IMF wont be coming to Ireland

Liam79

http://www.newstalk.ie/news/no-threat-of-imf-coming-into-ireland/

For all ye're talk !!!

tunney

Liam79 wrote: »

http://www.newstalk.ie/news/no-threat-of-imf-coming-into-ireland/

For all ye're talk !!!

If they won't be coming its because there will be cuts in PS wages, welfare and savage tax increases over the next 4-5 years.

IMF or not - the librarians of Ireland will be buying less books in the future.

Liam79

tunney, you'd only love it too!!!

tunney

Liam79 wrote: »

tunney, you'd only love it too!!!

Love what? The country is fvcked, the entire country is going to suffer for many many years. What is there to love?

Public, private, young, old. Doesn't matter we're in this together and everyone is going to suffer for the folly of the last decade.

marco_polo

It is hard to imagine that even FF would be so stupid as to not make the needed cuts, so she is quite correct.

ei.sdraob

IMF might not be coming here but neither will the EU

boys and girls open your history books to see what happened when New York and recently California asked for aid in order to prevent default

Flamed Diving

What talk?

jmayo

marco_polo wrote: »

It is hard to imagine that even FF would be so stupid as to not make the needed cuts, so she is quite correct.

Never underestimate the depth of their stupidity

After all this is the party of Ned O'Keefe, Joe Jacob, Jackie Healy Rae.
Thye will look after no.1 and that usually isn't for the benefit of you or me I bet.

marco_polo

jmayo wrote: »

Never underestimate the depth of their stupidity

After all this is the party of Ned O'Keefe, Joe Jacob, Jackie Healy Rae.
Thye will look after no.1 and that usually isn't for the benefit of you or me I bet.

No fear of that, but I think that even an ameoba would have got the message by now.

mrgaa1

in relation to the OP - its like the chairmans vote of confidence in the manager

gnxx

Liam79 wrote: »

http://www.newstalk.ie/news/no-threat-of-imf-coming-into-ireland/

For all ye're talk !!!

There isn't a chance is hell of the IMF making any other statement ( unless they go to the same school of press relations as Liam Doran ). I'm amazed that she didn't make a stronger statement that Ireland didn't need support to be honest.

If the IMF made any indication that they were planning to intervene, they would do it the day before they arrived.

Obviously if she had given any indication of future IMF plans for Ireland, the entire financial market in Ireland would be in meltdown before close of business.

thebman

gnxx wrote: »

There isn't a chance is hell of the IMF making any other statement ( unless they go to the same school of press relations as Liam Doran ). I'm amazed that she didn't make a stronger statement that Ireland didn't need support to be honest.

If the IMF made any indication that they were planning to intervene, they would do it the day before they arrived.

Obviously if she had given any indication of future IMF plans for Ireland, the entire financial market in Ireland would be in meltdown before close of business.

^lol this and since we are in the EU we don't need them as long as we stay on the target plan we agreed with them.

We already were bailed out, why are some people too silly to see that. The IMF would only come in if we told the ECB to fook off by not reducing our public expenditure sufficiently.

Flamed Diving

thebman wrote: »

^lol this and since we are in the EU we don't need them as long as we stay on the target plan we agreed with them.

We already were bailed out, why are some people too silly to see that. The IMF would only come in if we told the ECB to fook off by not reducing our public expenditure sufficiently.

You know, I keep hearing these statements, but never see anything to back it up. Am I missing something here?

Dr Galen

you guys do know that the IMF don't fast rope out of a helicopter into Merrion Square, lash across the road and stage a semi bloodless coup don't you?

The IMF provide the cash if asked,by the government. They need to be invited across the threshold, much like a vampire. Also like a vampire, they then proceed to more or less suck the life out of you.

They are not our knight in shining armour. More like the four horsemen of the apocalypse all rolled into one. Anyone expressing happiness about they IMF getting involved or looking for that to happen needs their head examined

hinault

Even if the IMF wanted to come in here, the EU would not tolerate that.

Absurdum

hinault wrote: »

Even if the IMF wanted to come in here, the EU would not tolerate that.

neither would most of the country!

RealityCheck

Absurdum wrote: »

neither would most of the country!

As if a country who seeked IMF help ever had a choice!! Its either that or the country collapses.

hinault

RealityCheck wrote: »

As if a country who seeked IMF help ever had a choice!! Its either that or the country collapses.

That eventuality won't come about.

The EU would not tolerate the IMF in one of it's member countries.
The EU would come in here, if push came to shove.

RealityCheck

hinault wrote: »

That eventuality won't come about.

The EU would not tolerate the IMF in one of it's member countries.
The EU would come in here, if push came to shove.

Thats not the point im making. I made the point that if god forbid we did default and the IMF was our only port of call, we would have no choice but to accept an intervention. We really could'nt tell them where to go.

On the point you make. There have already been interventions in Latvia and Hungary, both of whom are in the EU, granted not in the Eurozone.

batperson

hinault wrote: »

That eventuality won't come about.

The EU would not tolerate the IMF in one of it's member countries.
The EU would come in here, if push came to shove.

That is wishful thinking.

Several media sources covering the story today that the IMF are very concerned about the economic situation of Greece and the very real possibility that they will intervine. The idea that the EU will step in to stop the IMF is nonsense. Ireland is not very far removed from Greece when it comes to finance issues.

"If Greece becomes unable to service its debts, a prospect increasingly discussed, there are serious doubts about the willingness of the European Central Bank to bail it out....That could mean that Greece might have no alternative but to turn to the IMF which is likely to apply severe conditions on any loans it provides"
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/opinion/2009/1204/1224260043105.html

hinault

batperson wrote: »

That is wishful thinking.

Several media sources covering the story today that the IMF are very concerned about the economic situation of Greece and the very real possibility that they will intervine. The idea that the EU will step in to stop the IMF is nonsense. Ireland is not very far removed from Greece when it comes to finance issues.

"If Greece becomes unable to service its debts, a prospect increasingly discussed, there are serious doubts about the willingness of the European Central Bank to bail it out....That could mean that Greece might have no alternative but to turn to the IMF which is likely to apply severe conditions on any loans it provides"
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/opinion/2009/1204/1224260043105.html

I'm guessing here : under EU membership, a member country cannot call in the IMF without the consent of the EU Commission.
By calling in the IMF unilaterally, a member country would break EU rules and would exclude itself from EU membership.

I'm not for one moment suggesting that ECB/EU rescue would not be extremely harsh.
It would be as tough, if not tougher, than the IMF policies.

RealityCheck

hinault wrote: »

I'm guessing here : under EU membership, a member country cannot call in the IMF without the consent of the EU Commission.
By calling in the IMF unilaterally, a member country would break EU rules and would exclude itself from EU membership.

I'm not for one moment suggesting that ECB/EU rescue would not be extremely harsh.
It would be as tough, if not tougher, than the IMF policies.

A mix of both would more likely be on the cards. It has already happened in Latvia.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601095&sid=aCSIEcidixu4

wrote:

The European Commission, the biggest lender in Latvia’s 7.5 billion-euro ($10.5 billion) international stabilization program, has said it will transfer 1.2 billion euros this month to the country. The IMF delayed a 200 million-euro transfer in March and has not paid out a second tranche of the same sum. Both organizations have missions in Latvia now.

seclachi

Even without the IMF or EU intervention were in a lousy situation, the massive amount were loaning is going to be a millstone for years , and long after people have gotten used life without beemers and designer rubbish it will still be there dragging down government coffers.

hinault

Borrowing the amounts that we are for funding day to day expenditure is one problem.

What is lurking in the background is the bank guarantee.
And separate to that, NAMA.

If commercial loans, not in NAMA deteriorate, the tax payer (under the bank guarantee) could carry the can.

And if the NAMA valuations, are wrong eg .NAMA estimate €47b is over -optimistic and the loans are worth less than 47b, then we're screwed for the difference too.

jmayo

RealityCheck wrote: »

...
On the point you make. There have already been interventions in Latvia and Hungary, both of whom are in the EU, granted not in the Eurozone.

That the big difference and what has kept us above water- The Euro.

Where do you think the Punt would be today if we still had it ?
It would be the second choice of toilet paper replacement after the Icelandic
Krona. :rolleyes:

hinault wrote: »

I'm not for one moment suggesting that ECB/EU rescue would not be extremely harsh.
It would be as tough, if not tougher, than the IMF policies.

And that is probably what will happen if things keep going the way they are.

hinault wrote: »

Borrowing the amounts that we are for funding day to day expenditure is one problem.

What is lurking in the background is the bank guarantee.
And separate to that, NAMA.

If commercial loans, not in NAMA deteriorate, the tax payer (under the bank guarantee) could carry the can.

And if the NAMA valuations, are wrong eg .NAMA estimate €47b is over -optimistic and the loans are worth less than 47b, then we're screwed for the difference too.

Shhhhh.
Don't mention the elephant in the room FFS.
Why oh why did they guartantee so much, Anglo in particular :mad:

RealityCheck

Another EU country involved with the IMF.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/feedarticle/8837554

They seem to be having similar issues with reducing their public sector pay bill as us. It could be the way of Ireland if we not only cut spending now. If we ever require a bailout, the cuts the IMF would impose would be disastrous in comparison to what we face now. They are looking for Romania to make 11% of the public sector redundant. If they were to give us a dig out i'd imagine that could be 20%.

ei.sdraob

thanks for link ^

"We have argued, even in front of the IMF, that we do not support collective lay-offs," Constantin Nita, the leftist Social Democrat Party's economic policy adviser and likely cabinet member in a potential Social Democrat-led government told Reuters. "I am for gradual public sector reform."

hahahaha, is he related to Begg and co by any chance

thebman

Flamed Diving wrote: »

You know, I keep hearing these statements, but never see anything to back it up. Am I missing something here?

Read some European newspapers and not Irish news.

Flamed Diving

thebman wrote: »

Read some European newspapers and not Irish news.

I read economic journals, mainly. Don't have much time for newspapers. I would appreciate a link or something. Thanks ever so much for your help so far. Great work.

nesf

Mystik Monkey wrote: »

you guys do know that the IMF don't fast rope out of a helicopter into Merrion Square, lash across the road and stage a semi bloodless coup don't you?

The IMF provide the cash if asked,by the government. They need to be invited across the threshold, much like a vampire. Also like a vampire, they then proceed to more or less suck the life out of you.

They are not our knight in shining armour. More like the four horsemen of the apocalypse all rolled into one. Anyone expressing happiness about they IMF getting involved or looking for that to happen needs their head examined

The IMF of the 90s thankfully seems to have learned from its mistakes. With recent interventions in Ukraine etc they did not dictate the State to implement very severe policy or similar. The Asian Banking crisis was a wake-up call for them in many ways.

Dr Galen

i'd agree that it appears they aren't as bad as they once were alright. The Ukraine intervention is hopefully the way they will continue, but I think it's fair to say if they were to get involved, the cuts being mooted by Cowen et al would pale to what would be required to service the debt levels associated with an IMF loan.

nesf

Mystik Monkey wrote: »

i'd agree that it appears they aren't as bad as they once were alright. The Ukraine intervention is hopefully the way they will continue, but I think it's fair to say if they were to get involved, the cuts being mooted by Cowen et al would pale to what would be required to service the debt levels associated with an IMF loan.

The debt levels associated with an IMF loan weren't ever the problem, it was the conditions attached to those loans. For instance in the Asian Tiger economies that saw IMF intervention, massive cuts in Government spending and large interest rate increases were required, neither of which are needed to service a loan.

Our problem is that we have an enormous deficit in relative terms. Cuts to Government spending will happen regardless of whether the IMF comes in or not simply because in relative terms servicing the debt we build up (i.e. just interest payments) will overwhelm our budget very very quickly if we don't rein in spending.

thebman

Flamed Diving wrote: »

I read economic journals, mainly. Don't have much time for newspapers. I would appreciate a link or something. Thanks ever so much for your help so far. Great work.

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/finance/2009/0919/1224254861624.html

Buying our bonds indirectly is a bail out. Not a free money bailout but a bail out none the less.

Dr Galen

nesf wrote: »

The debt levels associated with an IMF loan weren't ever the problem, it was the conditions attached to those loans. For instance in the Asian Tiger economies that saw IMF intervention, massive cuts in Government spending and large interest rate increases were required, neither of which are needed to service a loan.

Our problem is that we have an enormous deficit in relative terms. Cuts to Government spending will happen regardless of whether the IMF comes in or not simply because in relative terms servicing the debt we build up (i.e. just interest payments) will overwhelm our budget very very quickly if we don't rein in spending.

sorry Nesf, I was basiclly trying to say what you've just said a lot better than I did.

My thoughts were, that if we get into a state that we need to calling the IMF, then the debts and crap that we'll be up to our eyes in, will mean that the present cuts will seem small in comparision. I didn't mean that servicing the IMF side of things would mean this.

Ok I'm confusing myself again, blame the antibiotics .

TLDR : I'm in broad agreement

nesf

thebman wrote: »

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/finance/2009/0919/1224254861624.html

Buying our bonds indirectly is a bail out. Not a free money bailout but a bail out none the less.

Eh, the problem is that you're linking two separate things. That ECB refinancing deal is available to all EU banks. The requirement for reducing our deficit comes from the EU Commission, which is a separate entity. We'd be able to avail of the ECB refinancing so long as we remained part of the Eurozone, i.e. just like Greece has refused to reduce deficits and Greek banks can still avail of this ECB deal.

eoinbn

It would be hugely irresponsible of the IMF to say anything else. The fact that they are even answering questions about whether or not they will have to bail us out is a dire sign.
After the breakdown of talks last week it seems highly likely we are headed for more strikes, and I would assume more intense, in the new year. If the government are first to blink and roll back the cuts in forecoming budget then we are a gaint-step closer to the IMF.

thebman

nesf wrote: »

Eh, the problem is that you're linking two separate things. That ECB refinancing deal is available to all EU banks. The requirement for reducing our deficit comes from the EU Commission, which is a separate entity. We'd be able to avail of the ECB refinancing so long as we remained part of the Eurozone, i.e. just like Greece has refused to reduce deficits and Greek banks can still avail of this ECB deal.

Yes but realistically the ECB refinancing deal is a bailout in itself too for other countries.

I think we are just using it more than others which is why it is a more of a bail out for us than most others.

We have agreed with the EU commission to reduce our debt but I think its misleading to consider both to be completely separate things. If we were really taking the p*** on the ECB's refinancing deal so as not to reduce our expenditure as we agreed we would then the commission would be asking what the story was and the ECB would be reconsidering its refinancing deal.

nesf

thebman wrote: »

Yes but realistically the ECB refinancing deal is a bailout in itself too for other countries.

I think we are just using it more than others which is why it is a more of a bail out for us than most others.

Bailout or an attempt to prevent bank failure? The latter is a something that central banks worldwide are attempting to do.

thebman

nesf wrote: »

Bailout or an attempt to prevent bank failure? The latter is a something that central banks worldwide are attempting to do.

Most countries are trying to prevent bank failure but not all are borrowing 20 billion to get by each year and then more to bail out banks.

Looking at the overall scenario, Ireland is being bailed out by the ECB using the systems available to not have it be seen as a straight bail out.

I'd call it a bailout though and don't really care what other countries are calling it when they do it or what our government or the ECB call what they are doing. If other countries are doing similar to us then I'd say they are being bailed out too as realistically that is what is happening.