Millward Brown Lansdowne Poll - 53% Yes

Euro_Kraut · 18-09-2009 8:43pm #1

New survey out this evening: http://www.rte.ie/news/2009/0918/eulisbon.html

Yes 53%
No 26%
Don't Know 21%

Excluding don't knows:

Yes:67%
No: 33%

Broadly in line with other recent polls.

Coriolanus · 18-09-2009 9:35pm

Good stuff. Caveat though, wasn't the yes side leading well up to the final week or two last time? Memory fails me but I could have sworn.

nesf · 18-09-2009 9:38pm

Nevore wrote: »

Good stuff. Caveat though, wasn't the yes side leading well up to the final week or two last time? Memory fails me but I could have sworn.

Yes but the No side was gaining support week after week while the Yes side was stagnant or losing support. You also have to factor in close to a 50% rate of Don't Knows at the start of the campaign last time around. There are much fewer of these this time.

Coriolanus · 18-09-2009 9:39pm

Ahh, very good. The specifics were lost to me. Thanks nesf.

vanla sighs · 19-09-2009 1:21am

The polls are just that, polls

The only one that matters is on October 2nd. Cliched but true.....

View · 19-09-2009 1:34am

The only question now is by how much will the No side lose...

K-9 · 19-09-2009 2:17am

View wrote: »

The only question now is by how much will the No side lose...

I don't know! LOL

I think the don't knows swang to No the last time, Libertas and "if you don't know, vote No" point, swung it.

I thought the No side would win by less than last time a month ago, feel it has swung the other way now, thought tight.

There is a certain shyness in saying I am voting No, similar to somebody saying I will vote Ganley in the EU Elections. In that way the No side is always under represented.

The Don't knows are the key and so far, they seem to be swinging Yes, unlike last time.

2 weeks yet!

Hitman Actual · 19-09-2009 9:30am

Patiently awaiting the rush of some No supporters with the claim that this poll is also rigged in favour of the Yes side...

DamienH · 19-09-2009 11:31am

Paddypower is 1/12 for a yes vote, that's pretty much all the evidence you need

WeeBushy · 19-09-2009 11:35am

It's encouraging, but the I don't knows worry me. I just get a bad feeling that like last time, the I don't knows are more likely to swing towards a no vote than yes...

ei.sdraob · 19-09-2009 11:35am

DamienH wrote: »

Paddypower is 1/12 for a yes vote, that's pretty much all the evidence you need

paddy power eh

WeeBushy wrote: »

It's encouraging, but the I don't knows worry me. I just get a bad feeling that like last time, the I don't knows are more likely to swing towards a no vote than yes...

same here, the bull**** coming out of the no side this year knows no boundaries, hopefully people would wake up and smell the ****

WeeBushy · 19-09-2009 11:43am

ei.sdraob wrote: »

same here, the bull**** coming out of the no side this year knows no boundaries, hopefully people would wake up and smell the ****

I fear we may overestimate people

In saying that, not everybody comes to a site like this, or talks to other people about Lisbon who can point out the ridiculousness (its a word

) of the no arguments. They see their big scary posters, and with no posters on the yes side refuting them, they take them for their word, or at least become afraid of the consequences of Lisbon.

It'll be very tight methinks.

ei.sdraob · 19-09-2009 12:10pm

WeeBushy wrote: »

I fear we may overestimate people

In saying that, not everybody comes to a site like this, or talks to other people about Lisbon who can point out the ridiculousness (its a word ) of the no arguments. They see their big scary posters, and with no posters on the yes side refuting them, they take them for their word, or at least become afraid of the consequences of Lisbon.

It'll be very tight methinks.

after overhearing a conversation about Lisbon on a bus from people that you would not expect to be interested in politics

once again sadly i have to agree with you

BlondieCait · 19-09-2009 12:21pm

DamienH wrote: »

Paddypower is 1/12 for a yes vote, that's pretty much all the evidence you need

:rolleyes:

Is this the Paddy Power you spreak of?

http://sports.espn.go.com/golf/pgachampionship09/news/story?id=4405352

squod · 19-09-2009 5:42pm

View wrote: »

The only question now is by how much will the No side lose...

This comment just strikes me as sour grapes for losing the last time.

The_Minister · 19-09-2009 7:07pm

I'll believe it on polling day - not a moment before.

Mrmoe · 19-09-2009 10:47pm

The_Minister wrote: »

I'll believe it on polling day - not a moment before.

I have to agree with you. There is only one poll that counts at the end of the day. I think once it was decided that there was going to be a second referendum then in my mind it was always going to be a yes vote. One of the interesting things for me is what do we after when all is done and dusted and we have a yes vote. What does it mean for Irish politics that a sizable minority of the public electorate voted contra to what almost all of the political mainstream suggested.

Scofflaw · 19-09-2009 11:00pm

Mrmoe wrote: »

I have to agree with you. There is only one poll that counts at the end of the day. I think once it was decided that there was going to be a second referendum then in my mind it was always going to be a yes vote. One of the interesting things for me is what do we after when all is done and dusted and we have a yes vote. What does it mean for Irish politics that a sizable minority of the public electorate voted contra to what almost all of the political mainstream suggested.

That's usually the case, I think.

cordially,
Scofflaw

View · 19-09-2009 11:12pm

squod wrote: »

This comment just strikes me as sour grapes for losing the last time.

Not at all - I am merely anticipating that with the legal guarentees in place that what isn't in the treaty really isn't in the treaty it will pass. Look at the figures yourself - even if the No side persuades all the Don't Knows to vote No, the No side still loses. Barring an amazing turn-around, the No campaigners are just wasting their time...

K-9 · 19-09-2009 11:32pm

The polls had the Yes side way ahead last time, though not to this extent, IIRC. Paddy Power paid out on a Yes last time, or closed betting, well, so they said?

Agent Smith · 19-09-2009 11:44pm

K-9 wrote: »

The polls had the Yes side way ahead last time, though not to this extent, IIRC. Paddy Power paid out on a Yes last time, or closed betting, well, so they said?

They didnt pay me

bastards

Scofflaw · 19-09-2009 11:47pm

K-9 wrote: »

The polls had the Yes side way ahead last time, though not to this extent, IIRC. Paddy Power paid out on a Yes last time, or closed betting, well, so they said?

Not really - April 26th 2008 RedC poll:

35% Yes
31% No
34% undecided

And that was April - about 5-6 weeks before the referendum. The last RedC poll on the 13th September was:

62% Yes
23% No
15% Undecided

Also, the trend that time was an increasing No - this time...well, see here:

http://www.redcresearch.ie/images/SBP13thSeptPoll2009ChartDeck-lisbon2.jpg

That's from here.

As they say, though, there's only one poll that counts.

cordially,
Scofflaw

Euro_Kraut · 20-09-2009 12:27am

Thanks for that link Scoffclaw. This poll data shows the trend throughout 2008:http://www.redcresearch.ie/documents/SBP8thJunePollReport.pdf

The Yes vote never got above 43% in 2008. This time is polling at around 52%.

Scofflaw · 20-09-2009 12:38am

Euro_Kraut wrote: »

Thanks for that link Scoffclaw. This poll data shows the trend throughout 2008:http://www.redcresearch.ie/documents/SBP8thJunePollReport.pdf

The Yes vote never got above 43% in 2008. This time is polling at around 52%.

Thanks, I was looking for that one! The difference is actually a little more stark, in that it's 43% vs 62% when you compare RedC only. The 53% is Millward Brown, and I'm never comfortable directly comparing polls by different polling companies.

cordially,
Scofflaw

K-9 · 20-09-2009 1:14am

Scofflaw wrote: »

Not really - April 26th 2008 RedC poll:

35% Yes
31% No
34% undecided

And that was April - about 5-6 weeks before the referendum. The last RedC poll on the 13th September was:

62% Yes
23% No
15% Undecided

Also, the trend that time was an increasing No - this time...well, see here:

http://www.redcresearch.ie/images/SBP13thSeptPoll2009ChartDeck-lisbon2.jpg

That's from here.

As they say, though, there's only one poll that counts.

cordially,
Scofflaw

LOL, I was going to defend my post at all costs! LOL

Amazing the massive change though and then the REAL vote.

Shows you polls are pointless! No side will gain, how much is the conumdrom.

Euro_Kraut · 20-09-2009 1:18am

Scofflaw wrote: »

Thanks, I was looking for that one! The difference is actually a little more stark, in that it's 43% vs 62% when you compare RedC only. The 53% is Millward Brown, and I'm never comfortable directly comparing polls by different polling companies.

I agree. I was using the 52% Yes figure for all respondents from the last Red C poll. The 62% figure from last was among likely voters. Those polls from last year are, I am presuming, for all respondents.

Scofflaw · 20-09-2009 1:22am

Euro_Kraut wrote: »

I agree. I was using the 52% Yes figure for all respondents from the last Red C poll. The 62% figure from last was among likely voters. Those polls from last year are, I am presuming, for all respondents.

Ah - good point.

standing corrected,
Scofflaw

bonkey · 20-09-2009 8:06am

WeeBushy wrote: »

It'll be very tight methinks.

Agreed.

I'm always interested that such polls don't include a fourth option of "I don't intend to vote". I can see how its not entirely relevant to the outcome, but I'm still surprised.

If, for example, one saw an increase of "don't intend to vote" in line with a decrease in support for one view or the other....that would be quite significant. It would show that for some reason people are deciding not to vote rather than to support "their" side.

I could see No voters, for example, deciding its a lost cause.
I could see Yes voters, in the same vein, deciding that its already done and dusted, so they don't need to personally bother.

Mrmoe wrote:

What does it mean for Irish politics that a sizable minority of the public electorate voted contra to what almost all of the political mainstream suggested.

Wikipedia will show that this isn't all-too-uncommon for Irish referenda.

It is, of course, part of the nature of democracy.

Millward Brown Lansdowne Poll - 53% Yes

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