Sun poll: 59% No - 41% Yes

FutureTaoiseach

A new poll by Gael Poll (the Irish Sun's pollsters last year) has shown a surge in support for the no side in the Lisbon 2 referendum. Last year, Gael predicted the result would be defeated 54-46. Apparently the source is Tom Prendeville. As a no voter who had thought all was lost, I now have hope. How does this poll square up against your sense of what's happening on the ground?

New poll shows No said with large lead. I am always sceptical of polls, Lisbon ones in particular. However this one does have more strength that I would normally give to polls for 2 reasons:
1. They asked one single straight question.
2. They were almost spot on with their last Lisbon poll.
I will leave it to yourselves to decide. A nice boost for sure but no cause for complacency.
Received today from Tom Prendeville:
Lisbon Treaty On The Rocks.
A new opinion poll shows that there has been a massive surge in support for the No side, which, if it holds till voting day would result in the Lisbon Treaty being heavily defeated by a margin of 59% NO ‘V’ 41% YES.
In one of the largest polls of its kind ever carried out: Gael Poll polled 1,500 respondents in Dublin, Cork, Limerick, Waterford, Kilkenny, Galway, Athlone, Tralee, Dundalk and Letterkenny over the course of six days last week.
The respondents were asked one single question: How do you intend to vote in the Lisbon Treaty Referendum?
A substantial 723 (59 %) said they intended voting No as opposed to 502 (41%) who indicated that they would vote Yes. The survey also showed that 15% percent of voters were still undecided.
When pollsters discounted the don’t knows: an overwhelming 59% of people would vote No in the referendum as opposed to 41% who indicated that they would vote Yes. The last Gael Poll which was published in the Irish Sun (June 4th 2008) accurately predicted that the Lisbon Treaty would be defeated by a margin of 54 % for the No side versus 46% for Yes campaigners.
On the day of the count -which took place nine days later- the actual result was 53.4% No and 46.6 % Yes.
The uncanny poll prediction which was out by only a half a percent was the most accurate poll in the country.
Pollsters at Gael Poll which is a non-profit social affairs research organization are quietly confident that they will be accurate for a second year in a row:
“Our Poll was carried out over an extended six day period and we used the exact same methodology as we used last year. In our experience the vote is not half as fluid as one might believe. People tend to have very definite ideas about which way they intend to vote, and those who don’t know tend not to vote at all,” explains Pollster Paul Murphy.
One interesting insight that the pollsters gleaned were the variety of ‘off the radar’ reasons why people intend to vote No:
“Frankly a lot of the personalities who are fronting the Yes campaign don’t appear to be very popular and a lot of people have commented upon this.”
“Apart from the obvious well known issues, we found that people were very concernd about the curtailment of alternative medicines and the banning of turf cutting to the over preponderance of EU flags and emblems. If you were to boil it down to core emotions, No voters tend to be enraged and up for a fight whereas Yes voters tend to be motivated by economic fears,” explained Paul Murphy.
The results will came as a shock to the Government and business groups who have poured over €10 Million Euros+ campaigning for a yes vote in the Lisbon Treaty. In comparison No campaigners are poorly funded with a total combined spend of just under €1 Million Euros.

FearDark

Got as far as the "Irish Sun" part and my brain just tuned out.

Sorry about that.

FutureTaoiseach

FearDark wrote: »

Got as far as the "Irish Sun" part and my brain just tuned out.

Sorry about that.

Gael poll was the most accurate pollster last year.

amacachi

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2055670882

Also why aren't you posting this in the EU forum? Oh right yeah, the ban.

Dartz

Country's ****ed lads!

Last one out turn out the lights.

Kalashnikov_Kid

After having a look at all the locations of that poll (all urban areas interestingly), I believe that you could be, lets say quite selective towards who you poll, and get interesting results.

I'm sorry but I don't believe anything that comes out of Rupert Murdoch's @rse.

Princess Consuela Bananahammock

Poll thread needs poll.

dunnomede?

Dartz wrote: »

Country's ****ed lads!

Last one out turn out the lights.

why would the country be fckued if we vote no all would be saying is that we dont agree with the eu streamlining decision making by reducing our proportion of representation.

And if we stand the chance of being reprimanded for votion no we are essentially being black mailed, vote yes or else. If this were the case then why would we want to be part of a union which throws its toys out of the pram when it doesnt get its way?

A definitive NO from me thank you very much.

Dont even get me started about our so called democracy

FutureTaoiseach

I assumed that this was a real poll because it's posted on irishelection.com (and not by me) and sluggerotoole.com. It doesn't appear to be in today's Irish Sun. Is it being held back for another day, or have I been hoaxed? I have emailed my original source to clarify because he named a journalist in the Sun as his source. Maybe they are holding it back for maximum effect - or maybe we've been hoaxed.

javaboy

Please use the EU sub forum of politics for Lisbon threads.