Dutching Log

mike65

This is something that I think about every so often but then forget to try properly. I'm going to give it a whirl, hopefully having a log will keep me interested (wins certainly will!)

I'm going to start by testing out Timeforms view of a selection of races (obviously the sort that Dutching best lends itself too). TF comments and top 3 picks are now integrated into the ATR website cards so it'll be interesting to see how well following them works out.

For those not familiar with Dutching here is the definiton

mike65

First race, 20 euro stake

WINCANTON 1.50

Jackie Boy 3.75/1
Ballygulleen 5.00/1
Absolute Shambles 8.00/1

Profit for win 14.87 win

Slog of a race, great jumping wins the day

qc3

I check out timeform for clues about other tips we get..
he can get some winners @ good price.
He had stormy weather to beat kind heart in the 1.35
kind heart was the value bet in the race and won @12/1.
maybe worth following.
Ballygulleen makes some appeal on his chasing bow in the 1.50 WINS @ 4/1

mike65

WINCANTON 3:00

Toby Jug 4.5/1
Templer 5.5/1
College Ace 10/1

Profit for win 20.41 win

mike65

All stakes 20 euro

KEMPTON 2.10

Burma Rock 4/1
Heritage Coast 6/1
Resplendent Ace 11/1

Profit for win 19.40 win

mike65

KEMPTON 3.40

Leelu 8/1
Rockfield Lodge 8/1
La Gifted 11/1

Profit for win 38.67 loose

Made a basic boo-boo, the odds meant I could have back 4 even 5, the winner was my 4th choice.

mike65

LINGFIELD 3.45

Fantasy Fighter 4/1
Avrilo 5/1
North South Divide 5/1

Profit for win 10.77 loose Note to self, do not back all amateur and or Apprentice races.

mike65

Todays picks.

CATTERICK 1.30

SIMPLE JIM 4.3/1
DUBAI DIVA 13/2
PARK'S PRODIGY 13/2

Profit for win 17.02 win

---

SOUTHWELL 2.50

TURN ON THE STYLE 3/1
STRIKE UP THE BAND 4/1
ROWE PARK 4/1

Profit for win 4.00 win (Just!)

---

SOUTHWELL 4.20

Astrolibra 4/1
Red Expresso 6/1
Greenbelt 6/1

Profit for win 14.29 loose

qc3

He is tipping well lately

1.25 pun
Timeform 1-2-3:
1. The Hurl (IRE) wins @ 11/8 2. Hazeymm (IRE) 3. Gypsy Scholar
1.30 catt
Timeform 1-2-3:
1. Dubai Diva 2. Park's Prodigy wins @ 4/1. 3. Simple Jim (FR)
1.40 yar
Timeform 1-2-3:
1. London Stripe (IRE) wins @ 10/11 2. Mass Rally 2nd @ 7/2(IRE) 3. Swift Return
FC paid 4.10

1.50 sout
Timeform 1-2-3:
1. Imjin River (IRE) wins @ 5/1 2. We'll Deal Again 2nd @ 9/2 3. Spinning Spirit (IRE) 3rd @ 8/1 FC paid 27.58. T/C paid 178.63

1.55 pun
Timeform 1-2-3:
1. Psycho (IRE) wins @ 2/1 2. Beau Michael 3. Rahan De Marcigny (FR)

mike65

UTTOXETER 3.25

DOVEDALE 4.3/1
DEVON NATIVE 6/1
COBBLER'S QUEEN 8.5/1
THEHONOURABLELADY 11/1

Profit for win 14.25 lose

UTTOXETER 3.55

I'M A LEGEND 5/1
HIGH JACK 4/1
JUMP JET 9/1

Profit for win 15.64 win

L'prof

You up on this?

mike65

About 20 up!

I better get back to this tomorrow.

mike65

CATTERICK 3.40

Cotillion 3.75
Time Book 4.3
Bruton Street 6

Profit for win €10.03 win

---

KEMPTON 2.50

Chosen Son 4/1
Silver Prelude 5/1
Come On Buckers 10/1

Profit for win €16.36 lose Kempton sprint draw bias not being adhered to at all today.

---

KEMPTON 3.20

Ask The Oracle 5.5
Thunderstruck 6.5
Blue Turk 7.5
Inside Story 9

Profit for win €14.48 win

---

KEMPTON 4.20

Hajoum 4/1
Rulesnregulations 13/2
Servoca 7/1
Toms Laughter 9/1

Profit for win €10.40 lose Draw bias doesn't show again

mike65

About 5 up at the start of play today

2.45 FFOS LAS

Dev 4/1
Francis Du Mesn 4.5/1
Storm of Applause 6/1

Profit for win €11.30 win

---

MARKET RASEN 2.25

Civil Servant 5/1
Mansonn Leda 8/1
Karky Schultz 10/1
Laborec 11/1
Ramvaswani 13/1

Profit for win €13.74 lose I knew this was a dodgy race winner 20/1, 2nd 33/1, 3rd 25/1

---

MARKET RASEN 3.25

Rosie All Over 4/1
Teamgeist 4.5/1
Royal Rosa 5.5/1

Profit for win €10.58 lose

L'prof

mike65 wrote: »

About 5 up at the start of play today

2.45 FFOS LAS

Dev 4/1
Francis Du Mesn 4.5/1
Storm of Applause 6/1

Profit for win €11.30

---

MARKET RASEN 2.25

Civil Servant 5/1
Mansonn Leda 8/1
Karky Schultz 10/1
Laborec 11/1
Ramvaswani 13/1

Profit for win €13.74

---

MARKET RASEN 3.25

Rosie All Over 4/1
Teamgeist 4.5/1
Royal Rosa 5.5/1

Profit for win €10.58

Are you picking horses purely based on their odds or do you have to fancy them as well?

mike65

I have no opinion myself really, its a mix of prices, known form and and what timeform says.

L'prof

mike65 wrote: »

I have no opinion myself really, its a mix of prices, known form and and what timeform says.

Just wondering, so all selections would be considered to have a decent chance as well as the right price? If none come in, how much do you lose as opposed to winning ~€10 when one of them wins?

mike65

The whole stake (20 euro per race) btw I'm only using pretend cash right now

L'prof

mike65 wrote: »

The whole stake (20 euro per race) btw I'm only using pretend cash right now

Yeah, that's what I meant (what's the stake)...didn't spot that you said it was €20. I can understand not wanting to use actual money to test out a new system. Interesting all the same!

EDIT: Do you have a formula you use to quickly calculate how much to bet on who?

mike65

Handy tool

http://www.oddschecker.com/betting-tools/dutching-calculator.html

L'prof

mike65 wrote: »

Handy tool

http://www.oddschecker.com/betting-tools/dutching-calculator.html

That is great...I was just working out the odds there by hand.

EDIT: Have you been using it right? Either you have and have just been posting the wrong odds here or not using the tool properly. I got different returns looking at one of your selections above. You know that 5/1 is 6.0 in decimal form for gambling?

mike65

I have a silly habit of posting fraction style ie 4/1 but I use decimals on PP and the dutching tool.

L'prof

mike65 wrote: »

I have a silly habit of posting fraction style ie 4/1 but I use decimals on PP and the dutching tool.

Ah right, sound. Just wondering.