non scentific methods of weather forecasting

IMBACKLATER

i found this recently, a discussion on non scentific methods of weather forecasting, do we think that these methods are accurate or of any worth, the discussion was broadcast on rte radio one in relation to what kind of summer 2009 will be, evelyn cusack was one of the guests, like many i was appauled at her arrogance and sheer ignorance and her general rudeness. she lives in dun laoghaire so no surprise really.

heres the link

http://lecraic.posterous.com/irish-summer-weather-prediction-2009

M.T. Cranium

Probably to be fair, alternative theories of weather prediction (in the longer range, mainly) are better described as "unproven" than "non-scientific" ... and this is more relevant when you consider that there are no absolutely reliable scientific methods of predicting the weather beyond seven (wait for it) days (you thought I was going to say minutes, right?).

The reality is that meteorology is an empirical science that relies on accurate data collection and reasonable numerical analysis using past histories for guidance -- it is about as much a "science" as your daily estimate of when (and with how much bother) you might expect to arrive at work, given what time you left home, what route you plan to take, etc.

Alternative methods are not technically "non-scientific" but involve a science that is not proven or accepted. There would be non-scientific ways, but folklore or lunar positions are not quite among those. A good example of a non-scientific method would be to pick at random a past year and use that for your prediction, without any reason. Or another non-scientific method would be to ask somebody with no knowledge of past Irish summers to take a wild guess. Along those lines, I am predicting a near-normal to slightly warmer than average summer (on the whole) with spells of wet and dry averaging out near normal.

As to the arrogance of anyone from the weather establishment, this can be legendary, they will be the last to allow that any alternative methods could be promising. For one thing, alternative methods may cast doubt on the new global religion of climate change (almost invariably, people with alternative theories are AGW skeptics). For another thing, the national weather services thrive on the illusion that only they can accurately predict the weather. Not that I am saying they can't, because by and large they do a reasonable job, but others can also do a reasonable job and perhaps in some cases are more approachable too.

Now, as to conventional methods of long-range forecasting, let's say on the seasonal time scale, the preferred methods rely on large-scale global analysis, comparison to similar set-ups in past years, with sea surface temperature anomalies given considerable importance. The recent solar minimum is too new and too unusual a quirk of nature to have gained much imporrtance in these circles, but many quite traditional people in meteorology seem to be aware that the temperature baselines have recently fallen back somewhat from the inflated levels they were running at before summer of 2007. I have been in this field for many years and my personal opinion is that both conventional and alternative methods are improving in recent years. It is not exactly Usain Bolt vs the American track team, more like the 50-km walk, but it is a determined race to a finish line that nobody can quite see or even define.

By the way, what did the folklorist have to say about the summer? I think with those sorts of indicators, there may well be hidden science that we just don't fully understand, although I am also open to the skeptical viewpoint that says that folklore signs are based on past weather and are not indicators of future weather.

Some things come pretty much out of the blue. Over this side of the ocean, almost everyone in weather circles (and that number is pretty inflated) was expecting cold weather from November and early December to continue until past New Years. I think it's fair to say that 90% were quite surprised when it suddenly warmed to above normal for a few weeks. Then almost as many were surprised when it went back to below normal in January, and above again in February. By the time it was all said and done, only one concept was left standing, namely, that nobody really has that much of a clue. Where I live, we were basking in unseasonable warmth in early December, then we were hit with six weeks of record cold and heavy snow, and this came as a complete surprise to most people; the atmosphere did a sudden flip-flop and pattern change was very large and very fast. Those sorts of changes are very hard to predict, and hard to find convincing reasons in most theories.