AGI? - Whats the story

Kersh

Whats the story with AGI. Has been 10c for ages now, with little or no movement at all. Whats going on there?

pirelli

Kersh wrote: »

Whats the story with AGI. Has been 10c for ages now, with little or no movement at all. Whats going on there?

They had a drug that failed phase III test. This resulted it the stock dropping 200%. I pretty sure i already posted an answer to this :rolleyes:
anyway... a partner also pulled out recently due to non response from the company. What happens to the pipeline now I don't know.

All it needs is one successful drug to make it worthwhile risk.

silverharp

how does a stock drop 200% , even Anglo didnt manage that:D

pirelli

silverharp wrote: »

how does a stock drop 200% , even Anglo didnt manage that:D

Small cap pharma stocks awaiting trial test results on an important pipeline drug can get wiped out in share value if the test fails.They spend so much on research and development with no net income except the promise of milestone payments but should the drug succeed they are an instant success. In the case of AGI they dropped the drug altogether and haven't improved since.

Larger companies like Johnson and johnson would be immune as they have a reliable source of income.

daveirl

This post has been deleted.

pirelli

daveirl wrote: »

This post has been deleted.

HMM

But look at it this way. You buy at .10 and it raises 100% to .20
then it raises another 100% to .40. Then it drops to .20 thats a 50% drop.
Then it drops back to .10 thats another 50% drop and then to .5 and to .25 and so forth.

So it dropped 200 % in 4 days.

Anyway i don't see it that way i see it as i bought at .10 and it jumped 100% to .20 and if it drops back to .10 thats 100% of my profit gone and not 50%.

Idu

Somebody break out the Busy at Maths books!!

ixus

You're not advising on NAMA are you pirelli :eek:

pirelli

Idu wrote: »

Somebody break out the Busy at Maths books!!

Idu turns up. Typical.

Perhaps 100% of anything is 100% but throw in a additional variable and its more confusing like gain and loss.

I was calculating from a profit perspective. I pick a cheap pharma small cap with a hot drug and it goes from $1 to $2. It took a month of hard and work and my money is tied up when it could be doing other trades.

My profit is 100% of my origional investment and then boom the share price drops 50% back to $1. But i haven't lost 50% of my profit have I. I don't walk way with a 50% profit and shrug my shoulders and say well at least i made 50% profit. I have lost 100% of my profit or share value despite the share price only dropping 50%.


Calculating equities is outside the busy maths book know how. In the busy maths book you have standard deviation whilst in equities you have more than just standard deviation. You have gain and loss and downside standard deviation etc.. so measuring gain and loss in percentages seems acceptable as many professionals use many types of a equations.

Some Examples i found online

Standard Deviation - Standard Deviation measures the dispersal or uncertainty in a random variable (in this case, investment returns). It measures the degree of variation of returns around the mean (average) return. The higher the volatility of the investment returns, the higher the standard deviation will be. For this reason, standard deviation is often used as a measure of investment risk.


Gain Standard Deviation - Similar to standard deviation, except this statistic calculates an average (mean) return for only the periods with a gain and then measures the variation of only the gain periods around this gain mean. This statistic measures the volatility of upside performance.


Loss Standard Deviation - Similar to standard deviation, except this statistic calculates an average (mean) return for only the periods with a loss and then measures the variation of only the losing periods around this loss mean. This statistic measures the volatility of downside performance.

Downside Deviation - Similar to the loss standard deviation except the downside deviation considers only returns that fall below a defined Minimum Acceptable Return (MAR) rather then the arithmetic mean. For example, if the MAR is assumed to be 10%, the downside deviation would measure the variation of each period that falls below 10%.

Semi deviation

Up % - The Up Percentage Ratio is a measure of the number of periods that the Investment outperformed the Benchmark when the Benchmark was up, divided by the number of periods that the benchmark was up. The larger the ratio, the better.


Down % - The Down Percentage Ratio is a measure of the number of periods that the Investment outperformed the Benchmark when the Benchmark was down, divided by the number of periods that the benchmark was down. The larger the ratio, the better.

pirelli

Idu wrote: »

Somebody break out the Busy at Maths books!!

Well if you can supply a constant supply of stocks that increase thereafter everyday IDU then you can criticise. At least if you wanted a 5% gain in one day I could hand pick that stock. I recommended Sponge tech delivery systems yesterday. (SPNG) Its now rising so fast you wont be able to catch it.

Idu

I've been away. Glad to see you missed me anyway. Also glad to see that you haven't lost any of your hyper sensitivity. It was a joke - get over it. Maybe I should have used one of those smiley faces to make it simpler

pirelli

ixus wrote: »

You're not advising on NAMA are you pirelli :eek:

I can see the funny side to this. It is silly but if you can make 200% gain in one trade you can also lose that 200%. Another way to explain Pharma stocks would be the gain in share value would be wiped out completely if a drug failed.
If it started off at a dirt cheap .25 cents and climbed on speculation of the drug passing to $.075. I use the share price before the speculation to measure the percentage it drops.

Who doesnt have a quick check of the chart before buying a stock. If 3 months ago the share price .25 cents constantly for 2 years and suddenly it started to rise, then you would wonder why and you would discover there is a drug been developed and is awaiting approval. So you know the share price is worth .25 cent and has risen 200% on speculation. It will also wipe out that 200% gain if the drug fails and or 66% of your original investment for that matter. That's obviously not 66% of all your money but more than likely only 10 % of your total equities cash or 6.6 % of your entire portfolio

If you had invested at ground zero of .25 cents it would be 200% of your gains gone and huge waste of time and interest from other trades.

pirelli

Idu wrote: »

I've been away. Glad to see you missed me anyway. Also glad to see that you haven't lost any of your hyper sensitivity. It was a joke - get over it. Maybe I should have used one of those smiley faces to make it simpler

Cue a cheesy thank you

Idu

pirelli wrote: »

I can see the funny side to this. It is silly but if you can make 200% gain in one trade you can also lose that 200%.

No you cant. If you buy at 2 sell at 6 you make a 200% return
If you buy again at 6 and sell at 2 you make a 66% loss.

Each is totally individual from each other

pirelli

Idu wrote: »

I've been away. Glad to see you missed me anyway. Also glad to see that you haven't lost any of your hyper sensitivity. It was a joke - get over it. Maybe I should have used one of those smiley faces to make it simpler

I haven missed you. You laughed when i said a $100 dollars in CTIC
Cell Therapeutics, Inc. (CTIC) would be worth the risk in march when it was a penny.You mocked me and ridiculed my ideas. The profit would be now $16000 dollars. A worthy risk reward ratio.

I don't get why you can be so cynical when I'm just trying to help people out with good stock picks. You never support your put downs with facts about the stock and why its doomed to fail but instead usually remark at how unprofessional it would be to invest $100 dollars in anything other than blue chips and ironically how the internet is such a bad place to get tips.

Idu

No I didnt! I think I may have laughed that you advised investing in AIG - the american company. I don't think you could actually find a post where I put down anyone who presented a well researched and thought out stock pick

As for your other point I never said stock picks on the internet were bad, I personally don't believe in trading on other peoples advice. I prefer to do the research myself as that gives people a better understanding on the company on the whole.

I have never ever recommended a blue chip stock to anyone. Ever. If you mean ETF's then I recommend them to beginners without the experience of picking stocks that some have as a lower risk beginning to investing.

Idu

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=59632210#post59632210

Here's a link to that thread btw. If you could point out where I ridiculed your selection of CTIC that would be terrific

pirelli

Idu wrote: »

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=59632210#post59632210

Here's a link to that thread btw. If you could point out where I ridiculed your selection of CTIC that would be terrific

"This is possibly the worst post in this forum's history and that's against some stiff competition"

This was your response to My first post where I suggested CTIC had potential.

Idu

As I said I was talking about AIG. That was my fault for not being clearer in that situation.

pirelli

Idu wrote: »

As I said I was talking about AIG. That was my fault for not being clearer in that situation.

Apology accepted. :)

ixus

Kisses & Hugs for everyone!

Back onto AGI..

rugbyman

pirelli wrote: »

I haven missed you. You laughed when i said a $100 dollars in CTIC
Cell Therapeutics, Inc. (CTIC) would be worth the risk in march when it was a penny.You mocked me and ridiculed my ideas. The profit would be now $16000 dollars. A worthy risk reward ratio.

I don't get why you can be so cynical when I'm just trying to help people out with good stock picks. You never support your put downs with facts about the stock and why its doomed to fail but instead usually remark at how unprofessional it would be to invest $100 dollars in anything other than blue chips and ironically how the internet is such a bad place to get tips.

Pirelli, I value/enjoy your contributions. keep it up.
Thanks, Rugbyman

Idu

pirelli wrote: »

I haven missed you. You laughed when i said a $100 dollars in CTIC
Cell Therapeutics, Inc. (CTIC) would be worth the risk in march when it was a penny.You mocked me and ridiculed my ideas. The profit would be now $16000 dollars. A worthy risk reward ratio.

Not to drag up this argument again but I just noticed that the date of your post about CTIC was the 27th of March and the listed price on that day for CTIC is 0.35. So $100 would actually have returned $500. Not quite the same. Obviously you may have saw that praticular trade beforehand when it was a penny but that was over 10 days previously

NOTE: I just want to point out I'm not belittling your pick by any means. Even at 0.35 it was a nice 400% growth(as of today). Just thought for clarity sake it should be pointed out that the stock wasn't at 0.01 when you recommended it since the returns you've mentioned in a few threads allude to that

JAMM222

was thinking of buying a few shares in agi so i rang up the financial officer and quized him about the pipeline. I reckon its going to be at least 2-3 years before there will be much movement on this stock, their results are due on 22nd of sept and they will be announcing their new stratagy at this stage.

pirelli

JAMM222 wrote: »

was thinking of buying a few shares in agi so i rang up the financial officer and quized him about the pipeline. I reckon its going to be at least 2-3 years before there will be much movement on this stock, their results are due on 22nd of sept and they will be announcing their new stratagy at this stage.

What is happening on the 22nd of september.

The Recliner

pirelli wrote: »

What is happening on the 22nd of september.

Curious about this too as I had been thinking about them as a long term punt

JAMM222

their results and their stratagy are out on the 22nd

JAMM222

might buy a few of these tomorrow for a long term position

pirelli

It has risen on the London stock exchange and appears to be forming an uptrend.

Some info
http://www.reuters.com/finance/stocks/keyDevelopments?rpc=66&symbol=A9I.L&timestamp=20090814060600

Recently, AGI Therapeutics plc met with the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) who confirmed that AGI-010 can be registered in the US under the NDA 505(b)2 regulatory pathway.

Bullish

Hi Guys where is the best place to find iseq charts,
Cheers
Bull

pirelli

Bullish wrote: »

Hi Guys where is the best place to find iseq charts,
Cheers
Bull

Some places you can find them:

ADVFN
Sharewatch

Kersh

Highest volume traded in a while now, but not much price change. Anyone buy or sell any?

ncit9933

Are they in meltdown at this stage or what is the story?

Kersh

Still seems to sit around 5c or so all the time, Never really moves much even when volumes are traded. Im holding 13000 of these , so any heads up is still much appreciated.