69 - 2009 progress

Dirk Gently

Having watched the RTE programme last night on what would have happened had the Irish Army crossed the boarder in 1969 it got me wondering about our capabilities today.

programme available on the rte player http://www.rte.ie/player/#

Basically, the programme assumed that 250 men would cross the boarder and attempt to hold out. (although the document itself cited over 2000 men) The programme makers weren't kind, predicting the fighting would have been over within an hour. I'm not too sure why they thought the Irish soldiers would be sitting out in fields ready to be picked off by fighter jets and not occupying urban buildings though? One line they used to describe the Irish forces at the time was a world war 2 army with world war one weaponry.

Hypothetically, 40 years later if the same scenario was to be played out how much more prepared would we be? Air superiority is still the obvious factor against even thinking about it but assuming the conflict was limited to northern Ireland and unconventional methods were employed could the modern Irish defence forces take and hold large (nationalist) areas in the event of a similar humanitarian mission being needed? An obvious plus this time around would be the excellently trained and equipped army ranger wing. I envisage surprise attacks to take boarder counties, opening up of supply corridors south and guerilla tactics to hold the areas, potentially creating a stalemate situation with the Irish dug into boarder urban areas and carrying out hit and run attacks on other targets deeper inside the territory.

I'm not looking for any political debate, just an interesting hypothetical debate on what would happen today military wise if intervention across the boarder was needed.

petergfiffin

Yes, the Irish DF have moved on the last 40 years (unbelievably so) but it's not exactly like the Brits have been sitting on their hands (Northern Ireland, Falklands, Iraq, Sierra Leone, Iraq 2, Afgnahistan etc). I know the Irish DF have been involved in fantastic work on touch peace keeping missions but they simply don't have the combat experience of the BA (very few armies in the world do) and like being "Match Fit" I do reckon it makes a difference.

Also, on the equipment side, yes we've made great leaps and could now at least muster a decent number of APCs but you have to counter that with the fact that the BA is now equipped with a decent number of attack helicopters, not to mention Euro Fighters. Overall I'd say the Irish DF could probably take and hold one large town for a couple of weeks (probably Derry given the proximity to the South and the fact it's seperated by a river) in a Fallujah type scenario but nothing more, plus it would effectively leave the Republic wide open to counter attack.

Overall I'd say same result as if it had happened in 69.

Donny5

They could destroy our supply lines, all our barracks, any vehicles on the roads, our navy, our infrastructure, our international communications, everything necessary even to support an unconventional war. Even taking one town or city for any period of time would be impossible to sustain, unless the British should choose to avoid bombing the Republic.

sliabh

Donny5 wrote: »

They could destroy our supply lines, all our barracks, any vehicles on the roads, our navy, our infrastructure, our international communications, everything necessary even to support an unconventional war. Even taking one town or city for any period of time would be impossible to sustain, unless the British should choose to avoid bombing the Republic.

They would hardly need to. It would be trivial for them to enforce an air and sea blockade and while we could probably feed ourselves (for a while anyway, our agricultural industry would eventually need petrochemicals for machinery and fertilizer production) the country would grind to a halt otherwise within a few <strike>months</strike> weeks.

Donny5

sliabh wrote: »

They would hardly need to. It would be trivial for them to enforce an air and sea blockade and while we could probably feed ourselves (for a while anyway, our agricultural industry would eventually need petrochemicals for machinery and fertilizer production) the country would grind to a halt otherwise within a few <strike>months</strike> weeks.

If the RAF began the destruction of our infrastructure, I imagine the Government would be forced to capitulate in hours. I'm not sure that then the populace would have had the stomach for such a war.

Certainly, today's populace would be outraged as soon as the power or GSM networks went down.

pmg58

Donny5 wrote: »

Certainly, today's populace would be outraged as soon as the power or GSM networks went down.

True, there was nearly mass panic when gmail went down for a few hours last night.

Craigsy

petergfiffin wrote: »

Yes, the Irish DF have moved on the last 40 years (unbelievably so) but it's not exactly like the Brits have been sitting on their hands (Northern Ireland, Falklands, Iraq, Sierra Leone, Iraq 2, Afgnahistan etc). I know the Irish DF have been involved in fantastic work on touch peace keeping missions but they simply don't have the combat experience of the BA (very few armies in the world do) and like being "Match Fit" I do reckon it makes a difference.

Also, on the equipment side, yes we've made great leaps and could now at least muster a decent number of APCs but you have to counter that with the fact that the BA is now equipped with a decent number of attack helicopters, not to mention Euro Fighters. Overall I'd say the Irish DF could probably take and hold one large town for a couple of weeks (probably Derry given the proximity to the South and the fact it's seperated by a river) in a Fallujah type scenario but nothing more, plus it would effectively leave the Republic wide open to counter attack.

Overall I'd say same result as if it had happened in 69.

I think thats one of the main points. Leaving aside equipment, the only others i can think of that would have the same experience as the Brits would be the americans. That and i can't imagine our mowags or scorpians lasting long if they ran into a chally II or apache