X-Factor elimination, unbeatable odds?

mikesligo

I was taking a look at paddy powers odds for the next xfactor elimination, I think I must be reading the odds wrong as I've come up with this.

Next elimination

lloyd daniels, 1.53 to 1, wager 22, profit ~33, inc original wager being returned ~55

Jedward, 3.25 to 1, wager 15, profit 48.75, inc original wager being returned 63.75

Danyl Johnson, 6.5 to 1, wager 8, profit 52, inc original wager being returned 60

Olly Murs, 34 to 1, wager 2, profit 68, inc original wager being returned 70

Stacey Solomon, same as Olly Murs

Joe McElderry, 51 to 1, wager 1, profit 51, inc original wager being returned 52

Total wagers: 50 euro
Minimum win inc bet being returned: 52 euro
Maximum win inc bet being returned: 70 euro

The bookies never make mistakes like that, just wondering if anyone can point out where I'm going wrong.

Chonaic

mikesligo wrote: »

I was taking a look at paddy powers odds for the next xfactor elimination, I think I must be reading the odds wrong as I've come up with this.

Next elimination

lloyd daniels, 1.53 to 1, wager 22, profit ~33, inc original wager being returned ~55

Jedward, 3.25 to 1, wager 15, profit 48.75, inc original wager being returned 63.75

Danyl Johnson, 6.5 to 1, wager 8, profit 52, inc original wager being returned 60

Olly Murs, 34 to 1, wager 2, profit 68, inc original wager being returned 70

Stacey Solomon, same as Olly Murs

Joe McElderry, 51 to 1, wager 1, profit 51, inc original wager being returned 52

Total wagers: 50 euro
Minimum win inc bet being returned: 52 euro
Maximum win inc bet being returned: 70 euro

The bookies never make mistakes like that, just wondering if anyone can point out where I'm going wrong.

The bit in red there, you get 33 back but only profit 11.

All your prices are adding 1. You have them in decimal format.

They are .53333 to 1, 2.25 to 1, 5.5 to 1 etc.

or in decimal, which includes your stake: 1.53, 3.25, 6.5 etc.

or in fractions: 8/15, 9/4, 11/2

d-gal

mikesligo wrote: »

I was taking a look at paddy powers odds for the next xfactor elimination, I think I must be reading the odds wrong as I've come up with this.

Next elimination

lloyd daniels, 1.53 to 1, wager 22, profit ~33, inc original wager being returned ~55

Jedward, 3.25 to 1, wager 15, profit 48.75, inc original wager being returned 63.75

Danyl Johnson, 6.5 to 1, wager 8, profit 52, inc original wager being returned 60

Olly Murs, 34 to 1, wager 2, profit 68, inc original wager being returned 70

Stacey Solomon, same as Olly Murs

Joe McElderry, 51 to 1, wager 1, profit 51, inc original wager being returned 52

Total wagers: 50 euro
Minimum win inc bet being returned: 52 euro
Maximum win inc bet being returned: 70 euro

The bookies never make mistakes like that, just wondering if anyone can point out where I'm going wrong.

Profit for Llyod would be 11euro, not 33euro!

mikesligo

Your comments are exactly what I had thought too, so I contacted paddy power before to make sure I was reading the odds right. After viewing this thread I contacted them again,

Welcome to SportsBook Live Help
Stephanie has joined this session!
Connected with Stephanie
Welcome to Live Help. My name is Stephanie. How can I help you?
Hello stephanie, I was talking to you earlier, I asked you that if I bet 100 on lloyd daniels at 1.53 odds, would I get 153 back or 253, could you clarify that again please?
You get the stake returned
as well as the winnings
So 253?
yes
Could you take a look at this thread please
http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2055747069
My thread
The link wont work, sorry?
Odd, try http://pastebin.com/m1066a99b please
It just says page cannot be found?
I don't know why, it might be a problem with your internet connection, ok it boils down to, if I bet 22 on lloyd daniels at 1.53 and the bet came through, I would make a profit of roughly 33, and my total returned would be about 55
yes]

(I then pasted my post)

Next elimination

lloyd daniels, 1.53 to 1, wager 22, profit ~33, inc original wager being returned ~55

Jedward, 3.25 to 1, wager 15, profit 48.75, inc original wager being returned 63.75

Danyl Johnson, 6.5 to 1, wager 8, profit 52, inc original wager being returned 60

Olly Murs, 34 to 1, wager 2, profit 68, inc original wager being returned 70

Stacey Solomon, same as Olly Murs

Joe McElderry, 51 to 1, wager 1, profit 51, inc original wager being returned 52

Total wagers: 50 euro
Minimum win inc bet being returned: 52 euro
Maximum win inc bet being returned: 70 euro

yes this looks correct
But that means you can be guaranteed to make money, which can't be correct
By you, I mean, me
The traders have restrictions in place, you would not be able to back every market. There are limitations on novelty bets
Interesting, so I wouldn't be allowed to bet on each bet, even if I spread the bet between a number of people
No
There is a lot more restrictions with novelty betting
Ok, thanks for the information
No problem have a nice evening
Stephanie has left this session!
The session has ended! Session ID: 395323

The paddypower agent thinks that this is correct but restrictions stop you backing everyone, I'm inclined to agree with ye though as there's nothing to stop 6 people working together to make a guaranteed profit.

restingpilgrim

The posters here are right. Paddy power person on the chat as per usual nowadays in a bookmakers have no idea what a book is and how it works. If you bet this you were guaranteed to lose money.The market makers would have been delighted to let you back every runner.

myflipflops

If you still have the chat history, mail in and infrom them that you got the wrong information not once but twice. You're about 99% sure of getting a free bet out of it.

thee glitz

This might help ye.

Devastator

:rolleyes:



If you are going to ask for help on here, then listen to what people answer to YOUR question. There was absolutly no need to contact PP about this.

You are wrong. PP are wrong. The replies on this thread are RIGHT.

If you still want to think that your correct I suggest putting all your savings onto your bet, then when you loose go and get a primary school mathmatics book and read the section about multipling decimals

mikesligo

@ Devastator

If you are going to ask for help on here, then listen to what people answer to YOUR question.

I did, I said I thought PP were wrong and you all were right.

There was absolutly no need to contact PP about this.

Well there was. I contacted them before to check if I was reading the odds right so I wouldn't make a pointless post. I checked again as I couldn't believe that a PP rep could make such a mistake and that one of us must have misunderstood the other.

You are wrong. PP are wrong. The replies on this thread are RIGHT.

Yep, I agree, which is why I said "I'm inclined to agree with ye". Again, when did I say you were wrong, my 1st post basically said I'm wrong, can someone point out where.

If you still want to think that your correct

Read above.

get a primary school mathmatics book and read the section about multipling decimals

Ah in my defense, reading the odds the way the PP rep told me too (multiply the stake and add the money you get back), the math was spot on.

@ Everyone else

Thanks for the advice, of course in the end I didn't make the bet

bernyh

restingpilgrim wrote: »

The posters here are right. Paddy power person on the chat as per usual nowadays in a bookmakers have no idea what a book is and how it works. If you bet this you were guaranteed to lose money.The market makers would have been delighted to let you back every runner.

Actually I would like to differ in this response, as a PP employee, we are trained to understand (shop employee, can't talk for online) how a book works, and should know how to answer a customer as to any question re profits equal to bets..... (not that I'm sticking up for PP by any manner of means shower of ****es!!) just sticking up for my work mates!!