6 Nations 2010

Morzadec

Anyone gambling on this? I'm going to start some handicap betting and see how how I get on, as I had a very good run in the 2007 World Cup (before betting almost my entire profit on New Zealand to win the tournament at the quarter final stage!).

I've gone for a handicap double this week of:

Ireland (+5) vs France 10/11
Wales (-10) vs Scotland 10/11

The Ireland one I've gone for as I think +5 is generous when there's little to choose between the 2 teams. I dunno maybe a bit of bias, but I see it as a tough match to call either way, so the 5 point handicap should hopefeully be enough.

The Wales one I'm quietly confident on. Wales are capable of running through a good few tries on their day. The points gap in their defeat to England was artificially high in my opinion, and the bookies may well have taken the measure of their defeat to England into account when deciding the handicap. They conceded a huge amount of points at the end of the first half when one of their players stupidly got sin-binned. They should've been going into halftime well in contention but were instead left trailing by a decent margin. They were left chasing the game after this (which I thought they did well) and were eventually punished with a breakaway try. Scotland never seem to offer much in an attacking sense and I can see Wales outscoring them by about 3 tries here (4-1, or 3-0 possibly). I reckon Wales are good for a 30ish - 10/15 victory here.

In hindsight maybe I should've just lumped on Wales and ignored the Ireland game... Anyway we'll see what happens. Have a few first tryscorer bets on for a laugh as well, the odds are always long, worth a few coins.

ThomasAlan

I've gone for a handicap double myself,

Wales (-10) v Scotland
Italy (+15) v England

I think the Italy v England match will be a fairly low scoring affair. Italy were well organised defensively against Ireland. And while I expect England to win, I'm hoping they won't have the firepower to build up a big score.

Morzadec

ThomasAlan wrote: »

I've gone for a handicap double myself,

Wales (-10) v Scotland
Italy (+15) v England

I think the Italy v England match will be a fairly low scoring affair. Italy were well organised defensively against Ireland. And while I expect England to win, I'm hoping they won't have the firepower to build up a big score.

I saw that England Italy handicap set at 14 points and thought it looked nice. I'm in agreement with you, i would back Italy to beat the handicap. England play on Sunday right? Think I will back Italy on the handicap if I have any success with my Saturday gambling

WILLK1977

I'v just gone for England -15, Scotland +10 and France -5

neil_hosey

WILLK1977 wrote: »

I'v just gone for England -15, Scotland +10 and France -5

scotland +10? i wouldnt fancy that all that much, but best of luck with it.

Nulty

I have

England (-9) -v- Italy

in an accumulator.

Hopefully england win by 12pts

PhatPiggins

Nulty wrote: »

I have

England (-9) -v- Italy

in an accumulator.

Hopefully england win by 12pts

England have a history of putting big scores on Italy. Their game matches very well against Italys spoiling/slow game tactics. I'd fancy Wilkinson to cover the handicap on his own.

This really is a poor Italian team this year and Ireland could have won by 30+ if they'd played the second half like they had in the first.

NavyandBlue

PhatPiggins wrote: »

England have a history of putting big scores on Italy. Their game matches very well against Italys spoiling/slow game tactics. I'd fancy Wilkinson to cover the handicap on his own.

This really is a poor Italian team this year and Ireland could have won by 30+ if they'd played the second half like they had in the first.

Wales -10 is Evs with Boylesports, ditto England -15.

Juwwi

wales -10

france -5

england -14 for me.

the 1 l fancy strongest is france -5.
the least fancy is wales -10 but scotland dont score trys so l'l go with wales.

lreland played bad last week and l dont have any faith in ronan o gara at all.

gona do singles on all mathces but theres a small independent near me who pays u out with a sour face so lm gona stick a 50 treble on all 3 with him.

Morzadec

robbie1977 wrote: »

wales -10

france -5

england -14 for me.

the 1 l fancy strongest is france -5.
the least fancy is wales -10 but scotland dont score trys so l'l go with wales.

lreland played bad last week and l dont have any faith in ronan o gara at all.

gona do singles on all mathces but theres a small independent near me who pays u out with a sour face so lm gona stick a 50 treble on all 3 with him.

Don't have the faith in O'Gara in waht respect? kicking? or just general play?

An experienced O'Gara is the one part of our team in which I feel we have a clear advantage over France. O'gara will knock over the points. I don;t have the same faith in the France kicker. This is where I think we could beat them or at the least close them.

If we're to lose I'll be surprised if it's down to O'Gara. If we lose it'll be cos we're raped up front imo

Kod-box

tommy bowe to score 1st try 12/1

worth a few quid imo

alitoast

13/8 on wales to win by less than 12.5 on Betfair, good price i reckon. I think this will be closer than people anticipate, scotland are a more organised unit now under Robinson, my concern is an early try from Wales....on their day they can be devastating and can run up a score pretty quick if in the mood, if its close after 20 mins i'll be happy

Collie D

I think the handicaps are more or less spot on this week so will leave alone. Like the look of that 13/8 for Wales to win by less than 12.5 though.

Morzadec

Well that's my bet pretty much dead in the water already. Wales playing really poorly.

Heres hoping one of my first tryscorer bets in the Ireland game come off to bring me into profit

alitoast

alitoast wrote: »

13/8 on wales to win by less than 12.5 on Betfair, good price i reckon. I think this will be closer than people anticipate, scotland are a more organised unit now under Robinson, my concern is an early try from Wales....on their day they can be devastating and can run up a score pretty quick if in the mood, if its close after 20 mins i'll be happy

:o hard luck Scotland, i was sure my money was down the swanny there.

Juwwi

Morzadec wrote: »

Don't have the faith in O'Gara in waht respect? kicking? or just general play?

An experienced O'Gara is the one part of our team in which I feel we have a clear advantage over France. O'gara will knock over the points. I don;t have the same faith in the France kicker. This is where I think we could beat them or at the least close them.

If we're to lose I'll be surprised if it's down to O'Gara. If we lose it'll be cos we're raped up front imo

just his over all play,l would much prefare to see sexton playing.


l had 20 quid in running at 12/1 on the wales game to draw

Collie D

robbie1977 wrote: »

l had 20 quid in running at 12/1 on the wales game to draw

Unlucky...was convinced myself when they were ten points down they would get the draw. Poor Scottish discipline. Would take a draw in Paris the way things are going at the moment....and your points about O'Gara are lokig spot on...poor game for him so far.

Juwwi

any1 fancy anything this weekend?

lm thinking 10/11 lreland +1 to beat england could be a good bet this weekend.

england scored 3 trys against wales but 2 of them was when wales had a man in the sinbin and the other was an interception.
then against italy they only scored the 1 try.


france -6 against wales looks the call to me.

also scotland -5 looks the call to me.

lve picked all away teams tho which lm weary of.

myflipflops

robbie1977 wrote: »

also scotland -5 looks the call to me.
.

There was -2 around and -3 still readily available (Coral, Bluesq amongst others).

Looks a big bet to me at the -3 anyway.

Morzadec

I've backed Wales +9 against Ireland for today as I see it being a close enough game.

Anyone have any bets on?

EDIT: Also tempted by England -4, what do yous reckon?

alitoast

Morzadec wrote: »

I've backed Wales +9 against Ireland for today as I see it being a close enough game.

Anyone have any bets on?

EDIT: Also tempted by England -4, what do yous reckon?

gone for the same myself, i think this will be close, unless Ireland come out of the blocks and score early and get a head of steam up. Wales +9 is a value bet for me