Dutching the Gold Cup

Nulty

Has anyone considered putting the mortgage on dutching Kauto and Denman in the Gold cup?

Forgive my ignorace and I will forgoe any assumption that you have worked it out.

Denman 9/4 Best Price Lads, Will Hill

100 @ 9/4 = 225

Kauto Star 11/8 Best Price PP

135 @ 11/8 = 185.62

Kauto wins + 85.62

Denman wins + 90

Safer than a forecast. If one comes down, the other will surely win. Worst case scenario - they bring each other down. Jinxed.

Any thoughts?

westlife2010

yip, makes sense...really liking the 'without the top 2' option on Cooldine. Nice performance on sunday from a horse basically having his first run this season. If anyway back to the form that saw him destroy the Sun alliance field last year (with What A Friend well and truly bashed) he would look a knocking bet..... just checked the price, 3/1 with tote sport. Just looking at what he has to beat and i am getting more exited about this bet. Imperial (does he stay and jumping questions now) Taranis (again staying and that recent win has a dubious feel to it, not sure how good the form is) look to be his 2 main dangers...........................my new banker for the meeting :rolleyes:

UrbanSea

westlife2010 wrote: »

yip, makes sense...really liking the 'without the top 2' option on Cooldine. Nice performance on sunday from a horse basically having his first run this season. If anyway back to the form that saw him destroy the Sun alliance field last year (with What A Friend well and truly bashed) he would look a knocking bet..... just checked the price, 3/1 with tote sport. Just looking at what he has to beat and i am getting more exited about this bet. Imperial (does he stay and jumping questions now) Taranis (again staying and that recent win has a dubious feel to it, not sure how good the form is) look to be his 2 main dangers...........................my new banker for the meeting :rolleyes:

Agreed. If you look at the betting without the top 2 it's rather disappointing. Notre Pere had looked good before this season but has rather disappointed.
Madison du berlias hasn't lived up to expectations.
Although cooldine ran a good race,he still hasn't quite fulfilled his potential.I think the place betting only without the favourite might be good to have taranis or even carruthers I think could run a good race.

Nulty

Can anyone lend me €235 til March?

Or if your flush €2350?

UrbanSea

In the post:P

Colonel Sanders

Another way to look at it (disclaimer, assumes 11/8 Kauto and 9/4 Denman will still be available when the bookies go NRNB)

If those prices remain if you have €136.84 on Kauto and €100 on Denman you are guaranteed a profit of 88.16 if either win.

If any of them don't run the other will surely start odds on and you can lay off for a free bet (and get your money back on the non runner)

Kauto would be a shorted price in the absence of Denman than Denman would be in the absence of Kauto (IMO) so the stakes being skewed towards Kauto makes sense

Nulty

When do you expect the bookies to go NRNB?

corny

Nulty wrote: »

When do you expect the bookies to go NRNB?

Its normally in between a week or two beforehand.

cson

Just watched the market on Betfair there and it would seem Denman either fell or was bet out the gate. Tricky Trickster won with Niche Market second it looked like. More on this later.

Bit of a setback either way for the Denman crew.

handsomecake

cson wrote: »

Just watched the market on Betfair there and it would seem Denman either fell or was bet out the gate. Tricky Trickster won with Niche Market second it looked like. More on this later.

Bit of a setback either way for the Denman crew.

mccoy fell off him

mdwexford

Good god that was a shocker, 1.03 in running.
Bet Findlay is raging he didnt keep Ruby or Sam onboard now.

tatoo

Poetic justice for Barber and Findlay after discarding their Gold Cup winning jockey Sam Thomas .

Morgans

Denman was beaten before McCoy fell off. Never travelling well as he should have been. McCoy looking behind him hoping there was no one near him turning in. Had he stood up he would have been third at best.

More excuses needed for those who took the Ante Post.

mdwexford

He was definitely looking under pressure just before the first mistake.
Price gone on Kauto now, didnt think there was a chance of that happening today, gutted.

Morgans

I dont think McCoy made any difference. Ruby falls off also, and falls off good jumpers as well. Horse not himself. Would be shame if there are more excuses for the horse when Kauto beats him next month.

handsomecake

john francombe while not blaming mccoy did elude to the fact ruby rides him completely differently

corny

Yeah Niche Market was closing fast before the mistake. PN said he'd left a lot to do with him. Has to be an awful lot on that showing.

cson

Hmmm, watched it on racinguk.com just there. He was slow to get going but jumped well, he was tanking along before the first mistake. Two things I noticed about McCoy's ride; the amount of looking behind he did was fairly ridiculous, I'm a big proponent of concentrating on what's in front of you first and look behind if you must on the run in. Denman is a far superior horse to those who ran against him today and McCoy should have been concentrating on the one tangible rival he had today - the fences themselves. When you're on an animal like Denman that you know is superior to his competitors, what's going on behind shouldn't concern you. Secondly, McCoy chose to ride him into some fences whilst let him jump others of his own volition. The first mistake seemed a combination - McCoy started to ride him into the fence and then stopped to let him take it himself. The unseating itself was a touch poor, I think he might have managed to stay in the plate for it.

Overall, I'll forgive McCoy that it was his first time riding Denman and I can't help but think he'll pay for it by being dumped for Sam Thomas if he'll take the ride again - which I wouldn't blame him for not doing. If Thomas gets back on Denman I wouldn't rule him out for the Gold Cup. The price on KS is gone now at this stage but I can't but help think it'll make for a better reverse forecast price - how bout a Denman-Kauto Star 1-2 for the third time running?

cson

mdwexford wrote: »

He was definitely looking under pressure just before the first mistake.
Price gone on Kauto now, didnt think there was a chance of that happening today, gutted.

Don't agree with that at all. He was tanking along imo, jumped the fence before the first mistake excellently iirc.

Nulty

Watching it live I thought Denman was jumping too big. McCoy was encouraging him. I don't understand why

Colonel Sanders

off topic, the first 2 have blown their handicap marks for the grand national

cson

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

off topic, the first 2 have blown their handicap marks for the grand national

Yeah, I had Tricky Trickster down as one of my fancies - had he come within 10-15 lengths of Denman today I was going to back him for it.

mdwexford

cson wrote: »

Don't agree with that at all. He was tanking along imo, jumped the fence before the first mistake excellently iirc.

I have to watch it again but my first reaction was he looked in trouble.

cson

mdwexford wrote: »

I have to watch it again but my first reaction was he looked in trouble.

He wouldn't have put them away by 20+ but he'd have won, in my own opinion.

Morgans

I think its obvious why McCoy was looking behind him. He wanted to see how hard he was going to have to get with Denman to win the race. He wasnt going as well as he thought he would be - and looked around to see how well the others were travelling, hoping that they would be fading. They werent. It was the exact same look that Ruby gave on Master Minded at Punchestown last year.

Jumped the cross fence fine, maybe 5l up, struggling from the turn in, down to 2l when he made his first mistake. That was bad enough, that he was 6l down and only going backward when unseating.

I dont think he would have won. But where he finished wouldnt have made much difference, as it was clear that he was well below form. The fact that its not the first time his jumping technique has gone to pieces under pressure is a little worrying - the unseat was just about identical to the one vs Madison at Aintree.

Whyno

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

off topic, the first 2 have blown their handicap marks for the grand national

Is it not to late for the handicapper to take these races into consideration when weighing up the GN.

Morgans

Whyno wrote: »

Is it not to late for the handicapper to take these races into consideration when weighing up the GN.

No weights come out on Tuesday and would be very surprised if they were changed much by the handicapper. Pretty much ran to form against each other.

Colonel Sanders

Race conditions

"for six yrs old and upwards which are allotted a rating of 110 or more by the BHA Head of Handicapping following a review of the horses entered and after taking account of races run up to and including February 14th."