Blitzie's 10 bet challenge/folly

Blitzkrieger

Blatantly ripping off Catenaccio's thread, I said I'd start my own thread rather than hijack his.

Same idea : I'll put down a tenner and if I win, put all the winnings on the next bet. Rather than look for the safest bet, I'll probably go looking for a bit of value. I'll probably also have to post the bets a good bit ahead of time, 'cos I can't put a bet on while I'm in work. It's mostly for a bit of a laugh, so I'll give it three or four tries if I fail....or until I get bored.

I'm thinking Avaí at home to Goias Goiania in the Brazillian Serie A tomorrow night looks good at 2.2. Goias are poor away from home, and even though Avaí haven't won in their last four games, they've scored two goals in all of those and drawn the last three. Even though Goias are above them in the league, they seem to concede plenty of goals while Avaí score plenty. It's goals that win football matches

Blitzkrieger

It's not looking like a good start - Avai are 1 down with 33 minutes gone. I got an average of just over 2.25 for my tenner on Betfair, so we'll see if the bet comes in or if I'm starting agian for the next bet.

I was looking at a few possibilities for the next one. Espanyol looked good at 1.93, Monaco at 1.79 and I thought Brondby -.5 -1 was too good to pass up at 2.18 so I put that on anyway...

In the end I've decided on Udinense at home at around 1.77. Not exactly massive value and wasn't my first choice, but it seems like a good bet still. Atalanta have only scored 3 goals this season and haven't won a game yet. I don't think this will be their first.....

My first choice was a bit of a long shot on the A league. Melbourne Victory were at 3.35 when I logged in and rapidly went down to 3.28, but betfair wouldn't let me put the bet on without putting money into my Aussie wallet. I didn't want to do that because I can't take it out again (even back to the main wallet) without passing the security check ffs. What a **** up of a rule that you can't bet on Aussie markets unless the money is held by betfair Australia. Paddy Power don't ask me to send my money to Austrailia just to put my money on a ****ing soccer match.

Hello0909

Independiente vs Chacarita Juniors

5th vs 20th

Independiente unbeaten in 4....6 scored 4 conceded

Chacarita Juniors....4 scored 10 conceded.Havnt won yet.4 losees

2-0 i reckon. Put your money on it

Blitzkrieger

Argentinian Primera? I was thinking of Estudiantes in that, but thought Udinense were better value. *looks Na - Only 1.57 for Independiente. I think Udinense are better value. Independiente's home goal rate isn't the best either - I wouldn't be too confident betting on the handicap. It might still be worth a punt - Independiente to win at 1.57 isn't bad.

Avai came from behind to beat Goiana 2-1, so bet two was 21.88 on Udinense at 1.77. I'm thinking Fulham home to Hull tomorrow. It's about 1.77 again which I think is reasonable. Even though Hull won the same fixture last year, they usually don't do well in London, and there'll probably be a lot of money on Fulham given Hull's form.

Kinda sickened that Melbourne Victory won 3-1 and I didn't put the bet on at 3.28. Still, the money would have been trapped in the Aussie wallet....

Blitzkrieger

****! Fecking Udinense lost 3-1! ****ing tool of a manager left the league's top scorer out of the team when his strike partner was out injured too. Brought him on as a sub after 67 minutes with the game at 1-1. Benitez was always getting caught by resting players last year too and Ferguson was caught against Sunderland - start your strongest team and rest your ****ing players after the job is done. The poor darlings might have to play an extra game or two but it's much easier than trying to shut the gate after the horse has bolted......

Calm blue ocean, calm blue ocean, calm blue ocean......

I don't mind the loses where it's a close thing, but games like that annoy me - where the team you've backed just don't perform. Atalanta have won their first game of the season and doubled their goal tally at the same time ffs. To make it worse, all the games I rejected went as I expected - Monaco, Espanyol and Wolfsburg all won.


Might be the fact that I'm pissed off, but I'm getting back on the horse tonight. Cruzeiro home to Botafogo at 9:30. Botafogo still look like they're heading for relegation and usually don't do well away from home. I think Cruzeiro will be good enough even without Kleber. They're reasonable odds at 1.83.

Blitzkrieger

Cruzeiro squaked through with a 1-0 victory. I got it down on betfair at 1.94 - love how much higher betfair prices are compared to the bookie....most of the time....

I was thinking of Union Berlin in the German 2.Bundesliga. Not an awe inspiring team but their home goal rate seems good and the last home game they lost was Bayern Munich. I was also looking at Malmo in the Sweedish Allsvenskan. They've won their last five and might be a good bet at home to IFK at 2.45. In the end I decided to stick with 18.93 on Fulham at an average of about 1.71.

I usually have a success rate of about 60%-65% so 10 bets in a row is a long shot in the order of .006. I'm sure I'll get there after three or four hundred tries....

Blitzkrieger

Fulham beat Hull 2-0 so my stake is up to 31.62.

I was looking at Inter, Barca, Arsenal or West Brom for tomorrow night, but decided to go with Sevilla. Stuttgart are really struggling atm and I fancy Sevilla even though they lost last weekend. Got the bet down at an average of about 2.168.

Blitzkrieger

Who's a jammy bastard then? I had bets on Barca, Arsenal and West Brom seperatly and none of them came in. In fact, tonights results almost wiped out my PP account which had peanuts in it anyway. But not only did Sevilla come in (winning 3-1), but I accidentally put the bet on twice

So, guesstimating the amount I should have had on, I'm putting 73.97 on Vasco de Gama in the Brazillian Serie B at 2.24. I thought Vasco were too good to be relegated last year, and they're away to bottom of Serie B ABC. I was going to say ABC had a tough away match at the weekend, while Vasco had no game, but losing 3-0 can't have been that tough. Vasco are in good form atm and will be rested so should win this one.

Tomorrow, I'm hoping we've had enough upsets in the Champion's League for this week, so I'm thinking Real, Porto or Chelsea. Not Utd 'cos I think Fergie's going to play for the draw.

Blitzkrieger

Chelsea might be the safest bet tonight - Chelsea have been doing defensive drills on the training ground, but I think Real are the best value at 1.57, so I'm lumping all 161.8 from Vasco's 3-2 win on them. Despite their known defensive frailities, they'll always outscore most opposition and I don't think Milan will get anything away from home tonight.

Blitzkrieger

Bugger. Rushed to put the bet on Real 'cos the price was dropping, then came across something that looks better value. Wanderers look good in tonight's Montevideo derby. I miss Uraguay. The women there.....but anyway..... Racing haven't won in their last 4 home games and are having a bit of a goal drought. Wanderers haven't lost in their last 6 away, winning 4 of them. I think they're great value at 2.9

Blitzkrieger

You know, apart from the moment when (can't spell Real's keeper's name) f**ked up, I'm really enjoying this. It's agony when all your hard work goes down the swannie on bet number 4, when you're finally getting a decent amount down, but everything up to that point is fun.

So I'm going to start two more

Attempt C, bet 1 will be Montpellier away to Rennes. 5.07 is crazy odds for this match, though I might try to limit my risk a bit. Win or draw would probably give a good price too.

Attempt D, bet 1 will be Sevilla home to Espanyol. Sevilla are in flying form so I think 1.52 are very generous odds in the circumstances.

I've been thinking about the whole "Money you don't lose buys just as much as money you win" thing as well. I'm thinking if I can get above 100 again, I'm going to subtract 25% from the stake before every bet. That still gives me a longshot on showing profit, but gives me a better chance than before.

Blitzkrieger

Just finished watching the Sevilla match and I've never seen a team with so much possession look so little like scoring. They just didn't seem to have any ideas in front of goal. They played against 10 men for the last half hour and still finished 0-0. Monpellier lost too. Typical that out of the five bets I had on today those were the two that lost...

Was looking at the Swiss league for the next, and possibly last attempt. Was looking at Basel but reckon Xamax are better value at 2.96.

Blitzkrieger

Basel ran out 5-4 winners but Xamax lost 1-0 to Sion. Every other bet I had came in. Maybe I should start using this thread as an indicator of what's not going to win....

This is no fun when I can't get past the first match, but I'll chance at least one more. I usually bet 20EUR a point, so I'll up the stake to that to make things easier for myself. I was looking at a couple of 'bankers' in the Uraguayan league, but betfair doesn't take bets on it. It's a shame 'cos I'd have made a fortune on it in the last week. Sod's law says any bet you don't put down wins, so watch Danubio and Defensor Sporting wallop their opposition....

Instead I was looking at Newells Old Boys in Argentina and Bragantino in the Brazillian Serie B, but in the end decided to go with Goteborg in the Sweedish top flight. Their goal rate is very good and their in good form but the price is poor because they're at home. I decided to go with Goteborg -1.5&-2.0 at around 2.08.

Blitzkrieger

And again every bet but this one came in. I'm actually showing a decent bit of profit....

Tonight I was thinking Grasshoppers away to St Gallen in the Swiss super league, or Flamengo away to Barurei in the Brazilian Serie A. I think the best bet tonight is Vitoria home to Corintians at 2.1. Vitoria have only lost once at home since March, and that was to champions Sao Paulo. Their home goal rate is pretty good and their newly promoted opposition don't usually do well away from home.