Houses

Blue_Wolf

What's the prediction on houses?

I'm looking to buy in a years time or so. When do they think they are going to hit the bottom and than start going back up?

A lot of people are saying 2 years on average but I'm looking for someone who works in the area and has an idea....

Senna

Read this thread;
When will the property market bottom out

As for asking someone in the industry, thats probably the worse thing you could do, they will have a VESTED INTEREST in people buying houses, as their job relies on it.
If you want to know if smoking was bad for you, would you ask a tobacco company?

zootroid

Blue_Wolf wrote: »

What's the prediction on houses?

I'm looking to buy in a years time or so. When do they think they are going to hit the bottom and than start going back up?

A lot of people are saying 2 years on average but I'm looking for someone who works in the area and has an idea....

1. Stay well clear of anyone with a vested interest. I think I remember someone on the news representing auctioneers saying a couple of months ago that the market has bottomed out. Obviously it's in their interests for people to start buying again.

2. Look out for the indicators where you intend to buy. Even if the market as a whole starts to improve, there are bound to be huge variances between the different areas within the country. For example, Dublin might start to recover first, and the rest of the country lag behind for a few years.

Finally, even if I were in a position to buy at the moment, I certainly wouldn't. But that's mainly because I think prices are still far too high, and I don't see any value There hasn't been enough pain in this recession yet. The "boom" was built on a property bubble, but developers are still surviving. Until a good few of them start going under (by which time they will accept anything to get rid of their properties) I wouldn't dream of buying.

Just my 2 cents.

harsea8

I'd agree with previous posters that you won't get an honest answer from anyone working in the business. However, I also think that you have to take any advice you receive on these boards (even mine) with a grain of salt as the reality is that we can only guess when it will bottom out. My recommendation would be to buy if you feel you want/need to buy (eg, because of expanding family, children reaching school age). The reason I say this is because if you are buying a "home" to live in for the foreseeable future rather than a "house" to live in for a while and then trade up, the booms and busts are in some ways immaterial.

Having said all of the above, one thing I would say is that I think the old saying that "location is everything" will be even more relevant in the current and future market. I think the bottom hasn't been reached, but some houses have a lot farther to fall than others because they are just in a sh*t location. This is particularly true for many of the new developments that have popped up all over the place in recent years.

I guess what I am saying is that if you want/need to buy in a years time do so, but be choosy about where you buy, don't just buy the cheapest house

gurramok

Wait for value as it has not arrived yet. Everywhere is still overpriced.

Some houses are still asking for 300k in junkie central, corpo houses are also still asking for 300k, alot of apts are asking 300k as standard, now ask yourself is that value?

Sponge Bob

Bottom is around 2 years away , maybe more . That would be in the larger cities where maybe 12%-15% of the housing stock is lying empty right now and where much of it will end up in the claws of NAMA .

Outside the larger cities up to a third of the housing stock is lying empty , eg in Leitrim .

God knows when the bottom will hit there.

The OP is advised to concentrate on saving hard in the interim because the banks will only be giving around 70%-80% mortgages by then.

Blue_Wolf

Thanks guys

That's some really good advice you all gave. Ya I have saved up a good lump sum of cash 30k to be exact which would cover 10-15% of the mortgage. I'm single and only 23 years old so don't need it for expansion of family etc. Just have been waiting for 2 years to buy and starting to become an itch as the place I'm living in isn't nice.

Reason being that I'm asking the question is that I want value for money and want a property for the future. In other words not a 1 bedroom apartment, looking for 3 bedroom house.

So 1 year to 2 years, at least I can keep saving and maybe hit 20% off mortgage

who what when

Blue_Wolf wrote: »

Thanks guys

That's some really good advice you all gave. Ya I have saved up a good lump sum of cash 30k to be exact which would cover 10-15% of the mortgage. I'm single and only 23 years old so don't need it for expansion of family etc. Just have been waiting for 2 years to buy and starting to become an itch as the place I'm living in isn't nice.

Reason being that I'm asking the question is that I want value for money and want a property for the future. In other words not a 1 bedroom apartment, looking for 3 bedroom house.

So 1 year to 2 years, at least I can keep saving and maybe hit 20% off mortgage

Wow thats a very impressive position for a 23 year old to be in!!
Fair play

Blue_Wolf

Thanks but no matter how much money you have you will always think that it's not enough :rolleyes:

Sponge Bob

Blue_Wolf wrote: »

Thanks but no matter how much money you have you will always think that it's not enough :rolleyes:

Well done for the saving so far. I strongly urge you to consider having 25%-30% of the price saved because I think mortgage indemnity bonds are coming back with a bang for those who have less than 25% of the price up front . This will cost you dear if you are on the margins .

This cost is hidden within the overall mortgage package in recent years but was an explicit cost in years gone by , it is not certainly payable on loans of 70% or less of the price of the property , sometimes 80% and sometimes 75% depending on the bank etc .

Also make sure you save a bit with each bank that looks like it might give you a loan , do not put your eggs in one basket .

You have nothing to fear about over the next two years , price wise , quite possibly as many as 4 years but certainly 2 .

Keep saving !!

Blue_Wolf

Thanks Spongebob for the sound advice, will keep it in consideration.

AlekSmart

I wonder if Blue Wolf and others in that position might be gainfully employed questioning whether they need to BUY a house at all.

As other posters have pointed out the falls in the market have already commenced,but mainly in the "Bubble" developments which were facilitated by our crooked Political system.

Travel for example out towards Dundalk and check out the apartment and town-house developments now sporting asking prices sub 190K...It`s a start but there are now so many of them and so few who want to buy that its a static market.

I personally feel that this country represents a very dangerous place for any young person to contemplate as a full-time base right now.

If I had the gift of youth once again I would be looking abroad to locations where my skills might allow a better chance of regaining a confidence in life,something which is rapidly draining from the Irish phsyche.

The sheer emotional and even physical trauma of locking oneself into a 30 year mortgage situation on a 3 Bed Semi somewhere in Commuter Belt Dublin is scary to me.

It is almost as if much of our national effort is going into picking up where we left off when the recession ends.......just look at the "First Time Buyer" focus in many of the public pronouncements of both Financial and Political leaders....

Wake up and smell the (Irish) Coffee ????

W123-80's

AlekSmart wrote: »

I wonder if Blue Wolf and others in that position might be gainfully employed questioning whether they need to BUY a house at all.

As other posters have pointed out the falls in the market have already commenced,but mainly in the "Bubble" developments which were facilitated by our crooked Political system.

Travel for example out towards Dundalk and check out the apartment and town-house developments now sporting asking prices sub 190K...It`s a start but there are now so many of them and so few who want to buy that its a static market.

I personally feel that this country represents a very dangerous place for any young person to contemplate as a full-time base right now.

If I had the gift of youth once again I would be looking abroad to locations where my skills might allow a better chance of regaining a confidence in life,something which is rapidly draining from the Irish phsyche.

The sheer emotional and even physical trauma of locking oneself into a 30 year mortgage situation on a 3 Bed Semi somewhere in Commuter Belt Dublin is scary to me.

It is almost as if much of our national effort is going into picking up where we left off when the recession ends.......just look at the "First Time Buyer" focus in many of the public pronouncements of both Financial and Political leaders....

Wake up and smell the (Irish) Coffee ????

Good post.

Alot of late 20's and early 30's irish people still seem to be of the opinion that they have got to buy a house. Regardless of their financial status.

I firmly believe we need to take a step back and really consider what is important. (Quality of life, schools etc..)

I see no issue with renting once it is affordable. The whole "must own your own property" mentality is nuts considering the quality and location of some of these properties.

A complete change of mindset is required which will not happen overnight.

I know this is probably a wishy washy post, but I guess what I'm trying to articulate is that those individuals lucky enough to have avoided the noose of a 30-35 year mortgage in the last 4-5 years should consider taking a step back. Relax. Rent and save a few quid.

I hope one of the lessons learned from this great big recession mess is that owning your own propery no matter the cost is not the most important thing in life.

harsea8

W123-80's wrote: »

Good post.

Alot of late 20's and early 30's irish people still seem to be of the opinion that they have got to buy a house. Regardless of their financial status.

I firmly believe we need to take a step back and really consider what is important. (Quality of life, schools etc..)

I see no issue with renting once it is affordable. The whole "must own your own property" mentality is nuts considering the quality and location of some of these properties.

A complete change of mindset is required which will not happen overnight.

I know this is probably a wishy washy post, but I guess what I'm trying to articulate is that those individuals lucky enough to have avoided the noose of a 30-35 year mortgage in the last 4-5 years should consider taking a step back. Relax. Rent and save a few quid.

I hope one of the lessons learned from this great big recession mess is that owning your own propery no matter the cost is not the most important thing in life.

Although I totally agree with most of your post and, given my time again, I don't think I would have bought property when and where I did, I think a lot of people look to buy vs. rent as traditionally (note that I am not saying this will happen moving forwards) a home/house has given much better returns over 25-30 years than putting money into a saving account. For example, for my parents generation, property was a great way to give yourself a nest egg for retirement as they bought in early 70s and sold mid-90s at a huge (and I mean huge) profit that they got 100% of (as they had paid off mortgage). With so many people struggling to put any money from their salary into a pension and the probability that the state pension will be worth sh*t all in 20-30 years time, it is perhaps not surprising that some people (rightly or wrongly) might still see owning a property as a good LONG-term investment for retirement. Whether or not it turns out to be a good investment for those of us who have bought into the circus, remains to be seen

Blue_Wolf

W123-80's wrote: »

I see no issue with renting once it is affordable. The whole "must own your own property" mentality is nuts considering the quality and location of some of these properties.

The main reason why I have my heart on buying is not so much for "investment" but to have something in the future, kind of like a security. Although, being tied down for 30 odd years is quite daunting.

Maybe I'm wrong but maybe the best idea for those in my position is to buy in with a best friend?!

I agree with you that your quality of life is more important than buying. ie rent and have more money etc. But in the future you will hit a wall.

My very good friend lives with his mother. She doesn't own the house, just renting. He is 27years old. If he moves out than his mother can't afford to pay the rent. He's left in a very awkward position. That scares me. All that money they have spent on rent over 20-30 years and they have nothing to show for but for a pleasant lifestyle for last 20-30years?

The Hubby left when he was 6 and he has an older brother who moved out leaving the 2 of them. Sad really

W123-80's

Blue_Wolf wrote: »

The main reason why I have my heart on buying is not so much for "investment" but to have something in the future, kind of like a security. Although, being tied down for 30 odd years is quite daunting.

Maybe I'm wrong but maybe the best idea for those in my position is to buy in with a best friend?!

I agree with you that your quality of life is more important than buying. ie rent and have more money etc. But in the future you will hit a wall.

My very good friend lives with his mother. She doesn't own the house, just renting. He is 27years old. If he moves out than his mother can't afford to pay the rent. He's left in a very awkward position. That scares me. All that money they have spent on rent over 20-30 years and they have nothing to show for but for a pleasant lifestyle for last 20-30years?

The Hubby left when he was 6 and he has an older brother who moved out leaving the 2 of them. Sad really

To be fair, you strike me as a pretty well grounded chap and your reasons for buying are sound.
You have saved the cash and I get the feeling you are not intending to dive feet first into the first deal you encounter.

As other posters have said, its hard know whose opinion to trust in relation to property. If you find an affordable property that ticks all your boxes, go for it. If that is what will make you happy.

Best of luck whatever you decide to do.:)

Blue_Wolf

I haven't received a compliment in a long time, you have made my day

W123-80's wrote: »

To be fair, you strike me as a pretty well grounded chap and your reasons for buying are sound.
You have saved the cash and I get the feeling you are not intending to dive feet first into the first deal you encounter.

As other posters have said, its hard know whose opinion to trust in relation to property. If you find an affordable property that ticks all your boxes, go for it. If that is what will make you happy.

Best of luck whatever you decide to do.:)

big b

saw, or rather half saw on RTE news at lunchtime, bank of ireland were saying mortgage applications were the highest in 6 months (which maybe isn't saying a lot!) and that 4 out of 5 mortgage applications were successful.

Seems like positive news - relatively positive anyway.
My own advice to anyone thinking of buying is exactly the same as it was 10 years ago:
Don't overstretch yourself
Location. Location. Location.

Best of luck to Bluewolf!

Sand

My own advice would be to wait - right now interest rates are extremely low. Germany and France are going to recover long before Ireland does. When that happens interest rates will go back up again. Drastically to cut off inflation threats.

You're better off waiting because:

A) If you think property owners are wailing right now, wait till theyve been made unemployed and their mortgages are back up to 1800 euro per month. You'll pick up some bargains when the banks start to toss people out and auction them for whatever they are worth (**** all...)

You will have a better idea of if you can actually sustain a mortgage during a peak interest rate period. Better you know before you go in than 12 months later on when you suddenly find yourself under pressure.

AlekSmart

My very good friend lives with his mother. She doesn't own the house, just renting. He is 27years old. If he moves out than his mother can't afford to pay the rent. He's left in a very awkward position. That scares me. All that money they have spent on rent over 20-30 years and they have nothing to show for but for a pleasant lifestyle for last 20-30years?

That Scary position is the sadly typical result of the Irish manifestation of "Rental" in property terms.
IF we had a properly administered and regulated Rental market that type of scenario would not be typical.

However,since this State has for decades supported and skewed the Housing market in favour of single-ownership purchasing we are left with a frighteningly under-developed Private Rental sector.

TJJP

Maybe see this:

http://www.bankofireland.ie/html/gws/includes/investor/pdfs/debt_investor/irisheconomy_overview_0509.pdf

and this:

http://ftp.ncb.ie/economics/HousingReport2003.pdf

and these:

Spudmonkey

Sand wrote: »

My own advice would be to wait - right now interest rates are extremely low. Germany and France are going to recover long before Ireland does. When that happens interest rates will go back up again. Drastically to cut off inflation threats.

You're better off waiting because:

A) If you think property owners are wailing right now, wait till theyve been made unemployed and their mortgages are back up to 1800 euro per month. You'll pick up some bargains when the banks start to toss people out and auction them for whatever they are worth (**** all...)

You will have a better idea of if you can actually sustain a mortgage during a peak interest rate period. Better you know before you go in than 12 months later on when you suddenly find yourself under pressure.

I agree, I think the market is a long long way away from bottoming out, anyone who buys a house now is going to buy themselves negative equity. Best thing to do is to wait a year or so, see how the job is going, if the international market has levelled out or not and the job is more secure, if it is and houses are signicantly cheaper, then might be the time to take the plunge...

Firetrap

Aside from houses still being overpriced in my view, I think a lot of people are holding off on big purchases because of worries about the security of their jobs and uncertainty about what they're going to be earning. There can't be many people in this country who are now earning more money after taxes/levies/pay cuts than they were this time last year. As time goes on, who knows what could happen. More taxes/levies/pay cuts? Or even unemployment. Even public servants aren't safe. The market has a long way to go yet.

Mr.Micro

Houses are still way overpriced and do not reflect the state of our economy and infrastructure. Interest rates at all time lows but in the near future will start to rise again. Do not believe any hype from estate agents. Do your research.

irish_bob

even allowing for the fact that banks are not lending , jobs are being lost etc , you also have to take into consideration the sea change in attitude to property , throughout this decade , property was seen as a stepping stone to wealth , now its seen as a boulder around you neck to poverty

Sponge Bob

AlekSmart wrote: »

That Scary position is the sadly typical result of the Irish manifestation of "Rental" in property terms.
IF we had a properly administered and regulated Rental market that type of scenario would not be typical.

That woman could not have afforded a mortgage either and would have qualified for social housing but evidently did not apply for it .

Spudmonkey

irish_bob wrote: »

throughout this decade , property was seen as a stepping stone to wealth , now its seen as a boulder around you neck to poverty

Well phrased

qwytre

W123-80's wrote: »

I guess what I'm trying to articulate is that those individuals lucky enough to have avoided the noose of a 30-35 year mortgage in the last 4-5 years should consider taking a step back. Relax. Rent and save a few quid.

A point to remember is that a lot of those people who took mortgages out in the last 4-5 years got tracker mortgages on very good margins. e.g. I have a tracker mortgage at a margin of 0.55% so my mortgage rate is currently 1.55%. You won't get much below 3% these days and tracker mortgages are rare if they are being offered at all.

This makes the cost of borrowing today more expensive.

gpjordanf1

If your going to hold onto your house for a number of years, then the smart thing to do is buy your own home.
I bought my home 8 years ago, when we moved in first, we couldn't afford a tin of beans, honestly.
Now today our mortgage is a small bill amongst others. We can offord to live a comfortable life, but not a lavish lifestyle. But we are happy, it's OUR family home, we have our first baby, 6 months now, and its her HOME!
What makes me say this to you is, I couldn't rent my house now for what my mortgage costs me, its actually 33% more expensive. Imagine that!
Now you can spend the next few years saving and wondering when to jump, its up to you. I didn't take the jump till I was 30. I regret that so much today!
Also my bro in law is buying a house this week, was 235k last year, he got it for 150k, with a little advice from me. I think thats a fantastic deal. He's 25 BTW, saved a bit for the past few years too.
Dont get me wrong its a big step with alot of risks, but if you've got secure employment and can afford the payments including for higher interest rates in the future, then go for it!
One way I got my payments down was to pay in 3-5k anually, take that off the principal and you dont pay interest on that amount. Sweet!
I'm not in the industry BTW, just giving you a real life experience. My regret is not buying sooner.
Just my 2 cents

Firetrap

One difference between when you bought and now is that your wages probably went up every year or so. Now they're decreasing and the tax relief is reducing as well.

gurramok

gpjordanf1 wrote: »

If your going to hold onto your house for a number of years, then the smart thing to do is buy your own home.
I bought my home 8 years ago, when we moved in first, we couldn't afford a tin of beans, honestly.
Now today our mortgage is a small bill amongst others. We can offord to live a comfortable life, but not a lavish lifestyle. But we are happy, it's OUR family home, we have our first baby, 6 months now, and its her HOME!
What makes me say this to you is, I couldn't rent my house now for what my mortgage costs me, its actually 33% more expensive. Imagine that!
Now you can spend the next few years saving and wondering when to jump, its up to you. I didn't take the jump till I was 30. I regret that so much today!
Also my bro in law is buying a house this week, was 235k last year, he got it for 150k, with a little advice from me. I think thats a fantastic deal. He's 25 BTW, saved a bit for the past few years too.
Dont get me wrong its a big step with alot of risks, but if you've got secure employment and can afford the payments including for higher interest rates in the future, then go for it!
One way I got my payments down was to pay in 3-5k anually, take that off the principal and you dont pay interest on that amount. Sweet!
I'm not in the industry BTW, just giving you a real life experience. My regret is not buying sooner.
Just my 2 cents

Nice story. You bought in 2001, good time to do it. Did you get a tracker/var or fixed?
Your bro got a good deal it appears, but not many gaffs going for 150k in the urban areas hence its still too pricey for urban dwellers to jump in and buy.

gpjordanf1

Firetrap wrote: »

One difference between when you bought and now is that your wages probably went up every year or so. Now they're decreasing and the tax relief is reducing as well.

I was made redundant last November, then we had our baby, my wife doesn't get maternity pay as were both private sector, then we lost mortgage interest relief, so all in all our income was down 70%. But we got through it, i managed to get another job, 35% less than last years wages, a meeting this month to discuss redundancys, last in first out. So we've been to the bottom and back and survived.

gurramok wrote: »

Nice story. You bought in 2001, good time to do it. Did you get a tracker/var or fixed?
Your bro got a good deal it appears, but not many gaffs going for 150k in the urban areas hence its still too pricey for urban dwellers to jump in and buy.

Started on var and switched to tracker, brilliant decision!
My bro in law is buying in an urdan area, town down west, theres more appearing in this price range, nearly equivelant to 2003 prices down here, so we figured now is a good time to buy, plus hes been looking for 18 months.

Sponge Bob

tell him to wait another year before he buys

Boggle

Nobody can answer your question until at least december because the extent of the decline is subject to things like property taxes and NAMA.

The real key to the whole mess is the property tax as its a new entrant to the market - as it discourages holding property and it is very unlikely that landlords will be able to recover it from tenants (it would take my rent from 650 to750 for example and thats not happening). Basically people like my landlords who want to sell but were waiting until they could get more money will have their hands forced quicker which will drop the price.

And thats not even considering all of FF's buddies which will be fed estates by NAMA at heavily discounted rates so that they can be completed and priced to sell quickly. (Who else is going to finish off these estates?)

All bets are off, but if you haveteh cash then get mortgage approval soon so you are read when the sh1t hits the fan and you get your bargain.

Blue_Wolf

Ya I think I wil hold off a year or 2. Another concern of mine is that the houses that were built during the boom I fear were not built very well as they were rushing to build them so to sell them.

DTrotter

Sorry to drag this off topic but what do people think the chances are that people who bought at or near the peak will be able to sell anywhere near what they bought them for?

Small Change

Probably not anytime in the next 10 years

nesf

gurramok wrote: »

but not many gaffs going for 150k in the urban areas hence its still too pricey for urban dwellers to jump in and buy.

I've seen quite a few properties in Cork listed around 200K which equates to something closer to 150K given market conditions. Not in any nice areas or anything but prices (at least out of Dublin) are returning to some sense of normality. They'll overshoot on the downside though, so even if a property right now looks reasonably priced you can pretty much expect it to look cheap in a year or two.

nesf

DTrotter wrote: »

Sorry to drag this off topic but what do people think the chances are that people who bought at or near the peak will be able to sell anywhere near what they bought them for?

In real terms (adjusted for inflation) almost certainly not. In nominal terms (not adjusted for inflation) then yes probably so long as they can afford to hold onto them for a decade or more. That said 300K today will be worth a hell of a lot more than 300K in a decade, so these people still lose out even if the nominal house price recovers.

gurramok

nesf wrote: »

I've seen quite a few properties in Cork listed around 200K which equates to something closer to 150K given market conditions. Not in any nice areas or anything but prices (at least out of Dublin) are returning to some sense of normality. They'll overshoot on the downside though, so even if a property right now looks reasonably priced you can pretty much expect it to look cheap in a year or two.

I'm not familiar with cork and i'm not sure if you're familiar with Dublin

There are a small number of 150k 1bed properties in dodgy areas in Dublin right now(i'm not naming them in case of flame war! :P)

What i meant is that there should be properties(not shoeboxes) priced at 150k to maybe 200k in average areas for average workers to buy.

At the mo in Dublin, if we look at houses especially, they are still asking 300k+ in dodgeville both city centre(maybe expected in certain degrees) but an awful lot in the burbs still are.

That says to me that it will need two working professionals on maybe 35k each at the usual 4.5 times salary to afford these and that is simply wrong.

2 hard working people should not have the only opportunity to afford a house where that house in an area like a junkie infected slum.

Hence there is no demand for these and they will continue to fall in price. Same goes for decent to upmarket areas where quite frankly the salaries do not reflect the asking prices.

sneakyST

I bought in 2001 and have gone sale agreed recently as myself and the family have decided to upsticks to the UK.
I let it go for 20k more than I paid for it.Why? When I bought it wasnt an investment - it was a home. We did discuss selling it in the peak - but was dismissed quickly as we saw oursleves in the house for many more years. Its a large 3 bed semi with an 80 ft garden in Dublin.

Circumstance change -so now we want a deposit for our next house. As soon as people forget about being millionaires and drop the prices to what people can afford then the better. However a lot of people seem to be stubborn.
My neighbours went to see a house in Lepordstown the other day - 3 bed - 600k .....I said to them - do you realize how close it is to a million? It dawned on them a bit (i hope).
As for the renting- I will rent for a while over there as I think prices have to drop there too, but I think buying is the only option long term for me. With baby number 2 on the way you just cant leave yourself open to an LL if he decides to sell and you cant do anythin to the property - extensions etc. Doesnt make sense to me but thats my opinion.
Everyone has a right to own a property (its in the constitution) but people need to realize they dont have a right to make a silly amount of money flipping it.

j1smithy

My opinion would be to research the price of a house/property of the area you're interested in 1996-2000. Find that price vs the average industrial wage ath that time, and when we fall back to those levels or at least close to, I would be inclined to take the jump. I agree it could be a few years till it happens, as developers are sitting on properties not willing to let any go at a loss (as it would be unsustainable). It will take the intervention of NAMA to bring the whole market back into line and get the glut of unsold properties off the market and being lived in. There will be great value to be had in holiday homes in the midlands in a few years as this is where the majority of the uninhabitable (in the long term sense) are located.

Gurgle

TJJP wrote: »

these:

They're very informative graphs, providing a strong indication that it was never a bubble.
House price index is a classic example of an under-damped system.

silverharp

from the Mish blog, conclusions most bubbles blow out in similar ways , Japan , US , Ireland.

Edit: just to clarify the comments are in relation to the US

Gurgle

silverharp wrote: »

from the Mish blog, conclusions most bubbles blow out in similar ways , Japan , US , Ireland.

Look at the 'knee' on the Japan graph ~1987, where the rate of increase in prices picked up sharply.
You can see the matching part of the 'bubble' graph - but where is it on the 'Ireland' graph?
We had a steady continuous rise up to ~ march '05, then that knee shows up and the pace picks up *somewhat* until the peak at the end of '06. Then a steady roll-off, no sudden drops.

I can't find any historical data for Irelands average household income over the same period. T'would be interesting to compare that graph to our house price index.

-edit- GNP 2003-2009, best I could do.

Whos going to tell me this has nothing to do with house prices?

silverharp

Gurgle wrote: »

Look at the 'knee' on the Japan graph ~1987, where the rate of increase in prices picked up sharply.
You can see the matching part of the 'bubble' graph - but where is it on the 'Ireland' graph?
We had a steady continuous rise up to ~ march '05, then that knee shows up and the pace picks up *somewhat* until the peak at the end of '06. Then a steady roll-off, so sudden drops.

I can't find any historical data for Irelands average household income over the same period. T'would be interesting to compare that graph to our house price index.

I just added above that the comments were related to the US market. Every market will have different "wiggles" and the Japan market will probably drag out over more years then the US.