Hurricane IDA

maquiladora

Just a tropical strom at the moment and not too destructive but has the potential to sweep up into the Gulf of Mexico next week and grow to hurricane strength approaching the US Guf Coast.



000
WTNT41 KNHC 050836
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
400 AM EST THU NOV 05 2009

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF IDA HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS. EARLIER THERE WAS A LARGE EXPANSION OF COLD CLOUD
TOPS IN A SYMMETRIC CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST WHILE IN THE LAST HOUR OR
TWO THE COLDEST TOPS HAVE TAKEN ON A MORE BANDED APPEARANCE. DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 0600 UTC WERE 55 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...
HOWEVER AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE FOUND THAT IDA WAS ALREADY THAT
STRONG YESTERDAY WHEN IT HAD A MUCH LESS IMPRESSIVE SATELLITE
APPEARANCE. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 60 KT
FOR THIS ADVISORY. WHILE THERE IS ONLY A SMALL WINDOW FOR
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING...THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE
COAST OF NICARAGUA REFLECTS THE SMALL CHANCE THAT IDA COULD REACH
HURRICANE STATUS AS IS MAKES LANDFALL. AFTER LANDFALL...WEAKENING
IS FORECAST AS THE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER LAND FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE TRACK FORECAST TAKES IDA BACK OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AFTER 48 HOURS...AND THE INTENSITY
FORECAST SHOWS SOME STRENGTHENING AT 72 HOURS AND BEYOND. HOWEVER
...THERE IS A LARGE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME RANGE...SINCE
IDA MAY NOT SURVIVE LONG ENOUGH TO REACH WATER AGAIN.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/06. THROUGH 48 HOURS THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...AS IDA IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD BETWEEN A WEAK
MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA AND A
WEAK TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. BEYOND THAT TIME...
MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD WITH LARGE DIFFERENCES IN
FORWARD SPEED AS WHATEVER IS LEFT OF IDA INTERACTS WITH A MID-LEVEL
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. GIVEN THE
LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE...A SLOW NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS
SHOWN AT DAYS 3 THROUGH 5. THIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFDL WHICH IS A FAR EASTERN
OUTLIER.

THE BIGGEST IMPACT OF THIS SLOW-MOVING SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES CAUSED BY EXTREMELY
HEAVY RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 05/0900Z 12.8N 83.4W 60 KT
12HR VT 05/1800Z 13.3N 83.9W 45 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 06/0600Z 13.9N 84.3W 35 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 06/1800Z 14.7N 84.6W 30 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 07/0600Z 15.7N 84.8W 25 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 08/0600Z 18.0N 85.5W 35 KT...OVER WATER
96HR VT 09/0600Z 20.0N 86.0W 40 KT
120HR VT 10/0600Z 22.0N 87.0W 45 KT

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/CANGIALOSI

Trogdor

000
WTNT41 KNHC 080900
TCDAT1
HURRICANE IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
300 AM CST SUN NOV 08 2009

DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT SUGGEST THAT THE
INTENSIFICATION OF IDA HAS HALTED...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY. THE
LATEST PRESSURE MEASURED ON A PASS THROUGH THE CENTER WAS 984
MB...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 80 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS SOME STRENGTHENING IN THE SHORT
TERM...AS IDA WILL REMAIN OVER VERY WARM WATERS THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. BEYOND THAT TIME...IDA WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OVER MUCH COOLER
WATERS...BELOW 26C AFTER 48 HOURS...AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL
INCREASE MARKEDLY AS STRONG UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IMPINGES ON IDA. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS IDA UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IN THE 48 TO 72 HOUR
TIME FRAME AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE TROUGH AND A SURFACE FRONT
ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS GRADUAL
WEAKENING FROM 24 TO 48 HOURS...AND MORE RAPID WEAKENING AS IDA
BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NORTHWEST...OR 325/10. THIS IS TO THE
LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...AS THE FLOW AROUND A MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO AND GUATEMALA MAY BE
TUGGING IDA A LITTLE MORE TOWARD THE WEST. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND THE NORTH
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IDA ACCELERATES AHEAD OF THE TROUGH THAT
MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. GIVEN THE MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT OF
THE INITIAL MOTION...THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD
COMPARED TO THE LAST PACKAGE...AND SO HAS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...
WHICH NOW TAKES THE CENTER OF IDA VERY CLOSE TO THE NORTHEASTERN TIP
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TODAY. IDA WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND APPROACH THE EAST-CENTRAL GULF COAST IN 48 TO 72 HOURS.
MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE SHOWS A TURN TOWARD THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST AT DAYS 3 AND 4 AS IDA BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL. HOWEVER...
THERE IS LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE WITH REGARD TO THE ULTIMATE
FATE OF IDA. FOR EXAMPLE...THE ECMWF SHOWS THE EXTRATROPICAL
REMNANTS OF IDA CONTINUING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES...WHILE THE GFS LEAVES THE REMNANTS OF IDA BEHIND A STRONGER
BAROCLINIC LOW THAT FORMS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.
GIVEN THE LARGE RANGE OF POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
SHOWS A SLOW SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION AT DAY 4...AND HAS IDA
DISSIPATING AS IT IS ABSORBED INTO A FRONTAL ZONE BY DAY 5. THERE
IS A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PART OF THE FORECAST
SCENARIO.

THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS REACHING
PORTIONS OF THE U.S. GULF COAST IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER...
SINCE IDA IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION
AROUND THAT TIME...THESE HAZARDS ARE BEING HANDLED BY LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES ALONG THE GULF COAST IN THEIR
PRODUCT SUITE WITH MARINE AND COASTAL FLOOD WATCHES... WARNINGS
...AND ADVISORIES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 08/0900Z 20.5N 85.6W 80 KT
12HR VT 08/1800Z 21.8N 86.7W 85 KT
24HR VT 09/0600Z 24.0N 87.8W 85 KT
36HR VT 09/1800Z 26.7N 88.5W 80 KT
48HR VT 10/0600Z 28.5N 88.2W 65 KT
72HR VT 11/0600Z 29.8N 86.1W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 12/0600Z 28.0N 84.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/KIMBERLAIN

Redsunset

http://www.accuweather.com/video-on-demand.asp?video=49316654001&channel=VBLOG_BASTARDI&title=Could Ida Turn into a Vicious Nor'Easter After It Hits?



looking serious now