Dunguib, back or wait??

premierstone

Just looking for guys views here, there is still some 5/4 available for the supreme, do people reckon this is likely to be cut much if he wins impressively on Sunday??

Basically should I wait untill Sunday or take the 5/4 now, of course there is also the possibility that he is so impressive sunday connections are tempted to go the champion route.

Colonel Sanders

he was about 6/4 on Betfair last night. Always the option of backing him and putting a lay up immediately in the knowledge he will probably shorten as the race approaches and most certainly will if he wins impressively

eire750

tricky but they seem fairly sure he is going to the supreme...I would do half my stake today and the other hald post the race on sunday if i was backing him.

Morgans

Nuts if they were going for the champion. I think he is shocking value for the Supreme, but I'd be pretty confident that is the race he will run in.

premierstone

Morgans wrote: »

Nuts if they were going for the champion. I think he is shocking value for the Supreme, but I'd be pretty confident that is the race he will run in.

I keep hearing how the Champion will be the race of the meeting and the like but to me the only reason the Champion is so hard to call and competitive is because theres a combination of mediocre horses and others woefully out of form, I certainly wouldnt be laying Dunquib if he lined up.

Why do you think he is shocking value for the supreme if we assume he definitely lines up? Unbeaten over hurdles, all wins were extremely comfortable, no ground concerns, has run and won in a big field and has course form where he was one of the most impressive champion bumper winners of all time, personally I cant envisage anything beating him in the supreme.

Morgans

premierstone wrote: »

I keep hearing how the Champion will be the race of the meeting and the like but to me the only reason the Champion is so hard to call and competitive is because theres a combination of mediocre horses and others woefully out of form, I certainly wouldnt be laying Dunquib if he lined up.

Why do you think he is shocking value for the supreme if we assume he definitely lines up? Unbeaten over hurdles, all wins were extremely comfortable, no ground concerns, has run and won in a big field and has course form where he was one of the most impressive champion bumper winners of all time, personally I cant envisage anything beating him in the supreme.

And if he was 9/4, I think there is a sound arguement to back him, but 5/4 is ridiculous. He hasnt posted the highest RPR for instance. Horses like Menorah has a serious chance. He hammered the horse I liked long term for the race Bellvano at Sandown. I think that form is very strong. Similar level of form and is 8 times the odds.

Dunguib may well go out and do it on Sunday, (I will be back Whodoyouthink ew against him, and heavily if 8 stand their ground. I have him rated about the same as Dunguib on this year's hurdling form). I think he is even more ridiculous odds to win on Sunday - 2/7 I think I saw somewhere.

I hope Peddlers Cross doesnt go for the Supreme, I've him backed for the Sun Alliance. I think he is probably the best novice Ive seen this year. The record of teh Cheltenham Bumper is far from stellar. Dunguib might win Sunday, and might hack up in the Supreme again, but i think there are better 5/4 shots running every day of every week.

Diggy78

premierstone wrote: »

I keep hearing how the Champion will be the race of the meeting and the like but to me the only reason the Champion is so hard to call and competitive is because theres a combination of mediocre horses and others woefully out of form, I certainly wouldnt be laying Dunquib if he lined up.

Why do you think he is shocking value for the supreme if we assume he definitely lines up? Unbeaten over hurdles, all wins were extremely comfortable, no ground concerns, has run and won in a big field and has course form where he was one of the most impressive champion bumper winners of all time, personally I cant envisage anything beating him in the supreme.

Couldn't agree with this at all. There are a lot of horses under 16-1 which I dont fancy at all for the Champion Hurdle such as Celestial Halo, Punjabi, Sublimity but I'd fancy any or all of them to beat Dunguib this year. At the end of the day he's a novice, I don't think that can be stressed enough. Yes he's unbeaten over hurdles and he's won in a big field but he hasn't even won in a big field in a hurdle race yet which I think is very different from a Bumper. Nevermind that he's only been running against novices, who will never be hurdling with the fluency that most will in the champion hurdle. Personally I couldn't see him placed in a champion this year and would lay all day.

I'm still undecided about the supreme, might end up just watching as I do think he'll win but 5-4 does look a little skinny to me also. Ah who am I kidding, I'm sure I'll end up backing him on the morning of it. I do probably agree with you here that I can't see another novice beating him, but I've not been able to see a horse beaten plenty of times before!!!:)

Diggy78

premierstone wrote: »

Just looking for guys views here, there is still some 5/4 available for the supreme, do people reckon this is likely to be cut much if he wins impressively on Sunday??

Basically should I wait untill Sunday or take the 5/4 now, of course there is also the possibility that he is so impressive sunday connections are tempted to go the champion route.

Apologies Premierstone, didn't even answer your original question. Personally I doubt he could win it in a fashion that would shorten his odds. None of his English rivals in the betting for the Supreme are running so I dont think he could boost his own form levels any by winning other than to show his wellbeing.

In saying all that, Solwhit ran the same race the last time as he had previously and was shortened. I'd still think wait though. I mean if a horse wins a race at 2-7, then do we really know any more about him than we did previously?

mdwexford

He wont be shorter than 5/4 on the day, i reckon about 13/8.
People underestimate the strength of the markets at the festival, there will be bookies willing to take him on.

Morgans

mdwexford wrote: »

He wont be shorter than 5/4 on the day, i reckon about 13/8.
People underestimate the strength of the markets at the festival, there will be bookies willing to take him on.

I agree with that. I think there will be several bookies looking to take him on. I remember thinking Back In Front was overpriced a few years ago at 3/1, and watched smugly as he was backed into 2/1 on the morning, only to drift to 3/1 on the day. Hopefully, the result will be the same for connections, but I do think that he is a very skinny price now.

premierstone

Anyone willing to give me 13/8 now lads if this horse is bet I'll pack it in, an absolute machine, will win the supreme on the bridle

Morgans

Superb engine. If the horse hadnt put in so many abject jumps, he would deserve to be even shorter than he is. I still think bookies will take him on on the day. Im not a fan of the trainer and do not have any faith in anyone wishing to turn his jumping ability on in the space of a month. He has a superb engine, and while he might be good enough to get away with poor jumping in the supreme, I still think he would be murdered in the champion. If he doesnt lose too much ground over obstacles at the festival, he should win.

mdwexford

Dont know how some bookies shortened him on the back of todays run, all it proved is the horse is a bad jumper.

He still will not go off odds on anyway imo, evens with Ladbrokes but i still think 6/4 on the day.

westlife2010

ridic reaction to his win today from the bookies. his jumping was sloppy (for the first time) and he won....... well... like a 2/7 shot should! crazy price now

Whyno

mdwexford wrote: »

Dont know how some bookies shortened him on the back of todays run, all it proved is the horse is a bad jumper.

He still will not go off odds on anyway imo, evens with Ladbrokes but i still think 6/4 on the day.

Will you lay me 6/4 mick
This is the irish banker an deffo will be odds on in chel. I reckon he'll go off 1/2 or worse. What a performance though. Jumped one hurdle ( the last, and it wasnt a great jump) but looked every bit the machine hes rumoured to be. Will be better on better ground imo and will jump better to i hope.

mdwexford

Hmm lay at 1.99 on Betfair or give you 2.5, let me see.......:p

I will give you evens that the horse goes off 10/11 or worse though, even money or bigger i win.

Whyno

mdwexford wrote: »

Hmm lay at 1.99 on Betfair or give you 2.5, let me see.......:p

I will give you evens that the horse goes off 10/11 or worse though, even money or bigger i win.

I'll have a friendly 50yoyos with ya on that if ya like.

mdwexford

Yeah cool, make it $50 sure just so it's handy to transfer on a poker site after the race.

Whyno

mdwexford wrote: »

Yeah cool, make it $50 sure just so it's handy to transfer on a poker site after the race.

Cool.If i lose i can give it to richie either. My BR management on d pokers would not be the may west :P

mdwexford

Opposition took a knock today, chance he could go off 4/5 ish now, i live in hope they still take him on though.

Shane732

He's 4/6 at the moment.

I'm wondering how big to go in.... He is the Irish banker this year and will make or break the festival for most Irish punters. I can't decide how big I want to go in....

If he gets turned (pretty unlikely, I think) then the festival it'll be some job to make the rest back up - but if he wins then I'm nearly even for the festival overall regardless rest of the festival

Anyone want to give me evens?!!

krustydoyle

If you can get evens after menorah been beaten today fair play to ye...

Whyno

mdwexford wrote: »

Opposition took a knock today, chance he could go off 4/5 ish now, i live in hope they still take him on though.

4/5 will be stealing money....Your only hope was menorah sluicing up but instead dickie johnson thought he was riding a 5 furlong race. Never gave his mount a chance imo....

Whyno

Shane732 wrote: »

He's 4/6 at the moment.

I'm wondering how big to go in.... He is the Irish banker this year and will make or break the festival for most Irish punters. I can't decide how big I want to go in....

If he gets turned (pretty unlikely, I think) then the festival it'll be some job to make the rest back up - but if he wins then I'm nearly even for the festival overall regardless rest of the festival

Anyone want to give me evens?!!

Borrow beg and steal....You wont ever get enough on...:)

mdwexford

Whyno wrote: »

4/5 will be stealing money....Your only hope was menorah sluicing up but instead dickie johnson thought he was riding a 5 furlong race. Never gave his mount a chance imo....

I still reckon first race bookies will be full of hope, an odds on novice, meh they might decide to take him on.
The only doubts now are jumping, jockey and maybe some unexposed Istabraq reincarnation.

Yeah they went way too fast in front, he was out on his feet 2 out. Not a big Johnson fan tbh, does stuff like that way too often for my liking.

Whyno

mdwexford wrote: »

I still reckon first race bookies will be full of hope, an odds on novice, meh they might decide to take him on.
The only doubts now are jumping, jockey and maybe some unexposed Istabraq reincarnation.

Yeah they went way too fast in front, he was out on his feet 2 out. Not a big Johnson fan tbh, does stuff like that way too often for my liking.

After today hes gone well down the pecking order for me to. Normally was one of the more reliable ones.
I think he'll scare away anyone with a potential improver for fear of being destroyed. Dunguib will relish the fast pace an i think it'll bring out the best in his jumping. Hes been in a big field in chel before so i think the only hope that his jumping really does fail him but i think he'll show his true potential and put the frighteners up everyone for next years champion with a breathtaking performance and win by more than ten lengths.:)
I think if he loses this country will go even deeper into recession as anyone with chunks of money hid under the mattress will be lumping on and pushing him into the shortest price fav of the festival.I backed him at 5s with boyles to be the shortest priced winning fav of the 4 hotpots.

mdwexford

Its certainly possible that he could do that, id like to see a new hurdling superstar, theyve all been beating each other since Istabraqs retirement.

5's is value now anyway, its between him and Big Bucks.

Morgans

Johnson was always "top of the championship" class of jockey. Had he ridden the horse with any skill between the final two hurdles he would have had still won.

I still think Dunguib will have to improve on what he has done over hurdles so far to win, but it looks like he could do it standing on his head. I think the best piece of form he has shown is still the fact that he beat Rite of Passage so easily last year. There are still enough reasons for the bookies to take him on (jumping being the main one) and I'm not sure the Irish punters are willing to put all their eggs into the first basket. Not sure they will go odds against but bookies will want to get him.

Henderson seems to have the english novice scene sorted and it will be interesting to hear the vibes behind Bellvano (even if Oscar Whisky is shorter in the betting) as JP was very sweet on him, even after losing to Menorah at christmas. It will be interesting to see if McCoy chooses him and they reroute Get me out of Here to the County. Probably playing for second if Dunguib jumps.

Colonel Sanders

I certainly don't think evs is out of the question on the day. On course bookies will always take on the Irish 'good thing' in the first. I personally think Dunguib is the winner bar a fall.

prettyboy81

I believe he will be taken on by the bookies on the day of the race, I'll be waiting to the day to back....make sure all the vibes are right about the horse, he has traveled over well, etc....

But IMO that price of 5's you got with Boyle's for him to be the shortest price fav is a smashing bet, hope it pays out for you.....

Shane732

I honestly think Dunguib would probably be good enough to win the Champion Hurdle this year.

He's a good thing for the novices bar a fall regardless of what price he goes off.

I think his starting price will depend a lot on how the English punters hit him. If they go in hard then he could easily go off 1/2 but if they decide to sit the race out (first race and maybe not keen on hitting big early) he could drift out as far as evens. I don't see him going odds against though.

RichieLawlor

There is no way Dunguib goes off shorter than Big Bucks.

Big Bucks is absolutely bombproof, no question marks, no worries. That fact that he is still 4/6 is a major rick on the part of the bookies

mdwexford

Shane732 wrote: »

I honestly think Dunguib would probably be good enough to win the Champion Hurdle this year.

He's a good thing for the novices bar a fall regardless of what price he goes off.

I think his starting price will depend a lot on how the English punters hit him. If they go in hard then he could easily go off 1/2 but if they decide to sit the race out (first race and maybe not keen on hitting big early) he could drift out as far as evens. I don't see him going odds against though.

Do you really know how much money it would take to move him from 4/5 to 1/2, at Wexford or Clonmel or some other gaff track it could happen not at the festival where the markets are so strong, its impossible.

Colonel Sanders

for Dunguib to start 1/2 would need a rash of non runners at the head of the market. And even then few bookmakers worth their salt would let him go off that price in the opener.

Shane732

mdwexford wrote: »

Do you really know how much money it would take to move him from 4/5 to 1/2, at Wexford or Clonmel or some other gaff track it could happen not at the festival where the markets are so strong, its impossible.

Yes I know it would take a huge amount of money but I really think the money could come for him if the English get stuck into him.

He's currently 4/6 (generally) with the bookies and 5/6 on the exchanges. There's only about €220K matched on him on betfair with about €1-2K waiting. People appear to be holding off. The market has yet to take off. I think it's possible.

Morgans

Morgans wrote: »

And if he was 9/4, I think there is a sound arguement to back him, but 5/4 is ridiculous. He hasnt posted the highest RPR for instance. Horses like Menorah has a serious chance. He hammered the horse I liked long term for the race Bellvano at Sandown. I think that form is very strong. Similar level of form and is 8 times the odds.

Dunguib not good enough jumper unfortunately. And even at that probably not quite as good as thought. Maybe needs a bog, but doesnt like jumping.

My own personal opinion would be to give another trainer a shot at it.