Technical analysis

Bullish

Hi Guys I am new here, I have a short trading experience approx 8 months.
I would like to find out what TA you guys use.
I have had good results with RSI, mainly looking for RSI uptrend while price still falling to pick my entry to trades I also use ADX but to a lesser extent and only as a confirmation where I will add to a winning position. I am probably a swing trader not a day trader. Hope to get a response to this as I have an interest in analysis.

Bullish

47 views no response,,, Does no one use tech analysis ??

pirelli

Bullish wrote: »

Hi Guys I am new here, I have a short trading experience approx 8 months.
I would like to find out what TA you guys use.
I have had good results with RSI, mainly looking for RSI uptrend while price still falling to pick my entry to trades I also use ADX but to a lesser extent and only as a confirmation where I will add to a winning position. I am probably a swing trader not a day trader. Hope to get a response to this as I have an interest in analysis.

I do and try to use everything i can understand. I use stockcharts.com but will be moving to TD Ameritrade which offers a one of the best platforms you can find ( it uses think or swim).

Moving averages and your all important resistances along with your indicators RSI ADX MFI etc. You forgot to mention volume as this is also important.i find reistances hard to properly predict but indicators are easy to pick up.

I have link where there are novice to intermediate experts that share charts ( not videos) these are posts of charts with descriptions of each indicator and what it means and what they predict. Some are very accurate and prove clearly that technical can outweigh fundamentals. In one chart the chartist looked at one stock and pointed out to me a negative trend in the rsi, and initially i took advantage of his analysis and sold out and bought in when it was cheaper but before i bought back in i checked the chart and it still looked negative but i banked on peoples memory of price ranges to jump back in.

This was a mistake on my part and i had to sell at a loss but there was also a nagging fundamental problem with warrants that combined with the poor chart made the stock a poor choice.


I am mainly fundamentalist and will research a stock until i am happy and i also use technicals where there is no news and average fundamentals to see if there is going to be some activity .

If you want the link i think you will appreciate how simple the chartist makes learning charts from his descriptions.

Bullish

Yes please pirelli, That sounds like exactly what I am looking for could you post the link please.
Yes the volume is important but i try to catch moves before the volume increase, The increase volume would only be a confirmation,

pirelli

http://www.hotstockmarket.com/forums/showthread.php?t=69686

Idu

Day trading I dont hold much faith in TA. I'm of the opinion that TA looks great when you look back at a chart but gives too many false signals throughout the day.

Longer term I'm only really interested in trend support technicals like the 200 day MA or maybe Bollinger Bands. I only use them as a rough basis though just as a guidline really

Bullish

Thanks for the link,
I use TA for swing trades, But i often close out a position the same day and move on to something else.

Anybody here watching UNG ??

pirelli

Bullish wrote: »

Thanks for the link,
I use TA for swing trades, But i often close out a position the same day and move on to something else.

Anybody here watching UNG ??

Along the line of stocks that have been oversold.

Spartan Motors, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:SPAR)

I like this stock and even though its been downgraded to sell. It is profitable and growing but obviously the economical outlook for chassis and service vehicle equipment is not great. Its the price though is becoming a bargain.


I am watching UNG and also watching LEN and FSLR and PCS and LEAP And RST and MTZ have all fallen in the last three months with LENNAR ( Len) being the exception.

Some of these stocks are 100% lower than they were in June.

PCS It has positive earnings unlike sprint and is increasing its customer base
Sprint Nextel is rated higher than PCS and is considered a cheap deal but Sprint has lost 1 million customers and hasn't produced great earnings.Sprint is getting very low now but has 2.2 billion outstanding shares whilst PCS has 350 million. A big difference for similar sized companies.

LEN has negative earnings but is a homebuilding stock and flew up the last three months, very overbought. If you believe the numbers being churned out about homebuilding rising then LEN is on my HOT stock list. I am watching for it to go lower. In the homebuilding sector I am watching CALC also for $1.30 price entry.

MTZ another construction stock but with the notable exception of having very good earnings . I would watch this stock closely. Coming up to or during 2010 it could get a huge bounce.

RST an education stock for back to school.Has fallen in the last couple of months.Fundamentally strong company with a good balance sheet.

UNG

Gas, It is burdened with distribution problems.It really has a long way to go to recover those 2008 highs.


Southwestern Energy Company (Public, NYSE:SWN)

They have a PIPE down that is causing delays anywhere from 1 mth to 5 mths.Over the coming month and hyped about global market correction this share price might drop off. If you think gas and oil prices will be higher 2010 and this is lower coming into winter then you have a nice stock for 2010.

silverharp

For anyone who watches volume , yesterday was a big volume day on the downside. I wouldnt be long now. Keep an eye on the $ , if it goes into a uptrend from here Spe/Oct will be painful


http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/charts/big.chart?symb=spy&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&ma=4&maval=21%2C76%2C8&uf=8&lf=268435456&lf2=0&lf3=0&type=4&size=2&state=8&sid=9864&style=320&time=7&freq=1&comp=NO%5FSYMBOL%5FCHOSEN&nosettings=1&rand=125&mocktick=1

Bullish

UNG I have been watching for months now.. I am looking at entering at 9 and again at 8.60 (this depends on the premium at the time) it could be lower.

The dollar normally trades inverse to the stock market, from what I have notice, flight to safety and all that, I could be wrong but i dont think a strong dollar causes a drop in equities, It is the opposite that happens. IMHO

Hope someone can validate or correct me on this..

Bullish

On Oversold, watchlist is,
AA aluminium producer, up 120% since march low, If I can catch $9.10 on this downmove this will be in my retirement portfolio,

SKH healthcare, Big drop on law suit news currently holding from 7.00

FLOW, Machinery manufacturer up 100% since march lows, Leaders in there field, It will be a long time till this one recovers, Just anounced today an offering of 9m shares @2.10 almost 25% dilution

UNG I have a open buy at 9.00 and hope to see 8.60 also (at present)

pirelli

Bullish wrote: »

On Oversold, watchlist is,
AA aluminium producer, up 120% since march low, If I can catch $9.10 on this downmove this will be in my retirement portfolio,

SKH healthcare, Big drop on law suit news currently holding from 7.00

FLOW, Machinery manufacturer up 100% since march lows, Leaders in there field, It will be a long time till this one recovers, Just anounced today an offering of 9m shares @2.10 almost 25% dilution

UNG I have a open buy at 9.00 and hope to see 8.60 also (at present)

Hi Bullish i think UNG is a good play. I suppose you could play it safe and try get some at under $9. It is a medium term play and might be a while before it starts uptrending and Brave to jump right in there.

MTZ is my pick for 2010.

pirelli

Bullish wrote: »

On Oversold, watchlist is,
AA aluminium producer, up 120% since march low, If I can catch $9.10 on this downmove this will be in my retirement portfolio,

SKH healthcare, Big drop on law suit news currently holding from 7.00

FLOW, Machinery manufacturer up 100% since march lows, Leaders in there field, It will be a long time till this one recovers, Just anounced today an offering of 9m shares @2.10 almost 25% dilution

UNG I have a open buy at 9.00 and hope to see 8.60 also (at present)

I found one callled AMED it dropped 22% because two CEO left the company. It has reiterated its EPS and guidance and has a P.E of only 8.

SKH looks very enterprising with a very low p.e.

pirelli

Leap was the first to take off with PCS following behind.

Bullish

Cheers Pirelli I will check them out. ZSL is what I am tracking at the moment,The dollar seems to be basing now and the metals are topped out,
ZSL is also around 52 week low,

AA is looking good for a move through 12.75,

I am weary of market conditions, The jobs report was more of the usual, bad but not so ugly, I am turning more bearish, I sold my FLOW and SKH today.

If we get a correction the dollar will rally and ZSL will be a nice move

Bullish

I dropped SKH because of Obamas comment yesterday about his hands on approach with health care reform, I dont understand what he is going to do so I droped it. I will probably re enter next week if we get the correction I am expecting.

I am waiting for a move through 5.82 to enter ZSL, I am watching technicals to gauge the entry point hopefully low 5.70

Bullish

Hi Pirelli,
I was looking at SPAR it looks good for a swing trade, On the 2 month chart It looks like a double bottom at $5, Nice Doji on the 25th aug, Whats your opinion on next week, tuesday opening ??

Tech3

pirelli wrote: »

Hi Bullish i think UNG is a good play. I suppose you could play it safe and try get some at under $9. It is a medium term play and might be a while before it starts uptrending and Brave to jump right in there.

MTZ is my pick for 2010.

I'm currently looking at UNG, it does look a good buy for the medium term to long term. It really depends on when gas prices will hit sky high again.

Bullish

Hi Tech 2,
Yes I agree but the contango issue is still there, I think I will leave this one until backwardation starts, this will have a nice run when the direction is confirmed, If I entered here I would be using a trailing stop.

Something smells fishy about this move, it is all on spectulation that a fund bought millions of futures at $10 dollars, they are expecting a 3 fold increase in 2 months. Futures I am not well up on so maby someone else can offer some advise

pirelli

Bullish wrote: »

Hi Tech 2,
Yes I agree but the contango issue is still there, I think I will leave this one until backwardation starts, this will have a nice run when the direction is confirmed, If I entered here I would be using a trailing stop.

Something smells fishy about this move, it is all on spectulation that a fund bought millions of futures at $10 dollars, they are expecting a 3 fold increase in 2 months. Futures I am not well up on so maby someone else can offer some advise

Care to elaborate some more on this please.

Bullish

Hi Pirelli,
sorry but elaborate in what sence,
Someone from the web describes backwardation much more elequantly than i could ;-)
backwardation is a term describing a situation where the amount of money required for future delivery of an item is lower than the amount required for immediate delivery of that item. For example, immediate delivery of gold may cost $1,000 an ounce, whereas delivery in two months only costs $900 an ounce, with that $900 to be paid at time of delivery. It is a peculiar situation, because no rational person would buy gold for $1,000 an ounce today, when they could enter into a contract to take delivery for $900 in two months time, except when they do not believe their counterparty will be able to deliver at the $900 forward price, or if they needed to use the gold immediately (more likely to occur with a soft commodity such as grains). Thus backwardation is a signal that the item in question is in short supply

In about a week and a half, UNG will sell all it's October futures and
buy more expensive November futures, when this happens they will own
about 30% less natural gas.
also an issue if UNG does issue more shares what will happen to the premium currently at approx 15%,

pirelli

Bullish wrote: »

Hi Pirelli,
sorry but elaborate in what sence,
Someone from the web describes backwardation much more elequantly than i could ;-)
backwardation is a term describing a situation where the amount of money required for future delivery of an item is lower than the amount required for immediate delivery of that item. For example, immediate delivery of gold may cost $1,000 an ounce, whereas delivery in two months only costs $900 an ounce, with that $900 to be paid at time of delivery. It is a peculiar situation, because no rational person would buy gold for $1,000 an ounce today, when they could enter into a contract to take delivery for $900 in two months time, except when they do not believe their counterparty will be able to deliver at the $900 forward price, or if they needed to use the gold immediately (more likely to occur with a soft commodity such as grains). Thus backwardation is a signal that the item in question is in short supply

In about a week and a half, UNG will sell all it's October futures and
buy more expensive November futures, when this happens they will own
about 30% less natural gas.
also an issue if UNG does issue more shares what will happen to the premium currently at approx 15%,

Oh I understand!

Yes UNG was a great call but more a swing trade, not one to hold too long. So it might depress the price.

Gas is not going to increase anytime soon and you cannot export it like you can oil so it remains a surplus in most of the domestic markets.

I dont know if anyone noticed FSLR it went from $112 to $139 in 2 days after hitting bottom.

My favorite play this week was AMED, such a simple play.

Bullish

It has been a good week so far, apart from my dropping SKH ouch, I will wait for a pullback and reenter. I bought LIZ on tuesday at $4 but will probably drop it tomorrow that was good to me I will leave a free float of 200 shares, The retail report is out on monday so I am expecting pump and dump.

My still favourite play at this moment is ZSL I entered a little early, and will average down at 5.40 and again at 5, but i dont think I will need the 5,

SLV has met significant resistance at 16.40 area with a divergance between RSI and price action over the past 3 days,dropping volume and ADX line heading south on the one month chart all give support to my analysis.
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/interchart/interchart.asp?symb=slv&draw.x=29&draw.y=5

pirelli

Bullish wrote: »

It has been a good week so far, apart from my dropping SKH ouch, I will wait for a pullback and reenter. I bought LIZ on tuesday at $4 but will probably drop it tomorrow that was good to me I will leave a free float of 200 shares, The retail report is out on monday so I am expecting pump and dump.

My still favourite play at this moment is ZSL I entered a little early, and will average down at 5.40 and again at 5, but i dont think I will need the 5,

SLV has met significant resistance at 16.40 area with a divergance between RSI and price action over the past 3 days,dropping volume and ADX line heading south on the one month chart all give support to my analysis.
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/interchart/interchart.asp?symb=slv&draw.x=29&draw.y=5

MTZ also had a good run. Leap and Pcs also took off. SKH hasnt really done much. Liz was great at $3 but i would prefer sumr or joez.
AMED dropped 22% on monday for absolutely no reason other than memories of Enron or something. I loaded up and it has been going up $1 every day all week with a peak today.

I have almost sold everything and im waiting for a pullback tomorrow. Hopefully we will see one soon.

SMLC looks interesting hoping to see $12.50 in the near future.

Bullish

I am watching the put/call ratio and it seems rediculously bullish, To me that means we are going down IMHO.
SMLC looks to me to be very illiquid, only 10k shares traded today I would be negitive on that one,
One to have a look over is symbol RZ, razor technologies, this is a green play but very interesting the HUMMER that gets 100mpg (equivelant). They have 10500 hummers on back order for next year with there new technology,and geothermal power plants, This one is speculative

Bullish

Just a heads up UNG have announced they are giving out new shares, you can see the PR time on the chart it was approx 12am (us time) yesterday.
UNG closed down 5% to 10.57 and after hours another 5% to 10.07. over the next week the premium on UNG will or should dissappear and trade like a proper ETF again, My new target on UNG is 7.60 I have set an open buy at 8.00 for 1000 shares, once the premium is out of the way this will be a great medium term play. Also GAZ at anywhere under 9 dollars.
GLTA
PS watch the NAV (symbol ung.iv) as UNG purchase more futures it could push up the price of NG, but it will be the near month that increases with November still being weak, This will cause a drop in price as it rolls over into November. So it could be a month before the bottom price comes in.

pirelli

MONDAY September 14th

I am watching these stocks



Imaging3, Inc. (Public, OTC:IMGG)

Is awaiting approval for revolutionary new imaging system that sounds too good to be true. I haven't done full DD on this. It also has alot of outstanding shares. A good gamble though.


Allos Therapeutics, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:ALTH)

Oncologic Drugs Advisory Committee voted in favour 10-4 for Allos. Its deadline for FDA decision is end for september.Obviously small cap pharmas waiting FDA approval are high risk if the approval is denied. This is no different.

This should hit $9 dollars soon, but dont wait around for approval.


Ariad Pharmacutical

. It is now very close to announcing the phase III results which are meant to be highly promising, but as its trading at 30 times revenue i would be highly cautious and perhaps just wait in the sideline to jump on it.


ISTA Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:ISTA)

FDA Approves Bepreve This stock just got approval and was sold off. This isnt great in the stats such price to cashflow/book but would be vauled at a p.e of 30.

GenVec, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:GNVC)


Getting closer to phase III results due in 2010 q1,

Bullish

Nice one Pirelli, for the picks
Watch NVD for a pop on wednesday .. Scalp trade only in out same day.
If NVD pops wednesday take it as a confirmation on COR for friday
And COR for Friday.
I recieved a heads up on ZOOM today but i didnt play it.. My bad :mad:

pirelli

pirelli wrote: »

MONDAY September 14th

I am watching these stocks



Imaging3, Inc. (Public, OTC:IMGG)

Is awaiting approval for revolutionary new imaging system that sounds too good to be true. I haven't done full DD on this. It also has alot of outstanding shares. A good gamble though.


Allos Therapeutics, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:ALTH)

Oncologic Drugs Advisory Committee voted in favour 10-4 for Allos. Its deadline for FDA decision is end for september.Obviously small cap pharmas waiting FDA approval are high risk if the approval is denied. This is no different.

This should hit $9 dollars soon, but dont wait around for approval.


Ariad Pharmacutical

. It is now very close to announcing the phase III results which are meant to be highly promising, but as its trading at 30 times revenue i would be highly cautious and perhaps just wait in the sideline to jump on it.


ISTA Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:ISTA)

FDA Approves Bepreve This stock just got approval and was sold off. This isnt great in the stats such price to cashflow/book but would be vauled at a p.e of 30.

GenVec, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:GNVC)


Getting closer to phase III results due in 2010 q1,

IMGG is up 100% today. I wasn't in it though.

pirelli

Bullish wrote: »

It has been a good week so far, apart from my dropping SKH ouch, I will wait for a pullback and reenter. I bought LIZ on tuesday at $4 but will probably drop it tomorrow that was good to me I will leave a free float of 200 shares, The retail report is out on monday so I am expecting pump and dump.

LIZ is close to $6 today and shot up in the last 2 days, I hope you kept those free shares. You would have a profit of $400. I suppose LIZ has a share price from lat year that makes it a bargain but its not profitable.

Bullish

Yep I have them, I am kinda a hoarder . I have a passion for free shares.
There seems to be an irrational bullishness in the market at the moment IMHO, Lets see how long it lasts.

If LIZ makes it through this recession it will be a bagger, The branding they have is top shelf so these stocks go into the retirement port,

I bought today 5000 CRXX @1.80, This will gain coming up to FDA release date I think it is the 23rd.

Also SLV looks topped out, volume falling off and a divergance in the RSI, So I am confident that this will work out ok on my ZSL

pirelli

Bullish wrote: »

Yep I have them, I am kinda a hoarder . I have a passion for free shares.
There seems to be an irrational bullishness in the market at the moment IMHO, Lets see how long it lasts.

If LIZ makes it through this recession it will be a bagger, The branding they have is top shelf so these stocks go into the retirement port,

I bought today 5000 CRXX @1.80, This will gain coming up to FDA release date I think it is the 23rd.

Also SLV looks topped out, volume falling off and a divergance in the RSI, So I am confident that this will work out ok on my ZSL

Thats $2850 profit in one day if you include after hours on CRXX. CVM is another good punt. It has a wonder drug and a new state of the art cold manufacturing facility and rather alot going for it and an interested party with 19 million is looking at the combination of leap technology & H1N1 flu virus technology they have. It has though climbed from 65 cents to $1.85 cents but they announced a stock offering and it s dropped to $1.30. Its high risk because any crack in the delicate plans can hurt the share price.

ZSL looks like another good hunch, are you still in the gas, I have FTK and hoping to make a hold just a little longer.

Bullish

I was not expecting such a strong move in CRXX, I had a sell limit of 2.38 for 4000 So I got 500 dollars and 1000 free stocks, I lurve free stocks, Worry free investing

ahem IMGG up 450% since you called it on monday ...:o

pirelli

Bullish wrote: »

I was not expecting such a strong move in CRXX, I had a sell limit of 2.38 for 4000 So I got 500 dollars and 1000 free stocks, I lurve free stocks, Worry free investing

ahem IMGG up 450% since you called it on monday ...:o

yeah

I found a lovely stock today XFN at .90 cents. So made a nice profit to end the day.

Xfone, Inc. (Public, AMEX:XFN)


15.09.2009 08:31:52 TimelessWealth.net has issued an overlooked trading idea with Xfone, Inc. (XFN), a Diversified Communication Services Company. Having lost 64.6% of its market value since peaking at a 52-week high ($3.05), Xfone, Inc. trades with a price to earnings (P/E) ratio under six (6). Our complimentary technical analysis succeeds at http://timelesswealth.net/upload/xfn.png

(live-PR.com) - Xfone, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides voice, video, and data communications services in the United States, the United Kingdom, and Israel. It offers cable television services to residential and business customers; international and local carrier services to residential and business customers; Internet access and related services. The company serves governmental agencies, resellers, telecommunications companies, and mobile users, as well as


residential and commercial customers. Xfone, Inc. was founded in 1990 and is based in Lubbock, Texas. (see http://www.xfone.com/about.html)

Xfone’s market capitalization is $19,846,161 based on 18.4M shares issued and outstanding, compared to average industry market capitalization of $98,880,000. In the event the market cap adjusts to industry average, Xfone’s price per share (pps) would need to reflect $5.37, a potential return on investment (ROI) of 397%. Xfone’s book value per common share is $2.38, in itself a potential ROI of 120%. (see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/co?s=XFN)

The Diversified Communication Services industry lists Xfone, Inc. with the smallest P/E ratio among all competitors, with trailing twelve months (ttm) fully diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.184, hence a P/E ratio of 5.87. The Technology sector average P/E ratio is listed as 17.28; The Diversified Communication Services industry, 36.3. Based on fair value calculations, EPS ($0.184) multiplied by the sector P/E (17.28) derives fair market value of $3.18 per common share. This valuation represents a potential 194% ROI. Based on fair market value calculations considering the industry, Diversified Communication Services, EPS ($0.184) multiplied by the sector P/E (36.3) derives fair market value of $6.68 per common share, a potential ROI of 519%. (see http://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=11...nservices&o=pe)