What will the next bubble be ?

Bullish

Hi all,
I was reading an report on the net http://www.harpers.org/archive/2008/02/0081908

I agree with the general Idea of the article, now this is purely speculative,
What do you think the next bubble will be.

I am leaning towards energy, renewable that is.
Just curious as what others Ideas are.

MrMatisse

.

I think your right on renewable energy. It will be the next bulgarian property type fiasco.

Although the present market is a bit high in my opinion given the global banking system has collapsed.

paddydriver

Property... supply and demand. Look at UK - they had a big property crash in early nineties, and now have another one.

Lexus1976

Bullish wrote: »

Hi all,
I was reading an report on the net http://www.harpers.org/archive/2008/02/0081908

I agree with the general Idea of the article, now this is purely speculative,
What do you think the next bubble will be.

I am leaning towards energy, renewable that is.
Just curious as what others Ideas are.

Answer : Commodities

MrMatisse

Lexus1976 wrote: »

Answer : Commodities

Good point. Gold especially. I have never seen so many we buy gold places set up so quickly. While people are worried and supply is tight there seems to be a little hysteria around it.

Bullish

Gold is in bubble status now... I was more talking about a government fuelled Bubble to creat jobs, The link above discusses the need for a bubble to get people back to work... Its main point is that although a bubble is bad whats worse is no bubble !

ranger4

Gold.

strathspey

ranger4 wrote: »

Gold.

Certainly not when inflation starts creeping up, and that it will, because that is how the Western world will try to deflate their debt to the Asian tiger economies.

ixus

GOld down $60 this morning, back up to 1146 as i rypoe. Everything tanking.

Blackjack

Social Networking tech bubble....

PYRO#1

If renewable energy does form a bubble then how would it end up being burst?
Would a shift to new technology bring this about or drive it on?

Bullish

Good post Pyro,
Renewable IMO would be a sustainable bubble.. Sustainable bubble is a contradiction .... But would it creat any more jobs than it would destroy in the existing fossil fuel sector ?

BendiBus

Bullish wrote: »

Good post Pyro,
Renewable IMO would be a sustainable bubble.. Sustainable bubble is a contradiction .... But would it creat any more jobs than it would destroy in the existing fossil fuel sector ?

It will be like the tech bubble. The underlying industry will be hugely successful, but there will be massive overvaluations and some spectacular failures along the way.

PYRO#1

Ya i see what you guys mean. But the energy sector has growing demands for its services. The world needs more energy. Now very little renewable energy is stand alone so it needs a fossil fuel back up. So you therefore need to keep loads of the existing jobs.
What would cause job losses in the existing sector is greater efficiency and integration. I reckon renewable energy will create jobs especially if generation and distribution is dispersed and localized.
I agree with you bendi about overvaluation.
But alot depends on what options are taken and what we are forced to do by external global events.

MrMatisse

Renewable energy will play a greater role in the future but it will be hyped up and will become overvalued as another poster said.

Bullish

Yep that is the definition of a bubble is it not ?
I am thinking that renewable will be a bubble, But I just wanted to get others opinions on what they think would be the next bubble

And if you are in on the cusp the bigger the bubble the better

pirelli

Online finance services.

pirelli

Bullish wrote: »

Yep that is the definition of a bubble is it not ?
I am thinking that renewable will be a bubble, But I just wanted to get others opinions on what they think would be the next bubble

And if you are in on the cusp the bigger the bubble the better

Renewable energy and electrics cars.

If electric and hybrid cars become the norm and aeroplanes and ships are fueled by gas then oil will drop to levels where renewable energy cannot compete.Oil and possibly gas will fuel energy.

Bullish

Agreed Pirelli unless they increase the Carbon tax, which is already considerable.
America wants to be energy independant....
And the governments pumping the bubble would be so politically correct

This was just a thought

pirelli

Just off topic here Bullish. Did you expect SEED to move so fast and so high.
It was old news about their patent technology.

BendiBus

pirelli wrote: »

Renewable energy and electrics cars.

If electric and hybrid cars become the norm and aeroplanes and ships are fueled by gas then oil will drop to levels where renewable energy cannot compete.Oil and possibly gas will fuel energy.

Oil won't drop below a level that makes it unprofitable. It'll just stay in the ground.

PYRO#1

Energy isnt a real market. OPEC controls the price and carbon taxes and subsidies will keep it inflated so that renewables are a cheaper alternative. But oil is vital to how the world works.

Bullish

SEED was one of the reasons for the original post,
No I didnt expect it to go this high but technically I expect it to go higher..

But I would not play it

Bullish

Could you eloborate on Energy is not a real market Pyro..

PYRO#1

Sorry for being vague.
I meant that the energy market and energy prices are soo unrealistic due to taxes and subsidies and cartels. Prices dont follow demand. If oil demand falls OPEC cuts production to artificially keep the price up. The ESB pays micro generation a premium to generate electricity, Hydro is paid more than wind.
Its a market that can make an investment extremely profitable where under normal market conditions you wouldnt touch it with a barge pole!

Bullish

Without getting nitty gritty Pyro, Is that not true of any market that if demand falls, so does production ( one way or another)

PYRO#1

Yes but with oil its taken past the point of a like for like demand v production cut so that the price is artificially kept high.

Jivin Turkey

We are already consuming more oil than is produced in a day.

Some governments are also committing to hitting rvarious renewable generation targets within the a range of years (202020 etc).

When other governments wake up and see that they can secure their own energy independence through renewables we'll see a bigger uptake also. They can move from being net importers to net exporters.

Bullish

EH, I dont think we are consuming more oil than is produced in a day ... Stock piles are increasing

Hey jivin turkey what are you doin christmas day ... or is that a sore subject