Premier League Top Goal-Scorer - Thoughts?

Mezcita

Thought I would jot down some thoughts on this. Ranked the top ten guys by their best prices which are currently available. Avoiding Betfair prices as I tend to go each way on these bets. Goal stats are from Wiki and were probably made up by a ten year old.

10. Adebayor - 26.0 at Coral
Pro's: Good season a couple of years ago.
Con's: City have six million strikers. Not guaranteed a game.

9. Robinho - 26.0 at Coral
Pro's: Decent first season in the Premier League last year.
Con's: See Adebayor.

8. Defoe - 26.0 at various books
Pro's - Proven goalscorer in this league. Nearly guaranteed a game if he stay's fit. Not involved in Europe which for this type of bet is a bonus.

Con's - He's not exactly prolific though. 108 goals in 300 league games (Wiki).

7. Steven Gerrard - 23.0 at Expekt
Pro's - Great season last year. Plays behind Torres these days so gets plenty of chances. Takes pennos and free kicks.

Con's - Not many at that price. Involved in European games.

6. Van Persie - 21.0 at various.
Pro's - Improvement last year in the number of games he played. Can take free kicks and pennos.

Con's - Wenger drops him occasionally so he does not seem to be over his injuries.

5. Michael Owen 21.0 at VCBet.
Pro's - Used to be good. Couple of goals in two games pre season for United.
Con's - Ferguson said today that he will not play every game and expects to use him as an impact sub. Always injured.

4. Rooney - 14.0 at Expekt
Pro's - Can expect to play more up front with Ronaldo gone. 80 goals in 224 league games.
Con's - Only scored more than 15 league goals once in his career.

3. Anelka - 13.0 at Paddy Power
Pro's - Last season's top scorer with 19 league goals in 35 league games.
Con's - Under new management at Chelsea.

2. Drogba - 12.0 at Expekt
Pro's - Very good player.
Con's - Questions about his future at Chelsea before the end of last season. Only played 41 league games in the last two years at Chelsea. Poor price.

1. Torres - 5.0 at Various
Pro's - Goal machine. 120 goals in 271 league games. Includes 14 league goals in 24 games last season. If he stays fit he could run away with it.
Con's - Injury worries but not as bad as I thought. Last season was the first time he has played lest than 25 league games since the first year of his career. Price is very, very low though.

Overall:

Gerrard's price stands out at 23.0 Expekt don't seem to have an each-way price though. Ladbrokes have him at 21.0 at 1/4 each way. Think that Liverpool will challenge for the league this season as Ronaldo is a big loss for United.

Torres price is just too low for me.

Possible mental outsider bets would include Eduardo and Arshavin at 34.0 (Ladbrokes). Wenger says he has no plans to replace Adebayor and said that the return of Eduardo is like having a new player. However, Eduardo has been practically broken by serious injuries in recent years.

Arshavin made a very impressive start to his career at Arsenal scoring 6 goals in 12 league games. This was despite him not being played up front. If Wenger moves him forward this price could be valuetastic.

Mez pic: Arshavin 34.0 each way at Ladbrokes (1/4)

mike65

PP prices pays 1/4 e/w to 4 places.

Agree, Arshavin (26/1) could be an exellent price and Gerrard e/w (19/1) could be value.

Patriots might take a chance on Keane at a massive 67/1

Torres at nearly 4/1!

S.M.B.

Got Gerrard at 32/1 with betfair during the week. If Torres stays fit for the entire season hell run away with it.

That's a big enough if for me to take a chance on Gerrard at those odds though.

Leixlip_Red

S.M.B. wrote: »

Got Gerrard at 32/1 with betfair during the week. If Torres stays fit for the entire season hell run away with it.

That's a big enough if for me to take a chance on Gerrard at those odds though.

I agree completely, if Torres stays fit he will win it by a streak !

I will be backing Gerrard myself... provided he isn't locked up

Royale with Cheese

Nasri just broke his leg so Arshavin will probably have to play on the wing for the first few months of the season at least.

Arshavin's not that prolific a goalscorer either.

mike65

Liverpool 4 4 Arshavin suggests he may be quite good.

8-10

mike65 wrote: »

Patriots might take a chance on Keane at a massive 67/1

That's not bad as an e/w.

I have Arshavin from a few weeks ago. If Huntelaar moves I might try and get on that early as he scores for fun. I'd dismiss Defoe/Rooney/any City striker.

Royale with Cheese

mike65 wrote: »

Liverpool 4 4 Arshavin suggests he may be quite good.

51 goals in 238 games for Zenit suggest he may not. Seriously don't get carried away with that game, personally I don't think Arshavin for top goalscorer is a good bet.

Raskolnikov

In the last 10 years, only Jimmy Floyd Hasselbaink (2000-01) has won it in his first season with a new club.
That rules out: Carlos Tevez, Roque Santa Cruz & Michael Owen

The last nine seasons, the winner was playing for a “Big 4″ team.
That rules out: Jermain Defoe & Robinho

The only player ever to win in that wasn’t always playing as an out and out striker is Cristiano Ronaldo.
That rules out: Frank Lampard, Steven Gerrard, Andrei Arshavin.

The last British top-scorer……Kevin Phillips (1999-00)
That rules out: Wayne Rooney

Still standing: Fernando Torres, Didier Drogba, Nicolas Anelka, Robin van Persie.

Bubs101

I like eduardo at 31-1 on Betfair, as long as he is fit he's Arsenal's best goalscorer, Evans Blake at 99-1, he's done it twice in a row and Johnson and Phillips have shown that you can bring that form up, and Gabby Agbonglahor at 109-1, Massive value

mike65

Ebanks-Blake at 99/1 is interesting/tempting but Wolves are going to be defending quite a lot I imagine.

Mezcita

Stats are fairly easy to mess around with though Raskolnikov.

Raskolnikov wrote: »

In the last 10 years, only Jimmy Floyd Hasselbaink (2000-01) has won it in his first season with a new club.
That rules out: Carlos Tevez, Roque Santa Cruz & Michael Owen

Can't argue with that.

Raskolnikov wrote: »

The last nine seasons, the winner was playing for a “Big 4″ team.
That rules out: Jermain Defoe & Robinho

In seven of the last nine seasons, a player from outside the "Big 4" has finished in the top three highest goalscorers.

Raskolnikov wrote: »

The only player ever to win in that wasn’t always playing as an out and out striker is Cristiano Ronaldo.
That rules out: Frank Lampard, Steven Gerrard, Andrei Arshavin.

Gerrard 3rd last season. Lampard 3rd (04/05). Gerrard playing much more advanced these days. Don't get me wrong, Arshavin is a long shot but if he gets moved more forward and maintains his form from last season it could work. It's the price that attracts me, especially each way.

Raskolnikov wrote: »

The last British top-scorer……Kevin Phillips (1999-00)
That rules out: Wayne Rooney

Ruling out all British players is a bit harsh. Prior to Philips the leading top goal scorers in the previous seasons of the Premier League were all British. Owen tied with Hasselbaink and Yorke (98-99).

Raskolnikov wrote: »

Still standing: Fernando Torres, Didier Drogba, Nicolas Anelka, Robin van Persie.

Its Torres for the taking but I can't go near it at that price. Each way on one of the others could work. But as I said, Drogba has not played enough league games for Chelsea in the last two years. While Van Persie does get rested.

Edit: Arshavin cut to 29.0 on Ladbrokes

DenMan

Royale with Cheese wrote: »

Nasri just broke his leg so Arshavin will probably have to play on the wing for the first few months of the season at least.

Arshavin's not that prolific a goalscorer either.

It's not a break, it's a fracture RwC. If it was we would be in serious trouble. Robin Van Persie would be a great bet considering the amount of chances the club create. As a club I believe we will score a lot of goals this season.

Injury free Torres would be a great bet.

x PyRo

I'd go for Van Persie.

He'll play more often this season and is over his injuries. He gets at least 4 good chances per game and if he starts being more prolific he could do really well along with Penos and Free Kicks.

I'll be backing him anyways.

Bubs101

DenMan wrote: »

It's not a break, it's a fracture RwC. If it was we would be in serious trouble. Robin Van Persie would be a great bet considering the amount of chances the club create. As a club I believe we will score a lot of goals this season.

Yeah, I think Arsenal at 9-1 is the standout preseason bet

CHD

Drogba stays fit then i fancy him for it. Jo at Everton is a nice sneaky one too.

IrishIrish

DenMan wrote: »

It's not a break, it's a fracture RwC. If it was we would be in serious trouble. Robin Van Persie would be a great bet considering the amount of chances the club create. As a club I believe we will score a lot of goals this season.

Injury free Torres would be a great bet.

In serious trouble then because a break and fracture are the same thing. They thought it would be 2 or 3 months originally but Wenger said earlier on he expects him to be back in 6 weeks.

I think Robbie Keane and Arshavin as each way bets are decent value.

soundsham

jeez i think torres is great value e/w 4/1 4 places1/4odds

surely be in top (bar injury, only risk as they all have).....stake returned at worst?

r. keane e/w is also good value at 66/1

anyone know who will be missing for african cup in jan?

drogba? ade?

Collie D

Think I noticed an ad somewhere (possibly PP) that if you pick top scorer and he scores 30 or more they'll double the odds. Long shot and I probably dreamed it but worth a thought.

mike65

Collie D wrote: »

Think I noticed an ad somewhere (possibly PP) that if you pick top scorer and he scores 30 or more they'll double the odds. Long shot and I probably dreamed it but worth a thought.

Full conditions

Net Profit!!
Enhanced Special
If you back any player to be the top Premier League goalscorer and he does so with 30 or more goals Paddy Power will double the odds on that player.

Applies to singles placed before 12.45pm Sat 15th August.
Applies to bets with stakes up to £/€100 (or the first £/€100 of bets to higher stakes).
Applies to win part of EW bets only.
Applies to Premier League goals only.
Applies to one bet per customer.
Paddy Power football rules apply.

davrho

Not a big fan of the premiership but fancy Owen ,if he stays fit, to top the scoring charts. Wont back high though as he will probably be on the treatment table by the end of August.

S.M.B.

Fergie himself came out today and said he only expects Owen to get 15 goals from 25 games which is probably in all competitions.

Can't believe the numbers who are backing Owen in this market.

mayordenis

A bit of a bump but http://www.liverpoolfc.tv/news/drilldown/N165340090807-0922.htm

Warper

Will Rooney be taking Utd's penalties now?

Gillington

mayordenis wrote: »

A bit of a bump but http://www.liverpoolfc.tv/news/drilldown/N165340090807-0922.htm

Does this apply to everyone!? I went onto PaddyPowers myslef and he's 11/4

mailburner

Gillington wrote: »

Does this apply to everyone!? I went onto PaddyPowers myslef and he's 11/4

http://www.paddypower.com/bet/novelty-betting/lfc-specials/lfc-specials?ev_oc_grp_ids=85395&cid=37&AFF_ID=10002726

mailburner

personally i like arshavin but i prefer the 9/2 available with betfred to be
arsenals top scorer
great value considering rvp is less than half that
on the other hand how rooney is 2s to be uniteds top scorer
and that owen is around the same baffles me
rooney for me by a mile
here are the past results and best prices for previous golden boot winners

2008-2009
19 anelka 25/1
18 ronaldo 7/1
16 gerrard 16/1

2007-2008
31 ronaldo 14/1
24 adebayor + torres 40s/16s

2006-2007
20 drogba 20/1
18 mc carthy 100/1
17 ronaldo 200/1 (looks amazing now doesnt it)

2005-2006
27 henry 23/10
21 v nist 13/2
16 d bent 125/1

2004-2005
25 henry 100/3
21 johnson 150/1
14 pires 200/1

2003-2004
30 henry 4/1
22 shearer 16/1
20 saha 150/1

2002-2003
nistelr 5/1
henry 7/1
beattie 100/1

2001-2002
henry 10/1
hasselbaink/shear/nistel 6s/33s/8s

pandyx

I'll try not to make a complete arse out of myself on my first post but I like the following:

Anelka -14's: Bigger price than Drogba and is just as likely to score plenty

Defoe - 25's: Most natural finisher in the league imo (like Fowler was in his day) and Harry loves him so will play more than Crouch & Pav. Despite playing for spurs will get plenty of chances.

Arshavin - 25's: Not sure if I would pay much attention to his Zenit form. Wengers a bit of a legend at spotting goalscorers and had a little time to get used to the Prem last season. He's genuninely a quality player.

Bent - 40's: I know I know but he does have a half a decent ratio and will most certainly play every game....Kevin Phillips did it a few years ago at Sunderland...

Anyway...I liked Owen at 25's when he first signed but cant back him at 12's.