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Christmas Millionaire Raffle

  • 29-11-2009 9:10pm
    #1
    supremenovice
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 976 ✭✭✭


    I would advise everyone to buy at least one ticket for this draw, heres why:
    Back in the summer draw, there was 300,000 tickets for sale at €20 each.
    They sold 269,000.
    For the Christmas draw, there are 450,000 tickets for sale at €20 each.
    Why????
    I think this is a huge error by the National Lottery. There is even more people unemployed now than there was back in August, but they expect to sell 180,000 more tickets. You could argue as since its Christmas that people will buy them as a present, but sell another 180,000 is surely too much to ask.
    Either way, when (not if) they dont sell all tickets, they still will have the same number of prizes to give, which means better odds of winning for those who do have a ticket.
    There are 2181 prizes.

    450,000 / 2,181 = 206/1 chance

    Or, in my estimation....

    390,000 / 2,181 = 179/1 chance.

    Not bad really, especially for syndicates.


Comments

  • #2
    Mellor
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 39,902 ✭✭✭✭Mellor


    It's true that the odds get better when they fail to sell all the tickets. however, I don't they improve enough to make this a good bet. They are pretty terrible to begin with ,they probably juist bevose slightly less terrible.

    I also think you are underestimating the christmas present aspect. Keep the 20 in the pocket imo. Feel free to punt for a laugh, or for any other reason, but don't be under the impression its a good bet.

    I wonder how many they would need to be short by in order to make this a good bet.


  • #3
    supremenovice
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 976 ✭✭✭supremenovice


    Mellor wrote: »
    I wonder how many they would need to be short by in order to make this a good bet.


    How about if they sell the same amount as they did for the summer draw -
    269,000/2,181 = 123/1 chance


  • #4
    Mellor
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 39,902 ✭✭✭✭Mellor


    It would still be a bad idea to play. A 123/1 chance means nothing if you don't include the prizevalue.
    Chances are you'll win e100.

    Seriously they take a huge cut on this. They payout 5.2 million, If they sell all the tickets, they'll take in 9million. Anyone can see that they are scooping loads off the top.

    Even if they don't sell them all, they will still sell the 260k tickets need to cover the payout. This means that every ticket they sell after 260k, makes it a worse and worse bet.
    As I said before, play, but rember that you doing it for fun, not money



    And, just so you know, they've sold about 100k tickets so far


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