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The Construction Industry in 2008 and Outlook to 2011

  • 28-09-2009 6:31pm
    #1
    Amhran Nua
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,124 ✭✭✭


    I'm not sure if this has been posted already, a fairly large report from the Department of the Environment, 137 pages, but some of the main points are:

    • The oversupply of units seems to be in the region of 136,000 houses, which amounts to four years of normal demand, assuming we build nothing else in the meantime, although we are building around twenty thousand per year, meaning it will take eight years at least to get rid of the overhang.
    • Tenders prices for new houses are down at least 20%.

    Thanks to Dreaded Estate for bringing this up elsewhere.


Comments

  • #2
    mrgaa1
    Closed Accounts Posts: 759 ✭✭✭mrgaa1


    apart from one-off houses are there really large estates still being built around the country? 20,000 a year still being built - 76 being completed every working day - I haven't seen any new estates started anywhere in the country where I've been - anyone else? Does that report show that there are approx 1million children in primary and secondary education this year? If so does it show how many are entering their final year? Does it also show how many are in university or 3rd level education? These figures will be interesting if they exist as for long term views they all have to live somewhere and not all will leave.


  • #3
    Amhran Nua
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,124 ✭✭✭Amhran Nua


    mrgaa1 wrote: »
    Does that report show that there are approx 1million children in primary and secondary education this year?
    Have you got a source for this?


  • #4
    Victor
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 78,580 ✭✭✭✭Victor


    mrgaa1 wrote: »
    If so does it show how many are entering their final year? Does it also show how many are in university or 3rd level education?
    About 60,000 per year. About 30,000 per year die. And 14,000 emigrated in the last year. Note household sizes are also getting smaller (yet people demand even bigger houses!).


  • #5
    jetski
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 820 ✭✭✭jetski


    30,000 per year die?


  • #6
    beeno67
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,218 ✭✭✭beeno67


    Victor wrote: »
    About 60,000 per year. About 30,000 per year die. And 14,000 emigrated in the last year. Note household sizes are also getting smaller (yet people demand even bigger houses!).

    About 65,000 emmigrated from country last year, but about 57,000 immigrated so net migration was 8,000 reduction. When births and deaths are taken into account the overall population has increased about 37,000 in last year.


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  • #7
    Amhran Nua
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,124 ✭✭✭Amhran Nua


    beeno67 wrote: »
    About 65,000 emmigrated from country last year, but about 57,000 immigrated so net migration was 8,000 reduction. When births and deaths are taken into account the overall population has increased about 37,000 in last year.
    How many of those are short term economic migrants who won't be buying houses though.


  • #8
    beeno67
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,218 ✭✭✭beeno67


    Amhran Nua wrote: »
    How many of those are short term economic migrants who won't be buying houses though.


    Well exactly. Most of the 65000 who left were probably short term ecconomic migrants who just left and never bought houses.


  • #9
    Amhran Nua
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,124 ✭✭✭Amhran Nua


    beeno67 wrote: »
    Well exactly. Most of the 65000 who left were probably short term ecconomic migrants who just left and never bought houses.
    They were, 18400 were Irish though, the second largest group. That still doesn't bode well at all for natural demand versus current build rates. We'll be a long time working that out of the system. Its fairly safe to say regardless that once prices bottom out, a slow rise of prices in line with inflation will probably result.


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