Boards forecast contest for December -- the last hurdle

M.T. Cranium

December 2009
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Greetings, first of all, I will post a thread in mid-December asking for some suggestions about the 2010 forecast competition, so that we can perhaps welcome some new participants as well, or perhaps welcome back some departed ones.

But to close out the annual competition, I have the following five questions for you, the first three are the usual ones ...

(1) Mean temp (C) in Ireland from average of highest and lowest station means

(2) Highest temp (C) at any reporting station

(3) Lowest temp (C) at any reporting station

(4) Max and min temps at Dublin (A) for 25 December

(5) Max wind gust (knots) anywhere in Ireland on the 16th.

(Bonus - 3 pts) ... will anyone report falling snow in Ireland on 24th or 25th?
... we will check both official reports, and Boards weather reports (excluding obvious hoaxes).

Good luck with these, and enter by the end of the day Tuesday 1st December without penalty, usual penalty applies to entries on 2nd, then the door is locked ( bah humbug ).

Strasser

OK, I’ll start the ball rolling for December, waiting for the FI charts at the last minute doesn’t really help. These winter months are really difficult, the temptation to hopecast is strong as I did last winter, thinking of hale winters and such like. This year I’ll be more measured.
A word of thanks to all involved in the competition, especially to MT Cranium, its good fun. I have no real suggestions for next year, it works well at present and I’m happy with the format. The stats for a particular day are a bit of a lottery, the monthly averages are as well I know but not quiet to the same extent so I’d go for more averages. November percentage of normal rainfall would have been really interesting. Number of days with snow lying at 9am at some midland station is also a question I’d include more often.

On to my predictions

(1) Mean temp (C) in Ireland from average of highest and lowest station means
5.6

(2) Highest temp (C) at any reporting station
12.0

(3) Lowest temp (C) at any reporting station
-5.5

(4) Max and min temps at Dublin (A) for 25 December
+8.5 & +3.8

(5) Max wind gust (knots) anywhere in Ireland on the 16th.
35

(Bonus - 3 pts) ... will anyone report falling snow in Ireland on 24th or 25th?
NO (but I hope I’m wrong!)

M.T. Cranium

(1) 5.1 C

(2) 13.3 C

(3) -7.6 C

(4) 4.4, -2.2 C

(5) 62 knots

(6) yes

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(will discuss the 2010 contest in a separate thread, thanks for input here and by PM)

kerry1960

Never tried one before but here goes .

1 : 4.8c .
2 : 13.6c.
3 : -5.2c.
4 : +7.4c / +1c.
5 : 25 kts.
6: no .
make sure the engraver spells my name correctly please .

(1) 5.2 C

(2) 13.5 C

(3) -7.2 C

(4) 5.1, -1.7 C

(5) 57 knots

(6) yes

jd

5.3

13.2

-6.4

5.3, -1.6

42

YES

dasa29

(1) 5

(2) 12.5

(3) -5

(4) +2 & -2

(5) 45

(Bonus - 3 pts) yes:D

Joe Public

(1) 6.1 C

(2) 13.4 C

(3) -4.6 C

(4) 8.2 C, 3 C

(5) 41 knots

(6) No

kindredspirit

1) 5.8°C

2) 14.0°C

3) -5.0°C

4) 8.0°C & -1.0°C

5) 25 knots.

Bonus. Maybe. (is that allowed? ) OK then; my answer: No.

M.T. Cranium

Welcome Kerry1960, and just a reminder that entries can be submitted or edited up to 2359h "today" (meaning Tuesday 1st, not quite there yet). Entries submitted on the 2nd are subject to penalty, then it's closed at midnight.

DOCARCH

(1) Mean temp (C) in Ireland from average of highest and lowest station means. 6.9c

(2) Highest temp (C) at any reporting station. 12.8c

(3) Lowest temp (C) at any reporting station. -4.1c

(4) Max and min temps at Dublin (A) for 25 December. 9.2c/3.4c

(5) Max wind gust (knots) anywhere in Ireland on the 16th. 54 knots

Bonus : No

200motels

(1) Mean temp (C) in Ireland from average of highest and lowest station means. 6.8C

(2) Highest temp (C) at any reporting station. 12.7C
(3) Lowest temp (C) at any reporting station. -4.0C
(4) Max and min temps at Dublin (A) for 25 December. 5.6C/-2.4C
(5) Max wind gust (knots) anywhere in Ireland on the 16th. 43KNOTS
Bonus : YES

nilhg

(1) Mean temp (C) in Ireland from average of highest and lowest station means 5.2 C

(2) Highest temp (C) at any reporting station 14.8 C

(3) Lowest temp (C) at any reporting station -5.4 C

(4) Max and min temps at Dublin (A) for 25 December 11 C, 3.3 C

(5) Max wind gust (knots) anywhere in Ireland on the 16th. 16 Kts

(Bonus - 3 pts) ... will anyone report falling snow in Ireland on 24th or 25th?
... we will check both official reports, and Boards weather reports (excluding obvious hoaxes). No

paddybar

another first timer
1. 9.5 c
2. 14 c
3. -5 c
4. min 3c max 8 c
5. 70 knts
6.no snow

Danno

Last orders I hear?

(1) Mean temp (C) in Ireland from average of highest and lowest station means 5.7c

(2) Highest temp (C) at any reporting station 12.9c

(3) Lowest temp (C) at any reporting station -11.2c

(4) Max and min temps at Dublin (A) for 25 December 5.4c and -3.6c

(5) Max wind gust (knots) anywhere in Ireland on the 16th. 37

(Bonus - 3 pts) ... will anyone report falling snow in Ireland on 24th or 25th?
... we will check both official reports, and Boards weather reports (excluding obvious hoaxes). YES!!!

Good luck with these, and enter by the end of the day Tuesday 1st December without penalty, usual penalty applies to entries on 2nd, then the door is locked ( bah humbug ).

nacho libre

(1)Mean temp (C) in Ireland from average of highest and lowest station means 5.3

(2) Highest temp (C) at any reporting station 13.2

(3) Lowest temp (C) at any reporting station -3.8

(4) Max and min temps at Dublin (A) for 25 December 9.6 and 2.2

(5) Max wind gust (knots) anywhere in Ireland on the 16th. 45

(Bonus - 3 pts) ... will anyone report falling snow in Ireland on 24th or 25th? no:(

M.T. Cranium

Max wind gust on the 16th was a miserly 35 knots at Belmullet. Congrats to anyone who guessed low.

M.T. Cranium

The Dublin max and min on the 25th ... 4.5 C and -6.6 C. One of the closer guesses was from Danno, several others were fairly close. Quite a few people seemed to sense that it would run from below to above freezing. I will score this one in rank order, I think.

The bonus question answer (any snow reports 24th or 25th?) was technically yes, although many had everything but snow. There were reports of snow from Donegal, Mayo, Knock and I even saw "recent snow" at Cork 00z 24th. If that had been the only one I would have had another dodgy snow question dilemma. Now if I had asked will it be raining at -5 C how many would have said yes?

Not sure if it's the coldest for the month but it has reached -10.0 at Mullingar recently (-11 at Castlederg NI and some reader comments from various places suggest that it may have been colder still).

I would imagine that the monthly average is drifting down towards 4 C the way we calculate it, because even Valentia and Belmullet have been running quite cold in the past week. Whatever it is today, it probably won't add anything and may slip down a bit further.

jd

How did this end up?

M.T. Cranium

Hello, the delay in final month scoring is due to the fact that the weather stats were just posted today, and with me being eight hours behind your time, I am just now getting at it ... the final figures are as follows:

Mean temp for the month (using the 2009 method) 4.1 C which was the average of 5.9 at Valentia and 2.3 at three stations. I should note in passing that using the 2010 method, this 4.1 would be lower, probably in the vicinity of 3.3.

Max for the month was 13.1 at Dublin on the 8th.

Min for the month was -10.0 at Mullingar on the 25th.

As already noted, the bonus question answers were known already (see above).

I will be scoring the month for a while and posting the results on the annual scoring thread around 7 p.m. (I hope).