 11th, 18th, and 9th as their next 4 matches - still some good chances of the ol' draw. I hope!

Overall; (+5.25)
Active; (-7.00)
(-7.00) Roda JC (-1.00,-2.00,-4.00) v Groningen, 21 March 2010, 8pts to be placed.

Complete; (+12.25)
(+5.00) Panserraikos (-1.00,-2.00,+8.00)
(+4.40) Osasuna (-1.00,+5.40)
(+2.85) Yeovil Town

Töpher

Groningen v Roda JC - draw @ 4.10, 8pts.

Bring it on! :pac:

Töpher

Roda lost 1-0. Groningen scored in the 2nd minute, and then soaked up no end of pressure from Roda, who dominated the game but couldn't get a breakthrough. Players throwing themselves on the ground at full time as if they'd lost a final, watching the final scenes here and Groningens players are celebrating like mad yokes! :pac:

Töpher

Roda v Heerenveen - draw @ 3.40

Last one for me on this sequence whether she comes in or not; it's been entertaining from my point of view with most games running it close, but Roda's last draw was 13 games ago and she's spiralling madly at this stage. I believe it's purely a case of a bad/unlucky pick from my side, any other teams I'd considered over the duration of this have all reached the draw already from what I can see, but I'm not prepared to go chasing it. Not holding out much hope for today, given Heerenveen's stats for the season, but it marks a line in the sand.

I'm just glad I used a vastly reduced bank! :pac:

Töpher

4-2, but I got distracted and never confirmed the bet (:D)! Still calling it quits with Roda though.