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Probability Question?

  • 30-09-2009 11:05am
    #1
    Closed Accounts Posts: 206 ✭✭


    I have 10 values. Each has an equal probability of happening. I want to work out what is the value where the probability is 20%

    It is part of a wider problem that I am trying to solve and I am stuck on this bit. I havea feeling mean/variance might have to come into play but I just can not figure it out.

    Thanks

    e.g.

    4323
    2343
    6786
    6787
    1222
    7898
    2312
    2343
    8908
    1233


Comments

  • Closed Accounts Posts: 6,081 ✭✭✭LeixlipRed


    I don't quite understand the question. Can you explain it again?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 206 ✭✭delanest


    Ok, I will try, (changed slightly to try and make easier)

    I wish to make a decision tree with 10 choices, each choice has equal probability (i.e. 10%)

    Say the numbers are a list of productivity estimates from 10 different managers. Therefore at what number from the total list will give me a probability of 10%. so that I can say there is a 10% chance that the productivity will be xxx


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,481 ✭✭✭Fremen


    You're saying "a probability of 10%". A probability of what?

    Are you trying to estimate the mean productivity with a specified confidence interval?

    Is this your own project, or is it an assigned problem?
    If it's your own project, assuming a uniform distribution over the managers' productivity is a really bad idea. You should at least assume a normal distribution, though beyond that I can't really recommend a better model without knowing specifics of the problem. Scientific productivity, for example, is well modelled by the Zipf distribution.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 162 ✭✭nouveau_4.0


    2343 appears twice in the list. 10% chance of each happening = 20% total.
    Solved :D


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,572 ✭✭✭msg11


    P(x)= 1/10 Any number appering

    P(4323 2343) = 2/10 of one of them appering

    P(2343)= 2/10

    I think thats correct, then again I might have forgot to take away the number for the outcome.

    As asked, I'm not sure of your question..


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