Saturday 14 November 2009

Fineform

It has been a very quiet and disappointing week for me. I usually average between 12-15 bets during the peak of the Flat Season with the Winter months seeing a slightly downward trend to around the 8-10 mark. I have been nowhere near those levels this week with just 3 bets placed. This is not surprising as November is a month fraught with danger. A large element of trust has to be placed on the fitness levels for National Hunt and the All-Weather is in general pretty ordinary fare.

This week's activity has seen Lepido looking a likely winner on the run-in on Tuesday but finding nothing with Just Smudge and Mexican Bob running below their best on Wednesday and Thursday respectively. This once again outlined the glorious uncertainties of racing. The only postive I can gleam from the week so far is that I continue to consistently obtain prices way over their real market value. Make no mistake, this is absolutely essential for anyone wishing to survive in what is a long-term game.

Moving on, tomorrow’s racing has a distinct “kick start” to the season flavour about it with the Paddy Power Gold Cup at Cheltenham. It has traditionally never been an easy one to crack for me but this year’s event appears sub-standard.

I like to look for a young chaser proven over course and distance with not too many chase runs under his belt and the potential to improve through the season. Hailing from last year’s winning stable I feel that Ballyfitz has the qualities needed to win a big handicap this season. A useful hurdler and winner of the Pertemps Final at Cheltenham in 2007/2008, he hit the ground running last season winning 2 races at this track in October and November. His form tended to tail off after that and he ran a shocker behind Carruthers at Ascot on his penultimate start. He was a tired horse by the time he was pulled up behind Cooldine at Cheltenham on his final visit to the racetrack.

There is every chance that the break will have done him good and the rain is just what he needed as it will slow the speedier horses down. As such, Ballyfitz may well force the pace and make this in to a real test. It is also worth mentioning that he has never been on the deck in any of his 6 chase starts but would add that his jumping has not always been foot perfect. Nigel Twiston-Davies has been very bullish this week about his chances and I am sure he will have done plenty of work with him over the schooling of fences at home.

Admittedly, Ballyfitz is not much value now (he was 20-1 on Monday) but the 13-2 currently available is just over the minimum price of 6-1 that I had him marked up for betting purposes.

Venetia Williams may have the answer to the race prior to the big one. Ignore the form figures, as previous Welsh National winner Miko de Beauchene is the best horse in the race. If fully wound up, he has every chance of outstaying these. The 12-1 on offer with Victor Chandler is out of line with the majority of other bookmakers and fully compensates for any concerns about his fitness.

I may also be backing Cerito in the final race on the card at Lingfield tomorrow. He shaped as though another furlong would suit when getting going too late after a slow start on his all-weather debut a fortnight ago. He is handily drawn and relatively unexposed. 8-1 or above will make him a bet.

mike65

Warning - the going at Chelters is now Soft with heavy bits, heavy rain this morning has seen the going change markedly.

Nulty

I dont mean to after time, just retrospecting--

Cant believe a half sister to Ghanaati went off 11/2 in the first race at Lingfield.