Cross Border Shopping ... Is it past it's peak?

Rujib1

Looking at various recent economic stats coming out, I cannot help but think that the mertits of trekking over the border, are getting somewhat lessened, especially for those who live say more then 80 miles from the border.

1. UK inflation picking up at a record pace.

LONDON — British consumer-price inflation rose by its largest ever amount in December, due to the comparison with a cut in the sales tax, a fall in oil prices and early Christmas sales.

Inflation rose to a 2.9% year-on-year rate in December from 1.9% on-year in November — well above the Bank of England's 2.0% target and also analyst expectations, the Office for National Statistics said.

2. Domestic ROI Deflation taking strong hold. Source ESRI website.

Prices fall by 5.0% in the year to December
Consumer Prices in December, as measured by the CPI decreased by 0.5% in the
month. This compares to a decrease of 1.2% recorded in December of last year.
As a result, prices on average, as measured by the CPI, were 5.0% lower in
December compared with December 2008.
The EU Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) also decreased by 0.5%
in the month compared to a decrease of 0.7% in December of last year. Prices on
average, as measured by the HICP, were 2.6% lower in December compared with
December 2008.
The most notable changes in the year were decreases in Housing, Water,
Electricity, Gas & Other Fuels (-21.2%), Clothing & Footwear (-14.7%), Food
& Non-Alcoholic Beverages (-8.1%), and Furnishings, Household Equipment &
Routine Household Maintenance (-4.8%). There were increases in Education
(+11.3%), Miscellaneous Goods&Services (+5.4%), Health (+2.5%), Transport
(+2.1%) and Alcoholic Beverages & Tobacco (+1.2%).
Services prices fell by 5.1% in the year to December, while Goods fell by 4.8%.
The most significant monthly price changes were decreases in Clothing &
Footwear (-3.6%), Alcoholic Beverages & Tobacco (-1.5%), Transport (-0.8%),
Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages (-0.5%) and Restaurants & Hotels (-0.4%).
The main factors contributing to the monthly change were as follows:
Clothing & Footwear fell with lower prices for both clothing and
footwear as sales continued.
Alcoholic Beverages & Tobacco fell as a result of decreases in the
price of spirts and wine sold in supermarkets and off licences.
Transport fell due to lower prices for new and second-hand cars.
Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages fell due to lower prices across a
wide range of products.
The CPI excluding tobacco index for December fell by 0.5% in the month and
was down 5.4% in the year. The CPI excluding energy products decreased by
0.5% in the month and decreased by 5.7% in the year. The CPI excluding
mortgage interest fell by 0.6% in the month and was down by 2.2% in the year.
For more information, contact Andrew Murray at 021 453 5122 or Noreen

3. Sterling now at a 4 month high against the Euro.

4. Currency futures, indicating further declines in Euro vs Sterling largely because of worries of Greece defaulting and potentially destabilizing the Euro for a time into the near to mid term future.


Put it all together, and you conclude that the big trek up north, hardly justifies the travel costs, hassle factor, long queues, etc,.

R1

Fratton Fred

I don't think the 2.9% includes groceries, so that won't matter.

Sterling may be at a 4 month high, but it is still only €1.14, prices are still way way lower in the UK.

ardmacha

There is still a need for more competition here and hopefully this will keep the lid on prices.

THe UK might very well increase vat to 19-20% when they start working on their deficit, Ireland might well reduce VAT to 18-19% when a property tax is introduced. The gap will reduce and a small gap in prices will not lead to people distant from the border making shopping trips.

omahaid

Nope, just got €852 worth of wine (for my wedding) delivered from the north for €480 (and I'm very south). We're not over the peak yet.

The_Honeybadger

omahaid wrote: »

Nope, just got €852 worth of wine (for my wedding) delivered from the north for €480 (and I'm very south). We're not over the peak yet.

And who could blame you, weddings are a costly business. I am certainly hoping inflation in the UK steams ahead and prices continue to gain competitiveness here. Our retailers and their staff need a bit of hope. Never been North for a shop myself as I am also in the South but I can understand families on low and middle incomes trying to save a few bob, even if it does damage our home economy.

Rujib1

omahaid wrote: »

Nope, just got €852 worth of wine (for my wedding) delivered from the north for €480 (and I'm very south). We're not over the peak yet.

So why didn't you go the whole hog and have the reception up there?
Could have saved a whole lot more of the queens shillings:)
Coulda got reverend Ian to perform the blessings:rolleyes:

R1

murphaph

Rujib1 wrote: »

So why didn't you go the whole hog and have the reception up there?
Could have saved a whole lot more of the queens shillings:)
Coulda got reverend Ian to perform the blessings:rolleyes:

R1

Bit harsh, no?

So long as the public sector is as innefficient as it is, I would find it hard to blame anyone from diverting their VAT to Her Majesty tbh.

If and when Ireland's government and public sector are running at a reasonably efficient level (ie, you get a good return for your tax dollar as the yanks would say) then fair enough, people should think differently.

The thing with wine is that the biggest percentage of the price goes straight to the exchequer. It's lazy taxation tbh.

omahaid

Rujib1 wrote: »

So why didn't you go the whole hog and have the reception up there?
Could have saved a whole lot more of the queens shillings:)
Coulda got reverend Ian to perform the blessings:rolleyes:

R1

Our original plan was to get married in Rome actually. Are people who do this wrong?

Even the EU don't object to bringing in items (for personal use) once we pay the appropriate excise duty in the country we buy them in.

My answer to your question still stands; no, cross border shopping is not past its peak. Not when it is so cheap. And when the situation changes, and the south is cheaper than the north, I will shop south

Permabear

This post has been deleted.

Sleepy

Harsh and I'd be pretty sure it's illegal too donegalfella

crossmolinalad

Just bought kerosene up in the north 39 cents a litre last week
Bags of coal were around 10 euros a bag bought a couple of bags too

Nermal

mickeyk wrote: »

even if it does damage our home economy.

It helps our economy by forcing deflation. Shopping in Northern Ireland is quite patriotic.

The_Honeybadger

Nermal wrote: »

It helps our economy by forcing deflation. Shopping in Northern Ireland is quite patriotic.

Dunno about that, look at all the jobs lost in retail, how is that helping the economy. If sterling recovers some or most of its lost value through UK inflation and we continue to see falling prices here the problem may have corrected itself anyway. The recession was driving prices down anyway. We probably needed a wake up call for sure but the cross border shopping is money leaving our economy for good, cant believe anybody would say that is a good thing.

omahaid

mickeyk wrote: »

the cross border shopping is money leaving our economy for good, cant believe anybody would say that is a good thing.

Thats fair, what we need to do is completely stop ALL imports into the country so that money doesn't leave Ireland. Good thinking man :rolleyes:

Technique

The workers in Northern Ireland have suffered in the past through lack of investment. In recent times they also suffered from strong sterling and shoppers flocking across the border to the south (before things started to go crazy here). But they never done the amount of whinging that southern business owners do - they just got on with things.

I don't begrudge them a bit of success.

The_Honeybadger

omahaid wrote: »

Thats fair, what we need to do is completely stop ALL imports into the country so that money doesn't leave Ireland. Good thinking man :rolleyes:

You know I wasnt suggesting that, but doing your weekly shop in the north means nobody in the republic benefits at all, not a retailer, not the government through VAT, not the hauliers who deliver the stock, nobody. The poster I was responding to was saying this was a good thing, if you agree with him fine but perhaps offer an opinion of your own rather than a cheap shot next time please.

darkman2

When the journeys up North end (and they will) the retail bubble on the other side of border is going to burst spectacularly. 1,000's of extra staff have been taken on up there to deal with the influx creating a bubble economy in border towns and indeed across the North dependent on Southern shoppers. The clock would appear to be ticking.

GSF

darkman2 wrote: »

1,000's of extra staff have been taken on up there to deal with the influx creating a bubble economy in border towns and indeed across the North dependent on Southern shoppers. The clock would appear to be ticking.

They will get jobs in the shops on the southern side of the border

mossfort

the whole problem is with the prices retailers here are charging. we see debenhams letting staff go and we all know they are ripping people off with the prices they are charging here compared to the uk or ni.
a lot of it can be blamed on higher rents or higher minimum wage but it all stems from the celtic tiger era when no one batted an eyelid at these ridicolous prices.
everyone wanted their share the devellopers the bankers the retailers and at the end of the day the shopper ended up picking up the tab.
when the recession hit people decided they could no longer afford these prices so decided to look elsewhere. now even with all the people heading north we still see these high prices in some retail outlets and they will stiil get their loyal customers.
the one thing that consumers want now is value for money and they will go where they have to in order to get it.

darkman2

UK inflation rate is now at 4%. Irish deflation is at 5%. Sterling is floundering under the stupidity of "quantitive easing" - printing money - things are going to get tough in the UK. Hyperinflation is a real danger there.

snaps

crossmolinalad wrote: »

Just bought kerosene up in the north 39 cents a litre last week
Bags of coal were around 10 euros a bag bought a couple of bags too

How did you buy the kerosene? Did you pick it up yourself?

ei.sdraob

Rujib1 wrote: »

1. UK inflation picking up at a record pace.

whats surprising is that it hasnt kicked in early

all that 200billion of freshly printed pounds is gonna lead to some serious inflation if their economy somewhat gets to normal

ei.sdraob

mickeyk wrote: »

Dunno about that, look at all the jobs lost in retail, how is that helping the economy. If sterling recovers some or most of its lost value through UK inflation and we continue to see falling prices here the problem may have corrected itself anyway. The recession was driving prices down anyway. We probably needed a wake up call for sure but the cross border shopping is money leaving our economy for good, cant believe anybody would say that is a good thing.

its forcing business to compete

no one wants to lower min wage or welfare so things will happen one way or another

people dont realize that we lived in a bubble and are now waking up to the consequences of loosing competitiveness

amacachi

donegalfella wrote: »

This post has been deleted.

The dentists I go to in Dundalk is full of employees with Northern accents and Northern cars. Another downside of our uncompetitiveness is that they can come down and charge even slightly below what other surgeries are charging and still be almost twice as well off than in a job 20 miles up the road closer to home.

crossmolinalad

snaps wrote: »

How did you buy the kerosene? Did you pick it up yourself?

Picked it up by myself with a tank trailer normally used for fuel transport for a digger behind my van

crossmolinalad

mickeyk wrote: »

You know I wasnt suggesting that, but doing your weekly shop in the north means nobody in the republic benefits at all, not a retailer, not the government through VAT, not the hauliers who deliver the stock, nobody. The poster I was responding to was saying this was a good thing, if you agree with him fine but perhaps offer an opinion of your own rather than a cheap shot next time please.

know another one dont go to lidl or aldi 70% of their goods are from germany holland uk and france

The_Honeybadger

crossmolinalad wrote: »

know another one dont go to lidl or aldi 70% of their goods are from germany holland uk and france

Whats your point? Do they not employ thousands of staff in the republic?

gurramok

ei.sdraob wrote: »

whats surprising is that it hasnt kicked in early

all that 200billion of freshly printed pounds is gonna lead to some serious inflation if their economy somewhat gets to normal

I've noticed alcohol(spirit) prices climb a bit up north since Xmas. Beer is mostly a non-runner for going up, not worth it. Shoppers beware!:)