HC Quarter Final Predictions.

flyingoutside

so we're half way through the group stages of the heiniken cup any predictions for the final 8?

I cant find the proper rules but I would guess
Biarritz
Clermont
Leicester
Ulster
Stade
tolouse
Leinster
London Irish

flyingoutside

sorry yeah its the 6 who finish top of each group and the two best runners-up into the quaters

Here's the link for the groups as they stand if any want it
http://www.ercrugby.com/eng/34_63.php

Chucky the tree

Markus Flabby Snobbery wrote: »

I cant find the proper rules but I would guess
Biarritz
Clermont
Leicester
Ulster
Stade
tolouse
Leinster
London Irish

Replace Ulster with Munster and you're probably right. You have no group winner from Pool 1 and 3 runners up.

Elbows

As it stands it would be:

Biarritz V Leinster
Ospreys V Clermont
Munster V Stade F
London Irish V Toulouse

Do think this will be the 8, but I'm sure order will be different by January

Elbows

Elbows wrote: »

As it stands it would be:

Biarritz V Leinster
Ospreys V Clermont
Munster V Stade F
London Irish V Toulouse

Do think this will be the 8, but I'm sure order will be different by January

Leinster
Clermont
Stade
London irish

chupacabra

Write off munster at your peril

sock puppet

Munster
Biarritz
Clermont
Stade
Toulous
Leinster
Ospreys
London Irish

Those are my predictions. Though maybe I'm being a bit hopeful that Leinster will win in Reading

Podge_irl

Elbows wrote: »

As it stands it would be:

Biarritz V Leinster
Ospreys V Clermont
Munster V Stade F
London Irish V Toulouse

Do think this will be the 8, but I'm sure order will be different by January

Ulster are ahead of Stade at the moment (or at least should be, last time I checked it was wrong on the ERC site).

I genuinely have no idea who the final qualifiers are going to be, which I think is pretty awesome. There are still three teams in it in 5 seperate groups. Only Biarritz seem assured of qualification.

thomond2006

Group Winners:
Munster
Biarritz
Clermont
Ulster
Toulouse
London Irish

Runners Up:
Ospreys
Leinster

[Jackass]

thomond2006 wrote: »

Group Winners:
Munster
Biarritz
Clermont
Ulster
Toulouse
London Irish

Runners Up:
Ospreys
Leinster

I'd take that.

danthefan

I normally would expect Munster to get through basically anything but this year I'm just not sure. Their aura was shattered in the SF last season imo, they don't look anything like the team they've been in the past, and Northampton will believe they can win in TP. I can't see them getting anything from this weekend and I'm not even sure they'll get the BP out in Treviso.

thomond2006

The aura has been shattered. In that sense, Leinster have become the new Munster.

Although Munster are playing poorly and areas of their game aren't functioning, they crucially retain their appetite. Against both Perpignan and Northampton, they "refused to lose". That appetite and self-belief will get them far in this competition but on its own will not be enough to win the competition.

I'd still expect them to beat any opposition in a home QF.

Munster vs Leinster at Thomond would be sweet.

danthefan

thomond2006 wrote: »

The aura has been shattered. In that sense, Leinster have become the new Munster.

Although Munster are playing poorly and areas of their game aren't functioning, they crucially retain their appetite. Against both Perpignan and Northampton, they "refused to lose". That appetite and self-belief will get them far in this competition but on its own will not be enough to win the competition.

I'd still expect them to beat any opposition in a home QF.

Munster vs Leinster at Thomond would be sweet.

I reckon the IRFU could step in and move it to Croke Park again if that happened, there would just be too much money to be made.

As far as I can see it's basically impossible though, if Leinster beat LI they'll have a home QF and if they get through as 2nd place qualifiers Munster would have win their remaining 3 games to draw Leinster which is also highly unlikely.

Anyway Munster can't win the HEC playing as they're playing imo, conceded 8 tries already in 3 games the HEC. To put things in perspective Leinster conceded 5 tries in the entire competition last season.

Munster can defo win it.Leinster were written off at this time last year and they won it.

Albeit they didnt concede try's like Munster are,if they can get back into the groove they are a force for sure and will be at the business end.

Stick_man

I dont understand people writing off Munster, yes they are playing poorly and have problems in the front row and in the centre yet still turned over the french champions last week. Wouldnt be in the least bit suprised if they won on Sunday.

danthefan

Markus Flabby Snobbery wrote: »

Munster can defo win it.Leinster were written off at this time last year and they won it.

Albeit they didnt concede try's like Munster are,if they can get back into the groove they are a force for sure and will be at the business end.

What are you talking about? :rolleyes:

Leinster had 3 wins out of 3 including try BPs against Wasps and Embra this time last year.

thomond2006

danthefan wrote: »

What are you talking about? :rolleyes:

Leinster had 3 wins out of 3 including try BPs against Wasps and Embra this time last year.

They were written off dan even with those results. Everyone was waiting for Leinster to mess up.

They subsequently lost to Castres away, Wasps away and then couldn't score a try against Edinburgh 2nds so all the cynics were vindicated again.

Their backline play resembled Munster's.

Nilther

Anybody who's writing off Munster might find themselves very wrong come the end of the groups. Inreality Munster are were they like to be, up against the wall with know one believing in them. The whole Irish addiction to being the under dog lives strongly with Munster.

jackreds

I dont think Munster can win the hc this year and may struggle to get out of group.
I predict:

Northampton
Biarritz
Clermont
Leicester
Stade Francais
Toulouse
Leinster
London Irish

Podge_irl

Stick_man wrote: »

I dont understand people writing off Munster, yes they are playing poorly and have problems in the front row and in the centre yet still turned over the french champions last week. Wouldnt be in the least bit suprised if they won on Sunday.

At home, by one point (and outscored 3 tries to none), against the French champions missing their first 6 backrowers. I simply can't see them winning on Sunday - it will be a massive shock if they do imo.

The comparisons to Leinster are massively missing the defensive point made by Dan. Leinster conceded three tries in the entire group stages last year. Their defence is what got them through the Harlequins game. It was never anything less than superb last year. Munster, on the other hand, don't have anything going particularly well for them.

dan719

Podge_irl wrote: »

At home, by one point (and outscored 3 tries to none), against the French champions missing their first 6 backrowers. I simply can't see them winning on Sunday - it will be a massive shock if they do imo.

The comparisons to Leinster are massively missing the defensive point made by Dan. Leinster conceded three tries in the entire group stages last year. Their defence is what got them through the Harlequins game. It was never anything less than superb last year. Munster, on the other hand, don't have anything going particularly well for them.

Except one thing, they are Munster. What you describe as a negative, can also be seen as a positive. Concede three tries, score none, still get a win. No team, other then Munster, would do that, play terribly and still get a win.

Munster have players, who can and do step up to the plate on the big occasions. ROG, POC, Quinlan etc are players who will drag a team over the finish line. It won't be pretty, and I am pretty sure most Munster fans are likely to be charged excessively high premiums for life assurance and health insurance due to high blood pressure, but it will work.

Munster have a winning mentality. That counts for a lot. The France monkey is long off our backs. You might consider it a shock, I reckon it will simply be a team responding to critics.

Podge_irl

dan719 wrote: »

Except one thing, they are Munster. What you describe as a negative, can also be seen as a positive. Concede three tries, score none, still get a win. No team, other then Munster, would do that, play terribly and still get a win.

Munster have players, who can and do step up to the plate on the big occasions. ROG, POC, Quinlan etc are players who will drag a team over the finish line. It won't be pretty, and I am pretty sure most Munster fans are likely to be charged excessively high premiums for life assurance and health insurance due to high blood pressure, but it will work.

Munster have a winning mentality. That counts for a lot. The France monkey is long off our backs. You might consider it a shock, I reckon it will simply be a team responding to critics.

I'm sorry, I have a lot of respect for Munster and what they have achieved, but there comes a point where sheer determination and force of will simply won't cut it anymore. Quinlan simply isn't the player he used to be anymore and ROG is having problems as well. I don't see how anyone could expect them to win next week (which is not to say they definitely won't, but I consider it very unlikely). Claiming that Munster are just winning ugly is completely glossing over the problems.

Munster may have a winning mentality, but they scraped through the pool stages last year playing a lot better then now before ultimately coming up very, very short in the semi final. They don't seem to have corrected the problems with their forwards securing quick ball.

I've been waiting for Munster to "respond to their critics" for most of the season now. I don't consider a damn close win over Perpignan to be that. They're in serious danger of missing the QF for the first time ever (and would definitely be in trouble if not for Perpignan's massive brain fart in Italy).

danthefan

thomond2006 wrote: »

They were written off dan even with those results. Everyone was waiting for Leinster to mess up.

They subsequently lost to Castres away, Wasps away and then couldn't score a try against Edinburgh 2nds so all the cynics were vindicated again.

Their backline play resembled Munster's.

Who had Leinster written off at this stage last season? You and Steve_o are completely wrong, Leinster were top of the pool by far and coasting after round 3, only an idiot would have written them off. As for cynics being vindicated? What? I can remember a piece by Francis after the Castres game which said Leinster couldn't possibly get out of the group after the loss. In what way was that article vindicated, considering Leinster went and won the HEC?

After Castres question marks were certainly raised. After the Wasps game we still weren't out of it at all, anyone with a brain could see Leinster could still get out of the group.

I've seen it a load of times now, people trying to compare Munster this season to Leinster last season, but it's just not the same situation. Leinster at no stage had an awful defence last year. They demolished Wasps and Embra, showing the form they could come up with, something Munster have not done. They did not play brilliantly for the remaining 3 rounds but the foundations were always there, leaking 8 tries in your opening 3 rounds of the HEC are most certainly not the foundations a cup win is built on.

Judgement Day

Podge_irl wrote: »

I'm sorry, I have a lot of respect for Munster and what they have achieved, but there comes a point where sheer determination and force of will simply won't cut it anymore. Quinlan simply isn't the player he used to be anymore and ROG is having problems as well. I don't see how anyone could expect them to win next week (which is not to say they definitely won't, but I consider it very unlikely). Claiming that Munster are just winning ugly is completely glossing over the problems.

Munster may have a winning mentality, but they scraped through the pool stages last year playing a lot better then now before ultimately coming up very, very short in the semi final. They don't seem to have corrected the problems with their forwards securing quick ball.

I've been waiting for Munster to "respond to their critics" for most of the season now. I don't consider a damn close win over Perpignan to be that. They're in serious danger of missing the QF for the first time ever (and would definitely be in trouble if not for Perpignan's massive brain fart in Italy).

I disagree with you, ROG is at last returning to near his old form and was man of the match against Perpignan; Alan Quinlan had one of his best perfomances for a long time and could have been a candidate for man of the match too. What Munster have his team spirit, self belief and with their backs to the wall anything is possible. Yes, there are serious problems in the scrum and the absence of Jerry Flannery doesn't help but we can get by. Our backs haven't performed well of late but there's a thin line between not performing and clicking and it will come - I just pray it's this Sunday!

C'MON MUNSTER!

Webbs

Judgement Day wrote: »

I disagree with you, ROG is at last returning to near his old form and was man of the match against Perpignan; Alan Quinlan had one of his best perfomances for a long time and could have been a candidate for man of the match too. What Munster have his team spirit, self belief and with their backs to the wall anything is possible. Yes, there are serious problems in the scrum and the absence of Jerry Flannery doesn't help but we can get by. Our backs haven't performed well of late but there's a thin line between not performing and clicking and it will come - I just pray it's this Sunday!

C'MON MUNSTER!

What must be worrying though is that ROG had a man of the match performance and yet with the OH getting those plaudits Munster didnt get close to scoring a try or putting sustained pressure on the Perpignan try line.

Munster I think will get out of their pool and that will be as far as they get.

Biarritz really look as if they are up for it this year and I think that it will be a French team that will be the eventual winners esp as the final is in Paris.

Podge_irl

Judgement Day wrote: »

I disagree with you, ROG is at last returning to near his old form and was man of the match against Perpignan; Alan Quinlan had one of his best perfomances for a long time and could have been a candidate for man of the match too.

ROG returned to his old kicking form, which was good to see, but there is more to an out-half's game. It was certainly an improvement from what I saw though and it was encouraging to see. Quinlan is getting inconsistent, which is understandable given his age. He's slowing down and struggles to have an impact in a lot of games imo. I'll be surprised if he manages to put in that kind of performance in back to back games.

Our backs haven't performed well of late but there's a thin line between not performing and clicking and it will come

Munster's problem in that backs isn't that they are trying things that aren't coming off, it's that they aren't trying anything except having their centres bash it up.

Look, Munster are top of their group and clearly have a good chance of going through to the QFs - but there is a very large chance that they'll be third in the group come Sunday. They would be in a lot more trouble had Perpignan not screwed up against Treviso, but thems the breaks and I'd say they'll probably go through at this point (though I imagine the Northampton game might be a tad too close for comfort). This is the closest they've come in the last 4/5 years to me feeling they might not qualify though. I certainly always thought they'd do enough against Sale etc. in their do-or-die matches in the past, but its less clear cut now. I don't think anyone is writing them off from qualifying, but you'd certainly be less sure of it than in previous years. But they are playing poorly and I'd certainly write off their chances of winning the thing at the moment unless there is a drastic improvement. The comparisons with Leinster last year at this stage are beyond facetious.

bleg

All the heavy weights in the competition aren't the most comfortable though are they? I think it's down to the new seeding system. Groups are a lot closer and i'd say there might be a few group winners with two losses

Podge_irl

bleg wrote: »

All the heavy weights in the competition aren't the most comfortable though are they? I think it's down to the new seeding system. Groups are a lot closer and i'd say there might be a few group winners with two losses

Its almost inevitable from the way things are panning out. I don't know whether its the new seedings or what, but I dont recall the groups ever being this close before.

LeeroyJones

If I had to call it,

Pool 1. I can't look beyond Munster, they just know how to win. Last weekend, while for many pointed at many Munster weaknesses, for me it proved they are a team that can play badly against the French Champions and win i.e. a great time (albeit on a rocky patch now!)
To progress: Munster

Pool 2. Biarritz

Pool 3. My favorite pool as a neutral!
I would predict a Leicester win vs Clermont this weekend with Clermont getting a losing bonus. So both would be on 12. Both could get the Try bonus in their respective matches against Viadana and I would probably tip both to just about see off Ospreys(Clermont have them at home and Leicester have them on the final day and I would fancy Leicester in an all-or-nothing showdown!)
To Progress: Clermont and Leicester

Pool 4. Another tight one!
But I do think Stade at home will beat Ulster and Bath. I hope I'm wrong and Ulster can progress but I think their only hope is second spot, which im confident they'll get, and a slice of luck to send them through as a best runner-up. Also Edinburgh are in with a shot, but They'd be fourth favourites for me.
To progress: Stade Francais

Pool 5. I reckon Toulouse and Sale will pull away this weekend and ultimately Toulouse will progress.
To progress: Toulouse

Pool 6. Both Leinster and London Irish to win and pull away this weekend. A bonus for LIrish, another performance like Saturday and a bonus for Leinster too. Then I reckon Leinster will nudge ahead on the penultimate weekend with a bonus pt win over Brive while LIrish secure 4points in Llanelli. Then the Madejski showdown but I would predict that both sides could be effectively qualified by then where a losing bonus for either side would suffice.
To progress:Leinster and London Irish (hopefully in that order!)