Probability Question?

delanest

I have 10 values. Each has an equal probability of happening. I want to work out what is the value where the probability is 20%

It is part of a wider problem that I am trying to solve and I am stuck on this bit. I havea feeling mean/variance might have to come into play but I just can not figure it out.

Thanks

e.g.

4323
2343
6786
6787
1222
7898
2312
2343
8908
1233

LeixlipRed

I don't quite understand the question. Can you explain it again?

delanest

Ok, I will try, (changed slightly to try and make easier)

I wish to make a decision tree with 10 choices, each choice has equal probability (i.e. 10%)

Say the numbers are a list of productivity estimates from 10 different managers. Therefore at what number from the total list will give me a probability of 10%. so that I can say there is a 10% chance that the productivity will be xxx

Fremen

You're saying "a probability of 10%". A probability of what?

Are you trying to estimate the mean productivity with a specified confidence interval?

Is this your own project, or is it an assigned problem?
If it's your own project, assuming a uniform distribution over the managers' productivity is a really bad idea. You should at least assume a normal distribution, though beyond that I can't really recommend a better model without knowing specifics of the problem. Scientific productivity, for example, is well modelled by the Zipf distribution.

nouveau_4.0

2343 appears twice in the list. 10% chance of each happening = 20% total.
Solved

msg11

P(x)= 1/10 Any number appering

P(4323 2343) = 2/10 of one of them appering

P(2343)= 2/10

I think thats correct, then again I might have forgot to take away the number for the outcome.

As asked, I'm not sure of your question..