Solar costs/ efficiency in 5 years?

soldsold

I have been considering solar for some time, and for now I dont think its a good enough investment for the amount of hot water the 2 of us use (many showers taken at Gym/ GAA training etc).

We are extending the house and considering piping for solar at a later date when we use more hot water.

A question Ive never seen mentioned is: Is solar is getting cheaper and/or more efficient as the years go by, and if it is, will this continue to happen?

It would seem logical that at some point solar prices would find a level that would just move with inflation, and an efficiency level that would only rise incrementally (for example I think MHRV efficiency and boiler efficiency levels are there now, GSHP probably have some way to go, etc but please dont argue these or we will be off topic straight away!)

Any thoughts from any of you that have been involved in installing/ selling or considering buying solar over a few years?

Will solar in 5 years be cheaper and (much?) more efficient?

Steve

PeteHeat

Hi,

If installing solar does not make economic sense at the moment I think you should do as you suggested and fit a 300 litre cylinder with a dual coil and install the pipes to the roof making your home ready for solar in the future.

Having spent some valuable TV viewing time staring into "Ye Olde Crystle Ball" and confirming the info gathered using "Ye Tarot Cards" Solar collector efficiency will increase over the next five years.

As to cost, the level of increases in efficiency will be reflected in the increased cost though not necessarily pro rata with the efficiency increases.

The reason being the research and developement costs will be difficult to recoup as most people will be happy with the performance of the high efficiency systems that were available in 2009.

The ball said the cheaper systems available today will not be as widely used in five years as the home owner will have the benefit of hindsight (heretofore not available).

The cards said average prices will have increased by some 30 > 40% due to rising cost of raw materials such as copper, stainless steel and the energy used to produce them, these increases will apply to systems at all efficiency levels.

The ball said actual installation costs will rise with inflation (ball is being conservative after seeing the cards fall).

I say if possible buy a good quality system and store it until you are ready to complete the installation, the reason being the prices have been dropped to almost cost levels by some suppliers / manufacturers who are struggling with large stock and the unexpected drop in sales over the past ten months.

.

quentingargan

Agree with Peteheat. Current efficiencies are around 80% and unlikely to improve much. We were about to see prices rising last year because copper and steel were soaring, but then as the recession bit, these materials came back again.

If this recession bottoms out, all these raw materials will go back up very quickly and you will see prices rising.

Installers are also more readily available now than they ever have been. Plumbers who wouldn't touch solar a couple of years ago are now game for pretty much anything that gets them out of the house... But make sure they know what they're at.