Flooding disaster - could it have been predicted?

samf

Took a stroll down western road last night and it was so sad seeing all the businesses that have "closed until further notice" signs on the front, including one cafe with a skip outside thats practically thrown everything into the skip. One other cafe had a sign blaming cork county council for the fact that it was closed and it made me think, there should be a full investigation into the flooding and a lot of people should be questioning their positions after it.

Surely with the forecasting technology we have these days the heavy rain on thursday night, as well as the over capacity at the dam and high tide on Friday morning could have been predicted in advance? Also, why did no one think of the possibility of flooding when designing the WGB? Why was all the artwork in the glucksman gallery left in the basement? Why werent sandbags deployed on thursday night? Why did all the doors in Victoria Mills automatically lock when the power went off from the flooding? Why didnt any low lying building seem to have procedures in place for something like this happening? Why didnt all the student accomodations have insurance to cover students belongings in the case of such an event?

This isnt a third world country, and flooding is probably the only natural disaster that will ever cause widespread damage in Ireland so the fact that cork was so unprepared for this just isnt good enough in my opinion.

Pi^2

Sometimes it takes a catastrophe like this to make people prepare for the next one.

No one would have willingly made the appropriate investments before this happened because no one would have believed the scale of the destruction.

This isnt a third world country, and flooding is probably the only natural disaster that will ever cause widespread damage in Ireland so the fact that cork was so unprepared for this just isnt good enough in my opinion.

Cork has been unprepared for so long and its worked out alright before this. I wouldn't be surprised if they didn't do much to prepare for the next one. Afterall cork city is an island between 2 rivers. The west of the city resides on a flood plain. That can't be changed.

There were flood warnings issued before it happened. Did anyone take them seriously? Did anyone request sand bags?

And at the end of the day, the tropical weather which moved over Ireland and caused this was very unpredictable and gave very little warning. Even with the best forecasting in the universe your never going to get more than a day or twos notice with an event like this.

Celtise

samf wrote: »

Why did all the doors in Victoria Mills automatically lock when the power went off from the flooding?

I was there when the power went off, outside in fact watching the water rise at an unbelievable rate in the car park and the blocks doors worked as normal running on the emergency power. Our apt doors worked as normal the entire time but as the emergency power went the block doors were left open.

ALincoln

Guys, these turned out to be the worst floods in 800 years.

Predict that.

samf

Pi^2 wrote: »

There were flood warnings issued before it happened. Did anyone take them seriously? Did anyone request sand bags?

Thats my point though, met eireann issue flood warnings all the time and theyre never this bad, i find it hard to believe that someone somewhere didnt know that once all that water was released from the dam the river would rise well above its banks, it should have been all over the radio and internet the day before that it was hugely likely that water levels were going to rise to unprecedented levels and the army should have been out delivering sandbags then, not on friday when it was too late.

samf

From PROC -

When the clean up is finished investigations must focus on the apparent lack of communication between those at the Inniscarra dam and authorities in the city when a decision was made to dump over 535 tonnes of water per second into the Lee thus swamping the city late on Thursday night. The ESB say they contacted city and county councils to warn them. The councils are strangely saying nothing for now.

Many books at the County Library as well as documents in the basement of County Hall have been destroyed at huge expense.

Workers in the latter were told to go home at 3.30pm last Thursday but why wasn't a small team of volunteers from the large staff assembled to lug valuable property from the lower levels to higher levels and to help out at the library nearby?

Many workers would have been happy to put their shoulders to the wheel in a time of need and show that they are dedicated to the public service.

Not anticipating that the flood waters would rise so high is not a good enough excuse as the tax payer now picks up the tab for some avoidable loss. This apparent own-goal seems bafflingly basic for well remunerated management who were, incidentally, due to go on strike on Tuesday.

moceri

Yes flooding was common but never on the scale of last Friday. Most of the worst flooding historically occured during Spring Tides and flooding was confined to the low lying Parts of the City: Grand Parade, The South Mall and Oliver Plunkett Street. On this occasion the Western end of the city was the worst affected.

I still think the ESB have some questions to answer. Although there is severe flooding on the River Shannon at the moment, the ESB are being very cautious about the release at Parteen Weir, as they do not want a repeat of what happenend to Cork occuring in Limerick city.

I really would like to challenge the excuse that "the Inniscarra Dam was close to bursting" on the basis of "'cos an ESB spokesman said so". Let's have the data evaluated by an independent third party.

The EU water framwork directive was passed in 2000. In the meantime the South Western River Basin District Management Plan is still only at draft and consultation stage. I dread to think of how much has been spent to date on "Consultancy Fees".

Someone needs to get off their ass and drive this forward. Management of our Public Rivers needs to be restored to a competent Public body. It seems the ESB are running the show at the moment and Nero (Cowan) fiddles whilst Rome burns.

http://www.swrbd.ie/index.htm

Nova_era

ALincoln wrote: »

worst floods in 800 years.

Bring back the English, they knew how to prevent floods. *joke*


Nobody could have predicted how bad the floods were, but I think that people are in general very slow to act until something has affected them. I was strolling down South Mall the evening before the floods happened, and as a result of the warnings, many places had placed sandbags in front of their doors. Others hadn't, so tough luck to them?

The decision to release so much water from the dam is certainly one which should be investigated, although without a few weeks worth of notice, I don't see how it would have made much difference.

Looking at the buildings on Western Road (Art McBrides etc), I don't see how any amount of warning or sandbags would have saved them, it would have taken a huge wall outside their doors to stop flood damage in their location.

Aodan83

Doubt the scale of the flood could have been predicted. On the other hand, heavy rainfall was predicted, the ESB were monitoring the water levels in Inniscarra. They could probably have guessed they were going to have to let out a lot of water. Most of the city, esp. all the parts that were floooded, are built on a flood plain. A serious flood should have been predicted. Whoever decided an underground car park in the Kingsley was a good idea is a tool. The hotel is right next to the river, it was quite obviously a bad idea.

ALincoln

An initially slow reaction has nothing to do with being able or unable to predict this flood. Moreover, even if incredibly dire weather was consistently forecast, how could anybody ever be 100% sure that the worst flooding in nearly a century was going to occur? As an Irish person Samf, surely you should be acutely aware that the weather is notoriously capricious.

To be honest, I don't think that now is exactly the time for casting culpability around; it's time to try and help the hundreds of displaced students and the college as a whole to salvage something from the debris. UCC should be seeking to foster a sort of community spirit, not indulge in the blame game.

samf

I was lucky enough not to be affected by the flood, and I did spend all day friday helping to cater for the evacuated students and yes i totally agree that UCC should be seeking to foster a sort of community spirit.

That said though if I were a business owner in cork that was posting a closed until further notice poster on my door i'd be extremely annoyed that I hadnt been informed of the scale of what was coming by the city council. Im not suggesting we could have predicted how much rainfall were to fall that night but it seems to me the major reason for the floods was the release of water from the dam, and i find it hard to believe that no one knew the release would rise the rivers levels so high. I just think better communication between those in the dam and the city council and the business owners and home owners beside the lee could have been the difference between a lot of unnecessary damage and heartache. I think the extent of the widespread damage was avoidable as simply no one was prepared.

Pi^2

it seems to me the major reason for the floods was the release of water from the dam, and i find it hard to believe that no one knew the release would rise the rivers levels so high

The major reason for the floods was the rain.

Because the rain had the biggest influence on the amount of water behind the dam. Water is constantly released from the dam - It rained heavily so they had to release more. Simple as.

Look at all the other places around Ireland and England that have flooded, places with no dam operating on their rivers.

And when you have such unprecedented levels of rain, don't forget the ESB had very little time to react. Even if they had started to release water as soon as the meteorologists said the rain was coming there would have still been floods, and maybe they would have been worse... e.g. a slower release of water over a longer period of time may have simply resulted in water levels rising slowly over a period of days and hence a longer flood.

I really would like to challenge the excuse that "the Inniscarra Dam was close to bursting" on the basis of "'cos an ESB spokesman said so". Let's have the data evaluated by an independent third party.

I don't know much about dams. But they are always fairly full. They are kept this way to keep a constant pressure stream of water turning the turbines for electricity generation. A damn bursting doesn't just mean the whole thing shatters...

...It means that water breaches the dam. That could mean pouring over the top (very bad, as this could have flooded the adjoining ESB station. Also, this causes erosion of the uppermost part of the damn and can easily start breaking off bits of the dam from the top down, or forcing through the sluice gates (perhaps damaging them) rendering the control of them impossible.

In conclusion, I'm sure there may have been a slightly more optimal flood. A couple more hours proper warning, and a little more time for sandbagging, but overall roughly the same amount of water and overall similar devastation.

Conversely, the flood could have been significantly worse. The water levels could have been slightly higher and could have remained as such for a much longer period of time. So while the flood was, and indeed is terrible, it could have been worse and I would like to thank the ESB for handling the situation the way they did and for all the times that they have averted danger ubenknownst to us.

Thank you Electricity Supply Board.