10% unemployed = 450,000 ppl roughly

Johnny86

is it just me or do these numbers sound odd.

assuming they dont take into account people under 18 and over a certain age too (65 or whenever you start getting pension), does this not equate to a much higher population of rep. of ireland.
maybe im missing something

leeroybrown

Anyone of age 15 or over is considered to be available for work as they can legally do so. I'm not 100% sure how they factor out older people. The current 'standardised seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate' is 11.9% (413,500 people). That means that the workforce is just under 3.5m. The problem is that the figures get mis-used as they're quoted in the media for maximum effect without any real reference to the underlying statistical basis.

eirebhoy

Population of Ireland between ages 15-64 in 2006 was 2.9m.

http://www.cso.ie/statistics/popnbyage2006.htm

So from that age group, unemployment of 450k = 15.5%.

(or 14.3% going by leeroybrown's seasonally adjusted figure)

Johnny86

So can people claim some dole (not the full amount) from 15 years old on?
we could all hazard a guess at why the figures aren't adding up...people not living here but still claiming!!

Xiney

that's not why the figures aren't adding up.

It's because the live register is not a perfect number of unemployed people: some people are underemployed (working short time weeks) and are thus on the register, but aren't considered unemployed.

Gurgle

Johnny86 wrote: »

we could all hazard a guess at why the figures aren't adding up...people not living here but still claiming!!

Wow, 4 posts before it gets pinned on "dem foreigners".

Johnny86

Gurgle wrote: »

Wow, 4 posts before it gets pinned on "dem foreigners".

Well i was thinking along the lines of some irish working in other countries but still managing to get the dole here..some buddy signing on for them

Gurgle

Johnny86 wrote: »

Well i was thinking along the lines of some irish working in other countries but still managing to get the dole here..some buddy signing on for them

Why then sir, I apologise for my inferral.

Though I doubt there are enough frauds of that particular type to significantly skew the figures.

Johnny86

only messing..of course i was tryin to pin it down on em foreigners!

but these figures still dont add up to me. if 11% or whatever is equal to that much, then 100% gives you the total available workforce of ireland which to me seems to be coming close to the total populaiton of ireland..

bloody stats can be altered to whatever way you like!!

leeroybrown

Johnny86 wrote: »

So can people claim some dole (not the full amount) from 15 years old on?

No. You have to be 18. Under the age of 18 any welfare payment would come by way of a parent/guardian or through some other state sponsored scheme. People aged 15 and older are included as they can legally take a part-time job.

eirebhoy wrote: »

Population of Ireland between ages 15-64 in 2006 was 2.9m.

It's not calculated based on those between 15 and 64. There are plenty of people who are in employment well into their 70's. I'd suggest that all people aged 65 or over might even be included on the basis that they're legally capable of working should they chose to do so. Given a workforce of 3.5m people in my calculation above I'd suggest that this may well be the case.

As I pointed out above, the important thing is the statistical basis. It's fairly easy to change the denominator of the statistic to make the figure look much worse.

Johnny86

like a man in othopeadic shoes, i stand corrected!!:)

Ardent

Johnny86 wrote: »

only messing..of course i was tryin to pin it down on em foreigners!

Nice one. I snorted out laughing at that!

gurramok

The Labour Force survey lags the Live Register by at least 3 months hence the discrepancy!

Cicero

Not really sure what the unemployment rate actually means today compared to 15/20 years ago- don't think there is any clear way of comparing like-with-like-

just over 20 years ago, we had approx 16% unemployment rate but with mass emigration to the USA, AUS, UK etc at this time (think it was 80K a year at one stage) , this figure would have been far higher than the actual rate quoted had people stayed in Ireland- with less chance of moving abroad to seek gainful employment this time round due to world recession, maybe the stats quoted this time are more realistic of the actual situation (but still very very frightening) - I heard a figure of 2 million people currently employed in Ireland right now on 'RTE's Morning Ireland' the other day so not sure how that fits with stats quoted on this thread- only thing I'm sure of, no matter how its calculated, current levels of 11-12% unemployment rates isn't good.

leeroybrown

gurramok wrote: »

The Labour Force survey lags the Live Register by at least 3 months hence the discrepancy!

True, but not the kind of discrepancy that the OP was thinking of.

Cicero wrote: »

Not really sure what the unemployment rate actually means today compared to 15/20 years ago- don't think there is any clear way of comparing like-with-like-

The 'live register' as we know it has been around since 1989. That gives us a decent 20 years of comparable statistics. While the 'labour force' statistic does lag it as mentioned above it will reflect emigration relatively well over time. While the CSO statistics are routinely misused and misquoted they're statistically solid in their own right.

Cicero wrote: »

I heard a figure of 2 million people currently employed in Ireland right now on 'RTE's Morning Ireland' the other day so not sure how that fits with stats quoted on this thread

That should be approximately correct. It may even have dropped marginally under 2m given the increase in the live register along with increase emigration and reduced immigration.