Tips For USPGA !!

Paud.....

anyone who has any tips for the final major.....post them here and help us out a bit!!

BillyBoy

Here is Dave Tindall's tips from Golf365. He's had a good year tipping some outsiders who have won and also tipped Cabrera for the Masters

There are lots of reasons why Tiger Woods will win this week's USPGA.

How about his back-to-back wins at Warwick Hills and Firestone over the last fortnight.

Or how about the fact that he's yet to win a major this year, leaving him stuck on 14 - four behind Jack Nicklaus and now one less than his mate Roger Federer has tennis Grand Slams.

However, if I needed convincing - and to be honest I didn't - it came after I'd done some research into the longest courses ever used in majors history.

Hazeltine, at a mightly 7,674 yards, will break the previous record.

Prior to this week, the two longest were Torrey Pines (2008 US Open - 7,643 yards) and Medinah (2006 USPGA - 7,561 yards) and guess who won those two events? Yes, Tiger Woods.

Trying to Tiger-proof courses by lengthening them clearly doesn't work and the truth is Woods has more trouble at twisty, fiddly major venues where pin placements, not length, are used to defend the course.

Hopefully, a fair few of you took last week's advice to back Tiger to win both at Firestone and Hazeltine as it means we're now holding a 7/1 ticket about the great man winning this week.

But, if you didn't, you'll have to accept the current 7/4 - a fair price on one hand but not the sort of odds to attract a lot of punters, especially those who only get out their wallets for the majors.

So, in the belief that Tiger will win, it's a question of how to play the rest of the field.

Sometimes the 'without Woods' prices look cramped but I think there's plenty to tuck into this year and I'll begin with the 60/1 about Mike Weir (he's 66s in a place but with five each-way places not six).

The knee-jerk response to this advice will probably be that the Canadian isn't long enough.

However, it could be dangerous to get obsessed by length and big hitters this week.

For starters, the tees can be moved up, meaning the course could play more around the 7,400 yard mark - still very long but not freakishly so.

Secondly, it's simply not true that only big hitters thrive on long courses.

Back in 2002, Hazeltine was considered very long despite it being 314 yards shorter than it is this year. And a check of the top 10 from seven years ago shows plenty of short or downright puny hitters - Fred Funk, Chris Riley and Rocco Mediate.

And, in any case, rather than speculate on whether length is a huge advantage on long courses, let's check the evidence.

The results are revealing.

After Torrey Pines ('08) and Medinah ('06), the next longest courses used for majors are Whistling Straits (2004), Bethpage Black (2009), Oakland Hills (2008), Carnoustie (2007) and, of course, Augusta.

As well as winning at Augusta in 2003, Weir's name also crops up in the top 10 at Medinah (6th), Bethpage Black (10th) and Carnoustie (8th) so surely that proven record counts for more than the bare stats which show him at 168th on the US Tour's Driving Distance stats.

Weir was the bookmakers' favourite after 36 holes of the US Open before fading and after his 24th in the weather-hit Canadian Open he wrote on his own website: "As I leave Glen Abbey, I really feel that my game is very close to firing on all cylinders. I think the parts are all there and each tournament I'm getting better and better. I know that one of these weeks it will all come together for me and those lip-outs will become lip-ins."

He built some more momentum at Firestone last week where he finished 10th and his record in the majors has been littered with top 10s since his breakthrough victory at Augusta.

Weir first came to prominence in this event 10 years ago and many forget he was the leader going into the final round before leaving the stage for that epic shootout between Sergio and Tiger.

Since then he's bagged a major, a WGC success and a Tour Championship so he's a proven winner in elite company.

The 60/1 without Woods is good business.

Talking of prices, I'm startled by the 28/1 over Phil Mickelson. So much so that I simply have to get Lefty onside.

Betfred seem to be taking the view that last week's tied 58th at Bridgestone was evidence that Mickelson's mind is understandably elsewhere with both his wife and mother being diagnosed with cancer.

Yes, he has an awful lot to cope with but this was exactly the case before the US Open at Bethpage when the news surrounding wife Amy was even more uncertain.

On that occasion, Mickelson had had time off before returning to the course with a tied 59th at the St Jude Classic. This time the circumstances are almost identical. He's playing his second tournament back after a tied 58th.

A check back to that list of players who go well on long courses and, as you might expect, Mickelson is right up there.

Looking at the six longest US courses ever used for majors and Mickelson's name crops up repeatedly in the top 10.

As well as being a standing dish at Augusta, Lefty was sixth at Whistling Straits, runner-up at Bethpage and seventh at Oakland Hills.

Although he didn't feature at Hazeltine in 2002 (tied 34th), he stopped by the course a couple of weeks ago and shot a three-under 69 - one shot more than the 68 he closed with seven years ago.

This is a course where Mickelson can thrive and having handled the outpouring of emotion in the US Open there's no reason why he can't do something he's done all his career - come off the back of a poor performance and post a win.

My other pick from the upper end of the betting is Steve Stricker.

The man from Wisconsin, which neighbours Minnesota, will be very much on home ground playing a major in the Midwest and there's just so much to like about his play in 2009.

Let's reel of his stats: 2nd US Money List, 2nd All-Around Ranking, 2nd FedEx Cup race, 1st Scrambling, 1st Approaches from 50-125 yards.

Those latter two categories highlight the strength of his wedge play and short game and those will be vital elements on a course this length.

The most important numbers though are the 1s which indicate his two victories this year - at Colonial in May and at the John Deere last month.

Stricker has posted five top eight finishes in his last 11 majors although his closest brush with victory came in this event back in 1998 when he was edged out by Vijay Singh.

The Ryder Cup man warmed up for Hazeltine with a sixth place at Firestone last week and in his mind that was significant.

Stricker said: "This is a perfect warm-up (for Hazeltine). This is almost a similar style to what we're going to be playing next week, old style golf course with big trees and narrow fairways, same grass so it's a good test and a good tune-up."

Having finished seventh in the 2006 USPGA at Medinah, eighth at Carnoustie in 2007 and sixth in this year's US Masters he definitely ticks the 'can thrive on long courses in majors' box so get Stricker in your staking plan.

Stricker could easily prove best of the rest so I'll take him 'without Tiger' at 25s.

Next up and 10 years on from Sergio's coming out party at Medinah, I'm going to back Rory McIlroy to do something similar and give Tiger the fright of his life.

Due to his background growing up on links courses, conventional wisdom says that the Open is the major where McIlroy is most likely to shine.

But the young Northern Irishman thinks differently.

"I feel my best chance to win a major is in the United States," McIlroy revealed recently.

"The high ball flight, the greens and the way I can approach shots suit my game which I have to rein in when I am home."

His results appear to back up that claim. On his Masters debut in April he finished up 20th while a first start at the US Open yielded an even more impressive tied 10th. At Turnberry he finished down in 47th.

Due to a modest performance at Firestone last week, McIlroy's price has been on the drift but he had stated he was using the Bridgestone event to hone his game for Hazeltine so we shouldn't be put off.

One thing McIlroy loves about the US is the buzz so it should certainly work in his favour that the Minnesota crowds will be out in force this week.

An estimated 25,000 attended Monday's practice day - way, way more than at Bethpage or Turnberry - and the Americans have really taken young McIlroy to heart.

"I feel good about my game going into the PGA Championship," he told the Guardian on Monday and the way he's going, it's unlikely we'll see him at prices such as 80/1 in future majors.

That looks a great each-way bet but once more we'll take the 60s with Tiger taken out as this is a market he can realistically win.

Finally, as a real outsider I like the look of Brandt Snedeker.

The American, somewhat under the radar, can boast two top fives and a second place in his last four starts on US soil.

"I feel really great about my game," he said after his runners-up finish at the John Deere Classic and since then he's added a fifth in Canada a few weeks ago.

Snedeker also has form on long major courses. In 2008 he finished third at Augusta and later ninth at Torrey Pines while he also made the top 25 in last year's USPGA at Oakland Hills.

As an added bonus, he also has special memories of Minnesota as it was in this US State where he posted his one and only Nationwide Tour win.

That came in the Scholarship America Showdown where he survived howling winds on the final day to win out in a play-off.

Tied 18th and tied 24th in his two USPGA starts to date, he's worth a pop in the Tigerless betting at 100/1 (six places).

Tips:

1pt e.w. Mike Weir 'without Woods' at 60/1 (Stan James 1/4 1,2,3,4,5,6). Game looks close and has excellent record on longest major tracks.

2pts e.w. Phil Mickelson at 28/1 (Betfred 1/4 1,2,3,4,5,6) A lot on his plate but was in same situation pre-US Open where he finished runner-up.

2pts e.w. Steve Stricker 'without Woods' at 25/1 (General 1/4 1,2,3,4,5). In great form this year, solid majors record, and should have plenty of support.

1pt e.w. Rory McIlroy 'without Woods' at 60/1 (Blue Square 1/4 1,2,3,4,5). 20th and 10th in first two US majors of season and loves playing in America.

1pt e.w. Brandt Snedeker 'without Woods' at 100/1 (Stan James 1/4 1,2,3,4,5,6). In form, fine record on long major courses and even a win in Minnesota on his CV.

Already recommended:

5pts Tiger Woods to win The WGC-Bridgestone Invitational & USPGA at 7/1 (Stan James). Leg one completed. Will be desperate not to end year without a major.

syngindub

Miguel Angel Himenez for a top 10

NickJagger

I assume that the odds on that particular bet would be poor?

A friend of mine, the gambling-sort, who knows a lot about golf advised me to back a chap by the name of Ross Fischer. Look for odds of 60 - 1 plus.
Anyone care to second this advice?

ozymandias10

NickJagger wrote: »

I assume that the odds on that particular bet would be poor?

A friend of mine, the gambling-sort, who knows a lot about golf advised me to back a chap by the name of Ross Fischer. Look for odds of 60 - 1 plus.
Anyone care to second this advice?

Ross Fisher has contended well in majors this year...is long off the tee and is a good top ten bet but whether he will be placed in the top 5 to be paid is another thing...good value though

pinkdoubleeagle

I did a few e/w bets
Hunter Mahan 33-1
Steve Stricker 35-1
Kenny Perry 50-1
Paddy Power are paying out on first six in their e/w bets

Paud.....

alright i bet with Paddy Power

Villegas to be the Top Rest of World Player at around 25/1
Harrington at 14/1 outright without Tiger
Mike weir e/w at 80/1
and brandt Snedeker e/w at 150/1

NickJagger

Allenby and Retief on e/w bets

Dodser

brandt Snedeker is my outside bet. But my main monety is on Stricker. See the scores live on http://www.pga.com/pgachampionship/2009/scoring/