Heineken Cup Betting 09-10

thomond2006

Munster 4/1

Stade Francais 13/2

Toulouse 7/1

Leinster 8/1

Leicester, Clermont 12/1

London Irish, Ospreys, 16/1
Perpignan

Cardiff, Gloucester 20/1

Biarritz, Bath 25/1

Harlequins 33/1

Northampton 40/1

Brive, Edinburgh 50/1

Sale 66/1

Ulster, Glasgow, 80/1
Scarlets

NGDragons 100/1

Treviso 1000/1

Viadana 2000/1

What do you make of those odds?

Do you think Munster @ 4-1 is a good price?

If Stade can get it together, they are in with a shout.

Toulouse are riddled with injuries at the moment, especially at 10.

Any advice would be greatly appreciated.

Cheers,
thomond2006

soundsham

stade is value to me
final to be played at stade de paris
of all the french teams they may take their eye off the league a little for this one in the latter stages

8-10

Had Tigers @11/1 last year but they fupped that up :mad:

12/1 this year is worth a punt for me just because it's a longer price.

profitius

No value at all with Munster. They've 2 tough away games so maybe its better to wait a while.

Ospreys at 16/1 looks good. They could be crap but if they can get on a roll who knows what'll happen.

Warper

profitius wrote: »

No value at all with Munster. They've 2 tough away games so maybe its better to wait a while.

Ospreys at 16/1 looks good. They could be crap but if they can get on a roll who knows what'll happen.

Ospreys are crap. Munster deserve to be favourite and whoever beats them will probably win it. The French are massive dangers but seem so wrapped up in the Super 14, that they throw out reserve teams away from home which means a lot of them wont get out of the Group stages and if they do face away q/f's anyways. Toulouse seem to be the only French team that takes it seriously. If Clermont focused on this, they would be right up there.

So basically you can dismiss the Welsh and the Scottish teams. It is between Munster, Leinster, Toulouse.

Munster look good to top Group 1 @ 4-6

profitius

Warper wrote: »

Ospreys are crap. Munster deserve to be favourite and whoever beats them will probably win it. The French are massive dangers but seem so wrapped up in the Super 14, that they throw out reserve teams away from home which means a lot of them wont get out of the Group stages and if they do face away q/f's anyways. Toulouse seem to be the only French team that takes it seriously. If Clermont focused on this, they would be right up there.

So basically you can dismiss the Welsh and the Scottish teams. It is between Munster, Leinster, Toulouse.

Munster look good to top Group 1 @ 4-6

Ospreys have as much talent as anyone and have about 7 Lions players, the world player of the year and Jerry Collins, Holah and Tiatia. If they can gel as a team they'll be hard to beat.

The danger I see with Munster is their change of playing style. The used to be more forward orientated but now its the backs who they're concentrating on more. Leinster have gone the other way and look who won the heineken cup. Jean De Villiers will be a big addition to Munster if he can stay fit.

myflipflops

Double post

myflipflops

Warper wrote: »

So basically you can dismiss the Welsh

I wouldn't be dismissing Cardiff, they're a good, well coached team and were a penalty competition away from the final last year. Big issue against them this year is the group they got drawn in (Sale, Toulouse & Harlequins). The Ospreys were one of the worst coached teams I've ever seen last year, on paper they are good though. I'm with you about them though, one to oppose.

The group draw is key in this competition. Leinster and especially Munster got good draws. Teams like Toulouse, Leicester, Clerment, Cardiff and Ospreys got tough groups.

Munster are deserved favorites but not a bet at the price (4/1) for me. I also wouldn't be backing Leinster @ 10/1 this year (I'm a season ticket holder too!). It looks a few ticks short.

I like the 25/1 about Cardiff with the hope that they negotiate the group. 40/1 on a very strong Northampton squad looks ok to me too (don;t see how they are 40/1 when L Irish are 20/1). In a group with Munster but also an Italian team and having Munster in your home ground first up is tradtitionally the best time to play them so a runner up qualifynig spot looks on the cards.

With regard to Clermont, if i had a guarantee that they were actually trying to win the competition then I'd be backing them but there's a fair chance they won't really bother with the Heineken cup until they have a Top 14 in the bag.

I actually don't think there's any standout value this year as opposed to the 25/1 about Leinster pre tournament last time out that was 10 points too big at least.

racso1975

slightly off topic but do you guys think ireland at 7/2 for the 6 nations is a good bet

myflipflops

racso1975 wrote: »

slightly off topic but do you guys think ireland at 7/2 for the 6 nations is a good bet

They play England and France away this time but the whole thing looks very close to me. No stand out team really so the 4/1 with Stan James probably is a bit of value (15/8 France in some places looks really short).

Former Great

I would expect england to win the triple crown, they have wales and ireland at home and scotland away... I dont see ireland turning the english over at twickenham.. And i wouldnt back munster as the declan kidney factor is gone..

8-10

Warper wrote: »

Ospreys are crap. Munster deserve to be favourite and whoever beats them will probably win it. The French are massive dangers but seem so wrapped up in the Super 14, that they throw out reserve teams away from home which means a lot of that em wont get out of the Group stages and if they do face away q/f's anyways. Toulouse seem to be the only French team that takes it seriously. If Clermont focused on this, they would be right up there.

So basically you can dismiss the Welsh and the Scottish teams. It is between Munster, Leinster, Toulouse.

Munster look good to top Group 1 @ 4-6

Dismiss Leicester Tigers at your peril. We have Ospreys and Clermont in our group, granted, but get out of that and Tigers can beat anyone.

Allen is a great addition to the backs. With him and Hipkiss/Mauger in the centre, Ellis and Flood/Vesty at half-backs (Vesty really started coming into his own at the end of the season) as well as the strength of White, Castrogiovanni, Deacon and Kay up front with the emergence of Tom Croft as a world-class flanker.....a pushover they are not.

Only weak spot I can see is the back 3. Geordan Murphy picks himself as captain and had an outstanding back-end to the season also. But there's no depth if he gets injured. Tuilagi and J Murphy would be my choice wingers but again there's not the same depth of talent as some other Premiership teams.

Looking forward to the season again though. Tigers are backed with my money yet again and I hope they can do one better this year!

PhatPiggins

Warper wrote: »

Ospreys are crap. Munster deserve to be favourite and whoever beats them will probably win it. The French are massive dangers but seem so wrapped up in the Super 14, that they throw out reserve teams away from home which means a lot of them wont get out of the Group stages and if they do face away q/f's anyways. Toulouse seem to be the only French team that takes it seriously. If Clermont focused on this, they would be right up there.

So basically you can dismiss the Welsh and the Scottish teams. It is between Munster, Leinster, Toulouse.

Munster look good to top Group 1 @ 4-6

Sorry but if you take Munster at 4/6 with away games in Perpignan and Northampton, with an away game to the Saints first up you should stop gambling. They'll easily trade at over evens if they lose the opener.

You cant dismiss Cardiff and the Ospreys so lightly and Glasgow have a reasonable group and could easily make the quarters.

Warper

PhatPiggins wrote: »

Sorry but if you take Munster at 4/6 with away games in Perpignan and Northampton, with an away game to the Saints first up you should stop gambling. They'll easily trade at over evens if they lose the opener.

You cant dismiss Cardiff and the Ospreys so lightly and Glasgow have a reasonable group and could easily make the quarters.

I havnt backed them yet but I do think they will top the Group. I take your point about them drifting if they lose their opener but thats assuming they lose their opener. Vice versa if they win their opener thats practically the group decided as they are nigh unbeatable at Thomond. Their second and third matches are at home - obviously look at the fixture list. IMO out of all the groups Munster appear the best value.

I backed Toulouse last year where they fell to Cardiff at a rain-soaked stadium. Toulouse could have easily won and probably should have - Cardiff were hanging on but they are a decent side. Glasgow havnt a hope in hell of winning the HC and Ospreys well are the Ospreys.

Munster @ 4-1 is a skimpy price but they are battle-hardened. I will wait and see what specials are on offer before betting on the outright market - last year Boyles were refunding all bets if an Irish team won it (that was a great offer).

Stade are without Hernandes who moved to SA. Hard to call but as someone mentioned Leicester are always there or thereabouts as well. Munster, Leicester, Toulouse ??????? What you are looking for is a team that will have a home quarter-final.

http://www.ercrugby.com/eng/12_12877.php