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Dutching Log

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  • 24-10-2009 7:02pm
    #1
    mike65
    Closed Accounts Posts: 88,978 ✭✭✭✭


    This is something that I think about every so often but then forget to try properly. I'm going to give it a whirl, hopefully having a log will keep me interested (wins certainly will!)

    I'm going to start by testing out Timeforms view of a selection of races (obviously the sort that Dutching best lends itself too). TF comments and top 3 picks are now integrated into the ATR website cards so it'll be interesting to see how well following them works out.

    For those not familiar with Dutching here is the definiton


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    #2
    mike65
    Closed Accounts Posts: 88,978 ✭✭✭✭mike65


    First race, 20 euro stake

    WINCANTON 1.50

    Jackie Boy 3.75/1
    Ballygulleen 5.00/1
    Absolute Shambles 8.00/1

    Profit for win 14.87 win

    Slog of a race, great jumping wins the day


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    #3
    qc3
    Registered Users Posts: 844 ✭✭✭qc3


    I check out timeform for clues about other tips we get..
    he can get some winners @ good price.
    He had stormy weather to beat kind heart in the 1.35
    kind heart was the value bet in the race and won @12/1.
    maybe worth following.
    Ballygulleen makes some appeal on his chasing bow in the 1.50 WINS @ 4/1


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    #4
    mike65
    Closed Accounts Posts: 88,978 ✭✭✭✭mike65


    WINCANTON 3:00

    Toby Jug 4.5/1
    Templer 5.5/1
    College Ace 10/1

    Profit for win 20.41 win


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    #5
    mike65
    Closed Accounts Posts: 88,978 ✭✭✭✭mike65


    All stakes 20 euro

    KEMPTON 2.10

    Burma Rock 4/1
    Heritage Coast 6/1
    Resplendent Ace 11/1

    Profit for win 19.40 win


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    #6
    mike65
    Closed Accounts Posts: 88,978 ✭✭✭✭mike65


    KEMPTON 3.40

    Leelu 8/1
    Rockfield Lodge 8/1
    La Gifted 11/1

    Profit for win 38.67 loose

    Made a basic boo-boo, the odds meant I could have back 4 even 5, the winner was my 4th choice. :(


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    #7
    mike65
    Closed Accounts Posts: 88,978 ✭✭✭✭mike65


    LINGFIELD 3.45

    Fantasy Fighter 4/1
    Avrilo 5/1
    North South Divide 5/1

    Profit for win 10.77 loose Note to self, do not back all amateur and or Apprentice races.


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    #8
    mike65
    Closed Accounts Posts: 88,978 ✭✭✭✭mike65


    Todays picks.

    CATTERICK 1.30

    SIMPLE JIM 4.3/1
    DUBAI DIVA 13/2
    PARK'S PRODIGY 13/2

    Profit for win 17.02 win
    SOUTHWELL 2.50

    TURN ON THE STYLE 3/1
    STRIKE UP THE BAND 4/1
    ROWE PARK 4/1

    Profit for win 4.00 win (Just!)

    SOUTHWELL 4.20

    Astrolibra 4/1
    Red Expresso 6/1
    Greenbelt 6/1

    Profit for win 14.29 loose


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    #9
    qc3
    Registered Users Posts: 844 ✭✭✭qc3




    He is tipping well lately

    1.25 pun
    Timeform 1-2-3:
    1. The Hurl (IRE) wins @ 11/8 2. Hazeymm (IRE) 3. Gypsy Scholar
    1.30 catt
    Timeform 1-2-3:
    1. Dubai Diva 2. Park's Prodigy wins @ 4/1. 3. Simple Jim (FR)
    1.40 yar
    Timeform 1-2-3:
    1. London Stripe (IRE) wins @ 10/11 2. Mass Rally 2nd @ 7/2(IRE) 3. Swift Return
    FC paid 4.10

    1.50 sout
    Timeform 1-2-3:
    1. Imjin River (IRE) wins @ 5/1 2. We'll Deal Again 2nd @ 9/2 3. Spinning Spirit (IRE) 3rd @ 8/1 FC paid 27.58. T/C paid 178.63

    1.55 pun
    Timeform 1-2-3:
    1. Psycho (IRE) wins @ 2/1 2. Beau Michael     3. Rahan De Marcigny (FR)






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    #10
    mike65
    Closed Accounts Posts: 88,978 ✭✭✭✭mike65


    UTTOXETER 3.25

    DOVEDALE 4.3/1
    DEVON NATIVE 6/1
    COBBLER'S QUEEN 8.5/1
    THEHONOURABLELADY 11/1

    Profit for win 14.25 lose

    UTTOXETER 3.55

    I'M A LEGEND 5/1
    HIGH JACK 4/1
    JUMP JET 9/1

    Profit for win 15.64 win


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    #11
    L'prof
    Registered Users Posts: 11,996 ✭✭✭✭L'prof


    You up on this?


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    #12
    mike65
    Closed Accounts Posts: 88,978 ✭✭✭✭mike65


    About 20 up!

    I better get back to this tomorrow.


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    #13
    mike65
    Closed Accounts Posts: 88,978 ✭✭✭✭mike65


    CATTERICK 3.40

    Cotillion 3.75
    Time Book 4.3
    Bruton Street 6

    Profit for win €10.03 win
    KEMPTON 2.50

    Chosen Son 4/1
    Silver Prelude 5/1
    Come On Buckers 10/1

    Profit for win €16.36 lose Kempton sprint draw bias not being adhered to at all today. :(
    KEMPTON 3.20

    Ask The Oracle 5.5
    Thunderstruck 6.5
    Blue Turk 7.5
    Inside Story 9

    Profit for win €14.48 win
    KEMPTON 4.20

    Hajoum 4/1
    Rulesnregulations 13/2
    Servoca 7/1
    Toms Laughter 9/1

    Profit for win €10.40 lose Draw bias doesn't show again :(


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    #14
    mike65
    Closed Accounts Posts: 88,978 ✭✭✭✭mike65


    About 5 up at the start of play today

    2.45 FFOS LAS

    Dev 4/1
    Francis Du Mesn 4.5/1
    Storm of Applause 6/1

    Profit for win €11.30 win
    MARKET RASEN 2.25

    Civil Servant 5/1
    Mansonn Leda 8/1
    Karky Schultz 10/1
    Laborec 11/1
    Ramvaswani 13/1

    Profit for win €13.74 lose I knew this was a dodgy race winner 20/1, 2nd 33/1, 3rd 25/1

    MARKET RASEN 3.25

    Rosie All Over 4/1
    Teamgeist 4.5/1
    Royal Rosa 5.5/1

    Profit for win €10.58 lose


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    #15
    L'prof
    Registered Users Posts: 11,996 ✭✭✭✭L'prof


    mike65 wrote: »
    About 5 up at the start of play today

    2.45 FFOS LAS

    Dev 4/1
    Francis Du Mesn 4.5/1
    Storm of Applause 6/1

    Profit for win €11.30
    MARKET RASEN 2.25

    Civil Servant 5/1
    Mansonn Leda 8/1
    Karky Schultz 10/1
    Laborec 11/1
    Ramvaswani 13/1

    Profit for win €13.74

    MARKET RASEN 3.25

    Rosie All Over 4/1
    Teamgeist 4.5/1
    Royal Rosa 5.5/1

    Profit for win €10.58

    Are you picking horses purely based on their odds or do you have to fancy them as well?


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    #16
    mike65
    Closed Accounts Posts: 88,978 ✭✭✭✭mike65


    I have no opinion myself really, its a mix of prices, known form and and what timeform says.


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    #17
    L'prof
    Registered Users Posts: 11,996 ✭✭✭✭L'prof


    mike65 wrote: »
    I have no opinion myself really, its a mix of prices, known form and and what timeform says.

    Just wondering, so all selections would be considered to have a decent chance as well as the right price? If none come in, how much do you lose as opposed to winning ~€10 when one of them wins?


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    #18
    mike65
    Closed Accounts Posts: 88,978 ✭✭✭✭mike65


    The whole stake (20 euro per race) btw I'm only using pretend cash right now :)


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    #19
    L'prof
    Registered Users Posts: 11,996 ✭✭✭✭L'prof


    mike65 wrote: »
    The whole stake (20 euro per race) btw I'm only using pretend cash right now :)

    Yeah, that's what I meant (what's the stake)...didn't spot that you said it was €20. I can understand not wanting to use actual money to test out a new system. Interesting all the same!

    EDIT: Do you have a formula you use to quickly calculate how much to bet on who?


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    #20
    mike65
    Closed Accounts Posts: 88,978 ✭✭✭✭mike65


    Handy tool

    http://www.oddschecker.com/betting-tools/dutching-calculator.html


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    #21
    L'prof
    Registered Users Posts: 11,996 ✭✭✭✭L'prof


    mike65 wrote: »
    Handy tool

    http://www.oddschecker.com/betting-tools/dutching-calculator.html

    That is great...I was just working out the odds there by hand.

    EDIT: Have you been using it right? Either you have and have just been posting the wrong odds here or not using the tool properly. I got different returns looking at one of your selections above. You know that 5/1 is 6.0 in decimal form for gambling?


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    #22
    mike65
    Closed Accounts Posts: 88,978 ✭✭✭✭mike65


    I have a silly habit of posting fraction style ie 4/1 but I use decimals on PP and the dutching tool.


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    #23
    L'prof
    Registered Users Posts: 11,996 ✭✭✭✭L'prof


    mike65 wrote: »
    I have a silly habit of posting fraction style ie 4/1 but I use decimals on PP and the dutching tool.

    Ah right, sound. Just wondering.


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