Your three golden rules of gambling

kingshankly

Would be intersted to know what if any rules yee have when it comes to gambling, my three that I try and stick to are
1
get value this is by far the most important rule when it comes to gambling, if you have to walk to the top of the street toget a 1/4 point more in a different firm do it, It all adds up
2
never ever back anything without consulting betfair, i often see punters backing a 6/4 dog thats 8/1 on betfair,yes the odd one still wins but it's usual they don't. If you can get yourself a phone that you can access betfair as you will always be a few seconds ahead of the bookie
3
never gamble what you can't afford whether your betting in 50 cents or 500s it's all relative to what you can afford

Reginald P. DuM

Yo king.. Your three rules are pretty solid I think, most seasoned gamblers will agree I'm sure.. I use Betfair most of the time unless I'm in the pub and it's handier to go nextdoor. The value point is absolutely key of course. Another suggestion I would offer is never chase, know when your having a bad day and know when to quit. Your luck will, and does change. The key to successful punting I think is to identify outcomes that the bookmaker has under-estimated in their pricing. Also the amount you stake should always reflect the confidence you have in winning, and not on the odds offered. Gambling is a hobby of mine, I can give it up for periods. Thankfully I have never considered myself an addict, I have seen the damage it can do and it's no joke. Looking forward to Cheltenham though!!

thedini

Discipline, Discipline, Discipline.

Kod-box

1. follow my gut instinct, if it loses so be it i tried and failed, if it wins its what gambling is all about for me (bar the money lol), the feeling of being right against odds, if it wins and i pussied out/didnt bother going the bookies its a stinging feeling.

2. Dont chase, obvious really, rash decisions on stupid gambles.

3. dont gamble when im drinking, lost alot of money on the blackjack tables lol.

aya14

1. Never ever gamble beyond your means.

2. Always find the value.

www.oddschecker.com

3. Win

Fishyfreak

For an amateur football gambler like me (a €5 bet here and there every few weeks):

1. Never change your mind & have faith in your knowledge, especially letting some muppet on the interweb change your mind.

2. Never count up the potential winnings before the football match has even started.

3. Don't back on any match that Man Utd/Liverpool/Celtic/Rangers are involved in!!

am i bovvered

1. never gamble
2. never ever gamble
3. never ever ever gamble

mike65

Thats probably the wisest option!

kingshankly, you mention BF prices I have noticed that if you open www.timeform.com/free there is live back/lay info for every race. Should I be paying more attention to this as I'm not a BF member?

Rjd2

1....Never ever back Tottenham no matter who the opposition is:pac:
2.....Stay clear of accums, sure a couple will come in but majority of the time one side will always let you down and which will break your heart.
3....dont gamble:p

Vurnon San Benito

Coming from a small scale gambler :

1. Don't gamble what you can't afford to lose.
2. Look at the potential loss, not the possible returns.
3. Discipline. Know when to stop and give it a rest.

eldrickwoods

1. Always back at best price.
2. Keep the faith - make good bets and you'll win in the long run.
3. Never follow tv pundits' advice.

ArmaniJeanss

1. Have a minimum stake which means something to you.
This very much goes against the 'only bet small, keep it fun' mantra.
However I always find that people lose the bulk of their money with €5 here, €5 there bets, €2 on a dog tricast, €3 on a football correct score combo etc.

So you should have a minimum bet, say €50 or €100 depending on your circumstances. This will make you focus on your betting, research your selections etc. You may actually go weeks without a bet, but when you do have a bet at least you will know you truly believe in it.

2. Start at the bottom, not at the top.
So many horseracing punters start by looking at the fav, then the 2nd fav, then the 3rd fav and basically stop at the first one which takes their fancy, write their docket and put their bet on.
I do the opposite, start with the rank outsiders, look at their form, see which of the longest price outsiders can have a case made for them. Even if you end up at the top backing the favourite at least you have given everything a chance.

3. Proven form is generally better than potential. Specifically on the flat you will see a beautifully bred 10 length winner of a maiden, trained by one of the top trainers going into Group 3 company against proven Group 3 and Group 2performers but who are exposed as being below top class. The maiden winner will often go off at ridiculous prices, Evens or less. 99%+ of the time these maiden winners will also end up being just below top class themselves, so the value in these races is the unexciting but proven contender.

hitman79

I dont back the team i support(everton)
I dont back liverpool cus i just cant cheer them on
And dont go near Celtic this season cus they've cost me a fortune!

abouttobebanned

There's only one that matters. Be true to yourself. Don't pretend that you're a disciplined, semi pro punter. If you don't have the discipline, the game will beat you, and beat you hard. So get out of the game.

In__tuition

1. Comfort - bet on sports you have experience in, whether that be watching or playing, the more aware you are of the sports you are betting on the more comfortable you can feel by parting with your money initially.

2. Addiction - everyone reading this forum has a soft-spot for gambling, if you feel the need to bet more when you have lost then you need to look at yourself in the mirror (literally), stepaside and physically look at yourself and think tomorrow/weekend is another day.

3. Money Management - Fairly straight-forward, do not borrow money to gamble, whether it be from your wife/girlfriend/parents/friends, if you can't afford to have a wager today even though 'x' team is missing 'x' amount of players, don't borrow it.

*Overall, do not let gambling overcome you, if you control it, it can be quite enjoyable.

PhatPiggins

Patience+Discilpline=Profit

Picking winners is far more important then value. Far too often I read people tipping team x over team y because x are 6/4 and they think its a 50/50 match. Bollix, always bet on who you think will win and ingnore the "value" price.

dsmythy

PhatPiggins wrote: »

Patience+Discilpline=Profit

Picking winners is far more important then value. Far too often I read people tipping team x over team y because x are 6/4 and they think its a 50/50 match. Bollix, always bet on who you think will win and ingnore the "value" price.

So for example you think Liverpool will beat Wolves yet the draw for some unknown reason is 100/1. Extreme example i know but you'd push on and back Liverpool anyway? I'm sorry but what you said there is wrong.

kingshankly

Picking winners is far more important then value. Far too often I read people tipping team x over team y because x are 6/4 and they think its a 50/50 match. Bollix, always bet on who you think will win and ingnore the "value" price.[/QUOTE]

Couldn't disagree more your own judgement isn't enough. If you keep backing at inflated prices you will have a better chance of winning
so a game as you say is 50:50 if one person backs team a at 6/4 every time and one person back team b at 4/7 every time the first person will be in profit in the long run

PhatPiggins

dsmythy wrote: »

So for example you think Liverpool will beat Wolves yet the draw for some unknown reason is 100/1. Extreme example i know but you'd push on and back Liverpool anyway? I'm sorry but what you said there is wrong.

Thats a terrible example. It doesn't matter if the draw is 10/1 or 4/1 if you think there is no chance of it happening then you shouldn't back it.

I'm not suggesting you shouldn't find the best price i.e always use oddschecker but if your betting purely because you think the price is value then your the bookies best friend.

myflipflops

PhatPiggins wrote: »

I'm not suggesting you shouldn't find the best price i.e always use oddschecker but if your betting purely because you think the price is value then your the bookies best friend.

It's precisely the opposite. If you are picking winners and ignoring price, a bookmaker loves your business.

PhatPiggins

myflipflops wrote: »

It's precisely the opposite. If you are picking winners and ignoring price, a bookmaker loves your business.

I think your going off on a different tangent. What I'm suggesting is that you should pick a winner and find the best available price.

A lot of people seem to bet purely on value. Dont let the price sway you just go with your gut/selection.

It works for both sides short odd favs are'nt bankers just because they're short and 100/1 shots are long for a reason.

myflipflops

'Value' is an overused term.

To me it means backing a selection at a price that is higher than the true reflection of the event occurring. The easy example is getting 6/4 on the toss of a coin.

Looking to pick winning selections and then looking for best price is flawed in many ways (all gambling has flaws obviously) but mainly because it ignores assigning a value to the selection before deciding you should bet on it. This is what winning punters generally do - price up matches/races or whatever themselves and look to back selections where they feel they gain a percentage advantage against a bookmaker. They are obvioulsy picking selections they feel have a very realistic chance of winning but will only bet when the price dictates they should. Gambling is maths based once you are knowledgable enough and a good enough judge to beat the bookmakers odds compilers which is not difficult on certain markets.

This method also involves one of the main things that kills 99% of punters - it creates a situation where you have NO BET at all. This option is ignored by most people but is a massive factor in a resulting profit/loss.

PhatPiggins

So would you back an event just because it is trading higher then you priced it?

Agree with you on the no bet selection

Verance

myflipflops wrote: »

This method also involves one of the main things that kills 99% of punters - it creates a situation where you have NO BET at all. This option is ignored by most people but is a massive factor in a resulting profit/loss.

Hahey, bookies have to gamble on every race but we can choose which to gamble on. :cool:
All we have to do is find the VALUE! If we succeed, we win in the long run and if we fail, we lose.

myflipflops

PhatPiggins wrote: »

So would you back an event just because it is trading higher then you priced it?

If I have confidence in my judgement on the matter then absolutely. In fact, this is the ONLY time i will have a bet.** I bet on certain sports only where I have a big edge - mainly cricket and athletics. My confidence in how I price these events compared to a bookmaker is high. Markets like the Premier League football are the worst betting markets available for punters in terms of making profit. Obvioulsy that's where opinion (and therefore ambiguity) comes into play and where the 'picking winners' aspect of it comes in.

The fact is, there is only one reason EVER to tip something up and that's that the price is too big. If you are accurate and you are continually backing selections @ 5/4 when the real 100% likelihood of them occuring is and even money shot then you are guaranteed to make money. How you come about this scenario has to be a mixture of picking selections and finding the right price but the price is by far the most important factor.


** Just to elaborate on this, the way you have morded your question is actually perfect fo me and sums up my notion of value.

You have to see that it makes no sense to back any selection at a price LOWER than what you believe it should be. Mathematically, it makes it impossible to win in the long term. If you fancy a horse bt make it 4/1 shot to wn the race but best price is 7/2 then you cannot back it no matter how much you fancy it. This is what makes prices so important.

dsmythy

PhatPiggins wrote: »

Thats a terrible example. It doesn't matter if the draw is 10/1 or 4/1 if you think there is no chance of it happening then you shouldn't back it.

I'm not suggesting you shouldn't find the best price i.e always use oddschecker but if your betting purely because you think the price is value then your the bookies best friend.

Well never no chance. To use your example about the 6/4 50/50 thing. If your judgement on a tennis match for example is that it's too close to call then you surely would back at a price which suggest the chance of one of the competitors winning is 40% when your opinion is 45-55% or so. It just makes sense for me. Betting is all about your opinion versus the layers opinion at the end of the day so for me value is king and one of my 3 rules of gambling. Everyone has their own way of doing things i suppose.

lb1

1: Only ever stake a maximum of 2.5% of your bankroll.

2: Only ever place singles

3: Never back Soccer

PhatPiggins

You have to see that it makes no sense to back any selection at a price LOWER than what you believe it should be. Mathematically, it makes it impossible to win in the long term. If you fancy a horse bt make it 4/1 shot to wn the race but best price is 7/2 then you cannot back it no matter how much you fancy it. This is what makes prices so important

Sorry I cant agree with that. Picking a winning bet is far more important to me then price.

You seem fairly serious about it so I imagine you have an excell sheet of all you wins/losses trades/price historys and so on. How many winning bets have you passed on because you didn't like the price? Would they out value(that word again) the number of bets you would have lost if you had gotten the price you wanted?