martingale system

Mike Bassett

Hey long time reader first time poster:p
Firstly Im sure most or ye know what the martingale system is,if not wikipedia it. I think this system can work with extreme discipline,I would apprecaite your opinions though.Im looking at it with soccer.

Heres my reasoning,u only look at the top professional leagues in Europe,I dont think you can trust semi professional leagues ie Eircom league for consistant results. For this example lets say England,Italy and Spain. You pick the top performers Man United,Chelsea,Inter,Barca,Real. 5 teams,u then pick a relatively small target profit per game (.5% of your total stake per game) Then aim to finish up around 10 games before the end of the season so your not chasing potential losses into the final games of the season. This gives you approx 200 games per season and if you study these teams they hav a conservative 60% win rate leaving you with 120 games of profit.

Now i know their are flaws with this system but I think they are greatly reduced by sticking to a small number of teams who are proven winners and are not known for long losing streaks. Also because your target profit is so low compared to stake, you should be covered for a potential losing streak? Also another key flaw is people using stupid teams that are not consistant winners just because they know they will win eventually and the more teams they have in the system the more profit in the long run.However a losing streak can wreak havoc with your stake and therefore just stick to a small number of champions.

Just an example using figures.Stake 200e, TP .5%=1e, approx 60% winners=120e over a season. Not a massive profit but still a better interest rate than banks and it can be grown solidly,next season your TP will be higher due to increased stake and therefore increase profit.

Im sorry If that seemed like a long rant so please dont be too hard on me as it is my first time posting on anything like this and I just have an interest in gambling. I would appreciate your feedback and opinions.Thanks.

Catenaccio!

Yep, certain to work.

kcools

Maybe I'm misreading you but if you have a look at the odds you'd get betting on those kind of teams (eg L/pool are 1/5 this w/end with PP) you'd be up to your bank on the third/fourth stake.

As I said maybe I've completely mis-read what you are suggesting.

TheRock

So am I correct in saying you first system bet would be for example €2 on a 1/2 shot?

The immediate problem I see with you system is you are going to be martingale'ing at very short odds, (probably ranging from 1/6 to 1/2 on average with those teams).

Lets say your average bet price was 1/2 (probably even optomistic).
So say you lose your first bet. (Down €2)
You would have to place €6 on the next bet at 1/2 to recover your loss + €1.
Lose that bet and you will have to place €14 at 1/2 recover your loss + €1.
By bet 4 you have bet €30 to make €1 profit.

Not sure it makes sense to me.

Villain

Catenaccio! wrote: »

Yep, certain to work.

Your attitude is old already tbh

Welcome to boards Mike Bassett, I'm not an expert on gambling in any shape or form others here will give you better advice.

IMO what your saying has a potential to give returns but the odds on the teams you mentioned will be very low excpet for a small number of away games.

Top flight football can actually be harder to study form for e.g. the Premier league always has unknowns in it Man City been a major one this season. I know the system requires a lot of discipline but I think a better system would be to pick 2 teams from say 4 each week.

So e.g. instead of picking Utd and Chelsea every week whether they are at home to Wolves or away to Man City you pick Arsenal and Utd one week because both are at home to lower teams and then pick Chelsea and Livepool the next week because they are home.

I know this gets away from the system you are looking to follow but imo the return is low and requires a lot of betting just my 2 cents others will be more help I'm sure

Mike Bassett

Catenaccio! wrote: »

Yep, certain to work.

Sarcasm?

kcools wrote: »

Maybe I'm misreading you but if you have a look at the odds you'd get betting on those kind of teams (eg L/pool are 1/5 this w/end with PP) you'd be up to your bank on the third/fourth stake.

As I said maybe I've completely mis-read what you are suggesting.

Im not exactly sure what you are trying to say their but if you assume all 5 teams have those odds you would have to bet a total of 25 in order to win 30. because these 5 teams should be favourites in pretty much any game they play they should all win but we all know with gambling this is not always the case so we assume liverpool draw but the other four teams win. your stake will now be 199(assuming it was originally 200 with tp of 1e) and in liverpools next game your tp will b 6e wich of course will mean a higher bet because these teams have a high win rate their should not be much of a losing streak. Im not saying my system is foolproof as gambling cannot be 100% foolproof but it is a solid system in my opinion. Has that helped at all?Its also worth pointing out that liverpools odds are particularly bad this weekend because they are at home to burnley.

Catenaccio!

Villain wrote: »

Your attitude is old already tbh

Hardly.

I've offered lots of advice in this forum so far but stuff like this gets on my tits. Can't help it.

Catenaccio!

Total sarcasm baby.

5starpool

Martingale system is a way to ensure that if your bankroll and betting limit is unlimited, that you never lose. It is not really a system for winning though.

Catenacio - As mentioned above, unhelpful replies are not great at the best of times, but to new posters they are especially annoying. If you can't contribute positively on a genuine thread, it might be better not to post on that thread.

Catenaccio!

Fair enough but maybe there should be some sticky regarding this system? It's crazy how many people still think it can work for them. Just trying to prevent them from losing their entire bank on this system.

kcools

Mike Bassett wrote: »

Sarcasm?



Im not exactly sure what you are trying to say their but if you assume all 5 teams have those odds you would have to bet a total of 25 in order to win 30. because these 5 teams should be favourites in pretty much any game they play they should all win but we all know with gambling this is not always the case so we assume liverpool draw but the other four teams win. your stake will now be 199(assuming it was originally 200 with tp of 1e) and in liverpools next game your tp will b 6e wich of course will mean a higher bet because these teams have a high win rate their should not be much of a losing streak. Im not saying my system is foolproof as gambling cannot be 100% foolproof but it is a solid system in my opinion. Has that helped at all?Its also worth pointing out that liverpools odds are particularly bad this weekend because they are at home to burnley.

That's the bit I would be concerned about - your tp is now €6, therfore stake is up to €30, that one doesn't come in you're up to your bank for the one after. Now of course I realise that L'pool's odds this w/end are particularly short because they're playing Burnley, and that you will get 1/2's etc.

I think Villain's idea may be one worth pursuing further.........Regardless of all that, good luck with it!

Mike Bassett

Catenaccio! wrote: »

Total sarcasm baby.

Are you Eamon Dunphy in disguise?:eek:

Boxfresh

I started a thread a few days ago based on this system just to try it out for a while. Only early days yet though.
http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2055674766

Catenaccio!

Mike Bassett wrote: »

Are you Eamon Dunphy in disguise?:eek:

Ha, you got my reference then :cool:

Mike Bassett

kcools wrote: »

That's the bit I would be concerned about - your tp is now €6, therfore stake is up to €30, that one doesn't come in you're up to your bank for the one after. Now of course I realise that L'pool's odds this w/end are particularly short because they're playing Burnley, and that you will get 1/2's etc.

I think Villain's idea may be one worth pursuing further.........Regardless of all that, good luck with it!

Hmm i think you could be right about Villains idea,some fodder for thought indeed. I see the flaw you are pointing out but my rationale is that liverpool simply wont go 4 games without winning however I realise this might be slightly niaive.Im not a betting expert,just hear to swap ideas and learn,thankfully most people are very helpful

Boxfresh wrote: »

I started a thread a few days ago based on this system just to try it out for a while. Only early days yet though.
http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2055674766

ill keep tabs on this one Boxfresh,i hope it really goes well for ya!I actually used my system over pre season,albeit slightly dfferent using more teams,but due to job loss i had to clear out my online account.Sad times!ha. But i had grown my stake by 10% over pre season,though i had a rather hefty bet on shaktar donesk at one stage and thankfully got out before Munichs winless streak.So u could interpret my 10% profit as luck.Anyways ill keep tabs,hope it works out

Mellor

Mike Bassett wrote: »

Just an example using figures.Stake 200e, TP .5%=1e, approx 60% winners=120e over a season. Not a massive profit but still a better interest rate than banks and it can be grown solidly,next season your TP will be higher due to increased stake and therefore increase profit.

You don't appear to account for the fact that you potentially lose more than you win almost every week.

One lose will take alot of chasing.
Take a 1/5 shot. you need to stake, e5 to return your require profit. if they lose. You need e6 next week. Assuming 1/5 again, you'll be staking e30. Now say they lose again, you'll be looking to make e36, even assuming 1/4 this week, its still a e144 stake, this is a huge amount of your roll. (martingale would work better with longer odds as the exponential growth is less than the bet)

Maringale doesn't work, its simply, if allowed to run ad infinitum, returns the true value. There is little value in the top four teams, esp everyweek betting.

5starpool wrote: »

Martingale system is a way to ensure that if your bankroll and betting limit is unlimited, that you never lose. It is not really a system for winning though.

Sort of, but it can't improve the EV. A winning bet will be a winner in the long run regardless. As will a breakeven or a loser. Martingale just fast-tracks the true return.


OP, seriously, these kind of systems have their place, and if you can identify +EV bets consistently (beware, +EV isn't the same as likely to win) then it allows for steady growth. But, the growth % needs to be a tiny fraction of your roll in order to sustain variance, and the shorter the odds, the smaller again it needs to be. Look at the example above, With a bank of e200, and a target increase of 0.5%, 3 losing bets in a row and you are busto. Too high a risk of ruin imo.


I honestly think that good old fashion grinding is the best system.
Start trying to identify +EV bets. Have a quick read of the Kelly criterion.
The result of any bet is, generally, independent from the last bet. so treat it as such, don't increase when you lose, don't chase loses.

Basically, you will lose money, and it may hurt when you go on a bad run and lose 25% of your profit. But as long as you can identify +EV bets, they you will be a winner in the long run. I recently took a chunk of of my roll, and lost 25% after a string of bets didn't go my way. I went for underdogs in a string of MMA matches as I thought they were poorly priced, I knew they were unlikely to win, but I felt that as long as some win i'm in profit. Well varience struck, and i lost most. It took a month, but after a few good weeks, i'm at a new BR peak.