ATR Ante post Focus

qc3

WITH snow, ice and freezing temperatures bringing racing to a near-standstill, what better time to run the clock forward a few months and try to predict the outcome of one of the summer Classics?
The Oaks is a race I've always liked as an ante-post punter because it usually cuts up into a manageable-sized field in which only a handful can be seriously considered in terms of class, pedigree and form.
As a result, you can have a decent each-way bet some way in advance fairly safe in the knowledge that if your selection actually makes it to the gig, there's a good chance you will collect provided you pay particular attention to the class and pedigree aspects.
The majority of Oaks winners tend to have been lightly raced as two-year-olds, so proven Group form is not especially important when it comes to drawing up a shortlist of contenders.
The quickest and best shortcut, I find, is to concentrate on fillies who are more or less guaranteed to stay a mile and a half, and if they have a high-class pedigree to boot so much the better.
Having run the rule over the first 20 or so in the betting, the one that leaps off the page for me is KITHONIA, trained by Henry Cecil, whose record in the race is already the stuff of legends.
Cecil has won the Oaks no less than eight times, the most recent being Light Shift in 2007, and came within a whisker of makng it nine last June when subsequent Breeders' Cup heroine Midday was inched out by Sariska.
Kithonia, who runs in the Light Shift colours of the Niarchos family, made a lasting impression on her only start at two, running out the decisive winner of a 7f Salisbury maiden on soft ground.
The time was nothing special but, if anything, that would have counted against the Sadler's Wells filly, who would surely have appreciated a stiffer test given the abundance of stamina in her pedigree.
With that in mind, it was particularly heartening to see her travel through the race with conspicuous ease before taking up the running a furlong out and forging clear of her rivals despite showing signs of greenness by gradually veering from the far rail to the centre of the track.
Interestingly she had run straight as a gun barrel up to that point and showed commendable courage when asked to go and win her race by sneaking through a narrow gap between the rail and leader Blue Sparkle, who was caught on the line for second.
The form as it stands needs plenty of improving on if Kithonia is to compete at the top level but the potential is there for all to see, we know she's got guts and speed, and there are Group 1 winners in her immediate family, notably French Derby hero and Arc runner-up Hernando.
It's also a good sign that after Salisbury she was left in the Fillies' Mile at Ascot until the overnight stage, suggesting that even before the autumn Cecil had championship aspirations for her.
The trainer has other obvious Oaks candidates in Listed-race winner Timepiece, half sister to Passage Of Time and Father Time, and Principal Role, who impressed when overcoming a slow start to land a Yarmouth maiden last backend. Both are owned by Khalid Abdulla and it will be interesting to see which emerges as the Prince's number one.
But there are no apparent owner conflict of interests concerning Kithonia and at the 25-1 freely available, she looks a decent early each-way bet to maintain Cecil's love affair with the Oaks.

Recommended Bet (scale 1-5 points):

The Oaks (Epsom - 4th June 2010)

2pts each way KITHONIA (25-1 general)





Already Advised:

Leopardstown Hurdle (Leopardstown 10th January 2010)


2pts each way SMOKING ACES (14-1 general) Might be offArkle Trophy (Cheltenham 16th March 2010)


2pts win MEDERMIT (20-1 general) Cheltanham Gold Cup 2010

5pts win COOLDINE (12-1 Stan James, William Hill, Victor Chandler)