Lesley's Choice - 2.30 Southwell Friday

Fineform

Southwell favours prominent horses as it can be very difficult to accelerate and make up ground, added to the fact that there is significant kick back if you are behind other horses. The nature of Fibresand is that it needs to be harrowed quite deep and this can throw up some strong biases with parts of the track quicker than others. The centre of the track is generally quicker than being on the rails in the straight and this will suit front runner Lesley's Choice who is handily drawn in stall 5 for this sprint handicap.

He has an impressive record around this track which reads: 12327. To my mind, Lesley's Choice appeared to be on the decline but showed improved form from the worst of the draw on his penultimate start in a better race than this over 5f. Showing blistering speed in the first-time blinkers towards the nearside of the track, he kept on going to finish clear second best.

Indeed, the only time Lesley's Choice has been out of the places at Southwell was on his last run when racing over 6f. He led until over a furlong out and then started to wander before fading. Again, he had a wide draw that day which clearly didn't help his cause either. So, a return to the minimum trip will suit this speedy type who has yet to prove himself over further.

It is also worth noting that a first-time visor replaces the blinkers tomorrow. This is likely to assist his concentration levels further and should not be viewed as a negative. Trainer Roger Curtis had a Group 3 winner at Saint-Cloud last Sunday and jockey Frankie McDonald rides the track well. He is also familiar with Lesley's Choice having won with him at Kempton.

In addition, Racing Post Ratings have him joint top-rated and second on Topspeed figures. This further strengthens my case that Lesley's Choice will be difficult to peg back.

With all of the above in mind, I was somewhat surprised upon viewing the early evening markets to see Lesley's Choice listed at 10-1 with Bet365. Considering that there are doubts about a number of his opponents ability to handle the surface, I viewed this price as too big. Not surprisingly, these rather generous odds shortened quickly and he is now best priced at 8-1.

Having said that, I still feel there is some value here as I had him marked up as worth an interest at 6-1 or better.

In_tuition

Nice write up - will have a small wager.

Hope it wins for you.

mike65

You might chance a double with Salerosa in the 3.30, 3 C&D wins. She is up in class but will be priced accordingly I imagine. Highly Regal should be favourite.

mike65

Hugh Taylor has this for his pick today.

qc3

As does timeform

Timeform 1-2-3:
1. Lesley's Choice 2. Tartatartufata 3. Feelin Foxy

Timeform View:
Feelin Foxy and Solemn boast recent winning form, but it may pay to concentrate on those proven on the surface, with Lesley's Choice marginally preferred to Tartatartufata.

Kod-box

on the drift out to 5/1 now

Kod-box

won :D

In_tuition

In_tuition wrote: »

Nice write up - will have a small wager.

Hope it wins for you.

Great shout Fineform,

Cheers.

mike65

Southwell C&D counts for a lot.

blindpilot

Cheers Fineform good call. My account has money again. Woo

In_tuition

Weighed in, weighed in

magherakid

yip thanks great shout

Vanbis

Super tip Fineform

ErinGoBrath

Thanking you kindly my man

cson

Fantastic - shows you the benefit of research. Looking forward to more of the same Fineform.

ErinGoBrath

Fineform in fineform

Jimmyboss

mike65 wrote: »

You might chance a double with Salerosa in the 3.30, 3 C&D wins. She is up in class but will be priced accordingly I imagine. Highly Regal should be favourite.

Good call, Mike.....came in @ 4/1:D

mike65

Fecks sake! I didn't do it! (is in a lucky 15 so hopefully not all is lost)

In_tuition

mike65 wrote: »

You might chance a double with Salerosa in the 3.30, 3 C&D wins. She is up in class but will be priced accordingly I imagine. Highly Regal should be favourite.

Good shout too. (but I swerved )

I *never place a horse-racing bet on someone else's judgement, but it's admirable when someone takes the time to write up a knowledgeable analysis on a horse-race and regardless if it wins or loses the person should be commended for making a decent attempt to read the race.

Hugely satisfying knowing that you've cracked a race. I used to do it myself on a daily basis (studying/reading and making analysis), and I am sure Fineform has a huge smirk on his face - and rightly so.

Well done to you both on the winners.

cson

Good shout with Salernosa Mike

Edit: 20/1 SP Double if anyone did it.

allthedoyles

Nice double - I'm sick over that though , wrote the docket last night , but did'nt do the bet after

Töpher

Nicely done lads! Wish I'd gotten on some, but I'm avoiding the horses at the moment!

Trafford Lad

I backed both today so thanks again to Fineform and Mike, a nice start to the weekend and gives me a few quid for Dundalk tomorrow night. I'm heading up, havent looked at the card yet but I presume Pat Smullen will be the man to follow with Johnny M over in the US.

mike65

I hope you have boards.ie mobile so you can send us some inside info!

Trafford Lad

My phone is pretty bog standard, trying here to log on to the net using it and its taking about 20 mins !

Just looking at the Dundalk card and it could be a good night for Smullen, initial thoughts would be for him on Sole Power in the first and Campaign Swing in the last, he also rides a horse that Kevin Ryan has sent over in the 7:30 called Undaunted Affair, so that might be worth keeping an eye on. Funatfuntasia nearly always puts in a good run at Dundalk and I might have an EW bet on him depending on the prices at the time (9pm race)